The BLS reports an increase in job openings in August, while quits are mostly steady. 
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS)
The JOLTS Survey shows job openings increase to 9.6 million in August; hires and total separations changed little.
Job Openings
- On the last business day of August, the number and rate of job openings increased to 9.6 million (+690,000) and 5.8 percent, respectively.
- Over the month, job openings increased in professional and business services (+509,000), finance and insurance (+96,000), state and local government education (+76,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (+59,000), and federal government (+31,000).
Hires
- In August, the number of hires changed little at 5.9 million and the rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent.
- The number of hires changed little in all industries.
Separations
- The number of total separations in August was little changed at 5.7 million, and the rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent. Over the month, the number of total separations increased in accommodation and food services (+105,000) but decreased in information (-41,000) and federal government (-8,000).
- In August, the number of quits changed little at 3.6 million and the rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent. The number of quits increased in accommodation and food services (+88,000); finance and insurance (+28,000); state and local government, excluding education (+21,000); and arts, entertainment, and recreation (+18,000). The number of quits decreased in information (-30,000).
- In August, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.7 million, and the rate held at 1.1 percent. The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-39,000), but increased in state and local government education (+27,000).
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. The quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
Job Quits by Sector in Thousands
Quits rose in Leisure and Hospitality, and Accommodation and Food Service. Quits generally declined elsewhere.
The number of job openings is very suspect for many reasons: Companies do not take down filled positions, survey responses are sporadic, companies are not really looking to hire but if the perfect candidate comes along they will, motivation reasons, and it costs northing to leave an opening in place.
There is no reason to have any faith in the number of job openings. However, the direction of the trends is likely accurate.
Minimum Wage for Fast Food Workers Jumps 30% to $20 Per Hour in California
On April 1, fast food workers in California get a huge boost in minima wages. Governor Gavin Newsom called it a big deal.
Yes, governor, this is very big deal. It will increase the cost of eating out everywhere.
The bill Newsom signed only applies to restaurants that have at least 60 locations nationwide — with an exception for restaurants that make and sell their own bread, like Panera Bread (what’s that exception all about?)
Nonetheless, the bill will force many small restaurants out of business or they will pony up too.
30 Percent Raise Coming Up!
For discussion please see Minimum Wage for Fast Food Workers Jumps 30% to $20 Per Hour in California
If McDonalds pays $20, why take $15.50 elsewhere?
The $4.50 hike from $15.50 to $20 is a massive 30 percent jump.
Expect prices at all restaurant to rise. Then think ahead. This extra money is certain to increase demands for all goods and services.
The number of quits will surge and so will the stress on small businesses who cannot afford a 30 percent hike in payroll costs. And don’t forget to factor in business-paid payroll taxes.
School re-opened. Stores started hioring for the holiday season. It happens every year. Why is i a surprise or some pointless Common Core equation?
JOLTS is complete garbage. Most of it is made up.
Wolfstreet has a good article on big tech hiring. I won’t speak for all job professions but I’ve been pinged more on Linked in over the past month than the prior 6 months combined for job opp and I’m not even looking.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/10/03/what-the-tech-social-media-layoff-queens-have-to-hire-again-trends-in-job-openings-hires-layoffs-discharges-voluntary-quits/
here is another one…
https://wraltechwire.com/2023/10/03/49-of-these-top-50-companies-are-hiring-in-triangle-nc-wake-it-jobs-climb/
The 20-Year Treasury bond is 5.127% as I type this…is anyone else having a bondgasm?
Not if you bought a month or year ago if so you are licking wounds and sitting on massive kisses
Losses
Hell if you bought a 20 year just yesterday you are down 2%. That’s almost 5 months of interest down the crapper.
Getting ready to nibble some more TLT. I don’t think anyone should be surprised if TLT breaks through $80 in the next week 10 days, once the jobs & CPI numbers are out.
FYI – the final Q3 reading for Fed GDPNow appears to be 4.9% which is absolutely gargantuan. Would love to see oil stay above $80 all winter & then start its advance next spring back towards $100 & beyond.
More inflation means more rate increases which means a greater chance of a Fed overshoot resulting in at least a moderate recession.
Recession or BUST!
Just can’t kill this Bidenomics economy. Bad for stocks and bonds.
Bidenomics is running the economy too hot. Too much demand, too many jobs, and too much profit. It’s ironic that a too hot economy is bad for the market. Lol.
Let’s get Trump in there so he can crash everything again.
If a republican wins I predict the deficit hawks will go oddly silent.
In that case, the best economic solution will be to cut taxes on billionaire campaign donors and spend billions on a border wall.
This is because the Laffer curve, and trickle down, have proven it works….as long as the FED keeps rates at ZIRP and social entitlement spending increases parabolically.
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Quote on Denninger comments a couple of days ago –
The United States is a corpse being devoured by maggots. The Republicans are cheering for the corpse, the Democrats are cheering for the maggots.
Good quote, I’m watching on CSPAN republican on republican cannibalism as the repubs try to oust McCarthy.
I am personally grateful for what Gaetz has accomplished.
McCarthy said he was going to deliver and he’ didn’t.
Vote him out and put someone new in there.
At the very minimum, Congress must get back to passing the 12 different spending bills. Their inability to do so over the last many years clearly shows they’re not doing their jobs.
Way to go Gaetz! Extremely pleased.
As Scott Sumner says, N-gDp is too high.
Amazon, Target and others have announced huge hiring numbers for the holiday season and that’s not expected for at least another month so I would expect next couple of months JOLTS report might even be higher. Oil climbing back above 90 which means mo inflation.
Interestingly, Fed minions are now barking about rate hikes in addition to higher longer. Got T-bills? Choo! Choo!
With respect to that, UPS sited a high probability of recession months back based on their internal stats.
I think they failed to account for all the businesses, like AMZN, that are displacing their services.
I also think the FED has a similar data problem, their sources are dated, so are their methods.
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“I also think the FED has a similar data problem, their sources are dated, so are their methods.”
Yes, they are living in the 1960s with 1960s economic playbooks. Those days are gone. I also don’t think they are paying attention to the demographics. Millions of boomers retire every year and they aren’t being replaced on the younger end. The oldest Millenials are now in their 40s and in 10 years they will be in their 50s. Talk about a geriatric labor force for America.
It’s Niagara Falls leaving the labor force and a garden hose replenishing it.
We have a labor shortage,
The Fed’s stunting growth to counter it.
NYC is in crisis, they have hundreds of thousands of laborers just in NYC alone, no idea what to do with them….
Yeah, let’s hike s’more, damned immigrants gotta go.
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Send them over to Amazon. They are hiring 250,000.
https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/workplace/amazon-hiring-seasonal-holiday-employees
We have a labor shortage because the UniParty is spending $2T in excess of revenue.
$2T/$5T = 40% extra spending
If you get rid of that ton of fluff, aggregate demand would crater, we’d enter into a massive recession, housing prices would drop dramatically making housing irrespective of rates vastly more affordable, and nearly all of those “open” jobs would go away.
Oh and like in 2009-2011’ish, you’d see some of the illegals self-deport.
Problem solved (granted lots of pain) but that’s the way it used to be done.
It absolutely amazes me how a person can cherry pick facts & data, while omitting other massive & relevant elephants in the room to create an entirely false narrative.
Well done, impressive, run for office!
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FY ’22 revenue was approximately $4.9T and the budget deficit was $1.38T. Through the 1st 11 months of FY ’23, revenues have been $3.971T.
From the same OFFICIAL Treasury source below, the same 11-month deficit for FY ’23 is $1.524T. And the treasury borrowed ~ $1.3T just in September. Do the math, you joke of a simpleton troll. Go away!
My 2/5 = 40% simple math will EASILY hold for FY ’23.
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/government-revenue/
45 years of unfunded tax cuts for the biggest campaign donors, compounded by interest, knucklehead.
And my points about what would happen are well within reasonable probability. I can’t imagine what would happen if Congress had the stones to say we’re going to cut the FY ’24 budget by 40%. It would be Armagedón.