Huge Stagflation Risk In Play on the Midterm Election Results

September 5, 2022

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3:41 am

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94 comments

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Economics, Politics

It is increasingly likely that Democrats hold the Senate thanks to very poor candidate selection by the Republicans.

Republicans are a solid favorite to lose Pennsylvania. If nothing else changes that would be 51-49 negating Joe Manchin.

In yellow highlights, Walker, Laxalt, Masters, and Oz are all extremely weak candidates. Trump had a hand in every one of them.

His only criteria was whether or not they were willing to run on loyalty to Trump and “stop the steal” nonsense.

What Happened in Pennsylvania?

In Pennsylvania, Trump backed Mehmet Oz, a very weak “stop the steal” no-name candidate with Turkish citizenship and service in the Turkish military.

This guy is highly likely to go down in flames by double digits.

What Happened in Arizona?

Thanks to Trump, Republicans fielded another exceptionally weak Senate Candidate.

Blake Masters, backed by former President Donald Trump and venture capitalist Peter Thiel, won the Arizona Republican Party’s nomination.

Governor Doug Ducey wanted to run for Senate and would have been a very strong candidate. However, Trump vowed to defeat Mr. Ducey because the Governor refused to help overturn Trump’s 2020 loss in the state.

What Happened in Nevada?

Laxalt is a weak stop the steal Trump-backed candidate.

What About Georgia?

Trump backed former NFL running back Herschel Walker.

Curiously, Walker says he is Mad at Trump for Taking Credit.

Distancing from Trump is a smart move and increases his chances of winning.

Assessing Republican Odds

The Republican’s best chance for a Senate pickup is in Georgia. Assuming Republicans hold Wisconsin and win Georgia, the outcome of the Senate rests on Laxalt winning Nevada.

There is no room for error for the Republicans. Democrats will retain the Senate if they flip Wisconsin or hold either Georgia or Nevada.

What About the House?

The Wall Street Journal notes Support for Legalized Abortion Grows Since Dobbs Ruling, WSJ Poll Shows

Voters have grown more supportive of legalizing abortion following the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, with a clear majority opposing restrictions, like bans at a certain point of pregnancy or barring women from traveling to get a legal abortion, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll that underscores the importance of the issue in the midterm elections.

The court’s decision to end federal constitutional protections for the procedure has injected new Democratic energy into a midterm election that Republicans expected to be dominated by economic issues. About a dozen states have banned many or most abortions since the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

A total of 41% of independents said they trust Democrats most to handle abortion policy, compared with 18% who said Republicans were best.

Asked broadly about their top issue for the midterms, voters cited the economy and inflation first, followed by abortion. But when offered a choice of five issues and asked which made them most likely to vote, they put the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade ahead of inflation.

Abortion has been a motivating issue in some key ballot tests ahead of the midterms. Kansas voters rejected a measure that would have amended the state’s constitution to explicitly say it doesn’t protect abortion. And abortion was seen as a key issue for Democrat Pat Ryan, who won a special election to fill an open U.S. House seat in New York’s Hudson Valley.

“The truth of the matter is even among Republicans there isn’t a clear consensus. They want restrictions, the question is what restrictions and how far should they go,” said Mr. Fabrizio, the GOP pollster.

Abortion a Fringe Issue?

I often hear that abortion is a fringe issue and will never decide an election.

That view is wrong. Abortion may easily decide the Senate and the House is not out of the question.

Midterm Elections to Decide Fate of Biden’s Tax Agenda

The economically important point in this discussion is not politics or abortion. Rather, Midterm Elections to Decide Fate of Biden’s Tax Agenda

“It’s just very clear that if you have one of the chambers in Republicans’ control, that the majority of the Biden tax plan as we’ve known for several years is simply off the table,” said John Gimigliano, a former House GOP aide now at KPMG LLP.

Joe Biden Holds a Trump Rally

Finally, please consider the WSJ view Joe Biden Holds a Trump Rally

It’s been obvious for years that while Democrats claim to fear and loathe Donald Trump, they really can’t live without him. They need him around, they want him around, because they think he’s their ticket to remain in power.

Any doubt about that proposition vanished with President Biden’s Thursday night speech that had a single political purpose: Elevating Mr. Trump to the center of the fall campaign. Forget all the high-minded talk about saving democracy, which is hardly in danger in a midterm election in which Mr. Trump isn’t even on the ballot. Democrats want to pretend the former President is on the ballot to campaign against as the great Democratic foil.

That’s why Mr. Biden has so pointedly goaded Mr. Trump and his followers with the “MAGA Republican” label. His escalating rhetoric is intended to smear the GOP as under Mr. Trump’s sway and “semi-fascist.”

All of this is deeply cynical and divisive. It contradicts Mr. Biden’s pledge, during the 2020 campaign and in his inaugural address, that he would unite the country. He repeated that claim of “unity” on Thursday but by now it is a throwaway line.

His strategy is to out-Trump Trump by polarizing the electorate around the former President because he thinks a majority will come his way. Even as we write this, his own party is running ads in New Hampshire to support the most MAGA Republican in the GOP Senate primary. A group allied with Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell is supporting the other main GOP candidate.

Mr. Biden has become his foe’s polarizing mirror image. It is exactly what he promised as a candidate he wouldn’t do.

Huge Stagflation Risk In Play

Republicans are likely to take the House, but it is not impossible for Democrats to hold.

Stranger things have happened.

If Democrats pick up one more Senate seat then hold the House (unlikely but not impossible), expect a massive outbreak of fiscal nonsense.

Biden would pass in entirety Build Back Better coupled with personal tax hikes, a minimum corporate tax hike, inane environmental polices, free education, and the entire wish list of Progressive clean energy madness.

Regardless, Trump single-handedly likely killed what should have been a Red Wave.

Now we are left hoping for a last second swing in the Senate and modest gains in the House.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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KidHorn

1 year ago

The polls have historically made dems look better than the final result. Seems every upset is a pub beating a dem and never the other way around. And we have 2 months to go. So, I suspect the final result will be a lot different.

But, either way, pick your poison. Both parties are terrible.

hmk

1 year ago

The republicans need to change their mascot to a lion and their motto to: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” This is what the Detroit Lions use and it works. Abortion no matter what the personal belief, can be made a national law like in Europe. There it is legal I believe until 16 weeks. If these political morons/parasites had only one term to serve and not worry about staying in power they might actually vote on what is best for the country. Abortion should be a non issue. If Trump runs it will be a fatal blow to the party. He should bow out for the good of the party and let someone more competent run but he is to much of a narcissist.

KidHorn

1 year ago

Reply to hmk

The democrats don’t want to pass a nationwide abortion law. Because if they did, it would no longer be an issue.

Carl_R

1 year ago

Reply to KidHorn

Nevertheless, that was the point of the Supreme Court Decision: Abortion policy should be decided in the political arena, rather than a policy made in the Supreme Court.

Webej

1 year ago

American politics is so in need of rejuvenation impulses.

How can it be stuck in this morass with a handful of candidates that nobody wants and that nobody can conceive of as national leaders?

worleyeoe

1 year ago

If Fetterman takes PA, this IS THE SIGN that we’re all screwed. While OZ may be far from a great GOP candidate, Fetterman is an absolute nut job.

randocalrissian

1 year ago

Reply to worleyeoe

Start preppin’, Mr. Crudité doesn’t have ‘it”

StukiMoi

1 year ago

One of the very, very few upsides of America by now being, literally, ram as badly as is at all possible, is that things, again literally, at least cannot get any worse.

As long as you have a Fed, it doesn’t matter one iota whether fiscal policy is good or bad. Since monetary policy will simply compensate no matter what. Such that, in the end, all output will be stolen, misallocated, wasted and spent on nothing but ever more repression either way. After all, it’s not as if handing billions over the “environmental budget” to clowns who have chained themselves to trees instead of doing anything productive, is any more economically damaging than handing the same billions to clowns sitting on couches and offices “making money off their assets” who does exactly the same hard zero worth of productive work. Instead, it’s all the same.

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to StukiMoi

It is not the Federal Reserve Bank in the US that throws money willy-nilly into their general economy.

It is a House full of elected Representatives that spend.

Their Treasury dutifully borrows from the elders and their children and grandchildren.

If the US depended upon taxes and free market determined public purchases of Government debt there would not be much of an economy.

It is called living beyond your means with credit.

StukiMoi

1 year ago

Reply to Lisa_Hooker

“It is not the Federal Reserve Bank in the US that throws money willy-nilly into their general economy.”

Uhh? They’re the ones who make willy-nilly-throwable money available to throw. Get rid of them, bring Gold to $20/oz; and see how many trillions worth of $20/oz gold coins Washington have at their disposal to throw around willy nilly…

Far, far and away the greatest throwing of money into the general economy over the past 50 years, have been throw in by way of “asset appreciation.” Resulting from pure money printing. No value-add. With gold at $20/oz, Russian Hill houses would still be at most a few grand. And the Dow between 5 and 10. ALL the rest, every penny any of them are priced above that, is pure, 100% theft via money printing. Then handing of the unearned loot to rank idiots, who are in no way whatsoever any better at allocating ay of it than Mao, Chavez and the lot.

Doesn’t mean doing the redistribution, from productives to connecteds, the Mao way; is necessarily any better. But it is certainly no worse. Communist apparatchiks no doubt suck at capital allocation. But no more so than Warren Buffet, Mrs Watanabe and the rest of the idiot gallery cluttering up “Money Centers”, “ownership societies”, “Home Owner associations” and kangaroo courts; in the just as ultimately totalitarian Central Banking era West. All Deng had to do, was back of the worst Mao excesses a little bit, and then, tah-dah; now “we’re” the new has-been losers on the scrap-heap of history. It ain’t exactly hard to beat up on a bunch idiots so useless and dumb they believe roaches and fungus in their “home” walls somehow create value for them, and that it is a proper job of government to pjotekt all the value those hard working roaches creates for them.

KidHorn

1 year ago

Reply to Lisa_Hooker

If the FED stopped QE, it would be a lot more difficult to run a huge deficit.

Carl_R

1 year ago

Reply to Lisa_Hooker

Exactly! Think of the Fed merely as a juggler. Give him no balls, he has nothing to do, and he can sit and watch the economy hum. Hand him a few balls, he goes to work, and the economy continues to hum. Keep handing him more and more balls, and his job gets harder and harder, until eventually all the balls crash to the floor. Congress keeps thinking “the Fed is doing a great job of keeping all the balls in the air, so they can handle a few more”, and they spend and spend, yet it is inevitable that eventually all those balls will crash to the floor. When they do, is it the fault of the juggler for not being able to handle infinite balls, or the fault of Congress, for giving him infinite balls?

StukiMoi

1 year ago

Reply to Carl_R

Who’s “fault” “it is” is completely irrelevant. Only morons occupy themselves with “holding accountable” and “assigning blame.”

Problem is that there exists a limited set of guys with PRIVILEGED access to cost-free and arbitrary print up money others are forced to work for. It matters not one iota whether those guys happen to “be at fault” for having been assigned that job or not. Or whether it is Congress’ “fault.” Or the “fault” of those who elected congress. Or of those who raised idiots dumb enough to elect idiots that dumb. Etc., etc.

The simple fact that someone with privileged access to print money exists is, period and dull stop, the problem. Hence the solution is to no longer grant anyone, whether “elected” or not, any such PRIVILEGED ability. PRIVILEGED being the key word. Fundamentally the problem is not that Powell can print. But rather that everyone else can not print. In a free country, people are not barred from printing as much money as they can. But, as the founders recognized, legitimate government only accept Specie. Not whatever Powell nor I nor Parker Bros arbitrarily prints up.

ajc1970

1 year ago

Reply to StukiMoi

Things can always get worse

StukiMoi

1 year ago

Reply to ajc1970

Only, absolutely only, if one insists on believing one is meaningfully better off while still 1 inch off the ground after being throw off the Eiffel Tower, compared to an inch later.

8dots

1 year ago

Dr Faust : we will keep US comatose until we know what we don’t know. Trump infusion kept US economy alive in the hospice bed.

The worst dictators blame their opponents for what they are doing. “Revolution Why, How, When” by Robert Hunter, 1940.

Casual_Observer2020

1 year ago

Fwiw I think you are underplaying the power of women’s vote due to overturning of abortion and health care rights. Some seats have already been flipped in red districts and more will. With gas prices on the fall other stuff will also collapse.

I went to our usual upscale Mexican restaurant and ate dinner for a family of 4. 2 months ago two adult entrees ans 2 child entrees and 2 margaritas were $90. On Friday the same meal was now $65. Restaurant was more packed than 2 months ago when it was half empty. Also noticed the owner and his sons were waiting tables instead of hired wait staff. The truth is most businesses find excuses to raise prices and rarely lower them. Falling demand has a way of altering business behavior quickly. The Fed can keep hiking imo and businesses will have to adjust.

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

if the owner and sons were waiting tables then that’s where your cost savings from $90 to $65 came from and it had little to do with the cost of food. The largest problem in the USA moving forward is labor. Too many people are retiring and not enough young people to back fill. I doubt the owner was “gauging” people but probably lost sales and decided to lower prices to get customers back in.

Some states will be better off than others. To find out, start here.

link to census.gov

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

One could always check and see if the local population of stray dogs and cats has diminished. You’re not in Southeast Asia by any chance?

Casual_Observer2020

1 year ago

Pinning stagflation on the Dems is stupid after Trump was the one that started the covid spending. Even Republicants went along with this in 2020 and 2021. Mish sounds like Ted Cruz when he talks about reigning in spending.

KidHorn

1 year ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

The democrats caused US oil production to drop, which contribute to higher gas prices. Which makes everything more expensive.

Carl_R

1 year ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Mish opposed all the crazy spending, but he pointed out that the first stimulus did little damage as the economy was stagnated, but continuing to spend as the economy recovered did progressively more and more damage.

RonJ

1 year ago

If there is any threat to democracy, it is from Democrats. Executive branch Covid shot mandates were autocratic, not democratic.

KidHorn

1 year ago

Reply to RonJ

They accuse republicans of doing what they’re doing. Seems to be working really well.

Sunriver

1 year ago

Stagflation is the future no matter which political party is in ‘power’. Note the word power. That’s what politics was always about.

1) The FED has a lower ceiling on what the FED funds rate can be in 2022 than it did in 1981 (i.e. 16%). I’d suspect the FED funds rate ceiling to be around 4% in 2022 and possibly forever going forward.

2) Issue is, the nominal amount of federal government debt in 2022 is much higher as a percentage of GDP than it was in 1981.

Hence the FED would risk consuming all federal government tax receipts if it was to hike to above a ceiling (i.e. 4%) which is much lower than it was in 1981. There will be no ‘Volcker’ moment in 2022.

3) 2023 will start with the FED funds rates at that 4% mark but indeed, habits are hard to break. The FED will forthright reduce the FED funds rate back to 3% or lower by the end of 2023. Then of course back to 0% at the first sign of panic of any sort.

4) Finally, the true reason Stagflation will be here for some time is fundamentals, not political pandering. The world is no longer flat. It is round.

billybobjr

1 year ago

Reply to Sunriver

Good post and you can tell that the inflation is hurting the governments ability to spend money effectively . Take the f35 fighter and zumwalt class destroyer for instance . The cost was 4-5 times the original so the stopped buying after only 10-30 percent original plan. Same for roads they put off a 1.7 mile extension in my area 113 million in 2018 and the new cost is 217 million almost double . So the government is printing money faster and faster and even though they are spending a lot of money they are getting way less as time goes by and I do mean WAY less . The money being spent in build back better probably won’t get them very much .

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to Sunriver

The World is not round. Or flat.

The World has become some sort of freakin’ amorphous every-changing blob.

Oh, and billybob, it’s not build back better now, it’s build back borrowed.

8dots

1 year ago

The Trout, UK new PM.

8dots

1 year ago

But if Mish is wrong, Joe will put Nancy in her frig. Biden gave Bernie and AOC a bear hug.

He would like to have a goldilocks econ between 2022 and 2024. He looks dumb, have bumps, but he will get rid of the radicals.

Using Trump is the best way to run…Results ==> MAGA 3:0 BLM/Antifa. MAGA save America & Biden.

whirlaway

1 year ago

“If Democrats pick up one more Senate seat then hold the House (unlikely but not impossible), expect a massive outbreak of fiscal nonsense.

None of that is going to happen because if the DONORcrat Party has a majority of N seats in the Senate, there will be (N+1) “rotating villains” who will do exactly what Manchin and SInema did for the last 2 years.

Recall what happened with the 2009-2011 Senate? DONORcrats had 60 seats in the Senate and yet, what was the party’s major “achievement” during that term – in fact its only “achievement” since the passage of Medicare during the time LBJ was President? That’s right. A massive right-wing money-laundering scam to fatten the health insurance companies. That’s what they were able to pass.

bayleaf

1 year ago

Reply to whirlaway

This supports the theory that there is only really one party. We must vote for candidates that acknowledge the DONORcrats and RINOs and deliberately go against the status quo.

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to bayleaf

If voting actually made any difference it would be prohibited.

Karlmarx

1 year ago

Don’t blame Trump. If voters are dumb enough to vote for the idiotic policies of the socialists they deserve what they get.

Bam_Man

1 year ago

It no longer matters which party “controls” anything.

Total socio-economic collapse is already baked into the cake for 2023-2025.

Do what you must to survive it.

bayleaf

1 year ago

Reply to Bam_Man

One of parties would be a step in the right direction at least, for whatever it’s worth, in the long run.

StukiMoi

1 year ago

Reply to bayleaf

Nope.

Not one single step, in anything even resembling the right direction, have been taken, by either party for over a century. That won’t change.

Casual_Observer2020

1 year ago

Reply to Bam_Man

No. It will just be a deflationary collapse in 2023 as the Fed hikes. The Fed has stated the people should be prepared to be unemployed.

Jack

1 year ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Saying is different than doing.

bayleaf

1 year ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

I would welcome deflation

bayleaf

1 year ago

Trump derangement syndrome aside, who would vote for loss of sovereignty and recession/stagflation other than people on-the-take or those who hate their life and country?

Zardoz

1 year ago

Live by the kook, die by the kook.

bayleaf

1 year ago

Characterizing Trump’s endorsements as “stop the steal” candidates is disingenuous. They all know there’s nothing that can be done about the 2020 election other than winning upcoming elections. They’re just MAGA candidates.

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to bayleaf

… who will cry fraud when they lose.

bayleaf

1 year ago

Reply to Zardoz

Who will riot and destroy liberal cities when they win?

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to bayleaf

Angry tears are their MO.

bayleaf

1 year ago

Reply to Zardoz

SMH, I’m talking about liberals destroying their own cities when MAGA candidates win obviously.

bayleaf

1 year ago

Looks pretty bleak in PA given the choice between Zo and Fetterman. But I’d go with a “stop the steal” candidate rather than a madman any day.

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to bayleaf

Same thing.

vanderlyn

1 year ago

Rump losing 2020 and campaigning in mid terms is unique. Hoover did it in 1934 as he was mad he lost to FDR and campaigned as a loser president against new deal. he helped to destroy the R part of the time for long long time.

JG1170

1 year ago

Reply to vanderlyn

Not going to happen this time, though. Most R’s still LOVE Trump and even if most don’t feel the election was “literally” stolen, they feel it was unfairly taken from him due to the media bias of covering up just how corrupt and degenerate the Biden clan was and still is.

vanderlyn

1 year ago

a very decent take.

wmjack50

1 year ago

Who runs the Federal Government –the unelected 90% Democrat Administrative State that is protected by the Civil Service rules from the spoils system for removal. They spend the money that Congress enacts.

Trump caused great terror in this Administrative State by his refusal to staff up all position (their children needed jobs as they graduated from Ivy league Schools) And his Schedule F that would remove managers (50,000) from civil service protections allowing their removal for refusing to follow his policies. The Administrative State is the fourth branch of Fed. Government and operates much like the CCP in China Unfortunately Biden Canceled this Schedule F on day two.

Captain Ahab

1 year ago

Reply to wmjack50

Hit the nail on the head!!! Democrats control the Fed government–which is why Trump cannot be tolerated.

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

I think you meant to say that the Democrats control the Federal bureaucracy.

Especially all of the lower levels that do the “work.”

Matt3

1 year ago

Reply to wmjack50

Agree. The DC area is rich and produces nothing. It is the skim on the system. Both parties donors are part of the system. If one party wins, their donors get a bigger share. No one cuts spending as that would cut the skim. I’m guessing the skim is in excess of 15% and maybe 25%.

That’s a trillion dollar business! The MAGA agenda is a threat to this just as was the Tea Party. Therefore, they will be destroyed.

Live life and enjoy. There is nothing you can do to change this. As George Carlin said “It’s a big club and you ain’t in it”!

vanderlyn

1 year ago

Reply to Matt3

yes. agree. the trump family of con men were different. they were honest and wouldn’t skim. this is obvious sarcasm for the wit nits.

bayleaf

1 year ago

Reply to vanderlyn

Lol, not at all… it’s about choosing the lesser of two evils. Always was, always is.

Jack

1 year ago

Reply to vanderlyn

Do not ignore the Trump con-women – they need their credit.

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to vanderlyn

At least the incumbent crook had the prescience to set up the skim outside the US.

billybobjr

1 year ago

Reply to Matt3

Highest concentration of high dollar private schools in the nation .The area around DC is the richest in the nation . They don’t

send their kids to public schools that is for you . Just like the ones pushing climate change producing carbon at rates 1000 times

higher than the average person and then exempting their private jets and yachts from carbon taxes ect. You need to buy more

blankets so they can continue their lifestyle . People that buy into this crap without demanding them first make the sacrifices

are fools . Yet we have a lot of them that vote .

MPO45

1 year ago

With high quality republican candidates like Dr. Oz (watch video) how could the repubs possibly lose?

link to youtube.com

I don’t know about you guys but I always head down to an improperly named grocery store for crudites, buy broccoli and asparagus to dip in avocado and slather salsa on top just like all normal mid-westerners. Of course, then we wash it all down with tequila like most people here do. Clearly Dr. Oz is an ordinary person that can relate to all of us here in the Midwest, how could he lose?

Doug78

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

I have never seen Nancy Pelosi buy groceries but I do know what brand of ice cream she prefers.

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to Doug78

Neapolitan?

Doug78

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

No, Sicilian. Actually she loves Jeni’s Splendid Ice Cream just like all the little people in the country. She truly is “one of us” and is the secret to her success in San Francisco.

Captain Ahab

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

If OZ had 19.5% of a brain he would know crudités, from the French. A ‘crudite’ is a person who enjoys the crude, or crud (a deposit or incrustation of filth, grease, or refuse, a contemptible person)–take your pick. /sarc–Crudite is not a word

Doug78

1 year ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

His rival, John Fetterman, looks like someone I wouldn’t want to meet in a dark street.

bayleaf

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

Many people seem blinded by their hatred of Trump to the point of voting against their best interests. Either that or they are “on the take”. Is Fetterman actually denying there is food inflation here?

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to bayleaf

Trump bigotry is not in my best interest. Neither is coup, insurrection, and incessant lying. I will however vote Republican under ONE single condition: The GOP must adopt on its platform a pledge that if elected they WILL eliminate social security and medicare. This is the only way I will ever vote Republican.

I want to stick it to the boomers, most of who are Trump supporters, because we all know they hate socialism so they should reap what they sow. Getting boomers back to work will also eliminate the labor shortage – it’s win-win.

billybobjr

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

Sad that you haven’t figured out that Roosevelt and the dems put in S&S and LBJ and the dems put in Medicare and you want to blame

the other side . Ignoring the truth is what you are doing they had overwhelming majorities in both cases along with the presidency . So

the boomers weren’t even born yet when social security was voted in and they were not of voting age when Medicare was voted in so lets

blame them for this what a fool you are .

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to billybobjr

What the heck are you talking about? And who cares who created SS and Medicare? The question at hand is:

Do you like socialism (e.g. medicare and SS)? or not?

If you like socialism (medicare and SS) then vote Democrat.

If you don’t like socialism (medicare and SS) then Republicans should eliminate it. If republicans don’t eliminate medicare/ss then they are socialist too.

Which is it? Go on record now. I catalog everyone’s entry and will use it later when you twist yourself into a gordian knot.

billybobjr

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

What are you talking about ? The system confiscated money , the boomers didn’t have a choice . So your asking after they have

paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in S&S and Medicare over their employment years to say no I don’t want it because it is

socialism you are way off here . That would be a question if you had and option at the beginning to opt in or out and keep all

contributions and fend for yourself but there WAS no option, so no fool is going to opt not to take it and no politician is going there .

It is like younger people now they get no choice they have to pay whether or not you like it or not . So yes send me the benefits due me that I have paid into it over all the years the agreement the government made not me and I will fend for myself .

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to billybobjr

It was George W. Bush that added a “prescription plan” to medicare.

link to ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.

No way in hell were you paying for that benefit your whole life. And no way in hell did you pay enough into it that you’ll get out. And every year more and more benefits are added to medicare and social security. I won’t list them all here because I think you like SS/Medicare, a democrat socialist program. Thank you for establishing yourself as an endorser of socialist programs like medicare and social security, it has been noted.

billybobjr

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

It has been noted that you are clueless . Millions of people have paid into those programs and never collected a penny because they

died before they reached the benefit age requirement . Yes some collect more and some collect none that is the system they were forced

into . Whether you like S&S or not is irrelevant rep or dem you have no choice the government forces you to pay for it . Your trying to say that

if you take social security you are for socialism a democrat sponsored program and that is a false claim . See your statement (And no way in hell did you pay enough into it that you’ll get out) many people never get out what they paid in so that statement is false as are most of the statements you make .

TexasTim65

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

What’s your proposed plan after eliminating these items?

You think 10s of millions of people getting no SS are just going to quietly starve to death in homelessness?

First, those without medicare will simply show up at hospital emergency rooms for everything. It’s flat illegal for hospitals to turn away anyone who shows up. So they will have to treat tons more patients with no insurance at all. They then either go broke or get bailed out at government levels / raise prices dramatically on the rest of us with insurance to pay for their losses. Ultimately everyone has to pay.

Second, those who get SS cut off, will be homeless and starving. They will simply break into homes, grocery stores etc for food and shelter. You’ll be forced to kill them all in cold blood (you think you and everyone else has stomach for that?). You can’t jail them because there aren’t enough facilities and besides, jailing someone costs more than just sending them SS 🙂

So what’s your plan?

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to TexasTim65

My plan is to move overseas, haven’t I been clear about that numerous times? But you also don’t get the ruse either. I have to make my point in terms “bubba” can understand. Thanks for helping make the point.

TexasTim65

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

Where overseas if you don’t mind my asking.

I’ve looked but have yet to find any place I’m comfortable betting ~20 years of retirement on.

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to TexasTim65

My plan starts with visiting countries with digital nomad visas. You can find the list here:

link to nomadsembassy.com

At the top of my *secondary* list are

A. Portugal – going there in a few months to check it out.

B. Spain – Working on digital nomad visa now. Would be my top pick except for the high tax rates – hoping their digital visa will have tax breaks.

C. Costa Rica – already been there and I liked it – beach, mountains, rain forest, and nice people.

D. Australia – Have been there and loved it – Sydney would be my target although the visa situation is complicated.

there are other primary countries which I won’t list because I don’t want people flocking to them. They have very low cost, strong property rights and food variety that I’m looking for as well as other perks which I won’t list.

After I pick one, i will do a year or two (most digital visas are for two years). If I like the country, I will apply/convert to residency visa. I plan to be overseas by May of 2023 or sooner.

Honestly I think the best plan though is to keep mobile. The world seems intent on blowing itself up so I may need to keep moving from hotspot to hotspot.

TexasTim65

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

Thanks. Had not heard of digital nomad VISA’s till now. Can your spouse go too (assuming they not working on their own digital nomad VISA)?

I spent a few months in Australia in 03-05 time for work. Great country but every bit as expensive as US if not more and their handling of Covid totally turned me off of them forever. I’d visit again but never live there permanently.

I like Costa Rica too for all the reasons you stated. Just nervous about all the central and south American countries. Many places that were great when I was a kid decades ago (Venezuela for example) are not any more. Others like Chile have gone from bad to great to now looking dismal again with the leftists taking control and threatening to nationalize everything. So while I’d be comfortable with 2-3 years there I am not sure I want to bet on spending 20 or more especially when I’m going to be old and vulnerable.

I’ve never been to Spain or Portugal but everyone I know who has raves about it. Problem is, it’s going to be every bit as expensive as the US or Australia.

My guess is for safety reasons we’ll need a 1st world country which means expensive living. Sigh. Maybe I need to embrace my cold weather heritage (grew up in Canada) and move somewhere like Iceland where it’s not populated and not likely to be invaded and you can probably be left alone and if Global Warming is really a thing in 20 years it might be a lot nicer place to live with tons of geothermal energy.

MPO45

1 year ago

Reply to TexasTim65

Iceland is a one of the primary – you got me but there are others. As for wife visa, I have no idea. Both my job and wife can be remote which is why it isn’t a concern. Portugal, right now, is the cheapest place to live in Europe but too many Americans are moving there and driving prices up which is why it’s a secondary now.

As for crime, there is more murder/shootings in America than virtually anywhere else in the world. I saw a comparison of yearly murders in Brazil vs the US and US was 3x. That may seem hard to believe but just factor in all the mass shootings and it makes sense.

Lisa_Hooker

1 year ago

Reply to MPO45

You are confusing political thought with religion.

Six000mileyear

1 year ago

I’m worried less about an economic decline and more about an accelerating loss of freedoms if Democrats win the Senate.

Captain Ahab

1 year ago

If the recession turns into a major global crash, maybe having Democrats in total control would be a good thing.

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

A target for the tantrums.

whirlaway

1 year ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

Exactly. The Dumbocrat fans of the DONORcrat Party better be careful what they wish for, because if they get it – 1. The party will not be able to accomplish anything for the people because they are essentially yet another corporatist party, 2. There will be a global recession for the better part of 2023 and 2024, and 3. The current Ukraine mess would have completely unfolded into an unmitigated disaster in the next 2 years.

That would be a great environment for someone like Trump (who correctly observed that Germany was too dependent on Russian oil and gas years ago), to run in.

Matt3

1 year ago

If the McConnel wing of the republican party wins – it doesn’t mean anything. The Mitch red wave would be worthless as we would get all the same crap. Only difference is the Republican large donors would get their share of the grift.

Thetenyear

1 year ago

Oz is not a “Stop The Steel!” guy. He is a “hold your nose and vote” guy. Still head scratching over the Oz pick. I think Trump’s other picks will do fine and Oz might surprise if MAGA shows up in force. Oz’s opponent is really weak and has a bad heart. Everyone loves Mastriano for Gov but no one is excited for Oz.

LibertarianAnon

1 year ago

I think you overestimate the average Joe’s disdain for Trump and underestimate Joe Biden’s disdain for American free expression. I personally haven’t voted for Republican in almost two decades. Voting Republican the rest of Biden’s term after his goddamn Hitlerian speech last week.

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to LibertarianAnon

Biden says: respect the constitution and stop threatening people. Trumplings: OMG HItler!!!1!

LibertarianAnon

1 year ago

Reply to Zardoz

I was a F*CK TRUMP guy, but I guess now I’m a Trumpling. I have a problem with the President of the United States identifying half the country as extremist terrorists. The only right way of thinking is his way of thinking is how I took his words. That is not respecting the constitution and he most certainly threatened a hell of a lot of people.

As a non-MAGA type, I came away from his speech wondering who will be next. MAGA today… Libertarians tomorrow?

And yes, Biden gave off 1931 Hitlerian vibes that night. Sorry you are too blinded by your ideology to see it.

JRM

1 year ago

I predict a red wave, now that Biden has declared half of America, enemies of the state!!!

Biden just gave Republicats a big propaganda tool!!!!

Ron Cataldi

1 year ago

Reply to JRM

You don’t get it… why did you lose 2020? Because most Americans despise MAGAs. Nobody is mad about Biden calling out MAGAs fascists, except MAGAs.

Karlmarx

1 year ago

Reply to Ron Cataldi

I’d rather have fascists than maoists

StukiMoi

1 year ago

Reply to Karlmarx

Which is exactly no reason whatsoever for cheering for either one. There’s no more surefire way of ensuring America will forever remain nothing but the undifferentiated sewer it currently is, than continuing to fall for the nonsense that picking favorites among turds is some form of meaningful, important even, civic duty.

Zardoz

1 year ago

Reply to JRM

He gave angry armed man babies something to cry about.

Huge Stagflation Risk In Play on the Midterm Election Results

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