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Largest Yearly Advance in Producer Price Index in History Dating to 2010

The Producer Price Index for July shows another leap in inflation.

PPI Highlights

  • The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in July, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices rose 1.0 percent in June and 0.8 percent in May.
  • On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 7.8 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010. 

PPI Month-Over-Month 

Final Demand Services

  • The index for final demand services rose 1.1 percent in July, the largest one-month increase since data were first calculated in December 2009
  • Nearly half of the broad-based advance in July is attributable to margins for final demand trade services, which jumped 1.7 percent. Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.
  • Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services also moved higher, 0.6 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. 
  • About 20 percent of the July advance in prices for final demand services can be traced to margins for automobiles and automobile parts retailing, which climbed 11.2 percent
  • The indexes for airline passenger services; hospital outpatient care; machinery and equipment wholesaling; traveler accommodation services; and securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services also increased. 
  • Prices for portfolio management fell 1.8 percent. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling and for fuels and lubricants retailing also declined. 

Final Demand Goods

  • The index for final demand goods moved up 0.6 percent in July following a 1.2- percent jump in June. 
  • Leading the July advance in prices for final demand goods, the index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 1.0 percent. 
  • Prices for final demand energy rose 2.6 percent. 
  • The index for final demand foods decreased 2.1 percent. 
  • Among prices for final demand goods in July, the index for tobacco products increased 2.7 percent. 
  • Prices for gasoline; diesel fuel; gas fuels; consumer, institutional, and commercial plastic products; and eggs for fresh use also moved higher. 
  • The index for beef and veal fell 11.6 percent. Prices for residential electric power and for softwood lumber (not edge worked) also declined. 

Spotlight Energy

That is the same as the lead chart with energy added. The price of energy is up 33.4% from a year ago.

PPI Percentage Weights

Energy is 15.5% of the Goods PPI and 5.0% of the overall PPI.

Services are now leading the way, up 1.1% on the month, the largest increase ever.

CPI Jumps Another 0.5% in July, 5.4% From a Year Ago (No Change)

For discussion of the Consumer Price Index, please see CPI Jumps Another 0.5% in July, 5.4% From a Year Ago (No Change)

Meanwhile, Consumer Inflation Expectations Hit a New 8-Year High

“Inflation is Half Our Mandate”

The Fed called price hikes a “Welcome” Rise in Inflation

I wonder if the Fed still feels that way. 

Also note Fed Chair Powell’s slip in which he said “Inflation is Half Our Mandate”

The Fed got far more than it bargained for and the economy is overheating.

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6 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
“The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1% from June to July”
One month doesn’t make a year, but 12 of them at 1% a month, makes double digit annual inflation.
tbergerson
tbergerson
4 years ago
Umm…  2010?  So 11 years?  I see Fred starts there.  But I would guess it might have been higher as recently as 2007 or 2008 as commodities ramped higher and CL approached $150/bbl.  Good luck finding it though at the BLS site.
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
4 years ago
“Lowering your standard of living is half our mandate.”
ed_retired_actuary
ed_retired_actuary
4 years ago
Comparable in magnitude, but not yet duration, to most of the late ’60s and 70s, when inflation was the top of mind US economic concern.  Likelihood that any president will appoint another Paul Volker with the fortitude to bring inflation under control for a generation:  slim.
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
4 years ago
This is the “end-game” for the post-Bretton Woods monetary system. The 50th anniversary of the “temporary” closure of the US Treasury’s Gold Window is 3 days from now.
Volcker’s Fed managed to stave off hyper-inflation with massive interest rate increases that are completely out-of-the-question, given today’s extreme over-indebtedness at every level.
Prepare yourself accordingly.
ed_retired_actuary
ed_retired_actuary
4 years ago
Reply to  Bam_Man
In the 1980s, the Bank of Canada( BOC) had the gumption to stand up to parliament and refuse to monetize large Canadian federal govt. deficits, which had led to high Canadian inflation and interest rates.  Ultimately the BOC won this battle, resulting in reasonably balanced federal govt. deficits, low inflation and low interest rates.  So not impossible,. but I agree much more difficult in today’s very highly indebted circumstances.

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