OPEC+ cutting production by 2 million barrels per day will help keep inflation stoked and J. Powell raising interest rates. This goes to show how far Amercan prestige has fallen. A driveling Biden tried to talk the Saudis into increasing oil production but they did the opposite. I guess they were unimpressed (hmmm? Wonder why?). Before this fiasco is over, NATO will be gone, Germany and the US estranged, and the BRICS nations the new power axis.
“Bad times make strong men,
Strong men make good times,
Good times make weak men,
Weak men make bad times”
The clown show known as the Biden Administration are the epitome of “weak men” (and dumb too!)
Putin is a strong man: building his society from the ruin of the USSR and the drunk Yeltsin. Churches are being built, culture and pride being restored and Russua is negotiating and succeeding with the non-Western world (non of which are going along with sanctions). In contrast, the US is overly concerned with men who wear dresses, blows up their allies’ energy life line, invades the world and invites the world.
It saddens me to say, but America is going to fall a lot further (and the ISM with it).
November 19, 2022 will see huge spike in grain prices as Russia refuses to extend the deal!!!!
8dots
1 year ago
In 2020 million of boomers expired within two weeks instead of twenty years, leaving behind apt, houses and other assets. The gov
collect more taxes. In 2021/2022 investors cashed in paying capital gains. Income minus taxes ==> disposable income. Capital gains are not wages. Real wages might be rising, but more taxes gov collect reduce disposable income… The front end of the boomers have reached 77. They will retire/ expire in large numbers for. There are not enough people to replace them. Many co finance minorities to fill the gap, teaching them online.
Do not extrapolate the old labor market. The American economy entered Ft Necessity !
You know the vast majority of those that expired were in “RETIREMENT HOMES”!!!
Therefore the left behind homes and apts will be willed to their family members, ie not “EMPTY”!!!!
MPO45
1 year ago
“And as I have noted, there are over 22 million people age 60 or over, at or near retirement age, as of January.”
I may be the outlier here but I think inflation will continue to remain high and as such, we will likely have a few boomers come back into the workforce. When this happens everyone will cheer that the labor shortage is over but it will only be temporary because as soon as inflation is contained, those boomers that came back to work will bail out again. We may end up in a situation in 2024 or 2025 where we have a sudden mass exodus of workers – those boomers that would retire normally + those that came back to work a little bit more. It will be a double whammy.
I am adjusting my portfolio accordingly and placing my bets but I will do “quiet profiting” because too many people complain when I show them how I make money.
The key problem is labor – too many people retiring and not enough young people to replace them. Labor and energy are two key inputs into every good or service. We now have huge union pushes across america too. Like I said, I may be an outlier but inflation will be high. Yes, it will go down temporarily but the de-globalization will also cause an inflationary impact.
Politicians chasing votes will all be setting out how they’ll stimulate growth to raise wages whilst the Central Banks are trying to do the opposite by raising rates. Maybe this is why the Fed is being so aggressive, they know they’ve got to get the job done before the political pressure really piles up before the next election.
1. Bond plays: 5 Year Treasury notes; I-Bonds; Laddered T-Bills
2. Dividend stocks – avoid labor intensive companies. Big Pharma or anything healthcare – those boomers need meds, hip replacements, etc.
3. Naked Puts and Covered Calls on Energy
4. Long PUTS on housing (XHB, home builder stocks: Lennar, Dr horton, Toll, etc). January 2024 strikes slightly out of money.
5. Long CALLS on Japanese Yen. January 2024 or 2025 strikes slightly out of money. Awaiting analytics on EWJ and other Japan etfs. Of course N. Korea lobbying missiles over Japan makes me nervous.
I will post more detail later but I need to see what Fed does in November and December because that will drive the decisions. Of course, also need to keep tabs on Mish analysis too. The list above is my short list, I’ll need to post spreadsheets for all the money action the money express is taking. Will talk REITS later. Choo! Choo!
I’m in manufacturing and this fits with what we are seeing. Increased costs from vendors and difficulty staffing. The inflation pressures in wages are remaining as “good” employees have a lot of options.
We have seen some slowdown in orders but not significantly. We are still trying to hire but realistically, we just want to keep the employees we have. That means increasing wages and our costs. I don’t see many prices coming down.
Keep in mind that we have generally lagged the overall economy. Late to the downturns and late to join recoveries.
Metal fabrication. We make parts for equipment. Our customers make things like airport ground handling trucks, railroad maintenance equipment, packaging machinery and large scale grass mowing equipment. It’s 100% B to B.
Stay Informed
Subscribe to MishTalk
You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.
Politicians chasing votes will all be setting out how they’ll stimulate growth to raise wages whilst the Central Banks are trying to do the opposite by raising rates. Maybe this is why the Fed is being so aggressive, they know they’ve got to get the job done before the political pressure really piles up before the next election.