The advance rush to beat tariffs hugely distorted trade data in January.
Advance Economic Report
Please consider the Advance Economic Report on the trade deficit and inventories.
Advance International Trade in Goods
- The international trade deficit was $153.3 billion in January, up $31.2 billion from $122.0 billion in December.
- Exports of goods for January were $172.2 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports.
- Imports of goods for January were $325.4 billion, $34.6 billion more than December imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories
- Wholesale inventories for January, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $905.2 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent) from December 2024, and were up 1.1 percent (±0.9 percent) from January 2024.
- The November 2024 to December 2024 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of down 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent) to down 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).
Advance Retail Inventories
- Retail inventories for January, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $821.3 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent) from December 2024, and were up 4.9 percent (±0.7 percent) from January 2024.
- The November 2024 to December 2024 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of down 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent) to down 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent).
Goods Balance of Trade and Advance Goods Balance
This number will stick as a record for quite some time.
Look on the bright side. Trump will blame this on Biden then claim the improvement.
Goods Exports and Imports
Goods Exports and Imports Details
- Exports: Up $3.3 billion, 1.9 percent
- Imports: Up $34.6 billion, 11.8 percent
- Trade Deficit: Up $31.2 billion from $122.0 billion, 25.6 percent
This surge in imports will not be immediately sold to end consumers.
Thus, the inventory numbers, wholesale up only 0.7 percent with retail down 0.1 percent strikes me as more than a bit skewed.
More Economic Distortions
February 28, 2025: Subprime Auto Loan Delinquencies Hit Record High 6.56 Percent
As borrowers struggle to keep up with car payments, auto lenders offer payment extensions to keep those loans from going bad.
February 14, 2925: Retail Sales Crash – Did the Consumer Finally Throw in the Towel?
The Census Department shows huge across-the-board declines in multiple categories, down 0.9 percent overall.
February 19, 2025: Housing Starts Drop 9.8 Percent, Unable to Retain Any Traction
Housing starts have mostly been rangebound since late 2022 as high prices and high mortgage rates dampen demand.
Trump’s Tariffs Will Increase the Cost of a Pickup Truck by $8,000.
On February 26, I noted Trump’s Tariffs Will Increase the Cost of a Pickup Truck by $8,000.
Trump says it’s full speed ahead with tariffs. It will cost US jobs.
Is the plan to make cars so unaffordable that nobody buys one?
Factor in less immigration, a cutoff of aid for illegal immigrants, and student loan repayments and you have a nasty mix of recessionary factors.
Contrary to most Americans crying that they don’t have enough money-
Salaries for sports figures continue to skyrocket. Evidently, we like to go to sporting events. Tickets are $50-$300 for the major sports. I may be way too understated, since I decided decades ago not to attend a professional sporting event. Last one I went to was to see the Pittsburgh Triangles, in World Team Tennis. Yeah, decades ago.
If we spend that kind of money, we are just way too fat & happy here. A little bit of inflation must be good for us – how many boycotts have there been to reduce sport salaries – none. We’ll get over it.
You are required to play sports, and to see your parents/grandparents, or your kids/grandkids play sports. Watching anybody else is frivolous.
Globalism versus Nationalism
The rich must, and will be served at the lowest possible cost.
Trump is 50 years too late.
Now obey your Master.
So if USA picked up importing to beat the tariffs, why didn’t other countries do the same in order to beat the inevitable retaliatory tariffs? Seems like big FU to trump and amerika. Nobody likes a bully.
Everyone thought that deficit print was a typo but it wasn’t. Anyone want Biden back yet? Lol. If not, give it another few months or maybe a few days the way things are going.
Largest deficit ever, bigly!
Not me. Won’t change my mind about that either after racist DEI, weaponizing the government against conservatives, etc.
SPX close Jan 14/15 gap.
It could be recessionary in the end. Question is… are you cheering it or not? Guess I am not sure if that is a correction at all. If so, then some folks were right and all was smoke and mirrors and it seems necessary. If not, then birds of a feather… and there is support for all go, no quit spending.
Trump’s new tax plan EXPOSED, working class DESTROYED
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlJ6K41mT68
As an aside, it’s really funny seeing how the Europeans are totally freaking out after the Trump-Zelensky press conference.
We are now isolated and friendless. When our allies are Russia and no-one else you know we’re in trouble.
Ukraine is friendless now that they have seen that Europe’s rhetoric is much larger than their pocketbook. As I have said before, Europe must get serious about their defense otherwise they are useless to us and a burden. Tough love.
Europe has to put up and put boots on the ground in Ukraine now. Too much has been invested, too many lives have been lost to walk away now.
Poland has sounded ready to do so in the past. I believe the Baltic states, potentially Finland, the UK and possibly France, at least, would be also be game.
To do otherwise sets Putin loose.
Europeans have to be convinced that if they don’t defend their own continent then we are walking away. Otherwise they will not do it.
Are you serious????
King Chaos claimed long ago he could “act presidential.”
Far from it: he failed miserably at diplomacy and lacked common decency.
Trump’s hidden agenda was revealed in his final analysis of the situation: it will make for good TV.
Herr Stormer was friends with Jimmy Savile, going way back. .
My simps are losing it too… they just watched daddy get spanked on national tv.
Trumpty Dumpty turned red and took a big fall. Now he is just a cracked egg.
Trump and Vance acting like 2 teenage girls was really embarrassing today. Zelenskyy should have slapped both of them. European allies need to step up, arm Ukraine to the teeth and finish the job.
Don’t know what you were watching
You should sign up and finish the job. Easy to say from your keyboard.
Whatever you say Comrade
It is all a show by Trump and Vance. They are blowhards. Trump has now backed down from deportations and even scaling back legal immigration. Youtube has videos of Trump supporters burning their 2024 Trump flags. Some have lost their jobs and now personally understand they made a mistake. Insulin is up many hundred percent. DOGE quietly deleted the biggest items on the savings list today and the overall savings is down dramatically. Even a Trump advisor now admits we are headed for disaster.
Why do you hate the Uranians?
Cool, guess what’s on the other side?
Zelensky not too bright blowing up his own deal today.
He’s figured out you can’t expect American to honor a deal.
Peace coming with or without him.
Cease fire is unlikely but Ukraine will be financing US support. Europe will begin providing soldiers and more equipment. Russia faces economic and social collapse, Trump conned Putin into over extending Russia thinking a concession and surrender was imminent. When he gets to the negotiating table Putin will learn that the resources of Donbas belong to USA and Russians are not welcome. Every Russian resource has been expended and Russia faces both EU and US military industrial giants. Ideally Putin will respond by feeding more men and more donkeys into the meat grinder until Russian civilization ceases to exist.
Things are so bad in the USA that this can be plausibly true:
“Look on the bright side. Trump will blame this on Biden then claim the improvement.”
I remember when the USA was filled with two parties that cared about what’s good for people, not just spinning everything to avoid ever looking bad. Yay let’s tank the economic numbers as a way of making ourselves look good. Perfect plan.
The abomination of Biden will take a decade to fix. Sit tight. And cheer up
How long ago was it that the two parties cared more for the people than for themselves? How many foreign revolutions has the US encouraged and/or paid for since the end of WWII?
Yep, and big news today – Atlanta Fed GDPNow just went negative
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-500-nasdaq-set-for-cautious-start-ahead-of-key-pce-data/card/atlanta-fed-s-forecast-for-q1-economic-growth-just-fell-off-a-cliff-HXr4S3Qag6uvyKOtXPHB
Yes bc of what Mish posted. Keep up.
If import was up (more negative) and the GDP was also up to: $29.8T other components pushed the GDP higher.
The US Has Never Imported So Much Food https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-never-imported-much-food-222428377.html
If our farmers get pissed off enough, the seacoast cities will starve. I’m surprised that the farmers haven’t done that already, since they are conservative and live in the real, producing world.
Pop all the bubbles. Glorious. Let’s live in the real world.