Inflation, gonna see lot’s of it. FED would much rather have lots of inflation than deflation. A way outta this mess: link to youtube.com
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
Real estate is the perfect asset for money launderers. Have to wonder what percentage of these investors are simply laundering money or making dirty money disappear into the banking system.
“Real estate is the perfect asset for money launderers.”
And “money launderers”, like all hobgoblins, don’t really exist. Noone needs to be protected against them. Since they are all imaginary.
Instead, what these “investors” are, are just the same old, same old: Idiots who are being handed the loot that The Fed and government keep stealing, at an ever accelerating pace, from productive people. Nothing more sinister nor unusual than that.
America is a fully financialized dystopia now. Nothing else. That’s al it is. This is what life in such dystopias is like. There’s one enemy: The Fed. the rest, from “money launderers” to drug dealers to child molesters to terrorists are either enemy-of-enemy, or at worst so trivially irrelevant compared to the sheer tragicness of The Fed, that they matter not one whit whatsoever.
Intelligentyetidiot
2 years ago
when money dies…
Webej
2 years ago
Exactly as Jefferson said, money trusts are buying out America from under your feet (farmland too)
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered…. I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies…. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
No, they don’t. They need to reinstate Jefferson: No Fed, Gold at $20/oz. By the end of the day, this problem is solved. Just like that.
No ridiculous government overreaching “acts” required. Just stop the steal which is money printing, period.
Doug78
2 years ago
Is this trend sustainable? We often assume that these companies have infinite money because of low intestest rates but the principal will have to be repaid sooner or later and if the conditions for rolling over the loans aren’t good then they will have to sell usually in a rush and not at the best prices. We have seen this happen in commercial real estate more than once. They are buying at high prices. The smart ones bought in 2009-2013 at much lower prices. They could be pricing for perfect conditions and if they used borrowed money then they could have a problem. On the other hand if they are using cold hard cash aquired who knows how then they don’t care about the price.
I look for the trend to continue for some time, and I believe prices will stay high in the good markets.
It’s important to understand that as prices rise and cap rates fall……the higher the rate of inflation gets , the better the ROI on these institutional money deals gets. In a 10% inflation scenario they will make out like bandits, and they can flow cash very early with 90% LTV money with a ten year note.
I don’t think the math works nearly as well (actually I know it doesn’t) for cash buyers, because they lose all the leverage.
The idea is that America is shifting to become a nation of renters anyway, and so they might as well profit from it.
It’s worth mentioning that the falling cap rates will work to squeeze out the mom & pops, who have a different pro forma using 30 year money. It takes many more years to reach the sweet spot with cash flow that the big dogs can get to in the first year or two.
Several things are also in the pipeline that will support housing……tax credits for 1st time home buyers, lower down payments form FreddieMac, and I am reading about 40 year mortgages. These things…intended to help young buyers deal with the inevitably higher prices, will push prices even higher.
I am starting to see articles by the oil bulls talking about cashing out their spectacular gains of the last year, for those who bought the early pandemic crash in oil stocks. This might mean that sentiment is changing…..I hope it is, because I am waiting now to buy if we get another round of weakness. I see no reason my strategy needs to change, unless somebody (France maybe) starts turning out a great new generation of nukes.
I think Macron is doing the right thing by going that direction….but it remains to be seen if he can get it done. If he does, I think that changes my calculus a bit.
Eddie, you that market much better than me but perhaps I contribute
a bit in another way. I don’t know the that residential real estate market like
you but there is a different type of investor buying now and I do know their mentality
because I spent a lot of time within that milieu. The people buying are
probably not the investors themselves but are companies that charged with
finding and buying real estate to buy for the investors who have decided to put
X percent of their assets into RE because, well, it is going up. They are not
like you. You carefully calculate your return because it is your money. The
people in the market now are not using their money but their investors’ money. I
am sure you see the difference. In this level of financial institution the
mantra is “get the deal done”. If possible do it in a way so that the client
makes money or at least doesn’t lose much but the principal goal is the deal
because you are paid by the deal upfront and that is all that counts. If
evaluations are stretched then you are motivated to fit the stretch by
reasoning. They are salesmen at heart and practice even if they come bearing
spreadsheets to give them the aura of expertise. The investors behind them are
motivated by long-term but they rely on professionals who are not. All parties
know it but the game plays on.
Macron’s position on nuclear is not a minority opinion in
many counties in Europe now. About ten countries have petitioned the European
Commission to declare that nuclear power is green and should benefit from the
same conditions as other green companies. Germany, always the spoiler, is
leading the resistance but many countries have had enough of them in more ways
than one. Nuclear will advance in spite of them because as I have said before,
Europe is not a top-down entity but a collection of squabbling very original peoples
all existing because they have been fighting for their respective national
identities for over a thousand years. In the end they don’t care what Brussels
says but will do what they want.
You can roll it over until conditions change under your feet and you can not do it anymore. Evergrande is the best example of that happening.
PreCambrian
2 years ago
Another consequence of low interest rates. And of course those with the least need for a home can most afford it. There should be a tax policy to discourage investment in single family homes (apartments would be okay but condos would not). Capital gains could be taxed as ordinary income on single family homes owned for investment (this could be restricted to either new purchases or individuals or entities that own more than five, or some other arbitrary number, units).
Karlmarx
2 years ago
There is a logic to this as well. Since it is nearly impossible to get a mortgage more new families have to rent. Its a growing market and these are low risk renters. Banks and hedge finds have access to zero real interest mortgages so its a no brainer for them
anoop
2 years ago
with hyperinflation around the corner, this is one of the few options. people are buying every asset in sight — stonks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, crypto, nft, watches, art, …
We have had two instances in the past 15 years when deflation raised its head. In both cases, the Fed re-inflated the stuff before long. It took them a couple of years the first time, and the second time, they did it in less than 6 months.
so you’re choosing to believe the lies of the bankers that thought inflation would subside and they are now saying it may be here for longer and they keep moving the goal posts? remember, many “respected” economists (e.g. rosenberg) didn’t throw in the towel on being bearish on equities after the gfc until the stock market had seen literally 100%+ gains. the same will happen now.
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Eddie, you that market much better than me but perhaps I contribute
a bit in another way. I don’t know the that residential real estate market like
you but there is a different type of investor buying now and I do know their mentality
because I spent a lot of time within that milieu. The people buying are
probably not the investors themselves but are companies that charged with
finding and buying real estate to buy for the investors who have decided to put
X percent of their assets into RE because, well, it is going up. They are not
like you. You carefully calculate your return because it is your money. The
people in the market now are not using their money but their investors’ money. I
am sure you see the difference. In this level of financial institution the
mantra is “get the deal done”. If possible do it in a way so that the client
makes money or at least doesn’t lose much but the principal goal is the deal
because you are paid by the deal upfront and that is all that counts. If
evaluations are stretched then you are motivated to fit the stretch by
reasoning. They are salesmen at heart and practice even if they come bearing
spreadsheets to give them the aura of expertise. The investors behind them are
motivated by long-term but they rely on professionals who are not. All parties
know it but the game plays on.
Macron’s position on nuclear is not a minority opinion in
many counties in Europe now. About ten countries have petitioned the European
Commission to declare that nuclear power is green and should benefit from the
same conditions as other green companies. Germany, always the spoiler, is
leading the resistance but many countries have had enough of them in more ways
than one. Nuclear will advance in spite of them because as I have said before,
Europe is not a top-down entity but a collection of squabbling very original peoples
all existing because they have been fighting for their respective national
identities for over a thousand years. In the end they don’t care what Brussels
says but will do what they want.