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Impact of Three Rounds of Stimulus on Retail Spending Dollars in Pictures

The stimulus impacts are over already. What's ahead?
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Advance Retail Sales - Detail 2021-05A

Advance Retail Sales - Select Categories

Advance Retail Sales - Select Categories 2021-05

Observations and Expectations

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  • The overall spending jump and motor vehicle sales pre-Covid to now are not sustainable.  No more stimulus is coming.  
  • In September, the Federal unemployment benefits expire. 23 Republican states have already terminated benefits early. 
  • I expect some tax hikes even if minimal. 

Looking ahead, the fourth quarter and 2022 GDP and will be much weaker than most expect.

Mish

Retail Sales Jump Due to Hurricane Impact: GDP Impact?

Retail sales in September increased 1.6 percent from August. Hurricane impacts are clearly in play.

Exploring the "Dollar Crash" Thesis in Pictures

People have been predicting a crash in the US dollar for something like forever. Let's investigate another crash thesis.