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Is Omicron a Variant of Concern or a Variant of Unconcern and Hope?

Glimmers of Hope

In the fight against Omicron, Scientists See Glimmers of Hope

The new evidence is so far largely anecdotal, sometimes contradictory and far from sufficient to draw hard scientific conclusions, but some of it suggests vaccines help prevent serious illness and curb the spread of the variant.

An Israeli probe into the case of a 45-year-old cardiologist who contracted Omicron showed he attended conferences in London and in Israel and came into contact with more than 100 people over several days after returning home.

But so far, there is only one known person to have contracted the Omicron variant from him: another physician, 70 years old, who was in the car with his colleague without a mask, said Gili Regev-Yochay, director of the infectious disease epidemiology unit at Sheba Medical Center in central Israel, where both infected physicians work.

Researchers at the University of Hong Kong’s microbiology department said they isolated the Omicron variant from clinical specimens late Monday, a development that could help the Chinese vaccine makers that the team had shared its findings with.

Infectious diseases professor Yuen Kwok-yung, who led the research effort, said the team was planning further lab studies using mice to test the transmissibility of Omicron and its capability for evading the body’s immune system.Hong Kong has so far found four patients infected with the Omicron variant, three during their stay in hotel quarantine and another in a transit passenger.

For two of the patients who had been fully vaccinated with mRNA vaccines within six months, their symptoms were very mild, Prof. Yuen said. He added that their antibody levels in blood samples went up 10 times within a few days of their infection being found.

This is very satisfactory in terms of immunological memory,” he said. “It seems to me that if you’ve received the mRNA vaccines and you get infected by the Omicron virus, the immunological memory and recruitment of the immune response is very fast.

Ugur Sahin, co-founder of vaccine developer BioNTech SE, said Tuesday that, while the new variant might evade the antibodies generated in reaction to the vaccines, the virus will likely remain vulnerable to immune cells that destroy it once it enters the body. “Our message is: Don’t freak out, the plan remains the same: Speed up the administration of a third booster shot,” he said.

Minor Reaction In Those Vaccinated

The article referenced cases in Israel, Japan, Scotland, Australia, and Hong Kong where the persons infected all were vaccinated.

In every case, symptoms of Omicron were mild and the antibody reaction fast among the vaccinated. 

Kids Under 2 Are 10% of Hospital Cases in South Africa

In South Africa, where the vaccination rate is low, Kids under 2 are 10% of the Omicron Hospital Cases.  

Children under the age of 2 account for about 10% of total hospital admissions in the omicron epicenter Tshwane in South Africa, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

More kids are being admitted than during the early stages of the country entering the current fourth wave of infections, although a similar trend occurred during the third wave when delta was dominant, said Waasila Jassat, public health specialist at the institute. 

“The very young children have an immature immune system and they are also not vaccinated, so they are more at risk,” said Jassat, who was part of developing and managing South Africa’s national hospital surveillance system for Covid-19.

She said that part of the increased rate of admissions may reflect extra precaution on the part of parents given the new concern about the mutation. A pediatric report due later this week should provide more information.

In Tswane, the municipality that includes the capital Pretoria, 52 children under the age of 2 diagnosed with the coronavirus have been admitted and one has died, Jassat said. It’s not yet clear whether they contracted omicron, currently the region’s dominant strain.

“People are more likely to admit children as a precaution because if you treat them at home something can go wrong — especially very young children because there is a higher proportion of death,” Jaffat said.

Good News and Bad News 

The good news is obvious. Vaccinations have a benefit. 

The bad news is equally obvious. There will soon be pressure to get everyone vaccinated, even kids. Many will see that and howl. 

Thus, to answer my lead question, some will make a case for both.

The key point, however, is that cases in Israel, Japan, Scotland, Australia, and Hong Kong suggest fears of Omicron are overblown.

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59 Comments
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CristiC
CristiC
4 years ago
A recent study published in AHA Cardiology journal said that a cohort of over 500 subjects enrolled in a 8-year study for monitoring the PLUS markers that predict coronary acute syndrome had at least 2.5 months after vaccination the markers elevated which point to an increased risk from 11% to 25% in a 5-year window. This study was discussed in a news report by a courageous doctor.
CristiC
CristiC
4 years ago
Reply to  CristiC
If you do not trust VAERS or other US-based systems, please look at the Switzerland report of serious adverse effects (defined as per WHO criteria). One vaccinated in 1650 will be hospitalized after vaccination. This is the worst therapeutic ever used in mass inoculations.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Reply to  CristiC
“Safe and effective.” It is a marketing slogan, nothing more.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  CristiC
At least the authorities there actually evaluated the entries before deciding  to ignore most of them by saying they weren’t “serious” enough, which seems to be far more than the CDC does here in the USA..
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Open Access | Peer-reviewed
Research Article
Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens
PLOS
Published: July 27, 2015
Abstract
Could some vaccines drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens? Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek’s disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.
Author Summary
There is a theoretical expectation that some types of vaccines could prompt the evolution of more virulent (“hotter”) pathogens. This idea follows from the notion that natural selection removes pathogen strains that are so “hot” that they kill their hosts and, therefore, themselves. Vaccines that let the hosts survive but do not prevent the spread of the pathogen relax this selection, allowing the evolution of hotter pathogens to occur. This type of vaccine is often called a leaky vaccine. When vaccines prevent transmission, as is the case for nearly all vaccines used in humans, this type of evolution towards increased virulence is blocked. But when vaccines leak, allowing at least some pathogen transmission, they could create the ecological conditions that would allow hot strains to emerge and persist. This theory proved highly controversial when it was first proposed over a decade ago, but here we report experiments with Marek’s disease virus in poultry that show that modern commercial leaky vaccines can have precisely this effect: they allow the onward transmission of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Thus, the use of leaky vaccines can facilitate the evolution of pathogen strains that put unvaccinated hosts at greater risk of severe disease. The future challenge is to identify whether there are other types of vaccines used in animals and humans that might also generate these evolutionary risks.
Scooot
Scooot
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
I now think the authorities are well aware of these risks.  
The UK health Secretary, Sajid Javid, said today, referring to a deal to secure 114 million doses,   “These new deals will future proof the Great British vaccination effort – which has so far delivered more than 115 million first, second and booster jabs across the UK – and will ensure we can protect even more people in the years ahead.”
They’re setting us up to require regular vaccinations for the rest of our lives in a fight against nature.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
With the same success probability of stopping sea level rise with seawalls and dikes.  Nature is too powerful and too smart for puny humans.
astroboy
astroboy
4 years ago
I think there’s a real threat from omicron. Not because it’s more deadly or infectious (seems like it’s not at this point) but that the presence of yet other covid mutation might drive other countries into a stampede to approve molnupiravir like the UK has. OK, a drug that encourages covid to mutate? Yeah, it sounds great that it makes every single one of the trillions upon trillions of each little covid particle mutate itself to death. Except, of course, when it doesn’t, since I’m pretty such nothing works correctly a trillion trillion times in a row.  God knows what will happen when a highly mutated form of covid shows its ugly little head but I’m pretty sure it won’t be good. 
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
4 years ago
I see the Omicron variant as a sign the virus is about to end. Unfortunately I believe the government will become even more authoritarian despite the decreasing potency of the virus (science). The focus last year was hospitalizations, ICU and deaths. With Omicron it’s simply cases, even though enough time has passed to get a sense that hospitalizations, ICU, and deaths are much less severe than in 2020. Governments are moving the goalposts farther from science and closer to authoritarianism. US Federal Courts realize this and have smacked the Biden administration’s OSHA vaccine mandate 4 times.
Stan888
Stan888
4 years ago
I’m not afraid of catching another version of the sniffles
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  Stan888
The relevant question is really whether other people are entitled to be sufficiently afraid that you’ll infect and kill them, to justify them blowing you away to prevent you from nonchalantly  getting within germ spreading distance of them…… Whether Billy the Kid was personally afraid of lead bullets ad gunfights or not, isn’t really all that relevant.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
The COVID World post date: November 30th, 2021
Last weekend, a group numbering in the hundreds staged a mourning march in Parma, Italy to commemorate those who have died as a result ofthe COVID-19 vaccine. The marchers held up pictures of the dead as they moved in solemn procession through central Parma, chanting the names of those lost to the experimental vaccines.
Some of the victims being remembered in the march have been documented on this website, such as Stefano Paternò,
Sofia Benharira, Giulia Lucenti, and Traian Calancea.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
“There will soon be pressure to get everyone vaccinated, even kids. Many will see that and howl.”
Understandably. “As of Nov. 12, the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) had received more than 25,000 reports of injuries or deaths following COVID vaccination of 12- to 17-year-olds.”
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
FYI. Scott Gottlieb is re-tweeting this, and it looks like good info to me. It suggests a very fast, rising wave of Omicron in South Africa, but with less severe disease…so.far.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Dutch authorities have discovered omicron cases in test samples from two weeks ago.
This means we have to close all the borders retroactively to stop the spread.
More kids are being admitted than during the early stages of the country entering the current fourth wave of infections
Exactly as predicted by people such as Geert Vanden Bossche, who said infectious pressures would lead to more increasing infections among those who had initially resisted infection. Spoiler alert: He doesn’t think we will vaccinate our way out of this, and his background is in veterinary vaccines where they have run a lot more experiments of this type.
The four travellers in who this was first discovered were of course doubly vaccinated, as was true of all the flight passengers who have spread it to the corners of the earth.
Dean2020
Dean2020
4 years ago
Here we go again! hahaha
CDC says vaccinations are the key to protection for the new variant even though they were designed for the original spike and wane to zero protection after seven months. 
I guess this is more ‘science’ since all required tests have been conducted to so quickly. hahahah
First case in the US with the new variant is fully vaccinated. 
The results are consistent and predictable but the dumb government worker spin regarding protection is laughable.
Please don’t trust lazy government workers with your health.
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
OT…the Ernest Hemingway Estate just signed with the Gersh Agency. I hope it means new Hemingway movies. Hemingway left behind four posthumous novels….all great imho, and none of which has ever been made into a movie, I don’t think.
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
I was wrong. Islands in the Stream was made into a movie, although I never saw it. Hmmm. Maybe not a good movie. lol.
bubblelife
bubblelife
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Hemingway’s Boat by Paul Hendrickson is an excellent biography
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  bubblelife
I have that book. Full of great photos from the bill-fishing days of the early 30’s.
astroboy
astroboy
4 years ago
Reply to  bubblelife
Good read. I’m half way thru and saving the rest for when I have the time to appreciate it. 
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Good book.
astroboy
astroboy
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
I liked it and I don’t know of anyone who saw it who didn’t. George C. Scott was the main character, that is, Hemingway himself, pretty much, and he played the part extremely well. Scott never made a bad movie that I can recall offhand.
The Garden of Eden might make a good flick, it would lend itself to a lot of gratuitous nudity and hot lesbo action. Perhaps I should say “entertaining’ rather than “good”.
A Moveable Feast might be good for an artsy sort of thing if you had good actors and stuck to the actual book.
True at First Light was at the very very best just an OK book and could easily be turned into a horrible movie. 
thimk
thimk
4 years ago
we can’t vaccinate people ad infinitum, at a certain  point society will have to face the music. Best face the music with a weakened virus . And that my friends,  we should be very thankful for.    
davebarnes2
davebarnes2
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
Why not?
I plan to get a shot every 6 months.
I am ready to pay $100+ for each shot.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
“we can’t vaccinate people ad infinitum”
Wy not?
It seems more likely that “we” can’t continue to increase population densities and interconnectedness ad infinitum, WITHOUT providing immune systems evolved for low population density, low number of predominantly geographically close contacts with a bit of a head start. Humanity as of today, would simply not be sustainable absent “augmentation” of human-engineered environment modifiers. No a priori reason to believe human immune systems will be able to cope better with viruses without a helping hand; than plant ones cope with insects, absent pesticides and other engineered solutions.
EGW
EGW
4 years ago
New variants are a good development in my view. Viruses mutate to become more transmissible and less deadly in order to survive.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  EGW
Viruses don’t decide how to mutate.
Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
EGW is correct. The Grand Design supports everything he said. Nature does not want to kill off its host. It wants to reproduce and survive.
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
Theory of Intelligent Molecular Design. lol.
The correct way to say what EGW was trying to say, is that viruses that mutate to become more transmissible and less deadly have an advantage when it comes to evolutionary biology.
thimk
thimk
4 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
Try taking a selfie with a polar bear. For a virus you are not its host but its means of reproduction like in the movie “Alien”.
Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Try taking a picture with a Polar Bear after getting a vaccine. Same results. You have introduced a new variable. Also plenty of humans to eat. Humans are not the host,  the Arctic ecosystem is the host. Actually people taking selfies with Polar Bears are not necessary for the survival of any ecosystem.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
You are anthropologizing nature and viruses by extension. Unless you believe that nature has a consciousness saying this or that “wants” is not at all accurate but is only a crutch used to explain phenomena in a way the layman could relate to as opposed to the expert who knows that nature just is. People taking selfies with polar bears was probably not the best thing to say although I believe that the Arctic ecosystem did not decide to entice the person to contribute to the bear’s calorie intake but I do not rule out the bear acted cute and inoffensive in order to bring the selfie-taker closer. 
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  EGW
This is true, but is only a statistical probability.
Trouble is, with the vaccine we have changed the evolutionary pressure, removing the costs of being more virulent (lethal), b/c people who contract it are asymptomatic and spread it, instead of being ill /dead and isolating.
shamrock
shamrock
4 years ago
On the other hand, 10% of the people on flight from South Africa to Netherlands were infected.  And the majority of a Portuguese soccer team were infected(https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/29/world/europe/portugal-omicron-soccer-team.html), that suggests it’s very contagious. 
It’s hard to believe anything coming out of Israel anymore since they are always the source of studies that contradict the conclusions of 99% of other studies. 
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Good news on the story that suggests low transmissibility….that seemed more of a concern (to me)  than morbidity/mortality with this variant.
I do think the hype appears to be very overblown….but I do understand the initial concern, given the weird pedigree of Omicron. But maybe we get back to near-normal pretty quickly.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Worst I’ve read about it is a report out of Israel that says vaxxed people react about the same to it as delta, and unvaxxed are about twice as likely to get hospitalized than delta… so a potential hospital surge driven by sick kooks, but nothing much that I find concerning. 
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
 “Let’s get ready to rumble!” 
Over / Under on comments
75?
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
Enter the trolls. 
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
They aren’t trolling.  They’re really that crazy.
Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
And the Billy-Goats Gruffs
ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
4 years ago
It is in the virus’ interest to become endemic and milder over time.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
A virus doesn’t ponder its interests, or make strategic or tactical plans.  It’s all trillions of dice rolls.
Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Symbiotic life doesn’t ponder, it exists in harmony. Most mutations are unsuccessful and die out. The successful ones are generally easier going on their host.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Yes. Plus selective pressures. The vaccines have change the ecology and the selective pressures exercised on variant strains.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
But the mRNA/Spike Protein type shots throw a wrench into that equation due [at least] to their leaky, non-sterilizing approach.  Read up on Marek’s disease in chickens for where this may lead.
This article explains the problems:
goldguy
goldguy
4 years ago
The good news is not obvious…This appears to be the beginning of VEI
Mish
Mish
4 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
The obvious problem to that reply is it is the unvaccinated who are dying and hospitalized. 
goldguy
goldguy
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Hmm, I read it differently,
Fourteen fully vacci-
nated patients became severely ill or died, the two unvaccinated
patients developed mild disease
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
The takeaway is that vaccination is not a substitute for masks, social distancing and good hygiene. 
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
Exactly. There have been slight signals of VEI in the data so far, and this signal is a little more ominous.
VEI is the absolute nightmare scenario…
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
“It appears to be grossly negligent to ignore the vaccinated population as a possible and relevant source of transmission when deciding about public health control measures.”
Implies that the intelligent are finally killing off the unintelligent for a change. Good to see natural selection come in to play so directly.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
And as the vaccination effects wear off they become the unvaccinated again.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
The vaccination does not wear off: antibody levels wane, but there is built up memory of the immune reaction.
However, the immune system is complex, and for some reason the learned immune reaction is much less effective after vaccination than natural inoculation: one reason is that natural immunity targets the whole virus, including the envelope and proteins other than the spike, whereas the vaccine reaction is narrow & specific, limited to spike proteins. But the story is much more complicated, and I don’t think we understand exactly or fully why the cascading reaction of the immune system is different in natural infections than in the vaccine elicited version.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
Some vaccines are more or less permanent such as the smallpox one but the covid vaccines have shown not to prevent new infection although they can make that infection less grave. It’s the nature of the covid family. They are tricky bastardos.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
No, it’s the nature of an insufficient solution in the guise of mRNA shots.  This should be obvious to anyone who has been following this subject.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
After Sars 1 emerged in China in 2002 they and others tried to make a vaccine against it. Sars 1 had a much higher death rate so the the need was urgent. Coronaviruses are notoriously difficult for vaccines because they can cause a sever reaction in the body. In China they made a vaccine against it and tested it on Humanized c-Myc mice who have been bred to have an immune system that mimic ours. The vaccine produced good quantities of antibodies against the Sars1. Everyone was happy until they exposed the mice to Sars 1 in the air. Every mouse died in a couple of days by Hypercytokinemia, the Cytokine storm. Creating antibodies is the easy part. Keeping them from killing the host is the hard part. Coronaviruses are very tricky.  
astroboy
astroboy
4 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
Um, I must have missed out. What does VEI stand for? 
Thanx!

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