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Impact of Three Rounds of Stimulus on Retail Spending Dollars in Pictures

The stimulus impacts are over already. What's ahead?
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Advance Retail Sales - Detail 2021-05A

Advance Retail Sales - Select Categories

Advance Retail Sales - Select Categories 2021-05

Observations and Expectations

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  • The overall spending jump and motor vehicle sales pre-Covid to now are not sustainable.  No more stimulus is coming.  
  • In September, the Federal unemployment benefits expire. 23 Republican states have already terminated benefits early. 
  • I expect some tax hikes even if minimal. 

Looking ahead, the fourth quarter and 2022 GDP and will be much weaker than most expect.