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Industrial Production Jumps 0.5 Percent But Details Are Ugly

A cold snap boosted utilities by a whopping 7.2 percent.

Industrial production data from the Fed, chart by Mish.

The Fed’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for January provides an interesting set of statistics.

  • Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January after moving up 1.0 percent in December.
  • In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the earlier resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer.
  • Manufacturing output declined 0.1 percent in January, held down by a 5.2 percent decrease in the index for motor vehicles and parts.
  • The indexes for mining fell 1.2 percent.
  • The index for utilities jumped 7.2 percent, as cold temperatures boosted the demand for heating

The Fed reports a decline in manufacturing of 0.1 percent, I calculate a decline of 0.2 percent using inputs to 4 decimal places. My other numbers match.

Industrial Production

Manufacturing production peaked in January of 2008 at 106.4 at the start of the great recession. It never recovered and the index is now at 99.6.

Industrial Production Index Detail

Other than the weather, and the end of a work stoppage on aircraft, there is nothing to cheer about in this report.

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Don’t expect the Fed to be cutting interest rates soon.

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35 Comments
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Patrick
Patrick
1 year ago

I thought moving all power to DC after the fin crisis was suppose to solve everything. What we got was more over financialization directed globally from Washington, while offshoring more.

Bayleaf
Bayleaf
1 year ago

“Mexico’s president to expand its lawsuit against gun manufacturers, if Trump designates cartels as terrorists.”

Well it’s clear who she works for.

HubrisEveryWhereOnline
HubrisEveryWhereOnline
1 year ago
Reply to  Bayleaf

What does this have to do with industrial production? You’re lucky Mish lets all/most(?) your posts stay with your Tourette syndrome about Trump.

Even so, if you’re going to go-off topic, it would be nice if you actually posted a link to what you’re talking about and quote what someone actually said – without key words missing

Bayleaf
Bayleaf
1 year ago

I think I hit a nerve! You Mexican? My good deed for the day, lol.

HubrisEveryWhereOnline
HubrisEveryWhereOnline
1 year ago
Reply to  Bayleaf

No, your political BS posts don’t affect me personally at all. I just want to point out to other readers that you are full of hubris and lies.

What she actually said was “If they declare these criminal groups as terrorists, then we’ll have to expand our U.S. lawsuit,” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mexico-president-us-gunmakers-legal-action-cartels-designated-terrorist-groups/

That is VERY different from your assertion. She confidently acknowledges these groups are criminal but they are aided by the US looking the other way when the guns used by cartels are shipped illegally across our own border (you know, like Mexico not stopping people from walking across a non-fenced border line)

She would definitely get even more headlines in your conspiracy media network if she labeled the J6 protestors as terrorists and threatened to send Mexican drones or military personnel to come take them out, as the US is threatening with Mexican drug cartels.

Now that would get your conspiracy headlines and boil bubbling. Ha ha

robbyrob Im back!
robbyrob Im back!
1 year ago

U.S. manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in January, weighed down by a sharp decline in motor vehicle output. THANKS TRUMP

Bam_Man
Bam_Man
1 year ago

Trump was president for 1 full week in January, dumb*ss.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bam_Man
President Musk
President Musk
1 year ago
Reply to  Bam_Man

President in name only.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  President Musk

If Harris had won you would be calling yourself President Pelosi. Am I right?

Bayleaf
Bayleaf
1 year ago

Here’s something to cheer about.

A federal judge ruled on the side of the law, allowing DOGE continued access to government information systems and dealing a fatal blow to the illegal efforts by rogue judges to hide the criminal activity at federal institutions from the American people.

Expect many more of these judges to be overturned.

robbyrob Im back!
robbyrob Im back!
1 year ago
Reply to  Bayleaf

Elon Musk’s DOGE Website Was Hacked Within Days Of Its Launch

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago

What does that have to do with anything?

President Musk
President Musk
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

Illustrates my actual level of incompetence… which you will steadfastly ignore, like a good little simp.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  President Musk

You mean you are “robbyrob Im back!” and “President Musk?” Who else are you?

peelo
peelo
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

Data breach. The US Treasury has been hands-down the most effective, error-free payment system in human history. Until now. No worries, 19-year0old self-titled “Big Balls” will fix it, right?

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  peelo

Do you prefer David Hogg to fix the system?

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

Maybe nothing. But Musk’s team has been inserting their own code into the incredibly secure federal payments system in order to track things. What if some hackers make use of this inserted code to access the federal payments system and shut it down? Totally hypothetical of course.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

By inserting their search codes they have found very interesting transactions that wouldn’t have been found if they hadn’t inserted the codes. That is not hypothetical at all. Additionally what makes you think that seeing the lack of database security rampant in the many administrations that this database has not already been hacked by the Chinese for example?

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

Then we have nothing to worry about. Thanks for making me feel better about Musk having his hand in the cookie jar.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

He has enough cookies already and he baked them himself not like so many who just sole cookies because no one was looking. I am happy you are feeling better. I am feeling better too.

Matt
Matt
1 year ago

Tariff China 1000%. We’ll have to track their products — they craftily send their products to Canada, Mexico, and other countries for eventual shipment to the US to avoid tariffs. We need to effect independence from China as quickly as possible. Automation should make this practical. Reciprocal tariffs elsewhere. If another country tariffs us 10%, why should we not tariff that country the same amount.

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Matt

Sure. 1000% tariffs sound good to me. 95% of apple products are made in china. No one “craftily” hides this.

Same for Nike and Converse shoes, Dell computers, xbox, hp printers, kitchen aid, Levi jeans, Barbie, ray ban sunglasses, american tourister luggage, and thousands of other products.

China also dominates the world in production of steel, rare earth minerals, most electronics, solar panels, windmills, batteries, EVs etc. We can put 1000% tariffs on everything and wait for US companies to competitively produce all this. But our competitors will still buy all this stuff from China and have a competitive advantage over us.

President Musk
President Musk
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

You’re wasting your words… once a simp, always a simp.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  President Musk

You said the same thing to me. I am offended that you insulted PapaDave with the same words. At least you should personalize your insults. It’s common decency.

robbyrob Im back!
robbyrob Im back!
1 year ago

The world is underestimating the risk of a US recessionProtectionism threatens to fuel inflation, push up interest rates and end the bull run in equity markets https://archive.is/QHP2H#selection-2749.4-2753.111

robbyrob Im back!
robbyrob Im back!
1 year ago

When are tariffs good? National security, infant industries, national champions, and some more unorthodox theories. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/when-are-tariffs-good

Harold
Harold
1 year ago

Tariffs are simply a sales tax so never good.

Sentient
Sentient
1 year ago
Reply to  Harold

Assuming we need tax revenue, what’s the best kind of tax?

Call_Me_Al
Call_Me_Al
1 year ago
Reply to  Sentient

One that focuses on the financial sector. No sense penalizing actual productive work (e.g. personal income tax) when there is so much cream being skimmed off by activities that add no value.

Sentient
Sentient
1 year ago
Reply to  Call_Me_Al

Thanks. If you or Mish have any detailed suggestions, it would be nice to hear them.

Call_Me_Al
Call_Me_Al
1 year ago
Reply to  Sentient

Transaction charges and fees per the amount bet (wagered, if you will). I think the second should be based on the amount leveraged, not the nominal amount wagered.

When an algorithm can place repeated orders to try and move a market, tax each action whether or not it is executed.

That’s the start of a list, plenty of places to go from there.

Laura
Laura
1 year ago
Reply to  Sentient

Consumption federal tax for all non-food products. Also have a financial tax for each transaction. The financial tax triples if the money leaves the US.

Last edited 1 year ago by Laura
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Harold

You haven’t read your Adam Smith.

“It may sometimes be a matter of deliberation, how far it is proper to continue the freedom of trade in certain branches of industry and commerce, or whether the nation ought to give some extraordinary encouragement and protection to some of its own manufactures, particularly to those which are necessary for the defense of the country.”

The Wealth of Nations

Last edited 1 year ago by Doug78
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Unfortunately the supply chains have become so extended and defense needs so extensive that much that would have been excluded before has to be included today when we define “defense needs”.

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