I have two answers. One idea is radical but it would work.
Answer One: Do nothing
Tariffs are a tax on consumers. So it Trump want to be raise taxes on US consumers, then let him.
And if he wants to make the US an island, them let him. Besides, it’s impossible to negotiate with someone who cannot be trusted to honor any deal he makes.
Vietnam thought Trump agreed to 11 percent tariffs only to discover the deal was really 20 percent.
It’s best to ignore Trump, or perhaps praise him. But offering concessions seems to do nothing but get trump demanding more concessions.
Given tariffs are a tax on consumers, so are tariff retaliations.
If your neighbor blows off his foot, do you really want to do the same?
Answer Two: Retaliate by More than Trump Can Take
This is much easier for China than any other country. Trump deescalated tariffs on China when China blocked rare earth exports.
Mexico and Canada could block exports of auto parts. Canada has oil the US needs.
Mexico provides most of the hospital kits for the US. Blocking those kits would cause shortages and negatively impact patient care. It would also cause delays in treatments and compromise patient safety.
Canada and Mexico are also leading exporters of copper to the US. And Canada is the largest Aluminum exporter to the US.
What If?
The EU is dysfunctional, but what if China, Mexico, and Canada coordinated by shutting down exports of rare earth elements, copper, aluminum, auto parts, oil, and medical kits?
It’s an economic form of MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction. However, in this case, threats don’t work. To achieve the desired result, you actually have to pull the trigger.
CHMCA (China, Mexico, and Canada) could force Trump to put tariffs at zero percent or the US economy would implode.
Trump would fold in one second flat because the US would grind to a halt immediately.
Tariff retaliations are like shooting yourself in the foot with higher taxes. But export controls are another matter because of the speed at which Trump would fold.
Q: On what grounds could nations implement export controls?
A: National security of course
Trump uses that for whatever reasons he wants, so why shouldn’t everyone else?
Related Posts
April 13, 2025: China Halts Rare Earth Exports Desperately Needed by the US
I have been warning about this for years. It’s now happening.
June 5, 2025: Two-TACO Trump Day on His Call to Xi Over Rare Earth Elements
Trump is hyping up his call with China’s Xi. But chalk up 2 more TACOs.
June 12, 2025: China Keeps Leverage on the US with a 6-Month Limit on Rare Earth Exports
Trump’s crowing over a new deal is more hype than reality in 3 ways.
Now, imagine simultaneous shutdown of rare earths, copper, aluminum, auto parts, and medical kits.
Tarriffs can level the playing field if one side is dumping low cost exports. China is the biggest offender and might be giving many a pass because there is no US mfg’s making it, it’s complicated. One example is you can’t buy USA lamb meat in stores because some stupid trade deal with Australia and NZ. Farmers have less choices so do consumers. Brazil is exporting beef at 2-3 a pound no wonder farmers are complaining they aren’t being represented by good government policy.
I think absorbitant tariifs can work just about as well and they do not “break” the National Security” system by using flase pretences as Trump has done.
There is a third, less drastic option, which is what the EU did last time around and are considering again — that is to target products which will create the most blow-back specifically with the MAGA and Republican base; without going full throttle retaliation.
This is essentially what Canada has done already.
This info is from Briefing.com. Bullet points 3 and 4 of particular interest.
Ramaco Resources to crash the rare earth party; bullish feasibility report/interview (METC)
Ramaco Resources (METC +12%) is making a strong move following a bullish interview on CNBC for its CEO Randall Atkins. Today’s move extends the momentum we have seen in its share price over the past month or so. Investors are getting excited about Ramaco because it’s transitioning from being a supplier of met coal (used to make steel) to becoming a producer of rare earth elements (REE) and critical minerals, specifically at its Brook Mine in Wyoming.
Ramaco announced the rare earths find in 2023, but investors are finally starting to notice. There is renewed focus on REE as a result of China halting shipments in response to the Trump tariffs. We also think the positive Fluor report and Friday’s bullish interview are sparking interest in METC. The talk about back channel discussion with DoD was pretty intriguing. Also, Atkins summed it up well, saying this is a nascent industry. Only one other company is involved in rare earths that began 70 years ago, and METC is the next one, and it’s just getting started.
We might be entering a new era of metals refining with the invention of a process called Flash Joule Heating, which is set to revolutionize rare earths refining along with many other metals. Developed at Rice University the patent is held by micro-cap Metallium (OTCOB: MTMCF, ASX: MTM)
https://investorhub.metalliuminc.com/announcements/7028814
Quite frankly they should ignore Trump and go about forging new alliances and trading partnerships. Trump is an arrogant idiot and they all see it.
No point in negating with someone that has no conscience or regard for previous deals.
Trump has screwed himself and is being bitch slapped into the corner!
TACO!
The Trump tariffs feel more like ransom demands than trade policy.
It’s extortion in the guise of economic strategy. History has a habit of repeating itself — especially for those with a record.
I prefer the term economic terrorism. Trump is a (economic) terrorist and the lack of action makes from the US congress makes them conspirators and by the transitive property, the US a terrorist state. Sadly, as in other terrorist states, the citizens who are not terrorists are so labelled. It is even worse for the US which is still technically a democracy.
It’s because we’ve been in a 30 second news cycle for 20 yrs if your under 40 you might need to read up a little.
US gets most of it’s Potash from Canada, Canada could stop all Potash shipments. That would definitely the agriculture industry pissed off at Trump.
Russias largest export to the US is fertilizer. Neatly a billion dollars worth!
Say goodbye to cheap fertilizer for the MAGA farmers that voted for trump!
My farming friends are about to get monkey hammered by their hero!
Sad…
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You need to get Biden to rerun
Either that or an exhorbitant export tariff, it may be easier and less legally fraught than a ban on exports. Same goes for electricity from Ontario (a supporter of that) and Quebec (not so much). And Oil from Alberta and others.
Maybe those countries should raise their prices. Couple that with the tariffs and Trump would really have egg on his face.
This mish thing is so anti Trump it’s nutty.
Are the TACOs Trump consumes daily made in US, Mexico or China?
Brazil Biden eliminated the beef tariffs.
The brilliance of Mish …
Tariffs are needed instead of the income tax, but negotiations should be done calmly without bluster.
2 Deals in 90 days.
TACO is really restless.
These other countries are not stupid. They know that no matter how much they give in to Trump, he will only ask for more. And he will never live up to his agreements. His word means nothing.
The most common strategy is to negotiate and stall as long as possible. Give in to a couple of insignificant things if necessary and then keep dragging out negotiations.
If they have to sign a “deal”, they know that won’t be the end of Trump’s demands. So make sure the deal is small. Keep this up for a few years till he is gone.
“His word means nothing.”
That’s not what the Ayatollah & IRGC think but can’t say so out loud.
Look. I agree. Most everyone is going to try to stall & delay.
We’ll know, maybe as early as tomorrow, whether or not Trump will be forced sooner rather than later to back off on tariffs.
The US was supposedly negotiating with Iran – and Witkof said it was going well – while knowing full well that Israel was about to attack them. Not exactly a good way to encourage countries to negotiate with the US.
It’s known as perfidy; using a white flag and seeming “negotiation” to stage an attack.
It’s explicitly a war crime.
Oh nonsense. There was no “white flag”
It’s called, “Walking softly and carrying a big stick”….
His word does mean nothing. HE, DONALD J TRUMP, sign a trade agreement with Canada a Mexico, hailed it as the greatest trade deal ever and has now broken the agreement he signed with 18 month remaining on the term. Not only that, Canada a Mexico were the first countries he attacked.
and the world will trade less and less with usa for the next few years and probably decades. it’s all so senseless.
Yep. But they will all trade more with each other.
Tariffs are a tax on trade, so we will have less trade.
Wise advice. Seriously, I’ve been making this arguement, to those who would listen. I have this crazy plan. The key iz to do nothing. Our analysis is that DJT is maybe not playing with a full deck. We should do nothing – just continue to execute on our plans. We have plans. If USA implodes, we might be OK. Maybe more than OK. I have associates that are doing really well. It’s curious. Canada needs to wake up. And so we shall. USA is harming itself. Not our problem. We have these sci-fi sfuff, based on plasma tech. just we need to make sure it can work, in real time.
Strange times, eh?
We support our allies – if they want to stay allies…
– R.
Canada blocking Alberta’s oil from the US would cause Alberta to secede, starting a domino effect that will end confederation.
ha ha ha. is alberta stupid enough to join the MAGA crumbling empire of meth and idiocracy? i did lots of business in alberta in my lifetime. i never took them for fools.
The troika of which you so wistfully speak could bring the US economy to a grinding halt? Yeah, no. Let’s see it happen. Bet you a dollar, or we could also wait until pigs fly.
Don’t forget pharmaceuticals.
This post is a much better articulation of what I meant in a related thread comment that basically stated Trump was building a new world trade order and the US is going to be excluded. If a tariff is a tax on trade, then we can expect less trade. That is exactly what will happen after tariff front running. Less trade with the US will encourage other countries to work out trade agreements excluding Trump and America as we have demonstrated we are not reliable wrt honoring agreements. New trade agreements excluding the US cuts off our supply without having to address Trump at all, a double win for our trade competitors as he is not part of the discussion.
I want Trump to be successful just like I want all US presidents to be successful, but not at the expense our country’s wellbeing.
“Besides, it’s impossible to negotiate with someone who cannot be trusted to honor any deal he makes.”
You just described every president since 1992. Be honest. We don’t elect honorable people. We elect people who tell us what we want to hear.
i am not a crook.
If you like your doctor/insurance plan, you can keep them. There was no banking fraud. Biden is sharp as a tack. There is no insider trading in congress.
Nixon is looking more and more like a honorable statesman as the years roll by….
They’ll do nothing because the US consumer will be hit the hardest first.
What does the US produce that the world wants large quanitities of and is willing to pay a premium price?
? Dollars
? Con jobs
? Malfeasance
? PR
? Lies
? Perfidy
Take over Seattle, Portland, Southern California, Minneapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston and New York City.
and…?
take some of the most productive MSA’s in the world and turn them into inbred red sleepy backwaters
sounds like a stable genius plan
Delay and drag feet as much as possible. Never give good reason to feed an irrational response.
China did it best: blocking exports strategic for the US, slapping tariffs on Usonian supplies that could be easily sourced from elsewhere, exempting from tariffs Usonian supplies that could not be easily sourced from elsewhere. The result was maximum pain on the US and minimal cost to the Chinese industry, all the while developing suppliers outside the US.
But doing nothing has its merits too.
Maybe they can just create their own currency and make it the world’s reserve currency and trade with each other. Yeah, no. We know it doesn’t work like that. China is on a cliff. Mexico is a Narco OGA state, Canada, their maple syrup sucks and they can’t win Stanley Cups. Good luck to them. No more free lunch.
Warning!
Warning to China, Mexico, Brazil, Canada and etc.
You won’t get printed paper if you don’t obey.
China, Canada, Mexico, the EU …will lose access to the US if they disobey Trump. If SPX slumps they will be in more troubles. We will need less from them. Kapo Trump will torture them and plays them against each other in a prisoner dilemma. Time is on Kapo Trump side. He knows his enemies and he knows himself.
Timmy please come back: we lost our democracy. Kapo Trump locked the illegals, Hakeem who Resisted BBB, Carney, Sheinbaum, Macron and Xi. Timmy please, bring the globalist back !
He doesn’t even know a dozen 2 syllable words.
So negotiating isn’t a good option?
China has taken advantage of the US far too long. They literally have us over a barrel.
MX is quickly becoming the next China, $157B deficit vs $270B with China, and that doesn’t take into account the problems associated with illegal immigration.
We run close to a $250B trade deficit with the EU. Parity would be better for us at least, and Trump certainly needs to use a less hostile approach with them.
Canada is only about $55B, so they are far less of a threat that China, MX & EU pose. Trump definitely needs to back off CA some just like he needs to do with the EU.
You forgot to factor in Services in your numbers.
Also, don’t see you mentioning the actual amounts collected in import tariffs.
You are unbalanced.
The classic double bird with raspberry.
The world must band together for the biggest ego stroke ever seen:
where everyone agrees to call it Trump’s Worldwide Tarriff Agreement…
and everyone gets the exact same tariff rates they had before.
He’ll love it. It’s classic Trump. Slap a new name on the same old shit…
& call it the best thing ever!
Trump election victory Oct/Nov 2016 gap is still open: “I have been warning about it for a decade”.
I’m all for other nations ending trade with the US so long as the madman is at the helm doing the things he has historically done for the reasons he cites. Why should we expect anything other than nearly the worst-case outcome from Trump, who has always delivered just that? Sure, everyone takes a hit, but it’s better than being diddled by Trump for a full four years with possibly the same result.
“Why should we expect anything other than nearly the worst-case outcome from Trump, who has always delivered just that?”
Because that’s your crazed, anti-Trump mindset speaking which is quite detached from reality. But there’s a lot of that going on around here nowadays.
Let’s just take the Southern Border as one example. He had it under control in 30 days, and by 90 days NOBODY is getting in.
Now, if you love open-borders, then that speaks volumes regarding your distance from mainstream.
Now do his efforts at getting the federal budget under control as another example. He spends like a drunk in the VIP room of a strip club.
What part of Rando saying that Trump ALWAYS delivers worst-case outcome do you not understand?
Wait, are you a closet open-borders person like Rando?
Mexico will pay the wall.
childish response.
Trump brought our nation to a standstill during Covid.
Sounding more and more familiar?
Did the BBB control spending? NO!
War end in Gaza or Ukraine? NO!
Elections have consequences!
>
‘Trump brought our nation to a standstill during Covid.”
Frosty, you sure do have a bad memory.
Dem / liberal states were the one who brought the nation to a standstill.
Trump & the GOP kept the red states open for business.
Are you struggling with dementia like your Uncle Joe?
I would respond to TACO’s threats with answer # one with hope for strength in numbers. However, I am not sure these other world leaders have spines any stronger than that for TACO.