It really is different this time. The BBBA eliminated the doomsday clock.
Q: How did that the BBBA influence the shutdown?
A: By upping the statutory debt ceiling.
The 2025 U.S. government shutdown differs from past ones in several key ways, with the debt ceiling increase in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) playing a central role in insulating this crisis from default risks that plagued earlier shutdowns.
It’s Different This Time
- The OBBBA, signed into law on July 4, 2025, raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, providing ample borrowing headroom (current debt is ~$38 trillion). This eliminates any immediate risk of default on interest payments or mandatory spending, unlike historical precedents.
- The 2013 shutdown (16 days) was exacerbated by a simultaneous debt ceiling standoff, where Treasury warned of potential missed payments if Congress didn’t act by mid-October—creating global market panic and forcing a last-minute compromise.
- The 2011 debt ceiling crisis (which nearly triggered a shutdown) similarly tied fiscal brinkmanship to borrowing limits, rating agencies downgraded U.S. debt, and it cost the economy ~$1.3 billion in lost output.
- Without debt ceiling pressure, this shutdown lacks the “doomsday clock” urgency of past episodes, allowing it to drag on longer (now 38 days, the record) as negotiations focus solely on discretionary funding disputes rather than existential borrowing fights.
Day 39 of the Shutdown
In essence, the OBBBA’s debt ceiling hike makes this shutdown “safer” from catastrophe but “stickier” politically, as it shifts focus to undoing the bill’s unpopular cuts (polls show 55% opposition).
In prior shutdowns, one side or the other (or both) had to blink over interest on the national debt or Social Security payments.
Trump inadvertently ended such brinkmanship for many months. And Democrats are emboldened.
Deal Pending?
Note: I wrote this post just before Democrats made an offer that Republicans have rejected so far.
I suspect a deal will happen soon.
But if both sides are still stubborn let’s address the next question.
How Long Can This Go On?
The short answer is no longer than it takes to approach the debt ceiling.
US gross national debt (total public debt outstanding) stands at approximately $38.3 trillion as of November 7, 2025.
The statutory debt ceiling, raised to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, leaves about $2.8 trillion in remaining headroom.
A surge in October 2025 added $419 billion from September 30 ($37.6 trillion) to October 22 ($38.019 trillion), or $19 billion daily—largely due to “extraordinary measures” catching up post-debt ceiling and shutdown-related cash flow strains.
Timeline to Approach the Ceiling
- At $18 billion per day, it would take about 156 days to exhaust the $2.8 trillion buffer.
- This points to mid-April 2026 (around April 11) as the approximate date when the debt nears the $41.1 trillion limit, triggering potential extraordinary measures by the Treasury (e.g., suspending investments in federal trust funds) to avert default.
That is likely the soonest there could be serious ceiling concerns. But debt growth isn’t steady. It’s influenced by tax receipts (e.g., quarterly filings in April could temporarily slow it), spending bills, and economic factors.
On August 14, 2025 I noted US Debt Now Grows by $1 Trillion Every 150 Days
US national debt just topped $37 trillion and is growing fast.
That’s ~6.7 billion per day, implying a buffer of over 1 year.
The max timeline, however, is something more like 200-300 days, but realistically much less due to practical concerns and politics.
Here’s another irony: The more Trump fires workers and stops payments to pressure Democrats (the more Republicans get the blame), and the longer this can go on.
Practical Limits
Q: Are there practical or political limits that would prevent a shutdown from lasting as long as discussed above?
A: Yes, that’s highly likely.
Meanwhile, however, Democrats seem emboldened by election victories and Trump is getting increasingly agitated.
Q: Anything else?
A: Yes, the longer this goes on, the weaker the economy gets.
There will be a spending surge once paychecks go out, but likely not to the full extent had the shutdown not happened at all.
Democrats would not mind a recession from a political standpoint. Republicans sure would. This dynamic puts added pressure on Trump politically to compromise.
In case you missed it, please see How Bad an Evening Did Republicans Have in November 4 Elections?
That’s what has angered Trump and emboldened Democrats. Meanwhile, we have set a new shutdown record.
However, there is now an offer on the table.
Please see Democrats Offer a One-Year Obamacare Extension Deal. Should Republicans Accept?
Think this through from every angle.
Republicans should take the offer. It would end the shutdown while giving Democrats only a 1-year Obamacare extension when they asked for 10 years.
No matter what happens in the midterms, Democrats would not be in any position to pass legislation. Trump would have a veto.
Click above for more discussion.
“A: Yes, the longer this goes on, the weaker the economy gets.”
It’s possible the Dems are trying to create a mild recession that will hurt Trump, but I don’t see it lasting 11/19 which approaches the doorstep of TG.
No, the Dems are not trying to create a mild recession They are heading us into a major (and perhaps an irreversable) recession. The worse things get the easier it will be to make major economic and political changes. All of which will allow them to create the One Party system that they want. To hell with saving America.
In essence, the OBBBA’s debt ceiling hike makes this shutdown “safer” from catastrophe but “stickier” politically, as it shifts focus to undoing the bill’s unpopular cuts (polls show 55% opposition).
55% opposition given the media bias is not that meaningful.
But Fox is the largest media outlet (newscorp) and is firmly in Trumps favor. Are you unaware or just daft?
Because of the shutdown, lots of payments won’t be made. How long will government workers continue on their jobs without pay? People have mortgages and car payments and their credit is affected. Mostly Americans blame Republicans but the reality is health care insurance and health care itself is too expensive and cries out for regulation. I got 2 stents and was #17 that day. Cost for 1 night in the hospital, $121,000. There was less than an hour of actual work. Republicans and Democrats protect the Medical Industrial Complex which is nearing 19% of GDP. The federal debt is over $38.2 trillion and growing fast. We’re going to have a debt crisis which will result in a 2nd Great Depression….worse than 1929 to 1954. Total debt in America is almost twice what it was in 1929. The Depression was largely a debt liquidation that lasted 20 years, most of the liquidation took place with businesses closing, banks going under, and massive unemployment. Talk to IT workers and they will tell you layoffs have started and it’s going to get a lot worse as AI replaces workers. That means mortgage defaults, car payment defaults, credit card defaults, and keep in mind there were no credit cards in 1929 and most people didn’t have cars. What’s coming will result in insane rescue attempts by the FED and Congress, money printing on a scale that’s never happened before, near zero interest rates…AGAIN, and a crash that will be so ubiquitous, Americans will be in a daze for years. Can democracy survive a cataclysmic depression that will be worse than the 1930s? I have my doubts.
A hospital is an extremely expensive endeavor. Lots of health insurance executives and hospital administrators to keep in billionaire and millionaire status. They thank you for doing your part. Especially if you fought all your life against having single payer socialistic healthcare system. They are ever so grateful.
Lobbying and the lack of term limits really prevents the necessary reform needed to ward off the scenario you are describing.
Trump and Pulte have an idea that 50 year mortgages will cure the real estate problem
So, never own anything ever
How about subscription housing plans?
Ohh, is that just renting?
If investors trim their positions in $1T/$5T market cap co, to take profit, SPX might get its first lower highs and lower lows. It means higher realized gains taxes. It means a bigger gov coffer. It doesn’t mean recession. They might park their money in gov treasuries, or rotate to different sectors.
Every day of the shutdown just makes the case stronger for term limits and a balanced budget amendment.
If only your wishful thinking were actually true.
We need more press coverage and interviews with the regular Americans all impacted by the shutdown, and a lot less press coverage of CONgress critters….
>> Trump inadvertently ended such brinkmanship…
FDR said nothing in politics is coincidence.
Bernie is poking his finger: remain firm and defend family workers. This old man is too aggressive: on Jan 4 Obamacare will be dead unless Trump mercy Barack Obama. Trump war chest: $1.5T plus $2T of unused open credit. Default risk: zero. Trump doesn’t need the dems. His gov can operate without them, but he might be kind with them. He doesn’t want to humiliate them. Trump is all over the place: The UK, Alaska, Israel, Sharm el Sheikh, S. Korea, Japan…Next week he will meet Syria al Sharaa. The IDF agreed to retreat. Syria agreed to give the Druz an autonomy. Trump will build Tucker/Fuentes airbase south of Damascus to keep the peace in the ME.
If the shutdown gets bad enough, Republicans might actually be welcome again at DC restaurants!
How big has the hit been so far to DC swamp creature grifting? Lobbyists must be getting furious at the gravy train disruption.
The shutdown has been going on a long time now and has anyone actually noticed (outside visitors to national parks?) any real change to their day to day life?
For example I just flew 2 round trips in the last 3 weeks (changing planes once in Atlanta and once in Charlotte so a total of 4 flights) and didn’t notice a single delay at any airport.
The longer this goes on, the easier it is to justify getting rid of a lot of Federal workers because if they are gone for a couple of months and no one notices, then it’s highly likely they were never needed in the first place which aligns with Trump/Musks DOGE initiative.
There are 3+ hour wait times in Houston airports (plural). I can understand no wait times in a place like Charlotte but Atlanta?
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2025/11/04/pack-your-patience-houston-airport-tsa-tips-to-beat-long-security-lines-at-iah-and-hobby/
I didn’t pass through security at either Charlotte or Atlanta. I only changed planes there. Incidentally, Charlotte’s airport is larger than you might think (7th busiest in the US and quite nice too), it has 5 terminals connected by a central hub.
The airports I went through security at (West Palm Beach – Florida, Mobile – Alabama) had literally no one in line (less than 1 minute wait).
One other thing I forgot to mention. I’ve been to Houston airport (IAH, the big one) many times since our corp headquarters is there.
Even in the best of times it has long lines (way longer than say Dallas or other major airports, only Toronto comes close in my mind). But a secret to know is that 1 terminal is for international flights. It’s NEVER busy security wise since most travelers are domestic so I always go through security at the international terminal and then walk to the terminal I am flying from. Easily saves 30+ minutes in line.
Get TSA pre-check or CLEAR, most credit cards offer that perk as a bonus. I never wait more than 10 minutes anywhere. Having GOLD status on an airline helps you breeze through international airport checkpoints too.
In Asia you can pay $15 to get VIP concierge service that escorts you through immigration/security bypassing the masses.
I have a NEXUS card which is better than either of those especially if you travel internationally (which I know you do). Gives all the benefits of TSA/Clear and more.
But even those lines get long at busy airports since SO many these days have TSA/Clear now so NEXUS most valuable when going international.
I have TSA Pre-Check, Clear and Global Entry. Clear is pretty useless, in most cases it is just another step. Global Entry is way better for international…
In Atlanta and LasVegas, PCNA shuttles me and family between planes/connections on the tarmac/taxiways in Cayennes.
Irony? This probably works well with Taco’s intent.
Bernie Sanders, Pocahontas, and Chuck Schumer are all going to time out if the shutdown drags on much longer!
China must be loving the shutdown; most assuredly their invasion plans for seizing Taiwan and all the TMSC gigafab chip plants is proceeding unimpeded.
Remember the Wu-Flu death counters on our hideous propaganda news outlets? They should do that for cancelled airline flights and lost corporate revenue and the number of Americans declaring bankruptcy as this manufactured crisis drags on.
I like how financial analysis everywhere just glosses over the fact that everything the Fed does is central planning/command economy/market intervention/not capitalism and not free markets….
The empire is broke. You can’t have ALL the guns and ALL the butter anymore….
I’d like to see the weekly shutdown hit to GDP as a running total like the debt clock displayed on all regime media television channels….
As soon as enough oligarchs are inconvenienced with their private jet flights being cancelled on the tarmac, this shutdown ends.
Convenient one year ACA extension gets the Democrats past the 2026 midterms, (and incentivize all the people who shouldn’t be here at all to stay another year), where they would then continue these ruinous healthcare policies in perpetuity.
Democrats have dangled a nice carrot in front of the Republicans so they can end the shut-down and get the vote on the Epstein files release. Sure Clinton and many others will go down ugly in a purge of the rich and powerful, but the Democrats would absolutely take the moral high ground as the heads roll.
Do not be surprised to see Rupert Murdoch and his cronies dragged into the fray given his previous forays into sexual abuse cases.
Trump IS THE SWAMP!
Yup i think part of sending congress home is to keep from swearing in the az dem. Its gonna get uglier. Imo trump is protecting himself and or others. Doj will do their best to protect him. Trump will do everything he can to stay in power to not face any punishment. Including midterms/ war / election fraud / gov take over. He will pardon everyone involved including himself. My observation is trump is one of those people who destroy those in his orbit. Very few escape unscathed. Will be the same for the republican party and the people of the country.
Wish i could remember where i heard it. For reference sake. Anyway whoever it was said the culture wars arose from know one wanted to vote for republicans after water gate. Might be the same for party if they are protecting a bunch of pedos. Maybe thats why mtg is switching her game.
Well see.
If I give this comment a thumbs down, it would make it a 10. I think that’s the highest rating.
Cute, but obfuscates the key point of contention…
Limited Financial Reporting – No ‘Epstein’ Arrests Or ‘Video’ Evidence Released – During Shutdown.!
Lock Her Up (2016) – Nobody At The Top Gone To Jail Yet!
He doesn’t talk about draining the swamp anymore – lol.
He is wiggling around in it. Banging Fox News wanna bees! LOL!
The problem is the republicans starting position is the status quo and 2 trillion annual deficits. It should have been massive spending cuts. They opened with the status quo which should have been a grudging compromise at best.
If I were republicans this is what I’d do from a strategic perspective.
Offer a bill that keeps spending exactly where it is and continue funding SNAP, but force the democrats to actually filibuster. Make them read from the phonebook for days on end on the senate floor in order to force the government to stay closed, and prevent funding of the government programs they so dearly love.
Part of the reason it isn’t clear who is shutting things down is they are not forcing this spectacle.
This allows the media to pretend its just democracy and they lack the votes to get to a majority when in fact the democrats are forcing a super majority. It is never mentioned that the democrats are filibustering to keep the government closed.
I agree with your assessment on deficits and where Republican positions aggressively cutting should have been more firmly staked out going into this.
Optically, I think they look slightly better than Democrats, (no matter how much regime media favors the left in their skewed coverage), but the bitter RINO-NEOCON-UNIPARTY piece of the Republican Party still has more members in Congress than the Freedom Caucus actual conservative part of the party, so status quo was always going to win.
Feature, not bug.
No one wants responsible government anymore. They just want to push up prices for everything so they can get their “free” subsidy money. How far the USA has fallen…
I want a responsible government!
But I also know that our system, in its present functional iteration, no longer allows many ethical legislators into the mix. Both parties have withheld the Epstein files and protected the criminals from prosecution.
This makes them accomplices.
Trumps relationship with Epstein went on for many years. Trump even complained publicly that Epstein “Stole” one of “His Underage Girls”. Trump also stated on the Howard Stern show that “I have no age limit” when asked about sexual activity with young women.
Trump is a morally and financially bankrupt Narcissist. He is a global bully and is doing lasting damage the the United States reputation in the world.
The economic reckoning for our spiraling debt load is accelerating exponentially faster toward us as Trump failed to deliver on reigning in spending. Trump has lied to all of us repeatedly and with his pathology, he lies to himself.
The dangers to our society and our freedoms are increasing and while I believe I am prepared as well as can be, none of us are as safe as we were before Trump.
55% opposition aligns nicely with thr percentage of the population receiving some form of government handout. Why is this surprising?
As long as the government is shut down, furloughed employees are not paid. This helps to improve the federal government’s cash flow. While a debt is incurred for those working and not getting paid, they are guaranteed to be repaid by statue. And they truly earned it. Furloughed employees sitting home only get paid if funding to re-open the government includes them; otherwise, they had an unpaid vacation and still get to keep their jobs.
By extending the shutdown so long that back pay for furlough employees doing no work accumulates, the amount may be so large that Congress will not approve it when re-opening the government. Why should taxpayers be on the hook for half a year’s salary for no work performed?
Another strategy for keeping the government shut down as long as possible might be to induce some furloughed employees to file for retirement to get some sort of income during the shutdown. Or quit to find a job in the private sector.
There are many angles to the situation that are buried in finance and law that I’m sure more will come to light.
…Why should taxpayers be on the hook for half a year’s salary for no work performed?…
talkin about the House, eh
“Why should taxpayers be on the hook for half a year’s salary for no work performed?”
How do we know they were performing any work to begin with? 🙂
How the Trump Administration Is Giving Even More Tax Breaks to the Wealthy
The Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service are issuing rules that provide hundreds of billions of dollars in tax relief to big companies and the ultrarich.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/business/trump-administration-tax-breaks-wealthy.html?unlocked_article_code=1.zk8.YW0R.VZBXW2Q2G36-&smid=url-share
What should alarm Republicans is that the Michigan consumer confidence indicator compiled for independent voters in November slumped to its lowest level ever (45.0). While Republican voters have their heads solidly embedded in sand (91.9), Democrats (33.2) are now closely aligned with the mood of independents. The heartening message in these survey results is that spreading BS about the economy only convinces the cult that happens to be in power.
What parts of Michigan?
It’s a national survey based on a sample of about 500 US households. And it’s a highly respected consumer survey that is usually reading the country’s mood quite well … as Republicans found out last Tuesday.
Excellent post. I am awarding this a two star Mishelin post for exemplary research and analysis.
The shutdown may last till April but the economy won’t last till then. Flight cancellations are increasing and if this keeps up we won’t have an airline ecosystem. The air traffic controller union says air traffic controllers are resigning and once they are gone it will take a long time to replace them. This at a time we’re in a demographic death spiral and young people with an entirely different work ethic that previous generations.
This post gave me a great idea around puts and I need to go off and do some research.
Thanks a million! 🙂
Keep rolling those puts forward and pretty soon …
The market can remain irrational longer than many can remain solvent!
Be careful with things like VIX options, the IV crush is real and can trap you!
Take a look at what the VIX did on Friday the 7th. spiked up over 22 and settled at 19 with that ever present “Buy the dips” activity. It is no longer bouncing around between 14 & 16 so that indicates a rising concern that the AI bubble will burst and splatter market guts all over the economy.
Trying to think of the damage for an ai bubble pop. Besides the stock market. What will be the effect on the economy as a whole. Since ai layoffs are already happening.
I have some Vix calls for end of November that I bought a long time ago. Well see if they print tendies.
There are large option put contracts for December 19 $610 strikes and February 15 $610 strikes. Maybe some hedge fund hedging. I might tag along.
I have 350 +/- 200 Dec and Jan 20 calls. I trade a few hundred whenever I have a 10% profit. This covers my longer term rolling IV crush and gives me a bit of protection against the larger portfolio’s potential losses.
In all fairness, I have recently sold come APPL. QQQ, INTC, NVDA, PLTR. and a few others to move to cash and upped my holdings in AEM.
You’d think Air Traffic Control is one job AI should be able to replace workers at quite quickly. It’s all data driven and all the data is essentially there.
Except when AI hallucinates or gets hacked and crashes a plane or two.
exactly. the only way AI would take over ATC would be after a lengthy development effort that provides a ton of cyber controls to minimize the opportunities for malfeasance or failure. I work in Aerospace and there are a ton of considerations for safety that are built into any new system – the stakes are simply too high not to implement a lot of safeguards and then verify the safeguards actually work before approving a new system, or new launch or any other high stakes system.
It would be military grade stuff (CPU, coding, AI learning etc) since it’s all government. Not sure when the last time military stuff went haywire but it doesn’t happen often because they spend a lot to make sure it doesn’t get hacked or hallucinate.
One year extension will just cause another shut down right before mid terms
nope…
Long live the shutdown. The sky isn’t falling. The inept aren’t at work doing what inept people do. Plus, the Administration is free to execute their agenda. Democrats are playing into a no-win situation. Yes, it can’t go on forever once the debt ceiling is reached but I’m enjoying it.
The Democrats welcome your unbridled support for their cause.
.
What appears as Trump Corruption appears to be exposed more and more each day. Sadly he was in most part elected to stop the corruption . Not to mention The BBB increasing the deficit – while Americans are paying the lions share of the Tariffs that were going to pay off the deficit.
EG: The Trump Corruption / Argentina Affair —- Robert “Rob” Citrone,
The Key Figure: Robert Citrone
Robert “Rob” Citrone, a billionaire hedge fund manager and founder of Discovery Capital Management, which oversees approximately $2.8 billion in assets. Citrone is a vocal supporter of Donald Trump and the Republican Party, having donated significantly to GOP causes and super PACs during the 2024 election cycle.
More pertinently, he provided indirect financial assistance to Trump through his long-standing professional partnership with Scott Bessent, Trump’s appointee as Treasury Secretary. In 2013, while both worked at George Soros’s Soros Fund Management, Citrone persuaded Bessent (and Soros) to execute a highly profitable macro trade betting on the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen—a position that reportedly generated substantial returns, including a personal windfall for Bessent estimated in the tens of millions. This episode underscores Citrone’s role as a financial benefactor within Trump’s inner circle, blending investment acumen with political loyalty.
Public records and financial disclosures indicate Citrone’s motivations were twofold: ideological alignment with Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei (a Trump ally)
++++ and personal financial gain from his distressed debt holdings.
Extent of Citrone’s Argentine Debt Purchases
Precise figures on Citrone’s exposure remain partially opaque, However, based on regulatory disclosures and market analyses:
Principal Holdings: Citrone has held Argentine sovereign bonds since at least 2023, attracted by their high yields (nearing 20% amid default risks).
A June 2025 filing for Discovery Capital revealed Argentine debt instruments comprising roughly 15-20% of the fund’s portfolio, equating to an estimated $400-550 million in face value.
These include dollar-denominated bonds maturing in 2030-2035, which traded at deep discounts (around 40-50 cents on the dollar) earlier in 2025 due to default fears.
Recent Acquisitions:
In early September 2025—mere days before Bessent’s public announcement of U.S. support—Citrone directed additional purchases, scaling up his position by an estimated $100-200 million.
This timing has fueled speculation of insider knowledge, though no formal investigations have been launched as of November 2025. Post-announcement, these bonds rallied sharply (e.g., the 2035 issue rose from 55 to 60.5 cents on the dollar), potentially yielding Citrone gains exceeding 20-30% on his total exposure, or $150-250 million in unrealized profits.
In aggregate, Citrone’s Argentine debt holdings likely total $500-750 million in nominal terms, positioning him among the top private U.S. investors in the country’s distressed securities.
Citrone’s advocacy for Argentina was direct and timely. As the South American nation’s economy faltered in April 2025—amid hyperinflation exceeding 200% annually, a peso devaluation of over 50%, and mounting pressure on its $400 billion external debt stock—he lobbied Bessent to secure an IMF agreement. This intervention paved the way for the U.S.-led package, with Citrone reportedly communicating through Bessent’s channels to President Trump.
Big win for Citrone and looks like Bessent and Trump will get their share
.
So more grifting on a larger scale
.
funny – I see you got 2 downvotes – I only got one
for discussing US corruption
amazing – complain about corruption and people are angry with you
“In early September 2025—mere days before Bessent’s public announcement of U.S. support—Citrone directed additional purchases, scaling up his position by an estimated $100-200 million.”
It just does not get any more obvious.
.
Citrone was not happy enough just to make a profit by getting US taxpayers to bail out his bad investment (on which he was taking 20% return) – so greedy he had to invest more and take more of US taxpayer money
In early September 2025—mere days before Bessent’s public announcement of U.S. support—Citrone directed additional purchases, scaling up his position by an estimated $100-200 million.
And someone down votes the post for exposing corruption
Citrone knew no one would do anything about this second tranche obviously knowing the US was stepping in and he could profit even more
It’s a bit funny – and if you wonder why corruption happens – it is because even though corruption in this instance is slapping us in the face and stealing US taxpayer money – and the guy put down additional funds once he learned Us would step in – if you point that out – people will downvote it
Now we know why Trump gutted the SEC. He must prevent scrutiny for what would have resulted in criminal investigations and prosecution with an intact and independent SEC.
As we know, Trump has no respect for the rule of law and congress and the senate are complicit in protecting themselves as far as participation goes.
The saying went “If the US catches a cold, the word gets the flu.
Now the US has Cancer and the world is in trouble.
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