As background to this post, note that the president of Italy is a figurehead with little day to day power. However, the president has a role in elections and the formation of a government.
The doomed from the beginning coalition of M5S and the League failed earlier this month.
I commented Italy’s Gov’t Collapses, Prime Minister Resigns: What’s it Mean? What’s Next?
The collapse was long in the making as the only thing the parties had in common was an anti-immigration stance. At the time the coalition formed, the Five Star Movement (M5S) was the senior party with the League (previously the Northern League) as the junior party.
The League now dominates the polls. The collapse was triggered last week when the 5 Star Movement (M5S), Salvini’s coalition partner, attempted to derail a high-speed rail link that the League (Lega) wanted.
The collapse became official today with the resignation of Giuseppe Conte, the compromise Prime Minister. Neither the leader of M5S nor the League held the highest office.
Forcing a New Unstable Government
Please consider Italy May Find Out Today Whether It Gets New Government or Vote.
Head of state Sergio Mattarella meets with Italy’s main political leaders on Wednesday in a last-ditch bid to carve out a viable majority in parliament, after a day of brinkmanship, finger-pointing and recriminations between the two parties trying to put together a new government.
Mattarella’s second day of consultations features talks with the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement, long-time rivals now bound by a desire to work together to forestall early elections that would likely be won by Matteo Salvini’s rightist League.
The president has set a tight deadline to see if there’s a chance the Democrats and Five Star can reach an agreement on a new coalition, after Salvini knocked the populist government on its head earlier this month in a risky bid to capitalize on voter support and move to early elections.
Blending Oil and Water Again
A government of M5S and PD is no more viable than M5S and the League. The only thing those parties had in common was an anti-immigration, anti-establishment stance.
The Italian president wants M5S to join up with PD even though M5S came into government on an anti-PD platform.
If you are asking “How the hell can this ever work?” then you are asking the right question.
This is a power grab attempt by the president to stall elections that could possibly result in a very anti-euro, anti-immigration, anti-EU government.
Foolish Effort
The effort is foolish.
A new election now would certainly put the League into power, but perhaps by not enough of a margin to give leader Matteo Salvini a majority large enough to modify the constitution.
M5S will hugely damage itself if it forms an alliance with its former primary opposition.
Salvini’s Gambit
Possibly by the time you read this, the government will have officially collapsed with new elections called. Alternately, another unstable government will have formed.
Salvini’s gambit by collapsing the prior government with M5S should be easy to spot.
Salvini is willing to bet on an election win sooner or an even bigger election win later if M5S marginalizes itself with an unstable alliance with arch-enemy PD.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I would not be surprised if Salvini knew his decision to withdraw from the coalition would lead to M5S-PD tie up. This new coalition then fails in a short amount of time and M5S gets the blame and is tarnished in the process which further increases support for the League. Brilliant if that was indeed the plan.
Well, I will predict the effort to tie Salvinin’s hands by forming this “unlikely” alliance will, in fact, succeed in the short term. The real calculation starts with the fear that Salvini will win a working majority in the near term case, so the further term case of Salvini winning even bigger later isn’t in the calculation. Politicians in general only plan for the short term.
If things don’t improve economically under any new government he will point to himself as the only way forward, others having failed.
The hurdle to jump over to show improvement will be even lower in all likelihood after this dalliance unless there are some real ECB fireworks in Sept.
As people become more frustrated there’s every chance they will through caution to the wind and go all in Salvini. The real change can then begin.
This would mean the end of M5S. Being opposition to PD was half of the reason for their existence. If they form a government with them, they will get no votes at all in the next election.
PDs #1 program item is flooding the country with as many invaders from Africa as possible. They are catastrophic for Italy and for all Europe.
People in Italy were much better off with the Mafia still calling the shots; live and let live, do what you got to do and respect the omerta and you ll be fine….When compared with the cesspool the EU created, those were definitely the days !
If you mean Giulio Andreotti, you are probably right. Then again, everything was much saner in those days compared the deranged liberalism (a catchall term) sweeping Europe. The seeds of it were sown long ago, drip by drip it became what it is today.
You hit the nail on the head.
“Salvini is willing to bet on an election win sooner or an even bigger election win later if M5S marginalizes itself with an unstable alliance with arch-enemy PD.”