Musk having cut his workforce in half, followed by Zucerberg cutting his by what, about a quarter (?) is ominous for a whole lot of people in tech companies who “work” but who add no value. Tech has had a very long run, and anyone with miles on the tires knows how fat and stupid companies get when the sun is shining.
I dipped into Twitter for a while and saw a few things first hand. One is that there are a whole lot of privileged California layabouts, soon to be California layoffabouts, who thought that Twitter was one of those NGOs out to save the world. Um, no, and being head of the equity and inclusion department adds no value, nor did an extra vacation day per month just because. Or covid? Bleeeech. Methinks there’s a whole lot of deadwood throughout Sillycon Valley ready to be thrown onto the burn pile.
Past that, in about 10 days on Twitter, I realized the nature of addiction. Facebook is too much coffee, but Twitter is meth 24 hours. No wonder it’s so popular with the “news” media. Those people are sickos to begin with, naturals for Twitter. I’ve been online for about 35 years, and have always managed to learn something even on terrible sites. Until Twitter. Honest: No value whatsoever. Other than coming up close and personal to the nature of addiction, I learned nothing at all, which for me is extremely rare.
When I was a kid, I’d hear about meth after it killed the San Francisco Summer of Love: “Speed kills.” Kids, “Twitter is death.” LOL
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
This feels similar to 2000 recession that started with tech layoffs after years of malinvestment in Y2K and a rate cutting cycle that was overdone by Greenspan. Once the bloodletting starts, consumer spending will drop like a rock and lead to more layoffs in all sectors. I expect 2023 to be similar to 2001 before 9/11.
I think it’s going to look like 2008-2009, or 1980-81.
Gotgold
1 year ago
Wait for the dissipation of Cloud computing.
Most of them are zombies with no path to profitability anytime soon. There are a few that will be bought by Oracle or MSFT but most are primed for the chopping block
I don’t see how more than 2 or 3 can exist. Economy of scale is intense in that business.
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Some might attribute the Twitter layoffs as an outlier because Musk overpaid. In fact, he paid the right price predicated on the continuous printing where even loss assets with market brand name have value.
He made the wrong bet for now, but time will tell.
Billy
1 year ago
Zillow’s forecast for San Jose doesn’t seem to reflect these massive layoffs. I wonder how many they are laying off.
in movies from the 80s and maybe 90s such as Back to the Future II and The Fifth Element, mass firings are always done through mass comms like a email or notification. It is always amazing how hollywood gets the future so right and so wrong.
Corporate clones don’t have balls. That’s why they always crumble the instant some woke nothing, who represents a group of nobodies who dont buy jack. I actually don’t see large corporations keeping the gains they got when the powers that cower decided that covid couldn’t spread inside the tightly packed big box stores. People aren’t going back to them to work for good reasons. That quarterly profits at all costs is biting many in the rear right now. In the big stores, only the nobodies care about keeping their customer base. Management doesn’t. Many channels are devoted to retail employees and their nightmare stories about the ceo’s who are all about burning both their customer base and screwing over their employees.
You are really old school. You probably still remember when the customer service was answered by human operator, and not by automated VR giving you the run around.
One of the main arguments for central banking, was specifically that self proclaimed “business men” were too squeamish about doing that directly. Preferring their employees’/suppliers’ wages/prices to be debased, so that the “great business men” could instead preen around pretending to offer “raises.”
Even since Nixon took America full retard: Pretty much the only American companies who has done anything of any significance, have paid people in equity. That’s not a bug. Fixed nominal salaries, fixed prices and fixed interest rates, all are.
I look at it the other way around. All of these outrageously overprivileged Karens are going to learn the downside of their remote work fantasy. It’s a whole lot easier to get rid of people who you never saw or knew. Remote work is somewhat okay for organizations that were cohesive to begin with, but if it endures it’s going to be God’s own social and economic time bomb / death ray.
8dots
1 year ago
The startup layoff is shrinking because 1,000 co are already in coma. Singleton from the 50’s : buyback today, because prices will be higher
tomorrow. Peter Drucker from the 50’s/60’s : chop the lowest 10% annually no matter what. SF accumulated them, rewarding them. 100% of Meta $96B buybacks went to employees. 90% of Googl $156B buybacks went to employees. // If u borrow $1B at zero rates and the value of your co is rising by $6B – $10B u are a great ceo. U should be rewarded, along with the rest. JP screwed up the zero rates system.
Low rate debt is like sleeping on your back on a narrow ledge of a cliff face.
Everything can be fine as long as you don’t roll over.
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
With the average 30yr mortgage at 7.29% … lenders will be laying off.
“Mortgage volumes at Wells Fargo slowed further in recent weeks, leaving some workers idle and sparking concerns the lender will need to cut more employees as the U.S. housing slump deepens.
The bank had about 18,000 loans in its retail origination pipeline in the early weeks of the fourth quarter, according to people with knowledge of the company’s figures. That is down as much as 90% from a year earlier, when the Covid pandemic-fueled housing boom was in full swing, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about internal matters.”
A few thousand un-employees is nothing. Imagine what will happen to existing mortgage paper. Near-zero interest rates are a b_tch for long term mortgages when rates/yields go up.
Right now, I’m worried more about the fixed rate 30yr ‘bond holders’. Pensions etc. going belly up and getting a bail out in the trillions–inflation round three.
I don’t see it. Maybe some foaming the runways … after significant haircuts.
When things “go” (and they will) … blows up will overwhelm government response. Sure, bail out THAT pension … but what about THIS pension … oh, GM on the ropes … Illinois going down … you get the picture.
I’m not sure a pension bailout would cause a big burst of inflation. It’s a trillion dollar liability over 20-30 years, not all at once. And if those assets have gone poof, that is deflationary. Printing the missing cash flow should just hold things even.
Those planned payouts are based on pre-Covid life expectancies as well. If life spans are shorter, (excess deaths are higher) then then the payouts will be less and the liabilities smaller. Actuaries are going to have an interesting 30 years, that I do not doubt.
8dots
1 year ago
A mid level plunge through large holes sieve already started, first slowly, then faster. Mgt : we are no longer going to keep useless layers. The pyramid above Indian programmers are 25% – 33% of that in US. Wall street love shrinking o/h. Saying “No” to the infantile consumers will come from the top. The gov will blame the other side. The debt ceiling is rising to the 36/38 floor, before rising higher. There will be a zombie “arrangement” to avoid debt recycle, to avoid gov default. If u think that u can live on gov goodies ==> u are wrong !
From a bot.
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
Freight Waves dude:
The trucking market continues to weaken, with the first part of November having one of the biggest volume drops of any non-holiday period all cycle.
Why is this happening now: retailers have everything in stock for the holidays and no need to replenish inventories.
The rise in interest rates to normal crashes tech valuations because of the valuation formula investment banks use. After this decline, debt is now more expensive, but equity is waaay more expensive. Like 2x-3x more expensive. The worm has turned, and tech is forced to change basic strategy and produce positive cash flow instead of chasing market share.
Without super cheap capital, execs will find a different way to get share price up and their bonuses at the end of the year. On the private side, investor boards will be very judicious in adding capital to riskier growth companies. More than usual will be allowed to fail. Some will become zombies and struggle without the ability to feed on additional investment rounds. Investor exits are delayed too.
Silicon Valley “real estate”, including rents, needs 75%+, for the US tech industry to have any shot at slowing the rush for Asia.
Esclaro
1 year ago
All these idiotic comments about how the Boomers left their children nothing except debt and poor educations. All my seven children are millionaires who live better than I do (not that I am complaining – I live well). What a bunch of whiners.
You have a great anecdote to share. However, anecdotes are limited in scope. Here is a statistical fact that will impact the future. IQ scores have dropped steadily since the 1980s. Here is one source from CNN (thee bastion of the truth) link to cnn.com
It’s an interesting article and some of what they’ve measured and what they conclude doesn’t add up.
For example they say after 1975 scores went down and they blame environmental causes. Yet after 1975, the Western world went away from leaded gasoline which put tons of lead pollution into urban populations for decades. There have been many other studies that have shown that intelligence has increased since then because lead is no longer polluting the environment and we are all healthier for it. So something doesn’t make sense in what they’ve found.
Also they talk about education mattering. That makes very little sense. IQ is something you are born with, not something you learn. I’ve done tests (and I suspect many others here have too) and education doesn’t matter much to the types of questions you answer. Either you understand innately or you don’t.
Lastly, IQ does are really good job of measuring one part of intelligence. It measures convergence, the ability to find patterns and converge on a solution. But it doesn’t measure a different part which is creativity (your artistic side) which is how people solve problems that they’ve never seen before or how artists create art/music etc.
Pattern recognition is the basis of how we understand the world. Using patterns to ‘converge on a solution’ is the creative aspect. Most people do ‘convergence’ in a logical process, simplifying by focusing on parts of the problem (aka atomistic), adapting the solution to solve the problem parts. True creativity goes through a different process–a holistic integration, often as an ‘ah-hah’ moment–the ‘idea’ driving the whole appears out of nowhere.
Those extra-creative ideas have some things in common, such as what you are doing when/where they occur. The ‘classic’ situations are :
1. Upon just waking up in the morning.
2. Showering
3. Driving a car–usually long distance
4. Walking (not running)
Watching TV, doing facebook, talking, or sitting at your desk seldom generates ideas beyond what you are already thinking about. One exception being if the desk is exceptionally messy with idea-generation ‘stuff’.
Does education assist intelligence? It depends on the education. Intelligence will atrophy if not exercised regularly.
“All these idiotic comments about how the Boomers left their children nothing except debt and poor educations.”
You got it all wrong: They left OTHER PEOPLE’s children with nothing.
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
“Layoffs momentum keeps building”
…
Absolutely. My only question … can Wile E. Coyote stay airborne till 2023?
Kevin Logan Jr – Marketing/Blockchain Recruiter on Twitter: “Tech companies fire their contractor workforce first, that’s why you aren’t seeing massive layoffs with these misses in earnings… I’m seeing these messages daily now from the largest tech orgs. This one from #Amazon. link to t.co” / Twitter
Mostly you fire those you’ve identified as slackers or those lacking in skills first.
Tech contractors don’t get “fired” as easily as they are hired for needed expertise not available within the company.
Sunriver
1 year ago
Leisure and Hospitality job openings up! The Boomers retired with government pensions and a FED that created absurd equity/house valuations. Now the Boomers want to be served! Fully expect continued illegal border crossings to help in the serving.
What a horrible gift the boomers have given to their grandchildren. It’s a 4 letter word known as D.E.B.T.
I generally agree, but I don’t think boomers retiring explains it. Maybe a little. I think it’s mainly people have realized they’re better off living off the government than flipping burgers for $12/hr.
Please explain to us all how we can quit our jobs and live off of the government. I keep hearing this narrative and very rarely see how it’s done. You clearly are an expert so please explain.
It goes by various names, as extensions of social welfare, but under the guise of economic theories. MMT is the usual one–see here: link to en.wikipedia.org
Agreed with Captain here. Keep in mind that the two BIG salient points about MMT that Stephanie Kelton will never talk much about are:
#1 To control the oversupply of money that results in inflation, you must raise taxes. Absolutely not going to happen! Like NEVER!
#2 The Fed moves under the direct control on Congress. I’d say that stands a chance under the right circumstances.
IMHO, I believe the Fed & Congress have moved about 80% of the way towards MMT-based management of the US economy.
The absolute BIGGEST question mark, assuming there’s a substantial recession in the next 18 months, is will the government renew rent relief & mortgage forbearance? More so than ANYTHING else done during the pandemic, these are the BIG MMT-based, unprecedented heavy hitters.
amerikan born, boomers, most self centered whiners in centuries. it was the easiest of times when we all came of age. produced both arrogant and ignorant, and quite narrow minded.
The ‘gift’ the boomers gave their children and grandchildren was education in a school system that espoused liberal-progressive idealism.
KidHorn
1 year ago
Been working in IT for close to 35 years now. Everything from group management to coder. Lots of different companies and industries. Every company could get rid of at least 1/3rd of the staff and more would get done. Every company has lots of mid level managers under names like project manager or account manager. 90% women who hate computers. And probably 90% democrats. The jobs exist because IT people don’t know how to communicate. We’re all a bunch of retards who can’t speak. They setup meetings and write requirements. They don’t allow IT people to speak at meetings because then people would realize it makes a lot more sense to tell the IT person directly what they want and they’ll just do it. I’ve been to countless meetings where I or my group knew exactly what to do, and it would take 5 minutes, but we had to wait for meeting notes with action points which meant more meetings. Probably made it cost 100x more than it should have. And the requirements are almost always useless. Way too vague. And the problem could be addressed with a short meeting with the client, but that would never be allowed. We always had to go through a client representative who didn’t understand the issue.
“Every company has lots of mid level managers under names like project manager or account manager.”
As a former techie, I agree! Lots of people wheeling those little carry-ons with laptops in them, trying to look important. Ask them a few questions and their answers will reveal that they are doing nothing that is actually vital to the company.
My experience as an IT Proj Mgr is much different than you describe, although there are some similarities. When gathering requirements for system system upgrades, changes, etc. , design and implementation were never to be implied by the business. Only those doing the actual coding could discuss design, so requirements have to be somewhat vague. Makes for some lively discussions during requirements review meetings and UAT. These meetings work best when I act as mediator between the business and IT as I’m pretty good at cutting though nonsense and keeping the discussion rolling while making sure we avoid scope creep. Things get ridiculous when Product Managers get involved, they are borderline useless. Their role seems to be nothing more than to impede progress by creating artificial blockers, and there are more and more Product Managers dragging their MBAs into meetings and blowing hot air about ‘the psychology around pixel size concerning CTA buttons’. The artificial drag they add to projects costs so many lost $$$$.
FYI, humans perceive and understand the world primarily in visual terms. Do you SEE what I mean? Our visual sense is everywhere in our lexicon for a reason. You want market-successful software; forget your scope creep.
The ‘graphic interface’ has come a long way since punch cards; and it will continue to be important with VR, AI, etc. The big problem is most business-trained peeople do not understand aspects such as visual perception, but mouth the words because it is fashionable to do so.
In my experience, high tech companies would rather die than listen to actual users. Now, I fully understand that actual users can be real blockheads, but there’s information in that too. We just put in a Starlink dish, and someone at Starlink either listened to users or had the irritating experience of being one. It was a pain to sink a pole in the ground and run the cable through a wall and into the house, but once that was done, I plugged in the router, set up with a user name and password, and voila! It just works. Wow, who knew? Not Hewlett Packard and Microsoft, which would sell me more computers if it didn’t take forever to set them up.
Every technology outfit should examine Starlink as an example of how to do it right. I cannot praise them highly enough. Tesla has its issues (to put it mildly), but Starlink is the simplest high tech device I have ever used in a few decades of using high tech devices. They seem to understand that the customer should not be expected to be obsessed. To this customer, it’s just another refrigerator, and I expect it to work without having to learn everything there is to know about refrigerators.
Do these high tech companies ever just test it out on potential customers? Not too often, it would seem.
I agree as well, but I’m not sure why you threw Libs and Women in there though. One of the biggest reasons I left IT besides the stress was that it had become packed with right-wịng lọuṯs. Many occupying that 1/3 of staff of which you speak. You are right though they can’t think for themselves and most haven’t progressed mentally beyond of the age of 16.
I am retired, but one biggie with me while employed was to admit what I didn’t know, and ask for help. See what a no-b.s. Midwestern upbringing will do? Anyway, in one place, everyone around me would constantly dump on the I.T. department. I went exactly the other way. I’d find things that satisfied me, and then I’d say so. Guess who got every issue fixed within 15 minutes? LOL. Now that I’ve moved to the countryside, I try to be extra humble.
There are so many things I never knew. And there are so many people around here just waiting to be asked to help. When we had 12 feet of snow last winter, I was saved multiple times because I was the guy who would admit that he knows nothing and needs help. The sense of entitlement that I’ve seen in various places has always boggled my mind.
Meetings? The minute there are more than 3 people in a corporate meeting, two things happen: the collective I.Q. starts declining because someone will insist on challenging the underlying assumptions and agenda (which can work, but not in a corporate meeting), and the meeting becomes the display of corporate rank. I avoided meetings every chance I got.
High tech. This is a silly anecdote, but it has stayed with me. I will never forget a meeting with VCs on Sand Hill Road. Walked in, and two of them were playing ping pong on a big table in the lobby. Children who got lucky on 1 in 10 bull market bets and thought they were smart and fun and could F off. Shall we say that it clashed with my Midwestern cultural foundations? Yes, we can say that. When I was later offered a job in Silicon Valley, I declined. I was polite, but it took some discipline. LOL
whirlaway
1 year ago
Most of these tech firms are pro-DONORcrat Party. So, I would guess that they are holding off on the layoffs until after the elections tomorrow.
After the polls close tomorrow? Let the diarrhea begin! LOL.
Large IT operations are run similar to the US military from my experience. Lots of waste and worthless mid level management but it does work and works well by and large. Get rid of too much redundancy, mid level managers and there is not much backstop to avert serious problems. “Slow is smooth and smooth is fast” as the old military saying goes.
A good example is a large military convoy with all sorts of vehicles. Sure, they could get to their destination fast without much management but who takes into account this one new bridge on the route that is 2 inches too low to pass for one vehicle? Who makes everyone aware to not take that route? Who takes into account spacing of vehicles to mitigate a low weight capacity of several bridges? This is what middle management does or, should be doing. By going slower with a large project, the project ends up going faster than it would jumping in and “fixing” things in 5 minutes.
My comment was about layoffs in general. However, I don’t disagree. Any complex task needs planning from strategic to tactical levels. The real issue is how decisions are made as more complicating factors enter the process. With task specialization inherent in large organizations, fewer people understand the big picture. The retreat from Afghanistan was a great example.
That’s why we moved to the countryside 5 years ago. We didn’t know the details, but we could tell something bad was coming. Seattle was going downhill before anyone ever thought of a virus, that’s for sure. When those BLM riots started, we’d sit here and congratulate ourselves for having seen the handwriting on the wall. We’re far enough away from any of that now, and quite well provided for in the dimensions that will matter. I think ’23 is going to be a very rough year.
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I dipped into Twitter for a while and saw a few things first hand. One is that there are a whole lot of privileged California layabouts, soon to be California layoffabouts, who thought that Twitter was one of those NGOs out to save the world. Um, no, and being head of the equity and inclusion department adds no value, nor did an extra vacation day per month just because. Or covid? Bleeeech. Methinks there’s a whole lot of deadwood throughout Sillycon Valley ready to be thrown onto the burn pile.
Past that, in about 10 days on Twitter, I realized the nature of addiction. Facebook is too much coffee, but Twitter is meth 24 hours. No wonder it’s so popular with the “news” media. Those people are sickos to begin with, naturals for Twitter. I’ve been online for about 35 years, and have always managed to learn something even on terrible sites. Until Twitter. Honest: No value whatsoever. Other than coming up close and personal to the nature of addiction, I learned nothing at all, which for me is extremely rare.
When I was a kid, I’d hear about meth after it killed the San Francisco Summer of Love: “Speed kills.” Kids, “Twitter is death.” LOL
“Mortgage volumes at Wells Fargo slowed further in recent weeks, leaving some workers idle and sparking concerns the lender will need to cut more employees as the U.S. housing slump deepens.
The bank had about 18,000 loans in its retail origination pipeline in the early weeks of the fourth quarter, according to people with knowledge of the company’s figures. That is down as much as 90% from a year earlier, when the Covid pandemic-fueled housing boom was in full swing, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about internal matters.”
Why is this happening now: retailers have everything in stock for the holidays and no need to replenish inventories.
As a former techie, I agree! Lots of people wheeling those little carry-ons with laptops in them, trying to look important. Ask them a few questions and their answers will reveal that they are doing nothing that is actually vital to the company.
There are so many things I never knew. And there are so many people around here just waiting to be asked to help. When we had 12 feet of snow last winter, I was saved multiple times because I was the guy who would admit that he knows nothing and needs help. The sense of entitlement that I’ve seen in various places has always boggled my mind.
Meetings? The minute there are more than 3 people in a corporate meeting, two things happen: the collective I.Q. starts declining because someone will insist on challenging the underlying assumptions and agenda (which can work, but not in a corporate meeting), and the meeting becomes the display of corporate rank. I avoided meetings every chance I got.
High tech. This is a silly anecdote, but it has stayed with me. I will never forget a meeting with VCs on Sand Hill Road. Walked in, and two of them were playing ping pong on a big table in the lobby. Children who got lucky on 1 in 10 bull market bets and thought they were smart and fun and could F off. Shall we say that it clashed with my Midwestern cultural foundations? Yes, we can say that. When I was later offered a job in Silicon Valley, I declined. I was polite, but it took some discipline. LOL
After the polls close tomorrow? Let the diarrhea begin! LOL.