Queen’s Speech Passes
Amendments Fail
SNP amendment that says “the house regrets the UK government’s intention to use the Immigration Bill to end freedom of movement within Europe”. The SNP’s amendment to the Queen’s speech was voted down by 310 votes to 64.
Labour Amendment voted down 311-293
Monday Debate on December 12 Elections
Johnson Writes Corbyn
Johnson’s Statement
“If this parliament is anything to go by, that delay could go on for a very long time because it looks as though our EU friends will respond to parliament’s request by having an extension, which I really don’t want at all.”
“The way to getBrexitdone is, I think, to be reasonable with parliament and say if they genuinely want more time to study this excellent deal, they can have it, but they have to agree to a general election on 12 December.”
““It’s time frankly that the opposition summoned up the nerve to submit themselves to the judgement of our collective boss, which is the people of the UK.”
Liberal Democrats Chime In
A second referendum has almost no chance and never did.
SNP Wants No Confidence Vote
Election Math
Trap Door?
That is pure nonsense. The trapdoor cannot be removed by the UK. Say an amendment passes requiring the next PM to not go for a WTO Brexit. The next government can easily pass new legislation allowing it.
Summation
Clock Ticking
The EU will announce its extension decision Friday. I suspect Johnson will accept or reject on Monday, most likely the former.
But If Johnson rejects, there will be three days to Brexit. And there would not be time to oust Johnson. He would refuse to resign.
If Johnson has any legal Ace in the Hole gambit that succeeds, there will be a No Deal Brexit on Thursday or Commons will reconsider the Withdrawal Agreement.
Johnson’s strategy will come down to the EU’s extension offer.
Conditions or a short extension window are certainly in play despite the talk otherwise.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“A lot of people seems to think that a long extension is bad for Johnson. “
It is bad. It could lead to Eurointelligence option 3. A shift to ask the EU for a customs union deal of some sort. All kinds of nonsense.
“Mish, he will only accept an extension offer on Monday if the motion for elections passes.”
This line of thought by@Yancey is interesting.
But I suggest that If the EU does what I expect, he will say accept the deal or accept elections. Their choice.
Six000, I believe the Benn act requires Johnson to accept any offer or present it to Commons for them to accept. Which they would
PM Johnson can reject an extension if it comes with conditions because the Benn bill requires him to accept a January 31, 2020 extension, but nothing else. The EU has already placed a condition on holding hearings on an extension until the withdrawal agreement was ratified, so I expect conditions to be placed on the extension request. There is no time limit placed on how long PM Johnson can take to evaluate a counter offer.
Noticed a subtle change today. Only one reason for it and it’s on purpose. Please read and see what it says to you.
Main road signs, until this week, said.
“FREIGHT TO EU PAPERS MAY CHANGE 1 NOV PLEASE CHECK”
Now……..
“FREIGHT TO EU PAPERS CHANGE 1 NOV PLEASE CHECK”
A lot of people seems to think that a long extension is bad for Johnson. In my view, he actually wants a January 31 extension because he is in a perfect place for an election right now.
The election offer today was not a message to Corbyn. It was a message to Macron, an excuse for France to allow the January extension because a UK election is coming. However, the French answered a few hours ago:
“If there’s a clear scenario that will change things, for example a ratification or elections – not just suggested but organised – then we can take decisions.”
It would be interesting to see if the EU is actually split on this or they are playing roles. I am inclined to think that the latter is true. Macron will get his moment as the tough guy and it will prevent the solution of the UK deadlock.
Johnson should reject the extension. Britain crashes out of the EU. Then Johnson should have no problem getting the Withdrawal Act passed. I didn’t know Johnson could accept or reject the extension.
Block clarified per Deep Purple suggestion.
I suspect Johnson will accept or reject on Monday, most likely the former.
But If Johnson rejects, there will be three days to Brexit. And there would not be time to oust Johnson. He would refuse to resign.
If Johnson has any legal Ace in the Hole gambit that succeeds, there will be a No Deal Brexit on Thursday or Commons will reconsider the Withdrawal Agreement.
Thanks.
*”The EU will announce its extension decision Friday
I suspect Johnson will accept or reject on Monday, most likely the former.
At that point, there will be three days to Brexit. There will not be time to oust Johnson. He would refuse to resign.”*
There is a mistake somewhere. If he accepts an extension, then there is more than three days. If he rejects it, then he breaks the law and MPs can take him down. This is not a win-win situation but a draw-draw situation. The only exception is if the EU comes to help him with a January 31 deadline.
If he rejects it on the 31st, there is no time to stop Brexit- it is done according the explicit language of Article 50. All that could happen in that regard would be the EU granting the extension over Johnson’s refusal of it, which violate the language of Article 50.
Now, of course, we all know the actual law doesn’t matter to the EU- it is only the outcome that matters, but then Johnson would be greatly strengthened politically by the sheer nakedness of this legal disregard.
As I have written over and over- Remainers have to bite the bullet if they are serious about stopping Brexit- they have to replace Johnson before the 31st, or they need to revoke Article 50. Half-measures are going to eventually fail, and I think that deadline is likely next week. It may well be too late.
I agree with the conclusion of your second comment. MPs would have to replace Johnson with Corbyn, a choice they would never make otherwise. This is the plan of Corbyn since the summer.
The dynamic is the same if a short extension comes.
I believe my statements are accurate but admittedly confusing
Will reword them
Latest theory from EU – offer a 2 stage extension!
Stage 1. Extension to end November (to satisfy Macron). If deal does not complete ALL stages of UK Parliament by mid November then Stage 2 applies.
Stage 2. Extension to end Jan 2020 (to satisfy other 26 Leaders).
Sounds good in principle but terrible in practice. No incentive for Remainers to pass the deal. Might as well go straight to Stage 2.
Initial indications that neither SNP nor Lib Dems will vote for December election. Their reason appears to be that they will never vote for anything Boris suggests!
Mish, he will only accept an extension offer on Mondy if the motion for elections passes. If it doesn’t, I predict he waits until the last moment and refuses the extension, and goes to court, but then Brexit happens on Thursday unless Parliament removes and replaces Johnson with someone who will accept the extension, or the EU abrogates their own laws to grant the extension over Johnson’s refusal. This really is head Johnson wins, tails Johnson wins. Elections can’t be put off forever, and the Remainers clearly won’t revoke Article 50 any time soon, so Johnson just has to wait for that election.
Labor said it would support only if hard brexit “off the table”. This is being transated as election will NOT pass. This means likely Johnson will NOT accept the extention with all legal wranglings to commence …
Tomorrow, the EU position will be clear. Please, make it stop!
If there is ANY way for the sneaky, lying, amoral scumbag remainers to delay and frustrate Brexit deal or not, the EU will be in communication and do whatever it takes to further that goal, Macron aside, he is not going to be the sole veto voting EU state out of 26. He might want to be, but alienating the rest of the EU is dangerous ground even if the alternative is internally dangerous for France. He is balancing sentiment in the EU against sentiment in France. And the blind, stupid, clueless EU is a loose cannon, they will shoot themselves in the feet if he allows them to. In their haste to punish Macron for a Brexit extension veto he knows they would be playing into the Le Pen hands.
One by one, the traitors reveal themselves. Whoever was complicit in overthrowing a democratic vote, will be remembered. And one day, hopefully elected out of office. But…since we all know it’s one gigantic, incestuous cabal…these traitors will land cushy, highly compensated jobs. It’s all rather infuriating, isn’t it?
Where is our friend avidremaoner