Let This Valuable Lesson Sink In
https://twitter.com/BTC_Macro/status/1149816924743729153
Now tell me again how anyone has an excuse to be poor?
Even if someone perfectly timed the bottom, just how many poor people had money to buy Bitcoins?
And if they had “balls” to borrow the money to speculate on Bitcoin, they would now only need the “balls” to HODL until it hit $1,000,000 or so.
Macro’s Tweet is the epitome of Bitcoin arrogance.
Can’t Take the Heat
https://twitter.com/BTC_Macro/status/1150076468895993856
Bitcoin Macro could not take the heat. So he banned 100 people or so for disagreeing with him.
Not to worry, he is going to do a separate post about it.
Gee, I can hardly wait. Yet, I can predict it in advance.
What Bitcoin Macro Will Say
To the Moon Baby
Bitcoin is going to $1,000,000 if not $20,000,000 or perhaps even infinity.
Math Lesson
A move from $3,333 to $100,000 would multiply the value by 30 times. So if one plunked down $1,000 they did not have, at an average price of $3,333 they would then have about $30,000. That not enough to retire on. It’s not even much of a down payment on a house.
So we need either bigger assumptions or a bigger initial investment by the poor, of money they do not have and should not be speculating with. Nonetheless, let’s put a target of $1,000,000 on Bitcoin.
A move from $3,333 to $1,000,000 would multiply the value by 300 times. So if one plunked down $1,000 they did not have, at an average price of $3,333 they would then have about $300,000.
Why stop there? Assume a $20,000,000 target and someone would have $6,000,000.
One Small Catch
All it takes is “guts” to not put food on the table, plop money on Bitcoin, then become a “true believer”.
Bitcoin then has to get to $1,000,000 then to $20,000,000.
There’s only one catch. One needs to be correct and wait until they are, no matter how long it takes.
That’s all.
Highly Unlikely to Get That High
Ignore all the hype on hash rates or whatever. The moment Bitcoin threatens either central banks or governments it will be shut down.
And it’s easy to do.
I discussed that setup in Trump Slams Bitcoin in Tweet Storm: What Does It Mean? Anything?
Curiously, just two days before Trump’s crypto Tweet storm, I mentioned everything Trump stated on live national radio.
I also stated the charges would mostly be fictional, but it would not matter.
I rather doubt the threat is imminent but Trump reinforced my expectation as to what is highly likely to happen if Bitcoin gets high enough.
Bear in mind, Bitcoin is a free market construct. I do not object to it.
But telling the poor “there’s no excuse to be poor” and they won’t be if they have “balls” is more than a bit galling.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I taught myself how to count cards. I thought I’d be able to make big bucks at the tables. After all, a blackjack will pay out 3:2!
Later after losing a few hundred dollars (and realizing that everyone at the table was also counting and sitting out the cold shoes), I realized the key to winning at the casino is to buy casino stocks. No where near the thrill in the short term, but in the long run a lot of fun.
One thing will really derail Bitcoin: Libra. And it will have the government’s blessing and control.
It seems like any negative Tesla posts or bitcoin posts by Mish bring out this angry mob of perma bull Tesla or perma bull btc trolls to Mish’s blog. They only seem to show up on tesla or btc posts.
Being real here though… Our future is dependent on how we choose to use cryptocurrencies. If you know economics, you know that the people have more power than they realize in deciding which currencies will become the norm. If we choose to adopt cryptocurrencies that are controlled by a central authority, we will be also giving that authority control of our money. If we choose uncontrolled, decentralized currencies, we might manage to protect our financial freedoms. Blockchain is changing the world. How it does this, is up to us.
Good, the dollar is no longer backed, so destined to crash. Whale Oil should be a great investment. Maybe keep that on the dl though.
You guys are so right ! Electricity is dangerous and crazy ! You can’t even see it… only a fool would trust that techno crap ! I’ll be sticking with good old fashioned whale oil. Now there’s a product we can all agree will last forever !
One presumes “balls” means some kind of prescient judgment. For an asset where a price discovery methodology (other than some kind of ‘greater fool’ construct) is all but absent really falls back on the real intelligence of the person commenting. Please, if he can, have him post a spreadsheet or something where we can model some kind of intrinsic value for this asset class. Good luck too.
“People had 4 months to buy Bitcoin in the $3k range.
Let that sink in!”
So? Hind sight is 20/20.
Back in the mid 2000’s decade, someone wrote a book called “Next stop Dow 21,000.” It stopped at 14,000 and fell to 6,500, a drop of over 50% from there.
What if some day a major government or more suddenly ban bitcoin.
Let that sink in.
No one knows if or when that might happen.
ALL governments would have to ban Bitcoin. China makes too much money off it to let that happen. Even then, there would likely be people still mining ilegally just to keep it going. This is the first digital entity that truly has a mind of it’s own. It is not going anywhere in our liftimes.
L E T T H A T S I N K I N . . . . .
Interestingly, when a government had spoke of banning bit coin, the price has taken a dump.
Not one government is on the gold standard so all governments could decide to ban bitcoin.
Let that sink in.
Wonder what his advice was when it was at $19k?
I see a theme… Rich person tells everyone how to get rich, but everyone gets offended instead of implementing said advice. I too am poor, but you are all way too sensitive. You can get offended, or get motivated. Guess which one makes you rich
Said “advice” never, ever, boil down to anything other than “buy something useless from me at too high a price.” Which never “makes” you rich (although, since everything in financialized dystopias and Casinos; in order to keep the indoctrinati’s hope, faith and illusions up; are covered in a thick veneer of pure random, taking the “advice” doesn’t strictly guarantee you won’t get rich, either.)
Dude’s right though. There’s no buying anything at too high a price here. Bitcoin was around 3,000 for a couple months. If you are smart, you KNEW it would grow.
If you are smart, you know the expected price change of anything priced by competitive bidding; differs from the expected price change of anything else priced by competitive bidding, only according to differences in expected price variances (and higher moments, if you want to be really nitpicky.)
Competitive bidding, by definition, produces random price moves. And noone even remotely smart, runs around believing he can successfully pick random numbers. That’s a dumb person’s game. Again, by definition.
It’s not the message so much as the delivery. I’m more sympathetic to crypto than Mish, but there’s no denying this guy’s trolling for clicks. He sounds very similar to a typical ivory tower economist or smug Goldmanite.
If the US/global economy takes the turn that I expect, mocking the non-rich (anyone who needs to work for a living?) is going to be a bad look.
Everyone is acting like this dude is what’s wrong with this country, but hey, free speech. The comments are a better example of what’s wrong with this country. We coddle emotions too much. Offending people is not illegal. You would do well to be less sensitive.
You are right Tengen, but why would he care how he looks? Is he running for office? Seems all the poor are just complaining about being offended, but if you are poor, maybe you should spend more emotional energy on your financials, instead rich people’s comments.
Ooh someone else who doesnt understand what leverage is, and probably cant read a chart.
You act like Bitcoin is strictly a United States matter. They [United States Legislature] can ban all they like; Bitcoin is global, and superior technology will always prevail.
Unfortunately this Bitcoin Macro guy is emblematic of what American culture has become. Be a jerk to get views, complain about being called out for it, then block anyone who disagrees with you. There are way too many people like this running around.
If the US is to have a non-dystopian future, we need to learn the basics of human empathy quickly. Taunting people who have less money than you (at the moment anyway, these “markets” are volatile) should be strongly discouraged. Maybe we should go full throttle and make fun of the sick or very elderly while we’re at it?
By the same logic, if the FED could print a quadrillion $, everybody could become a millionaire, and nobody would have to work. Everybody could buy an island in the Caribbean (I heard one will be for sale). Blame the FED to enrich only the select ones.
Sounds pretty similar to people hawking gold and silver, or real estate flipping, or whatever.
If I owned bit coin, I’d say the same thing. If he can convince enough folks he is right, demand will go up and his prophecy will be fulfilled. By the way, I understand the most valuable tulips are the black ones.
The “moral” is that everyone can, and should be, a successful speculator in whatever the “get-rich-quick-vehicle-du-jour” happens to be. A sure sign of a society in terminal decline.
Yep, the idea of regular people working a job that may actually improve the lives of others is scoffed at, but being a speculator or a day trader is glorified. Ridiculous.
The average garbageman or janitor has done far more good in the world than speculators who live off Fed largesse. Now that we live in the era of stock buybacks, we can’t even pretend that investors boost corporate employment.