Import and Export Prices Plunge in July on Energy Related Swing

The long-term charts tell a more compelling, and inflationary story.

Import and Export Prices for July 2026

Please consider the BLS Import and Export Price Report for July 2026.

Import Prices Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year

Import Price Details

Import prices fell 0.4 percent in July following a decline of 0.3 percent in June and an advance of 1.7 percent in May. The July decrease in U.S. import prices was the largest monthly decline since the price index fell 0.5 percent in May 2025. Despite the monthly decline, prices for U.S. imports increased 5.9 percent from July 2025 to July 2026.
Fuel Imports: Prices for import fuel fell 7.2 percent in July following a decrease of 3.8 percent in June and an increase of 12.1 percent in May. The July decrease was the largest monthly decline since the index fell 7.2 percent in September 2024. In July, prices for import petroleum and petroleum products fell 7.5 percent, and import natural gas prices advanced 5.3 percent. From July 2025 to July 2026, import fuel prices increased 25.2 percent.
All Imports Excluding Fuel: Prices for nonfuel imports increased 0.4 percent in July. Higher prices for capital goods; foods, feeds, and beverages; as well as automotive vehicles, parts, and engines more than offset lower prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials. From July 2025 to July 2026, nonfuel import prices rose 4.5 percent, the largest over-the-year advance since the index increased 4.6 percent for the year ended June 2022. Higher prices for capital goods; nonfuel industrial supplies and materials; consumer goods, excluding automotives; as well as foods, feeds, and beverages more than offset lower prices for automotive vehicles, parts, and engines for the year ended July 2026.
Foods, Feeds, and Beverages: Prices for import foods, feeds, and beverages advanced 0.9 percent in July following decreases of 0.1 percent in June and 0.3 percent in May. In July, higher prices for other animal and vegetable preparations and products, fruit, as well as food oils and oilseeds more than offset lower prices for cane and beet sugar, green coffee, as well as bakery and confectionery products.
Nonfuel Industrial Supplies and Materials: Import prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials declined 0.5 percent in July after a 0.3-percent increase in June. Lower prices for major nonferrous metals- crude as well as for finished metals shapes and advanced manufacturing more than offset higher prices for finished nonmetals (boxes, belting, glass, etc.).
Finished Goods: Prices for the major finished goods import categories were mostly up in July. Import capital goods prices increased 0.9 percent. Higher prices for computers, peripherals and semiconductors; industrial and service machinery; as well as civilian aircraft, engines, and parts drove the increase. The price index for import automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased 0.2 percent in July, and prices for import consumer goods, excluding automotives, were unchanged over the same period.

Export Prices Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year

Export Price Details

Prices for U.S. exports decreased 1.3 percent in July following a decline of 0.7 percent in June and an advance of 1.2 percent in May. Lower prices for nonagricultural exports more than offset higher prices for agricultural exports. Over the past year, U.S. export prices increased 8.2 percent.
Agricultural Exports: The price index for agricultural exports increased 1.0 percent in July after ticking up 0.1 percent in June. Prices for agricultural exports have not recorded a 1-month decline since December 2025. Agricultural export prices advanced 5.7 percent over the past 12 months, as higher prices for soybeans, other foods and food preparations, as well as oilseeds and food oils drove the over-the-year rise.
All Exports Excluding Agriculture: Nonagricultural export prices declined 1.5 percent in July after falling 0.7 percent in June and rising 1.2 percent in May. Lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials more than offset higher prices for capital goods; automotive vehicles, parts, and engines; as well as consumer goods, excluding automotives, in July. Prices for nonagricultural exports increased 8.5 percent from July 2025 to July 2026. Higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; as well as consumer goods, excluding automotives, drove the 12-month increase.
Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies and Materials: Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices decreased 4.1 percent in July after declining 2.1 percent the previous month. Lower prices for fuel, nonferrous metals, and chemicals drove the decrease in July.
Finished Goods: Prices for the major finished goods export categories were up in July. Capital goods export prices increased 0.5 percent in July following advances of 0.5 percent in June and 0.4 percent in May. In July, higher prices for scientific and medical machinery; industrial and service machinery; as well as computers, peripherals, and semiconductors drove the increase. Over the same period, export consumer goods, excluding automotives, prices increased 0.2 percent. Prices for export automotive vehicles, parts, and engines rose 0.7 percent in July, the largest 1-month advance since April 2025.

Import and Export Prices Month-Over-Month

Import and Export Prices Year-Over-Year

Structural Supply Pressures Highly Active

Category	Monthly Change (July 2026)	Year-Over-Year Change	Core Takeaway
Fuel Imports	-7.2%	+25.2%	A sharp monthly decline mask a massive, punishing annual increase.
Nonfuel Imports	+0.4%	+4.5%	This is the largest annual jump since mid-2022, driven by rising capital and finished goods.
Agricultural Exports	+1.0%	+5.7%	Food export costs haven’t seen a single monthly decline since late 2025.
Finished Capital Goods	+0.9% (Imports) / +0.5% (Exports)	Stably Rising	High-tech inputs like semiconductors, computers, and medical machinery keep climbing.

Import and Export prices Never Returned to Normal

Import and export prices never returned to their pre-pandemic levels due to a combination of persistent structural shifts in global trade, geopolitical shocks, permanent monetary inflation, and new trade barriers.

1: Structural Deglobalization and Supply Chain Realignment

Friend-Shoring and Near-Shoring: To avoid future pandemic-style disruptions, companies shifted manufacturing from ultra-low-cost hubs like China to closer or more politically aligned countries. These new supply lines are less efficient and structurally more expensive.
Persistent Tariffs: Ongoing trade conflicts and protective tariffs—such as extensive duties on cross-border manufacturing inputs—broadened inflationary pressures across both importing and non-importing businesses.

2: Geopolitical and Energy Shocks

Elevated Resource Costs: Ongoing global conflict. Fuel imports and related industrial supplies have experienced severe volatility and sudden annual jumps, keeping the baseline cost of moving goods elevated.
Higher Freight and Maritime Fares: Disruptions in critical shipping lanes led to long-term increases in logistics and transportation fees, preventing shipping costs from fully resetting to pre-2020 levels.

3: Broad-Based Monetary Inflation

Permanent Shift in Price Levels: The massive fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion deployed globally during the pandemic created a permanent step-up in nominal price levels.
Once higher wages, production costs, and intermediate input expenses are baked into the global economy, nominal prices rarely deflate back to historical levels.

4: Component-Specific Supply Shortages

Advanced Manufacturing Power: Specialized sectors—such as semiconductors, capital goods, and advanced machinery—saw permanent price increases due to lingering input shortages and increased global demand for tech infrastructure.
Country-specific supply shocks in technical inputs heavily insulated these goods from price discounting.

The End of Just-In-Time

Finally, import-export price trends went from just-in-time manufacturing to just-in-case manufacturing.

Importers need to hold more materials and parts inventory out of fear of tariffs or shortages. This increases costs across the board.

The True Cost of “Just-In-Case”

Working Capital Lockup: Companies must tie up massive amounts of cash in raw materials and warehouse space rather than investing that capital into growth or efficiency.
Higher Storage Fees: Increased demand for industrial real estate and climate-controlled storage has driven up warehousing overhead globally.
Obsolescence and Spoilage: Holding inventory longer introduces the financial risk of goods spoiling, degrading, or becoming obsolete before they can be sold.
Price Floor: These permanently higher holding costs act as a floor for import and export prices, meaning savings are rarely passed down to consumers anymore.

Supply chains are now prioritizing resilience over efficiency, preferring the guaranteed higher cost of overstocking to the catastrophic cost of a total production shutdown.

Why the Long-Term Inflationary Story Wins

Even with July’s monthly dip, overall import prices are up 5.9% year-over-year and export prices are up a staggering 8.2%. This data supports the conclusion that the global economy has structurally baselined at a higher price tier because:

Core Goods Are Insulated: Prices for semiconductors, automotive parts, and industrial machinery are completely decoupled from falling crude oil prices. They remain high due to country-specific supply shocks and tech infrastructure demand.
The “Just-In-Case” Premium Is Baked In: Importers are willingly paying more for finished materials and capital goods to secure inventory stability against future tariffs or blockades.
The Disconnect with the Diesel Crunch: While raw import petroleum fell in July, the downstream refining capacity crisis (the $100+ diesel crack spread) means the actual cost of distributing these imported goods across domestic trucking routes remains painfully high.

Record high crack spreads. Serious economic ramifications.

With diesel inventories sitting at a 12% seasonal deficit right as the agricultural harvest begins, independent truckers and price-taking farmers are left to entirely absorb the blow of a $101.85 crack spread.

The downstream supply chain is broken, and the inflationary consequences are locked in.

Not a Small Price

In yet another huge political gaffe, on August 14, Trump proclaimed “I’ll Never Apologize, You’re Just Paying a Tiny Bit More”

Tell that to independent truckers operating on razor-thin spot margins.

Tell that to America’s price-taking farmers locking in massive input costs ahead of a critical harvest.

It isn’t a “tiny little bit more”. It is an inflationary tax that will ripple through every consumer household in the country.

And the bond market is watching too.

For discussion, please see Rising Bond Yields Are a Warning to the US Treasury and the Fed

The Fed is not in a good spot.