Inflationistas Sound Alarm

Inquiring minds are diving into the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the BLS.

For the month, the CPI jumped 0.5% but year-over-year the CPI was flat.

CPI Year-Over-Year

CPI Year-Over-Year Major Categories

CPI Components

Shelter, the largest weighted component in the CPI, helped limit the month-over-month rise.

It’s curious the BLS does not consider shelter a “major category” even though it constitutes 32.8% of the CPI.

Inflationista Alarms

Spotlight Crude

The thin blue line in the above chart connects January 2017 to January 2018.

Four months from now, energy will give a big boost to the year-over-year CPI even if the price of crude remains steady.

The May 2107 close was $46.04. A jump from $46.04 to $60.81 would constitute a 32% year-over-year jump.

Crude will place increasing upward pressure on year-over-year CPI comparisons unless it takes a big dive soon.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock