Suddenly, MAGA supporters think inflation is low and guaranteed to stay that way.
Year-over-year the all items CPI is 2.4 percent. It’s been over the Fed’s 2 percent target for since March of 2021.
For those counting, that’s 51 month’s.
Under Biden, Inflation rose to 9.1 percent then fell to as low as 2.4 percent but finished 2024 at 2.9 percent.
If we give Trump credit for all of the improvement in 2025, that’s a 0.5 percent reduction. This of course, assumes you believe the BLS.
Look at these True believers.
Larry Kudlow
Peter St Onge, Ph.D
By the way, no one ever said anything about “tariff hyperinflation”. We do expect to see it with a delay.
Seriously Professor?
Bull.BnB Trades & News
“Inflation is completely over. Truly over.”
Really?
James Fishback
Libertarians Sucked Into the Cult
As I see it, year over-year-year the CPI is up 2.4 percent. I expect that will increase tomorrow, when the BLS reports.
These Trumpian suck-ups are all bragging about tariffs when no one expected an immediate reaction because of massive tariff front running.
Perhaps we don’t see a surge in inflation. But if we don’t, the most likely reason will be a big economic slowdown that destroys demand.
Then the suck-ups will blame Powell for not lowering rates. None of them will ever blame Trump for anything.
Libertarians have been sucked into the Cult and now believe the BLS. And they are now promoting loose money based on statements by economically-illiterate politicians.
Suddenly, the rise in the price of gold, silver, copper, and Bitcoin don’t matter at all. Nor does the 30-year long bond flirting with 5.0 percent or the decline in the US dollar or massive deficits, sure to increase once Trump seeks more military spending.
All that matters now, is BLS reports of cherry-picked months of CPI data.
Yes, it’s really astounding.
Repeating past statements. There should not be a Fed. But the one thing worse than an independent Fed is one controlled by the president.
I Officially Announce my Availability to Become the Next Fed Chair
On July 9, I posted I Officially Announce my Availability to Become the Next Fed Chair
Trump considers naming the next Fed Chair early. I have a fifteen-point plan.
I throw my name into the ring.
And I have a plan for what needs to be done. Does anyone else have a plan?
Mish’s 15-Point Fed Plan
- Explain to the nation why we don’t need a Fed and how independent central banks have created boom-bust cycles of increasing amplitude over time. The main corollary is history shows the one thing worse than independent central banks is a central bank run by politicians, frequently ending in hyperinflation.
- Surround myself with qualified insiders who understand the Fed but also believe in the mission to end the Fed.
- Stop paying interest on reserves, phased in over 18 months.
- Wind down the Fed’s balance sheet totally in 2-3 years.
- Require that assets available on demand such as checking and savings accounts are truly available on demand. That means demand deposits are parked in overnight US treasuries. This would be phased in over two years. As a result, we would have genuine safekeeping banks.
That’s the first five. Click on the above link for further discussion.
Surely by now you have figured out that MAGA will believe any number that makes Fearless Leader look good, and will discount any number that makes him look bad.
If Trump wants lower rates, use Fiscal Policy and CUT SPENDING/borrowing.
No one will shed a tear about bureaucrats losing their jobs moving to private sector.
Don’t let DOGE die.
DOGE was a purge of regulatory agencies that were investigating Elon, and a massive data heist to feed his AI.
It saved a tiny, tiny fraction of the 3.7 trillion deficit brought by the big beautiful bill.
Simply knee jerk reactions to all the drama out there. Sometimes people just want to feel good, and are tired of the non-stop BS!
Well, go smoke a joint and stare at your belly button, then.
Unfortunately smoking one doesn’t make the idiots go away…
I always, always, have faith in Government reports that agree with my thinking.
Not so much all of the other reports.
Typical, eh?
Core inflation rises to 2.9%. 3% or higher in July, here we come!
You’d have to be TACO or Kudlow to think inflation has broken.
JP doesn’t think so, but they’re going to fire him for kinda, sort of made-up cause.
Personally, I want to see what happens in the markets when he’s deep sixed, short-term rates are pushed lower, inflation accelerates and the bond market correctly revolts.
We need some vigilantes lurking around to give us a shock & get everyone’s attention. Apparently, DOGE wasn’t as good at marketing their findings as what we would have hoped.
The tariffs resulted in a 27b surplus in June. The O/N RRP facility still has 218b in it.
Right, and as that SURPLUS grows, so will inflation. More and more companies will be forced to pass along Trump’s tariffs onto consumers. He started out WAY TOO high. He should have started out with lower tariff rates and built them up slowly, which would have helped keep inflation under control a little more.
The world has been ruined by the internet
The USA has been further ruined by the passage of Citizens United
That’s really all of it right there
Nobody believes the Internet comment, and Hillary who was well funded still lost … so, you know …
No amount of money was going to get the American people to vote for those pantsuits.
CU Misson Statement:
Restore the United States government to citizens’ control, through a combination of education, advocacy, and grass-roots organization seeking to reassert the traditional American values of limited government, freedom of enterprise, strong families, and national sovereignty and security.
I don’t know, Rando, but I like what I read there.
Are you a member of Antifa?
We should have stayed as hunter-gatherers too.
It’s worth repeating Again!!
“Repeating past statements. There should not be a Fed. But the one thing worse than an independent Fed is one controlled by the president.”
Potentially a contributing factor is they do not want to become the target of unwanted and unbecoming vitriol comments from the chief world bully. Opinions can differ and that’s not a reason for disrespect. Poster child for this is Jerome Powell, but virtually everyone who disagrees with Trump is the target of his foul mouth. Trump has done a lot of good, but it’s hard to appreciate the man behind the good when he is destroying American trade relations and has ill manners.
I sense in the rise of figures like Trump, Musk, Xi, Putin (maximalists of their subjective supposed future visions, with huge gravitational fields of influence and power), a corresponding atrophy and shrinkage of everyone else’s (including press, pundits, “experts,” etc.) independence and cognitive quality. News is now an endless howl of often binary news cycle-pulsing key (often silly) attacks and defenses of the day’s designated points. The spin is often cheap and fairly transparent, but now the oracles of information are perhaps being manipulated at a higher level. AI will assist this at industrial scale and give it a surface consistency. The quality of the opposition seems lower too. It is as if one organism, or a few, are sucking up all the cognitive resources and spewing out their self-serving bullet points, and everyone else, suddenly a minnow in a degraded ecosystem, is processing that chum. We are all in this casino/gulag now: it is being built AROUND us.
Long-term money flows bottomed in 8/24. Peak is in 9/25?
Commensurate with CRB index
CRB Commodity Index – Price – Chart – Historical Data – News
All the right-wing cares about are tax cuts. The fact that our bloated government can’t afford the cuts is irrelevant. The impact on deficits, the future and inflation are also not relevant. The same bunch bloats spending with defense allotments and gifts to favored groups but breast beats over tax breaks.
They elected a man who wants ZIRP when it’s clearly the wrong solution. We deserve all the pain coming our way as a nation.
They elected and support a man that rapes children.
God will deal with them too.
This looks like a WSJ report without a snippet from them. You pluck 4 conservatives and build a narrative around the notion that all of MAGA land believes inflation is over and that the BLS is now to be trusted.
I’m MAGA, and I don’t think inflation is over. I know more conservatives who are concerned about tariff inflation than not. And I’ve never really had a problem with BLS other than their shift to treating home ownership as a capital expense that, in part, is based on surveys.
The net effect has been lower homeownership & rent inputs to CPI that has reduced SS COLAs. But back in 1983, after massive COLAs emerged from a sustained period of high inflation. In fact, the avg COLA for the 8 years prior to 1983 was 8.7%. The next 8 years averaged just 3%. Granted, the big inflation had broken, but there’s well researched data that suggests CPI is underreported routinely by around 1%. 1% since 1983 would be a loss of 42% of cumulative purchasing power.
But, no, I don’t think inflation has broken yet. Nor do a lot of conservatives, but we’re just not as concerned about it becoming a major problem which is an entirely different story to be told.
Perhaps it’s because we haven’t seen a single monthly revision since January. During the Biden years we saw monthly revisions for virtually every economic report as often as we witnessed Joe showing his senility. Oddly enough, the revisions showed the economic data was even worse than initially reported far more often than they showed improvement.
Ilan deposited $2B in the banks. The Fed borrowed it for an IOU. The gov borrowed it from the Fed for an IOU. So far: Ilan has $2B in the banks. The Banks have $2B in their book and the Fed has $2B in the books. But the gov spent the $2B on Shingle mums and the poor. Poof: no printing, no electronic money ==> no inflation, only $36.5T debt.
The easy to extract is gone. Cost is higher, but winning the war against Ukraine
and wiping Israel out of the map were more important than making profit on oil.
When the globalist ruled the US RE was the safest asset. After 2008 the US gov
financed RE. RE will decay, in real terms, for years, but there is a new player in town for the bankers: finance the industrial expansion.
“Suddenly, the rise in the price of gold, silver, copper, and Bitcoin don’t matter at all.”
There is always a bull market somewhere.
As for inflation from tariffs it is still not showing up. It’s better to talk to producers who export to the US and ask them how they handle the tariffs and what are their strategies to understand why.
There’s always a market for bull, too!
Perhaps you do not know that phrase. It is a phrase used by market professionals to say that you have to look beyond the stock market to find things to trade so the phrase is not bull but your answer certainly is amateur.
Sorry if I rubbed you the wrong way by trying to make a fun comment. I agree with your comments… but there’s a lot of bull spread on this site by some of the other commenters.
Anyway, I’ve been familiar with “there’s always a bull market somewhere” for over 20 years. It’s quite true. There are usually a few periods every decade where most people wished they were 100% cash because all the “standard investments” tanked simultaneously, but even then there was something going up somewhere. Even without including inverse ETFs.
Doug, when the recession comes, please let me know where the bull market is?
I assume snapping up cheaper real estate would qualify.
That would be bottom fishing in my opinion. A bull market needs an established trend.
Well, when it comes, I definitely intend to sell out of my SGOV, SHY & TLT positions hopefully for a tidy profit & redeploy into as much OKLO & SMR as I can buy. I’d love to see several other SMR startups for public between now & then, like Terrapower, X-Energy & Kairos.
QS has finally made a move higher. I would love to see it get whack-a-moled via a recession back down to $3 a share. I hope SLDP continues on its streak as well. It’s my understanding that CATL has made a big investment in sulfide SSBs like SLDP is developing. That’s gotta be a good sign.
Those CATL folks know what they’re doing.
There is also a sucker born every minute, said a famous con artist.
Even respected ones like Daniel Lacalle is joining the cult, just sad to see their logic go full retard. Thank gawd for libertarians like Mish keeping it real!
By the way,
TACO is ordering Russia to stop Ukraine war by September or face more sanctions.
Total Russia Sanctions by Source ; Total:24,311 ; US 7,384 ; Canada 3,639 ; Switzerland 3,266 ; EU 2,482.
More sanctions? ? ?
He he he.
Perhaps he’ll stamp his little feet and hold his breath till he turns orange. I’m sure Putin is terrified that might happen.
Pedos are weak people. Weaker people follow pedos.
Why 50 days before stronger tariffs are applied? Why not tomorrow?
All Putin needs to do is issue the withdraw order to his fighters. He can do this alone.
His cultists won’t remember 30 days ago, 50 days from now, that’s why
Russia is not going to withdraw from its territory.
This is why the US must support the Ukrainians until they take back all the land that Russia has annexed.
Putin just laughed in his face and rejected it. Didn’t even pretend to consider it, or wait out the 50 days. Just a cheery “Screw you, pedo!”
Nobody wants to deal with a pedophile except other pedophiles…. like the 200-odd republican congressmen that just voted to keep the Epstien list secret.
Both parties approve of government statistics when the statistics benefit them. Not difficult.
So we’re still waiting for any actual evidence of economically significant tariff-driven inflation, but in the meantime Someone Is Wrong On The Internet. Got it.
“What’s With the Sudden Faith of Republicans in BLS Inflation Reports?”
When Trump s***s, the cult puts on their bib napkins
Why would anyone believe any one thing the govt purports. Latest eg Epstein killed himself. WTF , they know we know they are fucking liars including the bullshit the statistician’s try to feed us. It’s about time these liars are called out by the media, but we know they are useless also. A complete shitshow.
“…these liars need to be called out by the media.”
“The media” are primarily funded by the same corporate interests that run the lying government.
There are many independent media voices but you have to look for them, and many of those also have their own agendas.
Free G Maxwell.
When people decide to stop thinking critically, events such as these unfold.
Most people never learn how. I had a critical thinking course in college, and anybody that wasn’t an engineering major struggled mightily.
The republicans just blocked a vote on releasing his list:
https://www.newsweek.com/jeffrey-epstein-files-republicans-block-move-trump-release-documents-2098982?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=reddit_main
Geriatric Obsequious Pedo party.
Worth [re]reading:
They DO know this, which is exactly why they want to drop rates NOW before reality intrudes on their rationalizations to return to zero percent Fed interest rate.
People used to be embarrassed by saying dumb/stoopid stuff but no more.
Same reason all the remaining faithful are saying the publicly readable Epstein black book doesn’t exist silly! Great leader said so!
Next, great leader will collectivize the farms to make sure no illegals work there and nationalize manufacturing to further the four year concept of a plan to reach commu- “the new golden age”! Can’t you liberals see? This is conservatism in action!
Do any MAGA types shop at the Dollar Tree?
Dollar Tree raised prices a few months ago and SPECIFICALLY cited the tariffs as the primary reason for the price increases.
Don’t tell Wisdom Seeker this. He’ll just call you a liar and say this is not “actual evidence” of tariffs possibly impacting inflation
It’s only evidence if you believe
(a) Dollar Tree is economically significant (it’s not), and
(b) they were telling the truth about the driver of their price hikes (how would anyone know?)
The latest CPI reporting still doesn’t show the raging 10% inflation that half the survey respondents were expecting. I guess we can keep waiting?
“It’s only evidence if…”
LOL – that’s Trumpian logic. Very much like, “I don’t care how others define it; I will tell you what reciprocal tariffs are.”
a) Only you get to define economically significant? Thanks; I’m sure all the Dollar General shoppers appreciate the fact you don’t recognize what they experience in their daily shopping lives.
b) Yes, why should we believe a company that publicly tells their customers and shareholders in statements that tariffs are affecting it? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dollar-tree-tariffs-profit-drop/ Surely your ‘explanation’ that we can’t ‘prove’ they are telling the truth in financial remarks is more believable than the CEO’s recorded statement to analysts
Cuckoo for Trump’s cocoa-puffs
So did the guy who cleans my rain gutters.
I think we are all forgetting the large numbers of cops, firemen and teachers, many of whom are retired or retiring baby boomers who have been promised pensions and low-cost health care from government retirement funds that are way underfunded. I still await property taxes in Chicago (2 weeks late) but the expected increase for just one year will be 25%. They dont include property taxes in inflation numbers but the taxes are expected to “dribble thru” into other areas that actually get measured. Trump threatened the Saudi dictator/prince that he will remove the “American mercenaries sitting in Doha” whose side hustle is protecting the Saudi dictators from rampaging super-poor rioters if they didnt open wide the oil flow which does wonders for the oil price. And I think all they measure for inflation is the gasoline pump prices anyway.
Who would have ever thought that The Gale Street Inn would close?
Chicagoans are northsiders or southsiders. Dont introduce complexity like “northwest-siders” PLEASE! 🙂
Ot westsiders.
Also none of those people had any credibility to begin with.
Mish for fed chair.
Expect more manipulation than what has been the case. Anyone with a pulse knows that inflation is not declining and is an excess of 3%, at best.
MAGA and globalist Republicons are definitely not the same. Government inflation numbers are Orwellian lies.
MAGA are the ones that support the pedo president.
They chose pedophelia over globalism…. so yay for them?
Trump fiired people who were cooking the books.
And replaced them with lackeys that will cook the books the way HE wants.
Surprise! The books have been cooked for over a half century.
Gold price was 35$ in 1971.
Gold price was 300$ in 2000.
Gold price is 3300$ in 2025.
ie. nearly 10000% over 50 years.
I don’t know how much yoy but sure over 2% yoy.
Call it a 100x devaluation of US$ vs gold in 54 years … that is almost 9%/year on average.
off topic i know but how much more of this ‘winning’ will we take?? Trump Kept Gold Club World Cup Trophy for Himself So FIFA Had to Give the Winners a Replica
He’s that kid that shows up at other kid’s birthday parties and demands to blow out the candles.
Except after he blows out all the candles, he molests the other kids and steals all the gifts.