Today’s action is different. And different is good.
Since March, gold has struggled with rising oil prices, rising bond yields or rising rate hike expectatons.
But here we are with the 30-year long bond on the verge of a major breakout, and rate hike expectations rising, yet the price of gold and silver are up anyway.
30-year Long Bond vs Gold
CME October 2026 Rate Hike Expectations
Unfortunately, I do not have a chart of rate hike expections over time.
However, since March, rate hike expectations have been rising. And generally that’s not good for gold unless the market perceives the Fed is increasingly behind the curve.
The sobering fact is the market thinks there is an 84 percent chance of at least one hike by the election.
There’s a 38.9 percent chance of multiple hikes.
Rising rate hike expectations are what’s really been troubling gold. Since July, gold hasn’t done much, but it has ignored those expectations.
Different Is Good
Technically Speaking
Technically speaking, gold needs to decisively clear 4300 to break the downtrend.
So while different is good, we do not yet have technical confirmation.
Fundamentally speaking, we have increasing deficits, rising inflation, and a stable reaction to expected rate hikes.
As I have pointed out numerous times, and contrary to popular belief, gold is not an inflation hedge. Gold fell from $800 to $250 with inflation every step of the way.
Rather, gold is a measure of faith in central banks that everything is under control.
Gold does worst when faith in central banks is the highest. Greenspan’s great moderation is the best example. Greenspan was considered the great “Maestro” who could do no wrong.
That theory crashed to earth in the DotCom bust. We have now had 3 major economic bubbles in 20 years.
You always say gold is not an inflation hedge, and certainly from 1980 to 2000 that was true, but I don’t think one example proves the rule. If you have a relatively stable quantity of gold and an increasing supply of dollars, you would logically expect the price to go up. So maybe there were other factors at work during that time period. Eventually the price did break out. It just took a while.
Jon
6 hours ago
When all of those are rising, its and indication that lots of very wealthy and powerful folks are anticipating impending doom. Stocks and real estate to crash. Gold and treasuries to explode. Mass bankruptcy and unemployment. Final wipe out of the middle class. Maybe the reason Trump started bombing Iran again. Let’s his family get back in at the bottom from a strong position. MAGA!
GAZ
9 hours ago
Stardate 2036:
Human #1 ” I’ll trade you my 1oz gold coin for your can of SpaghettiOs.”
Human#2 “No way! This is my last can!”
Human#1 shoots Human#2 in the face and takes can of SpaghettiOs from Human#2.
That might happen, but I think most of those few of us who have some idea of history and of what we may be facing, hope that things won’t get quite as bad as that.
Hopefully there will be martial law. Remember that in the great 1919-23 inflation in Germany, Germany was a defeated country, and had no army with the confidence to step in. In Latin America, inflations are sometimes stopped and order restored by an army takeover, but I think it only happens after a nod from the U.S. Embassy. The officers of those armed forces have all been trained to some degree by American training colleges, and they are in awe of the Yankees and won’t move without their approval. So inflation can get pretty bad in a Latin American country before the army intervenes. We may hope that the U.S. Army itself won’t be quite so timid.
I think people who have thought about it at all expect to trade their ounce of gold for a large amount of whatever scrip is being used AFTER the inflation has been stopped. Remember that Dr. Schacht in Germany did not restore the use of gold coinage. He introduced a new scrip, but promised that he wouldn’t inflate it out of existence, and kept his promise.
For buying groceries during a crisis, you would need silver or copper coins. During my time as a (small-time) bullion dealer in Australia in the 1980s, I sold several bags of used silver currency to customers, I think from memory Europeans who had some family recollection of the great inflations of the early twentieth century. There was a coin dealer who would sell these coins, of no great numismatic value, and ship them to you through the post. Our Post Office being what it was, one of the bags once didn’t make it intact, but to their credit, they were very apologetic about it, and the customer didn’t make a fuss: he weighed the coins and said that it looked as if they were all there. He was just happy to have his insurance against famine.
Jeff Larry
9 hours ago
This is a good article, the kind we rarely see form Mish these days….
Ian Thomson
12 hours ago
I think you can ignore all the talk of Fed Rate hikes. Congress is continuing to run up the debt, now approaching 39-40 Trillion, with debt payments now exceeding the Dept of Defense’s budget….and US Social Security is still unfunded post 2032. Warsh will just print money.
i’m old enough to remember when a 100USD benjamin was baller money. now it’s piker money barely enough to do much of anything or purchase much of anything quality. i keep my billion dollar zimbabwe note in my wallet. i love walking around with a billion.
i lived most of my life in cities. no need for all that fancy stuff like autos. i walk to do my shopping and errands like doctors etc. we all have rich world problems. i’ve found the immigrant hoods the best as i am reminded daily by my neighbors of what real problems can be like……..
I got bodywork done at a place that had massive pot holes in the parking lot and no AC while I waited for an hour. Total bill for my Infiniti was $160 compared to $500+ at other places. Great work and looks like new.
The country people have harder lives, but I think they will be the ones with the best chances of survival when the bad times come. My father, who was a young working man in Australia during the 1929 Depression, said that it didn’t make much difference to him. He still had to do the same hard work. It was the people who had no work to do because the system had broken down who really suffered. And the government managed to keep them from ever finding out that it was the inflation of the previous ten years or so that had caused their misery.
This time won’t be exactly the same as last time. The government will take steps to keep what they are most afraid of from happening. That MAY make it worse for ordinary people.
There are more unused resources in the country. In the big cities, the only unused resource will be the people, and as Ayn Rand said somewhere, the government WILL find a way of using them.
Remember that saying (I don’t know who originated it) that if something cannot continue, it won’t. Many countries use tiny units of account, even the Japanese, but the tiny units of account that are still in use are not continuously getting even more microscopic. The rulers of those countries learn their lesson eventually.
Ian Thomson
12 hours ago
Let See…The growth in M2 US Money supply is 6.9% compounded annually since 1996. I am an old fan of Milton Friedman who felt it was a measure of REAL inflation.
And it you adjust all US Treasury nominal bond yields by subtracting 6.9%, they all have negative real yields, and are essentially rocket fuel for gold prices.
What goes undiscussed by most pundits, is the fact that all CPI/PCE inflation measures are designed to understate inflation. Debt is not defaulted, but debt owners are paid off in full with dollars that have lost their purchasing power.
SavyinDallas
18 hours ago
Good time to buy gold? I agree. What about silver?
Considering that the solar industry consumes so much silver and most of our new power generation comes from this source it makes sense as both an industrial and buying power preservation investment.
Also, oil supply is constrained and becoming unreliable for much of the global economy, it makes sense to invest in a bit of silver physical.
IMO the highest quality silver and gold mining stocks provide both exposure and liquidity (plus modest dividends).
The US needs to import 80% of its Silver Industrial needs…China controls 60% of the World’s Silver needs & they just stopped exporting Silver. In the 1H, the number one US export was $55B in Precious metals.
Soon our vaults of Silver will become extremely scarce. AI, Tech, Military & Space
All need a tremendous amount of Silver.
Load up on US silver mining companies
We’re are looking at 20-50 baggers in the years to come…
2 Saudi ships have already been attacked and disabled in the Red Sea. If the Houthis close the Red Sea’s southern passage, it will be a true FAFO moment for this administration.
Not too long ago, we, in the person of the Saudis with American technical support, were using famine and cholera against the Yemenis. They didn’t manage to close the Red Sea then. What makes you think they will be able to do so now?
yippee
21 hours ago
the dow/gold ratio is the greatest long term chart to see over the past century. in the 21st century now over 26 years old gold has outperformed stocks by a factor of around 4x. no 1099s, no divorce attorneys,,,,, and no counter party risk when one owns gold.
I doubt if the Fed raises rates at all this year. They know full well that the stock markets are on the edge, and any rate increases can tip it over into a serious bear-market and they will be forced to cut rates multiple times then.
More likely they will come up with some lame excuses why they “cannot raise it this time but could *possibly* raise it the next time, blah blah blah…”
During the 1930s deflation, gold price in dollars was moved from $20.67 to $35 an ounce. But though it was fixed, a gold stock like Homestake Mining demostrated how good it is to mine/hold gold during deflation.
Stu
22 hours ago
So is there even a need to look at Gold, over 100 Years for example. Don’t you only need to look at Gold since 1971 , or over the last 55 Years. Broken down over these few decades, it clearly shows a pattern of behavior. This has kept up, and will imo.
3/71 = Buy $38.80 (around all time high)
3/75 = Buy $177,75
3/81 = Sell $514.25
4/91 = Buy $363.00
3/96 = Buy $396.70
3/2001 = Buy $259.05
3/2011 = Sell $1,431.00
I call them Gold Bugs, and claim they a very wealthy party represented by a very decent amount of Professional Investors. They cobbled together around 1970, or they’re about, I would guess.
They drive the prices higher, when they are getting ready to unload. This is what was bought to sit on and do it again . I do believe this is actually an orchestrated and spectacular event. Take early 1980’s and you will see there was very “aggressive Market Speculation” prior to the rise up to $850.00. Before the final price which was much lower.
This aggression has gotten far worse, as the Media is involved, as are other means of getting out the faulty message “Now is the time to buy” with all sorts of data thrown about, and use of past results. They sound good, but are clearly manipulated imo.
They have been calling out Buy for many, many Months now, and some profit has been taken for sure. It’s a shell game, but done with safe guards in place, and a lot of power involved in making it all come together.
Just my 2 cents over many years of reviewing it, and realizing unfortunately, that I cannot afford to partake. This is for the wealthy to make money and the not so wealthy to have to part with theres chasing a Dream imho. Getting stuck holding is where much is lost, eventually, and much is rebought, to do so all over again.
AussiePete
23 hours ago
Asset manager Bert Dohman tells Kitco the story of how in 1980 he went back through 350 years of gold price data to predict that they were at the cusp of a 20 year bear market, to be followed by a 31 year bull market….
OK, there is one thing you can do — own farmland or property in the midwest and keep them as far away from society as possible. And also, take Scott Adams’ advice from February 22, 2023.
Why would anybody take the advice of that abject idiot?
Waldo
1 day ago
If gold has bottomed it’s because Warsh won’t hike. I doubt he will. Inflation is good for corporate profits (none of the idiots on Wall Street care about inflation adjusted earnings) and we have quite a bit of debt to inflate away. Fed chairs love bubbles.
Warsh will hold rates and still claim hawk status by slightly reducing the fed’s balance sheet.
Augustine
1 day ago
A low probability reading that I have is that that peak coinciding with the bottom in treasuries was a failed fifth. If so, gold will head down to about $3700, so I’m watching anxiously as it toys with going below $4000.
yeah the other scenario is that gold has one last bloodbath test in front down to the mid 3k range. That’s why I am not going all in just yet. But I agree that if gold can get above the $4300 level Mish points out, that would be a very positive sign that the lows are behind us. Fingers crossed here.
It’s been hanging onto $4,100 as a bench mark for quite a bit now. I anticipate it falling in a big, buy back, kind of chunk. Holders will get clobbered if I’m right. Which is why I don’t play with Gold, but do admire its grift, seeing as how it truly is just a speculative piece of rock now…
It’s not speculative. It and silver are the only kinds of money that do not depend on someone’s good faith, that have no “counterparty.” Why do you think the Bank of China is buying the stuff?
Quatloo
1 day ago
Great article, lots to think about here!
Mike R
1 day ago
I dipped my toe back in with some GDX yesterday. Will pile on more if the $4300 /GC futures line is broached.
I rode the roller coaster up through late January and took a lot off the table then…unfortunately not enough and had to weather the last 8 months. Signs are that this could be the turning point, but I was beat up enough that I will stay unleveraged this time.
If history rhymes, this could be the similar scenario as witnessed in the mid 70s with Gold and Silver (which happened before my time, but my Grandpa and Dad went through it). That was also a painful correction but if you didn’t get shaken off the bull, you got handsomely rewarded. I hate to wish that on us again but with the way things are playing out, it feels almost inevitable.
CJW
1 day ago
If Trumps war pushes us into a recession doesn’t it follow that interest rates will fall? Are the odds of that happening low?
Or is the demand for US debt so low that interest rates need to stay high to attract lenders?
It does appear that any way you slice it increasing your position in gold and other precious metals is the right move even though they are very high historically.
I am entertaining the thought that the fed will try to lower rates to head off a pending recession. The federal debt will probably be hard to sell at below market interest rates, therefore the fed probably steps in with QE to purchase what the private sector does not buy, potentially a lot. Commencing with Greenspan, the fed has delt with every problem by lowering rates, QE, or both. I see a high probability of both in the near future, as that is what the fed is comfortable with. Problem is no country has ever developed a prosperous economy by trashing its currency.
For a great missive on the subject have a squint at the link:
One reason I don’t think gold has bottomed yet is that oil is very likely to be headed a good bit higher (because of Trump’s war & strategic oil reserves getting close to empty). $110 oil puts a lot of pressure on Japan to raise rates and sell US Treasuries. $130 oil might be the trigger forcing the Yen-carry-trade unwind abruptly.
All of that would make for higher interest rates independent of Fed action, tending to depress gold. Furthermore, Middle Eastern potentates used to getting oil revenue will probably have to sell some gold.
Notice today: oil up 4%, Treasury yield up, gold down.
top gone
1 day ago
Good Idea
Pedro
1 day ago
I would be careful, its possible that Warsh is serious about “making banking boring again” and telling the politicians to F-off (somewhat) in which case confidence will start going back up and gold down
peelo
1 day ago
I bought some precious metals ETF shares recently. It holds the physical metals, rather than rolling futures.
Still only worth the paper on which it is written. If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it.
PMs are insurance, not speculative “investments”, unless you are a trader.
Jon
1 day ago
Lots of great resources on gold for those who are interested. Also better technical resources than drawing lines on price charts. Recommend MSA, Gromen, McGuire as three must have resources. The rationale for gold remains extremely strong IMO
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You always say gold is not an inflation hedge, and certainly from 1980 to 2000 that was true, but I don’t think one example proves the rule. If you have a relatively stable quantity of gold and an increasing supply of dollars, you would logically expect the price to go up. So maybe there were other factors at work during that time period. Eventually the price did break out. It just took a while.
When all of those are rising, its and indication that lots of very wealthy and powerful folks are anticipating impending doom. Stocks and real estate to crash. Gold and treasuries to explode. Mass bankruptcy and unemployment. Final wipe out of the middle class. Maybe the reason Trump started bombing Iran again. Let’s his family get back in at the bottom from a strong position. MAGA!
Stardate 2036:
Human #1 ” I’ll trade you my 1oz gold coin for your can of SpaghettiOs.”
Human#2 “No way! This is my last can!”
Human#1 shoots Human#2 in the face and takes can of SpaghettiOs from Human#2.
That might happen, but I think most of those few of us who have some idea of history and of what we may be facing, hope that things won’t get quite as bad as that.
Hopefully there will be martial law. Remember that in the great 1919-23 inflation in Germany, Germany was a defeated country, and had no army with the confidence to step in. In Latin America, inflations are sometimes stopped and order restored by an army takeover, but I think it only happens after a nod from the U.S. Embassy. The officers of those armed forces have all been trained to some degree by American training colleges, and they are in awe of the Yankees and won’t move without their approval. So inflation can get pretty bad in a Latin American country before the army intervenes. We may hope that the U.S. Army itself won’t be quite so timid.
I think people who have thought about it at all expect to trade their ounce of gold for a large amount of whatever scrip is being used AFTER the inflation has been stopped. Remember that Dr. Schacht in Germany did not restore the use of gold coinage. He introduced a new scrip, but promised that he wouldn’t inflate it out of existence, and kept his promise.
For buying groceries during a crisis, you would need silver or copper coins. During my time as a (small-time) bullion dealer in Australia in the 1980s, I sold several bags of used silver currency to customers, I think from memory Europeans who had some family recollection of the great inflations of the early twentieth century. There was a coin dealer who would sell these coins, of no great numismatic value, and ship them to you through the post. Our Post Office being what it was, one of the bags once didn’t make it intact, but to their credit, they were very apologetic about it, and the customer didn’t make a fuss: he weighed the coins and said that it looked as if they were all there. He was just happy to have his insurance against famine.
This is a good article, the kind we rarely see form Mish these days….
I think you can ignore all the talk of Fed Rate hikes. Congress is continuing to run up the debt, now approaching 39-40 Trillion, with debt payments now exceeding the Dept of Defense’s budget….and US Social Security is still unfunded post 2032. Warsh will just print money.
Around 77% of promised benefits will continue to be funded by SS taxes.
Tens of millions won’t be able to eat on 77% of promised benefits.
i’m old enough to remember when a 100USD benjamin was baller money. now it’s piker money barely enough to do much of anything or purchase much of anything quality. i keep my billion dollar zimbabwe note in my wallet. i love walking around with a billion.
I live rural. Hate going to town because I know i’m out at least $100. That’s if I dont do anything except fill up the gas tank and get breakfast.
i lived most of my life in cities. no need for all that fancy stuff like autos. i walk to do my shopping and errands like doctors etc. we all have rich world problems. i’ve found the immigrant hoods the best as i am reminded daily by my neighbors of what real problems can be like……..
I got bodywork done at a place that had massive pot holes in the parking lot and no AC while I waited for an hour. Total bill for my Infiniti was $160 compared to $500+ at other places. Great work and looks like new.
The country people have harder lives, but I think they will be the ones with the best chances of survival when the bad times come. My father, who was a young working man in Australia during the 1929 Depression, said that it didn’t make much difference to him. He still had to do the same hard work. It was the people who had no work to do because the system had broken down who really suffered. And the government managed to keep them from ever finding out that it was the inflation of the previous ten years or so that had caused their misery.
This time won’t be exactly the same as last time. The government will take steps to keep what they are most afraid of from happening. That MAY make it worse for ordinary people.
There are more unused resources in the country. In the big cities, the only unused resource will be the people, and as Ayn Rand said somewhere, the government WILL find a way of using them.
Remember that saying (I don’t know who originated it) that if something cannot continue, it won’t. Many countries use tiny units of account, even the Japanese, but the tiny units of account that are still in use are not continuously getting even more microscopic. The rulers of those countries learn their lesson eventually.
Let See…The growth in M2 US Money supply is 6.9% compounded annually since 1996. I am an old fan of Milton Friedman who felt it was a measure of REAL inflation.
And it you adjust all US Treasury nominal bond yields by subtracting 6.9%, they all have negative real yields, and are essentially rocket fuel for gold prices.
What goes undiscussed by most pundits, is the fact that all CPI/PCE inflation measures are designed to understate inflation. Debt is not defaulted, but debt owners are paid off in full with dollars that have lost their purchasing power.
Good time to buy gold? I agree. What about silver?
Considering that the solar industry consumes so much silver and most of our new power generation comes from this source it makes sense as both an industrial and buying power preservation investment.
Also, oil supply is constrained and becoming unreliable for much of the global economy, it makes sense to invest in a bit of silver physical.
IMO the highest quality silver and gold mining stocks provide both exposure and liquidity (plus modest dividends).
The US needs to import 80% of its Silver Industrial needs…China controls 60% of the World’s Silver needs & they just stopped exporting Silver. In the 1H, the number one US export was $55B in Precious metals.
Soon our vaults of Silver will become extremely scarce. AI, Tech, Military & Space
All need a tremendous amount of Silver.
Load up on US silver mining companies
We’re are looking at 20-50 baggers in the years to come…
More ships change course in Red Sea after Houthi threats, data shows
2 Saudi ships have already been attacked and disabled in the Red Sea. If the Houthis close the Red Sea’s southern passage, it will be a true FAFO moment for this administration.
Houthi hell do they think they are?
Not too long ago, we, in the person of the Saudis with American technical support, were using famine and cholera against the Yemenis. They didn’t manage to close the Red Sea then. What makes you think they will be able to do so now?
the dow/gold ratio is the greatest long term chart to see over the past century. in the 21st century now over 26 years old gold has outperformed stocks by a factor of around 4x. no 1099s, no divorce attorneys,,,,, and no counter party risk when one owns gold.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart
Although only 10.5% pa vs 8% pa when comparing gold:S&P.
what time frame? 5 years, 25 or 100 years?
I doubt if the Fed raises rates at all this year. They know full well that the stock markets are on the edge, and any rate increases can tip it over into a serious bear-market and they will be forced to cut rates multiple times then.
More likely they will come up with some lame excuses why they “cannot raise it this time but could *possibly* raise it the next time, blah blah blah…”
https://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart
A question for you. You write:
I believe you, but during deflation, is it usually better to hold cash?
gold is money not debt
Money does well.
During the 1930s deflation, gold price in dollars was moved from $20.67 to $35 an ounce. But though it was fixed, a gold stock like Homestake Mining demostrated how good it is to mine/hold gold during deflation.
So is there even a need to look at Gold, over 100 Years for example. Don’t you only need to look at Gold since 1971 , or over the last 55 Years. Broken down over these few decades, it clearly shows a pattern of behavior. This has kept up, and will imo.
3/71 = Buy $38.80 (around all time high)
3/75 = Buy $177,75
3/81 = Sell $514.25
4/91 = Buy $363.00
3/96 = Buy $396.70
3/2001 = Buy $259.05
3/2011 = Sell $1,431.00
I call them Gold Bugs, and claim they a very wealthy party represented by a very decent amount of Professional Investors. They cobbled together around 1970, or they’re about, I would guess.
They drive the prices higher, when they are getting ready to unload. This is what was bought to sit on and do it again . I do believe this is actually an orchestrated and spectacular event. Take early 1980’s and you will see there was very “aggressive Market Speculation” prior to the rise up to $850.00. Before the final price which was much lower.
This aggression has gotten far worse, as the Media is involved, as are other means of getting out the faulty message “Now is the time to buy” with all sorts of data thrown about, and use of past results. They sound good, but are clearly manipulated imo.
They have been calling out Buy for many, many Months now, and some profit has been taken for sure. It’s a shell game, but done with safe guards in place, and a lot of power involved in making it all come together.
Just my 2 cents over many years of reviewing it, and realizing unfortunately, that I cannot afford to partake. This is for the wealthy to make money and the not so wealthy to have to part with theres chasing a Dream imho. Getting stuck holding is where much is lost, eventually, and much is rebought, to do so all over again.
Asset manager Bert Dohman tells Kitco the story of how in 1980 he went back through 350 years of gold price data to predict that they were at the cusp of a 20 year bear market, to be followed by a 31 year bull market….
Five years to go…? 🤔😊
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVSj1zQKNWo
Can’t take it with you, so pointless to worry about it.
“But….but….but….what about my financial well-being?”
You’ll eventually be dead, forever….if you’re worried about “financial assets” you’re worrying about the wrong things.
I worry about my kids and grand kids having to deal with this insane world so I’m tying to make it better for them.
Nothing you can do about it…
OK, there is one thing you can do — own farmland or property in the midwest and keep them as far away from society as possible. And also, take Scott Adams’ advice from February 22, 2023.
Why would anybody take the advice of that abject idiot?
If gold has bottomed it’s because Warsh won’t hike. I doubt he will. Inflation is good for corporate profits (none of the idiots on Wall Street care about inflation adjusted earnings) and we have quite a bit of debt to inflate away. Fed chairs love bubbles.
It’s not up to him. He’s one vote.
But even Powell had all his proposals passed with the occasional dissenting vote.
Warsh will hold rates and still claim hawk status by slightly reducing the fed’s balance sheet.
A low probability reading that I have is that that peak coinciding with the bottom in treasuries was a failed fifth. If so, gold will head down to about $3700, so I’m watching anxiously as it toys with going below $4000.
yeah the other scenario is that gold has one last bloodbath test in front down to the mid 3k range. That’s why I am not going all in just yet. But I agree that if gold can get above the $4300 level Mish points out, that would be a very positive sign that the lows are behind us. Fingers crossed here.
It’s been hanging onto $4,100 as a bench mark for quite a bit now. I anticipate it falling in a big, buy back, kind of chunk. Holders will get clobbered if I’m right. Which is why I don’t play with Gold, but do admire its grift, seeing as how it truly is just a speculative piece of rock now…
It’s not speculative. It and silver are the only kinds of money that do not depend on someone’s good faith, that have no “counterparty.” Why do you think the Bank of China is buying the stuff?
Great article, lots to think about here!
I dipped my toe back in with some GDX yesterday. Will pile on more if the $4300 /GC futures line is broached.
I rode the roller coaster up through late January and took a lot off the table then…unfortunately not enough and had to weather the last 8 months. Signs are that this could be the turning point, but I was beat up enough that I will stay unleveraged this time.
If history rhymes, this could be the similar scenario as witnessed in the mid 70s with Gold and Silver (which happened before my time, but my Grandpa and Dad went through it). That was also a painful correction but if you didn’t get shaken off the bull, you got handsomely rewarded. I hate to wish that on us again but with the way things are playing out, it feels almost inevitable.
If Trumps war pushes us into a recession doesn’t it follow that interest rates will fall? Are the odds of that happening low?
Or is the demand for US debt so low that interest rates need to stay high to attract lenders?
It does appear that any way you slice it increasing your position in gold and other precious metals is the right move even though they are very high historically.
I am entertaining the thought that the fed will try to lower rates to head off a pending recession. The federal debt will probably be hard to sell at below market interest rates, therefore the fed probably steps in with QE to purchase what the private sector does not buy, potentially a lot. Commencing with Greenspan, the fed has delt with every problem by lowering rates, QE, or both. I see a high probability of both in the near future, as that is what the fed is comfortable with. Problem is no country has ever developed a prosperous economy by trashing its currency.
For a great missive on the subject have a squint at the link:
Why Increases in Money Supply Can’t Create Economic Growth | Mises Institute
One reason I don’t think gold has bottomed yet is that oil is very likely to be headed a good bit higher (because of Trump’s war & strategic oil reserves getting close to empty). $110 oil puts a lot of pressure on Japan to raise rates and sell US Treasuries. $130 oil might be the trigger forcing the Yen-carry-trade unwind abruptly.
All of that would make for higher interest rates independent of Fed action, tending to depress gold. Furthermore, Middle Eastern potentates used to getting oil revenue will probably have to sell some gold.
Notice today: oil up 4%, Treasury yield up, gold down.
Good Idea
I would be careful, its possible that Warsh is serious about “making banking boring again” and telling the politicians to F-off (somewhat) in which case confidence will start going back up and gold down
I bought some precious metals ETF shares recently. It holds the physical metals, rather than rolling futures.
Still only worth the paper on which it is written. If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it.
PMs are insurance, not speculative “investments”, unless you are a trader.
Lots of great resources on gold for those who are interested. Also better technical resources than drawing lines on price charts. Recommend MSA, Gromen, McGuire as three must have resources. The rationale for gold remains extremely strong IMO