Search
All
Economics
Politics

Increasing Propensity of People to Not Work In Three Pictures

•

•

41 comments on Increasing Propensity of People to Not Work In Three Pictures

•

Methodology

I downloaded data on employment and population from the BLS repository. Age 60+ is a summation of age group 60-64 plus 65 and older. Some data is seasonally-adjusted when available. The BLS is not consistent on providing the same options for every data series. Seasonal variations make little difference in year-over-year and decade-over-decade comparisons. 

Key Findings

  • The population gage 16 and older increased by 48.695 million but employment only rose by 16.492 million.
  • Of the 48.695 million increase in population, 33.012 million was in age group 60 and over.  
  • The population of those age 16-59 rose by 25.789 million but employment actually shrank by 153,000.
  • Meanwhile, employment in age group 60 and over increased by 16.645 million, over 100% of the total employment increase.
  • The population in the core working age group 25-54 rose by 5.244 million while employment barely rose by 302,000. 

Cumulative Year-Over-Year Net Changes

Chart Notes

  • The date index reads January but the data is a year-over-year cumulative net reflection of August vs the August in the previous year. 
  • The chart is color coded: Compare dark blue to light blue, dark green to light green, dark yellow to light yellow, and red to orange.
  • The darker colors in each series are employment and the lighter ones population.

Key Findings 

  • The impact of two recessions on employment is clearly visible in all age groups except age group 60 and over (dark green). 
  • The huge increase in population of that age group (33.012 million as per the first chart) overpowered the impact two recessions had on other age groups.

Employment Population Ratios 

Employment population ratios are a measure of the number of people employed divided by the population of that age group.

The EPRs also show the impact of two recessions on all but age group 60 and over. 

The EPR for age group 60+ peaked in 2011. It will continue to decline as boomer get older and eventually retire. By 2030 every boomer will be of retirement age.  

Propensity of People to Not Work

The above demographic explanations aside, there still appears to be a big voluntary propensity of those age 25-54 to not work. 

The population of that age group rose by 5.244 million while employment barely rose by 302,000. 

Meanwhile, millions of open leisure and hospitality jobs go unfilled. 

In a demographically-related post please see Peak Boomers: Baby Boomers’ Percent of Labor Force and Influence Has Peaked

Please Subscribe!

Like these reports? If so, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish 

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Mike Shedlock

Recommended Articles

Comments to this post are now closed.

41 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
taperwood
taperwood
4 years ago
The question is not are they working but are they eating?  Lack of food is a great motivator.
0
0
Jackula
Jackula
4 years ago
Lots of alternative employment out there that does not show in the stats. Although this is not an example of the alternative employment I was thinking of is an onlyfans worker considered a small business person or employed?
0
0
numike
numike
4 years ago
“I always arrive late at the office, but I make up for it by leaving early.”
― Charles Lamb
0
0
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
What’s the incentive to work a crappy job for crappier pay ? The truth is the number of job openings arent real and overstated. Many jobs and businesses arent coming back because of changes by people that can afford things. With delta, there is more fear. 
0
0
JeffD
JeffD
4 years ago
In my first real job (computer programmer), I saw an ad for the opening, called for an interview time, and went to the job location. The hiring manager (the only person I had to talk to) talked to me for an hour, and hired me on the spot. I gave him my SS number the day he hired me, and he paid me monthly according to my work. Fast forward to today. Before you can work at a real job, you have to start with an HR department. They don’t really understand what your profession does everyday, so they try to determine if you are right for the job based on high level checkboxes and buzzwords that have nothing to do with the position. I’ll stop there, because the gauntlet past that point is so ridiculous, it’s amazing anyone gets matched with the job they are actually interested in and qualified for.
0
0
Henry_MixMaster
Henry_MixMaster
4 years ago
Reply to  JeffD
Was an article in Forbes about that today. The HR automation many larger employers are using pretty much eliminates the highly qualified candidates. Applied for jobs that I had a career of direct experience in the specific, discreet area they were looking for and never got past the initial screening. How discreet? There’s probably a pool of under 10,000 people in the country highly versed in the subject area. At least two of the employers are still trying to hire for those jobs.
0
0
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Henry_MixMaster
Probably a copy of the same article originally from the WSJ about 10 days ago. 
New 2021 quote by Jojo: “Live by automation, die by automation”.
0
0
QTPie
QTPie
4 years ago
Work is no longer necessary…
Young folks can trade stonx on Robin Hood instead (thanks to tiktok stock tips).
Young gals can become sugarbabies
0
0
Rbm
Rbm
4 years ago
Ive been pondering.  Would a large retired population be part of the issue.  They consume goods and services but are not available to contribute on the production  side.  
0
0
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  Rbm
Useless Eaters 🙂
0
0
ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
4 years ago
Reply to  Rbm
In theory the retired are consuming savings, like living in the house they paid  off.  However, they will eventually eat food that has not been produced yet.  Money as savings bridges that gap.
0
0
Mish
Mish
4 years ago
Ideas Not Yet Considered to Save the World (Sarcasm)
1. Huge taxes on those not walking to work
2. Ban fast food
3. Paint the ice caps white to reflect more light to reduce melting
4. Giant mirrors reflect light from where it’s shining to where it isn’t eliminating night lights
0
0
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
You left out geoengineering. 
It must be a great idea. The editor of Nature says so.
Of course, a Nature op-ed also told us that there is no way in the world that Covid could possibly have come from a lab leak.
0
0
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Less work for humans coming right up!
=========
Do we need humans for that job? Automation booms after COVID
By MATT O’BRIEN and PAUL WISEMAN
September 5, 2021
I don’t see the following as “good news” for humans either, despite the opinion of the NYT writer.
A.I. Can Now Write Its Own Computer Code. That’s Good News for Humans.
A new technology called Codex generates programs in 12 coding languages and even translates between them. But it is not a threat to professional programmers.
Cade Metz
Sept. 9, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ET
0
0
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
” But it is not a threat to professional programmers”. I bet.
0
0
tbergerson
tbergerson
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Software was writing software well before everyone started calling everything AI to boost their stock multiples and sales
0
0
amalagoli
amalagoli
4 years ago
The stock market has boosted 401k accounts like there is no tomorrow. Some folks have been lucky to see their house appreciate some ridiculous amount and possibly cached out handsomely. On the other hand, the quality of jobs out there is cheaper and more demanding. People are getting tired of working for nothing. 
When companies cut salaries and benefits, it is market forces and capitalism, when people refuse to work for too cheap pay, it is lazy folks?
For years companies have treated employees like undesirable income statement expenses, to be disposed as early as possible.
Now they wonder why nobody wants to work?
0
0
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  amalagoli
It doesn’t explain why older people are still working. They’re more likely to have seen house appreciation and would be less likely to want demanding jobs.
0
0
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
There are an awful lot of older people who do not own their homes.   The average SS payment is around $1500/month.  I think the clustering for most people is in the $800to $1000 range.  Not an amount easy to live on. 
0
0
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
I think this  is closer to the truth of the matter. Very few people over 65, especially, work because  they want to. They have to. A few lucky people like me do because they want to…..but not many.
0
0
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
OT….the Novavax (protein based) vaccine, which has had trouble getting its manufacturing certification ( they passed their patient trials), is going to combine a COVID vaccine with a flu vaccine, and might be coming out soon.
Several other good updates too, in this John Campbell video, especially on the rising pediatric cases. FYI.
I am booked to get my 3rd shot next week. I am taking the regular Moderna again….the actual so-called “Moderna booster” is not yet available.
The rising cases among school children here , which includes a whole lot of my patient base, is concerning enough to me that I’m not waiting. I got dose two way back in late January, and I think the odds now of getting through another winter without being exposed is very small. Many of my older patients are also getting a third dose which is being handed out pretty much on demand here now, Nobody I’ve talked to has had any issue at all with getting a third shot.
0
0
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Great, provided the flu vaccine is made traditionally by in-egg cultivation. I read some articles about the mRNA being applied to other vaccines such as flu. Some people did have symptoms after vaccination, myself including. 
0
0
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Maximus_Minimus
The question is what are they keying on in the flu that the mRNA technology will trigger?
0
0
Eddie_T
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
What you pointed to discusses only the Covid vaccine.  It just uses another method to generate spike proteins with which to train the body with and in any case is the same approach as the mRNA/DNA shots – spike proteins are generated.  
As has been repeated numerous times in the past here – the problem with the spike protein approach is that:
1. Training the immune system ONLY against a specific spike protein configuration gives insufficient immunity.  it doesn’t kill the virus, which is why the vaxxed have been shown to carry as much virus in their throats/noses as a sick unvaxxed person.  This collection of not dead viruses also allows the virus to mutate, thus creating new variants.  Despite the FDA approving Pfizer’s vaccine to “prevent” Covid, it does not such thing, for if it did, there would not be any breakthrough cases.
OTOH, natural immunity focuses on a variety of real virus telltales, not only the spike protein covering, which is why natural immunity is so much better than the mRNA/DNA and works against variants.
2. The article states: “The Novavax vaccine uses a telltale piece of the coronavirus: the notorious spike protein. All alone, the spike protein is harmless and can’t cause COVID-19.”
We know this not to be true from the research performed by the Salk Institute and others clearly documenting the damage caused by the spike protein in animal vascular systems.  Other similar research has confirmed this causing the establishment to attempt to minimize the potential for damage by stating that the spike protein only exists in the body for days or at most a couple of weeks, attempting to imply that vascular damage takes time, which is not what the Salk Institute experienced.  The damage was near immediate if I understand it correctly.
3. To my original question – Unless the flu has a spike protein covering, what exactly will the new proposed mRNA (and similar technology) shots use as a pattern to train the body immune system against?
0
0
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
The flu vaccine has two surface proteins: hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA).
0
0
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Maximus_Minimus
You mean the flu “virus”?  And these two proteins are standard in all flu variants?
0
0
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
According to the CDC, as of today, my Vitamin C is now classed as a vaccine, while your Covid vaccine does NOT protect you.
August 26 definition by CDC:
Vaccine– A product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity
to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease.
September 9  2021 definition by CGC
Vaccine: A preparation that is used to stimulate the body’s immune response against diseases.
0
0
Jmurr
Jmurr
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
True dat!  I have a lot more faith in the vitamin c and d, zinc, NAC and quercertin I take everyday then the jab I took because I would lose my job otherwise. 
0
0
tbergerson
tbergerson
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
It is not surprising that pediatric cases are at high levels as most schools go back to full in person models.  First we are at a peak of the more transmissible delta form of CSV2, and there are more kids congregating inside.  Will this result in more severe illnesses and more deaths in children is the question.  Of course if our health authorities were not bought off by the executives at Pfizer and Moderna, so they can collect their 2-300 Billion dollars in novel vaccine technology profits, we would be using treatmeents for those who DO get ill.
Thanks for your link to Dr Campbell.  How are those videos still available on Youtube?  He speaks positively about Ivermectin.  I would have though he would have been banned by now.  I see he also has a video about efficacy of HCQ.  Havent watched that yet.  Personally, and I am vaccinated, given a choice between asphyxiation and death, and trying out an unproven but safe, FDA approved (but off-label, which used to mean at Doctors discretion I think) and potentially helpful drug therapy, I will choose the drug therapy.
0
0
Henry_MixMaster
Henry_MixMaster
4 years ago
But does this account for people that are working for themselves or picking up gigs/freelance? Given the choice of a thankless low paying hospitality job or freelancing, the choice is really obvious.
0
0
Mish
Mish
4 years ago
Reply to  Henry_MixMaster
Freelancers are included in the work force and counted as employed as well.
If you work 1 hour doing ANYTHING you are employed.
One Uber or Lyft ride = employed 
0
0
tbergerson
tbergerson
4 years ago
Meanwhile, millions of open leisure and hospitality jobs go unfilled.
Which is exactly the problem.  Good year comparisons.  August 2000 just about exactly lines up with accession of China to WTO.  I have yet to prove it but the sort of jobs that lead to a middle class lifestyle I suspect have declined markedly since (a good amount of this in the IRS data, where $50-100k tax returns as % of all has declined by 10%).  Globalization has destroyed the US middle class, plus a dash of societal degradation.  If people lose hope of MEANINGFUL work and a meaningful life, they are going to drop out and give up.  Which pretty much dovetails with the EPR.  BLS blames it all on the Boomer python.  It isnt so simple
0
0
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  tbergerson
Good points.
0
0
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
Reply to  tbergerson
Yep. You gotta retrain yourself to a different part of the value chain. Globalization is a case of the haves and have nots.  I know people who’ve made the transition well even without a formal  education. These days you are only limited by your ability to learn. 
0
0
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
That ’employment in age group 60 and over increased by 16.645 million’, I suspect those who are retired, or close to retiring, are discovering the Fed’s interest rate ‘policy’ (I use the word loosely) does not provide enough income to live on, and have had to go back to work.
0
0
Rbm
Rbm
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Or maybe still recovering from 2008.  
0
0
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
“The population in the core working age group 25-54 rose by 5.244 million while employment barely rose by 302,000. “
Sort of blows the whole “back to normal” story, doesn’t it?
Very good work, and a nice pithy takeaway….the people who need employment most are not finding it. EOM.
I wonder if a lot of this is not really related to COVID at all….but is just a sign of secular stagnation?
0
0
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
That’s also prime child bearing years.
I wonder if what we are seeing here is more moms not working (both single moms who get tons of free assistance and 2 parent families with modest incomes where having the mom stay at home with the kids is more economical than having her work once you factor in child care, need for only 1 car etc).
To figure out if this is the case this group would have to be further separated into 25-40 and 40-55 since there are very few women past 40 having kids.
0
0
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
People over 60 have Medicare, so they don’t need insurance coverage. And I think they would rather work than sit home and do nothing. at least more so than people in their 20s.
0
0
QTPie
QTPie
4 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Medicare eligibility starts at 65, not 60.
0
0

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.