Job Openings Dive But Quits Tell a Better Story of the Weakening Job Market

Please consider the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for March 2023.

Job Openings

• On the last business day of March, the number of job openings decreased to 9.6 million (-384,000) and was 1.6 million lower than in December. T
• he job openings rate was 5.8 percent in March and was down by 1.0 percentage point since December. 
• In March, job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-144,000) but increased in educational services (+28,000). 

Hires

• In March, the number of hires was little changed at 6.1 million.
• The hires rate held at 4.0 percent.
• Hires decreased in real estate and rental and leasing (-29,000).

Separation Description

• Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.
• Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.
• Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

Separation Numbers

• The number of total separations changed little at 5.9 million in March, and the rate was 3.8 percent for the fourth month in a row. 
• Over the month, the number of total separations decreased in accommodation and food services (-107,000) but increased in construction (+104,000). 
• In March, the number and rate of quits changed little at 3.9 million and 2.5 percent, respectively. 
• The number of quits decreased in accommodation and food services (-178,000). 
• In March, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges increased to 1.8 million (+248,000) and 1.2 percent, respectively. 
• Layoffs and discharges increased in construction (+112,000), accommodation and food services (+63,000), and health care and social assistance (+42,000). 
• The number of other separations was little changed in March at 276,000. Other separations decreased in finance and insurance (-31,000) and in real estate and rental and leasing (-7,000). 

Layoffs in construction (+112,000), accommodation and food services (+63,000), and health care and social assistance is significant.

Quits by Sector in Thousands

Quits Discussion

• Quits have peaked everywhere.
• Relative strength is in the Leisure and Hospitality sector and the Accommodation and Food Service sector, where you would expect it the most.
• Relative weakness is in Professional and Business Services, Retail Trade, Manufacturing, and Construction.
• The plunge in Professional and Business Services is notable. 

With layoffs jumping in the leisure and hospitality, construction, and health care sectors, the odds of a Fed “accident” keep increasing.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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