Top 10 Metro Area Changes
Home prices in five of the top 10 metro areas in the country have declined since mid-2000.
Case Shiller 20-City Metro Second Tier
Case Shiller 20-City Metro Tier II
In the second tier of top 20 cities, only Phoenix was in the red.
Overall Losers
- Las Vegas: -14.38%
- Chicago: -13.67%
- Miami: -8.46%
- Phoenix: -6.32%
- New York: -5.61%
- Washington DC: – 2.66%
Overall Winners
- Denver: +67.52%
- Dallas: +58.44%
- Seattle: +43.47%
- Portland: +36.03%
- Charlotte: +31.16%
- Boston: +29.98%
- San Francisco: +29.91%
- Atlanta: +17.90%
- Cleveland: +11.72%
- San Diego: +11.60%
- Los Angeles: +11.25%
- Minneapolis: +8.27%
- Detroit: +3.59%
- Tampa: +2.22%
Case Shiller Region Descriptions
Case Shiller Composite Indexes
Case Shiller Composite Changes
In contrast to the cities that peaked at various times, the composites and the national index all peaked in February of 2007.
At the national level we have exceeded the peak of the prior housing bubble although results vary widely by city.
Hooray?!
Related Articles
- The Housing Bubble is Even Bigger Than the Stock Market Bubble
- Hello Fed, Low Interest Rates Do Not Promote Growth
Mish
I ran across this….and I have to admit to being a Zillow surfer myself….although I’ve done it for years.
30Y mortgage rates are 3% lower now than Nov. 2008
Did not expect to see the relative decline in D.C. pricing.
Does this count as a return to fiscal responsibility?
Rent in Denver is getting to parity with the insane prices in ski towns, so people are moving to towns like Winter Park and Dillon and commuting to Denver. Works OK until the passes close, but it also makes a weekday traffic jam that looks like Sunday afternoon used to look in Idaho Springs. Of course now with telecommuting it makes even more sense. It will change the nature of these small towns, but they’ve survived worse.
Is Case Shiller flawed? Isn’t it better to look at home affordability indexes?
No – Case Shiller is resale of same home – an excellent index
Yes, Case Shiller measures price, but ignores the price of new houses. Home affordability indexes take into account price of all houses, mortgage rates, and household income. They are much better measures of housing costs.
I see Janet Yellen is being talked about for Treasury Secretary.
Is there a graph of median salary vs median housing to asses affordability? I ask because over at calculated risk they keep saying that houses are very affordable (more than the last peak) because the new pricing is in reality lower due to inflation. My contention is that housing is not affordable mortgages are
I agree with you vs CR – but median price not a good indicator
Median income vs Case Shiller is a good metric but ideally would need to be per city. I could do Median Income vs Case Shiller National composite
This upsets some of my current notions on real estate trends. Does excite me that Phoenix market might go even higher before the crash!
Why does HOUSTON TX not appear on any list??? Last time I checked it was 4th largest in USA!
Nobody wants to live there?
Correct. Having grown up there I can attest that no one actually wants to live there. It’s essentially a drained swamp, prone to extreme flooding, with the climate of Calcutta in the summertime.
As for environmental constraints, I’d merely point out the fact that they pump their drinking water out of the ground causing the city to sink further.
My wife is from Pasadena (TX)…and I did my residency at the Med Center in the mid-80’s….she moved to Austin the day I got out…..said I could come if I wanted to…..
Lewis are you saying that Houston is basically an armpit? Yack…
Especially when the wind blows in from all the chemical factories and refineries near the ship channel… 😉
Its not housing that has be inflated, its your money that has been diluted.
I agree.
I like that “priced in gold” site….I used to look at it fairly often but it’s been a while…thanks for putting that up.
According to that chart, housing was only out of line from 1997 to 2007. Otherwise it is relatively stable with gold.
Yes that’s the point. In dollars the prices have risen continuously, but in real terms as measured in gold over a long period of time they haven’t changed much. So it’s really the devaluation of the dollar that creates the illusion of housing price rises.
The chart of the Median Sales Prices of New Nomes is a better illustration.
Yes and no, but mostly no. When the Fed Reserve purchases the equivalent of nearly 45 upper class cities that they openly admit to and mark-to-market accounting has been suspended for nearly a decade, then house prices get (severely) inflated.
People want out of NYC , the one two punch of D’Blasio’s eincompetence and the impact of Covid has people rethinking how they live and work
We will see how that ages at this time next year.
I predict people go back to NYC like always. Once the vaccines are in place and life goes back to normal in 2021 then few people will remember or talk about an exodus from anywhere.
I can only speak of what’s happening now. prediction is very difficult, especially when it concerns the future
You are either a NYC person or not. I can’t see the appeal of living in the City. Or in the NYC Metro.
I like Manhattan. i hate the other boroughs. I like visiting othe areas but Manhattan is home.