Kudos to Pitfall Harry who accurately predicted the denial and collapse of buffoonery.
Trump Offers “Substantial” Tariff Cuts to China, Waving White Flag of Surrender
In my previous post, I noted Trump Offers “Substantial” Tariff Cuts to China, Waving White Flag of Surrender
Without China offering anything, Trump backs down.
Markets Cheer the White Flag
Today, the markets are cheering the white flag and the new Mr. Nice Guy.
They cheered yesterday when Trump backed off the idiotic idea of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
There were similar reports by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal.
Bloomberg reports Trump Floats ‘Substantial’ China Tariff Cuts in Trade Deal
President Donald Trump said he plans to be “very nice” to China in any trade talks and that tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal, a sign he may be backing down from his tough stance on Beijing amid market volatility.
“It will come down substantially but it won’t be zero,” Trump said Tuesday in Washington, following earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the standoff was unsustainable. Trump added that “we’re going to be very nice and they’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens.”
Trump also said he didn’t see the need to “play hardball” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and that during discussions he wouldn’t raise Covid-19 — an issue that is politically sensitive in Beijing. The White House recently launched a website that suggested the virus came from a lab in China, irking the nation’s diplomats.
I commented …
The cult will of course insist this is 8D chess, that tariffs will still be used to balance the budget and eliminate the need for an IRS, that Trump will make shoe and underwear manufacturing great again, and all of the other contradictory and nonsensical economic theories of the president.
Fake News
In an addendum. I posted ….
Fake News
A reader called this fake news.
That’s correct in this respect: No one can possibly believe a proven liar who does not honor his own deals.
So what is Trump really offering? Who knows because it’s likely to change tomorrow. [In retrospect, it was hours]
Nonetheless, it’s white flag by Trump. He is trying to find a way to save face. After bragging he held all the cards, Trump clearly capitulated out of the blue.
Universal Strawman
The Wall Street Journal now reports Bessent Says Trump Hasn’t Made Unilateral Offer to Cut Tariffs on China
President Trump hasn’t offered to take down U.S. tariffs on China on a unilateral basis, Bloomberg News quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as saying.
The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, earlier reported that the Trump administration is considering slashing its steep tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to de-escalate tensions with Beijing.
President Trump hasn’t made a final determination, the people said, adding that the discussions remain fluid and several options are on the table. One administration official said Trump wouldn’t act unilaterally and would need to see some action from Beijing to lower tariffs, the Journal reported.
No one ever said Trump offered to take tariffs down on a “unilateral basis”.
Let’s review one more time precisely what the WSJ said, repeated from above and my article.
President Donald Trump said he plans to be “very nice” to China in any trade talks and that tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal, a sign he may be backing down from his tough stance on Beijing amid market volatility.
“It will come down substantially but it won’t be zero,” Trump said Tuesday in Washington, following earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the standoff was unsustainable. Trump added that “we’re going to be very nice and they’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens.”
Trump also said he didn’t see the need to “play hardball” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and that during discussions he wouldn’t raise Covid-19 — an issue that is politically sensitive in Beijing. The White House recently launched a website that suggested the virus came from a lab in China, irking the nation’s diplomats.
Bessent Declined to Comment on the “Nice Guy” WSJ Story
Bessent was asked to comment on the WSJ article and declined to do so. If the “Nice Guy” WSJ story was false, he would have said so.
Instead, Bessent created a strawman over the word “unilateral” after Trump was correctly portrayed as waving the withe flag.
Nothing has changed because no one can believe a thing Trump says anyway. Yet, this still leaves Trump in the same place the day started, desperate for a call from Xi, but no reason for Xi to bother, confirmed by the walk-back.
Fortunately for Trump, there is still a 90 day-delay on reciprocal tariffs, with the definition of reciprocal that has literally nothing to do with tariffs.
This the cult says is 8D chess.
A Trade War Debate, Who Has the Cards, the US or China?
On April 15, 2025, I asked A Trade War Debate, Who Has the Cards, the US or China?
As a practical matter, for now, and for totally different reasons than Alexander lists, I think Xi is in a position to wait out Trump.
Trump has to worry about midterm elections. Xi does not. Trump also has to worry about agricultural retaliations, rare earth elements, and inflation. Xi does not.
China controls 80% of the supply of rare earth minerals needed for military guidance systems, cell phones, wind turbines, car engines, and computer chips.
Moreover, Trump treated Canada and Mexico worse than China until the recent, and massive escalation.
Instead of seeking cooperation from allies to go after China, Trump went after the whole world! This was a seriously stupid mistake, even if one believes in tariffs.
Longer term, I side with Pettis. But the key questions are still unanswered, when and how? And Trump does not even understand the problem.
China should wait for Trump’s call. That offer will only improve.
“Today, the markets are cheering the white flag and the new Mr. Nice Guy.
They cheered yesterday when Trump backed off the idiotic idea of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.”
Can you imagine what would happen if Trump disappeared? The markets would go wild!
The fundamental problem with Trump & MAGA cult is they become fixated on one thing and can’t break free of that idea. The TDS II is the perfect illustration but clearly tariff nonsense isn’t having the intended outcome so why not pivot to something else?
1. Reduce manufacturing corporate tax rate to zero
2. As an added bonus, eliminate FICA for manufacturing employees. Yeah that will hurt social security and medicare but I don’t care, these programs need to go away.
3. Eliminate FICA altogether and find new ways to fund SS & Medicare if it must hang around.
4. Warren Buffet had a great idea in 2003 about Import Certificates that could be traded on the open market.
I could go on but why bother when Trump & MAGA cult are stuck in the tariff rut.
“…become fixated on one thing and can’t break free of that idea…”
This phenomenon is quite common amongst the vast majority of people. It’s not exclusive to MAGA.
Most people identify with their ideology. When a person is infected with this sickness of the mind, no amount of contrary evidence will convince them they are wrong. The ego is in the driver’s seat, and to be wrong is death to the ego (i.e. the self).
It sounds like Trump & Bessent don’t work together.
Or even know each other.
China, and the rest of the world, should wait until Trump grovels and then maybe start talking about access for specific types of goods/services which is where this should have been from day freakin one. These aren’t even children in charge, they are toddlers.
and it continues
Karoline Leavitt now says there will be “no unilateral reduction in tariffs against China,” reversing course after Trump admitted the tariffs were too high and reports surfaced they would be lowered.
She’s easy on the eye, but sadly the lights are on but there is no one home.
The who holds the cards nonsense implies that there will be a winner and a loser when in fact right now, both sides are losing. There is a total media block out about what is happening in China. If you think there is only fear on one side, you are delusional. Xi can talk tough, but I do not think the businessman in China want this to go on.
And what Trump is trying to do is reduce the trade deficit with China. If two, three years from now, that deficit is higher, criticizing Trump is fair game. I will say the same is true of the budget deficit.
I am offended when someone says I am beholden to Trump. I would consider voting Democrat if they had a plan, any plan, to reduce these deficits.
Everyone is reacting to the market moves and I am not. I am still short, but I thought the short term moves were more likely to be the market going up versus down. If there is a trade deal or if Powell lowers rates, both of which I expect to happen, then the market rallies, but long term, the market is overpriced, and that is true no matter who is president.
Right now I cannot think of an easier and more fun job than being on the Chinese negotiating team. You just watch the other side make an own goal after own goal, laugh, perhaps grab the occasional cocktail and go to bed early secure in the knowledge that when you wake up, your negotiating position will be a bit stronger once again.
The only question is what stunt Trump will pull and at who’s expense, to draw attention elsewhere.
China “saving face”. They can start by explaining their history from the mid-1930s to the late 1960s.
I have to admit it’s fun to watch the headline ambulance chasers contort their brains on a daily basis trying to “add value”.
History does not repeat itself it rhymes Hitler’s Terrible TariffsBy seeking to “liberate” Germans from a globalized world order, the Nazi government sent the national economy careening backwards. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/04/nazi-germany-tariffs-trade/682521/?gift=j9r7avb6p-KY8zdjhsiSZ5SRVYhols_ScRpkh12-5LE
Dawes Plan before that. Someone who came later didn’t care for it.
=again, my thoughts
Mr trump is elected president. USA is democracy more or less, so Trump does what he wants to do.
so it is up to USA ppl decide what next on congress elections, or next president elections, vote for same or vote for change.
======
BUT HOW IS ANYBODY IN RIGHT MIND can even think that some big shot businessman would consider to invest in USA market in current situation???
I think Mr trump even himself does not know what he is gonna to do in 1 week.
alx
He knows what he has to do and what he will do.
Everybody knows what he will do.
Difficult thing. Very difficult thing to do.
You think Liberation Day might have worked out better had Jerome Powell been involved instead of whizzed on by the President after the fact? It’s clear that the tariff grenade was partially about getting interest rates down for debt rollover purposes and throwing a wrench in the China trade gears.
=ay might have worked out better had Jerome Powell be
buddy, USA gov runs 2+trln year deficit, and need to re-finance what 10 trln for 2 next years?
if Powell reduced rates, RATES ACTUALLY would go up, cause nobody wants to finance USA debt for 3 or 2 %, so investors would sell USA bonds
see?
You think Liberation Day might have worked out better had Jerome Powell been involved instead of whizzed on by the President after the fact? It’s clear that the tariff grenade was partially about getting interest rates down for debt rollover purposes and throwing a wrench in the China trade gears.
If team Trump never says one specific thing but always mutters conflicting ideas that cannot be reconciled, they can choose the statement that best matches the outcome and claim victory, and his cult members won’t ever be able to figure out how he was disingenuous the whole time. Anyone who has seen their dog eat grass until they throw it all up knows how this story goes.
And I thought I was the only one who was on to Trumps game.
What a stooge. What made anyone think that this would have ended any other way? The Stooge just wants to see himself on TV. To this end he is succeeding. Governance of America is now a reality show with real consequences.
Just buy the dips and sell the rips. Trying to understand and predict Trump is an exercise in frustration.
I’m reminded we have to pace ourselves Grasshoper. For Trump will be like a DAILY ratings driven gameshow alternating b/tn Good Cop and Bad Cop to drive the ratings. he lives for transactional events b/e he wrongly acts like busy w/ transactional neuroticism is good. [As opposed to Buffet who lets stories develop and ripen at the proper time.]
Attention is the currency. As it is with Hegseth. And with a fair amount of Musk’s aura (in terms of other-worldly market valuations, despite all the broken promises and so on).
That’s why there are no durable policies in this administration: that takes too much work (especially for these characters straight from TV central casting). It is so much easier to stage something, as it is easier to commit fraud, to invent a “reality,” rather than carry out a commitment and pay the true costs of that.
I think this is the deep down Achllles heel that will make the Trump phenomenon largely transitory, or transitional as when Stalin’s death led to succession struggles and the gradual decline of that regime.
God! I better go buy some more gold…
A bigger walk back coming? The markets are completing a 16 April 6/15/15 hour :: x/2.5x/2.5x final valuation lower high( … which have not exceeded the 9 April high of the 7 April 3/6/6 day 13 day 4th fractal)… the final trading day … the final 9-10 trading hours (QQQ) may be a bit extended …
Circuit Breaker halts are triggered by a large decline in the S&P 500 Index. There are three levels:
Level 1: 7% decline, halts for 15 minutes.
Level 2: 13% decline, halts for 15 minutes.
Level 3: 20% decline, halts for the remainder of the day.
Dow to 4000 woohoo
6666
Per Mandelbrot (originator of fractal geometry) in ‘The Misbehavior of Markets,’ when markets go fractal, they are wild, jagged in compressed ways and fundamentally unpredictable. I see this situation as more the product of a dithering clown, in way over his head, but not as dangerous as he pretends to be (which is his schtick).
Trump is a pretty bad negotiator. And he certainly has no clue how to deal with a country like China. With his negotiating incompetence, he has managed to impulsively maneuver himself into a no-win situation. It’s time for some adults to take over, but are there any adults in the Trump administration?
None. Sadly. Surprised you even ask.
There may be one hiding somewhere. You never know.
My filing bot put that in the “Effective Use of Rhetoric” cubbyhole
he has no clue how to deal w/ any country
he is middle of road NY real estate hustler.
Interesting article from CNN – https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-can-t-make-up-his-mind-about-why-he-s-doing-tariffs/ar-AA1DrFSK?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=7c4be5b90a064e38f60d25fa69ccd327&ei=62
I’ve heard it claimed, he figured out cashing in on the reporting loophole, for flight capital in a shell company to buy luxury real estate (NYC and south Florida are big). Then the buyer (rather, the hidden beneficial owner of the named “buyer” entity) can borrow against it, free cash inside the USA, squeaky-cleaned in the legit banking system. No need for anyone to even live in the unit. He coincidentally just cancelled the Treasury Dept. reporting requirement for identities of beneficial owners: handed himself another mountain of gains. Or rather, whatever beard entities he and his family use.
I have done nothing but say over and over Trump is a nothingburger. His past is full of examples of bad this and bad that. His niece detailed all the things wrong with Donald, including stealing all his dying brothers money. Anything that he does do that ends up working were never his idea. And the worst of it is, he has 3.5 years to finally decide that this is his last chance to make himself king and turn America into a “fallen Rome.” All thats left is for my mom and three hard core friends to realize this is the biggest “nothing there” in history.
If they haven’t realized it yet, what could Trump POSSIBLY do to convince them? Would it be personal, like eminent domain taking their land for a road?
Hitler is overused, but Trump will die someday, and since there is no number 2 allowed in Trumpville, his fans will wander the countryside looking for someone to tell them what to do, as in 1945 Germany.
Yes! His ego prevents there being any succession. Reminds me particularly of Stalin. Everybody was scared out of their minds, even as he slowly died, as in Beria switching from fawning obsequiously over his semi-awakening body, to criticizing him viciously when it seemed he was at last drifting off for good, and back again a few times.
Since we are stuck with trump, the best advice is to totally ignore what he says and watch what he does (even though there are no true convictions).
I totally agree. I have a relative like that – drinks a lot – I ignore what is said and watch what is done.
I do think wrt to Trump there is one true conviction that stands out – “I want what I want”