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Lumber Price Crash Continues, Not Even a Tiny Bounce

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11 comments on Lumber Price Crash Continues, Not Even a Tiny Bounce

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After topping out over $1700 the lumber futures crashed below the $600 level.

Lumber Futures by Month

Futures prices are easy to find. What I would like to see but cannot find is the historical price of a builder grade 2’x4′ stud 8′ long or whatever is typically used. 

Any builders out there have some 2’x4′ prices when futurers were $300, $400, $1700, then back down to now?

How much did the average cost of a house to build rise, then fall?

Thanks.

Mish  

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Mike Shedlock

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11 Comments
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RonJ
RonJ
5 years ago
 Another failed parabolic move.
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Bam_Man
Bam_Man
5 years ago
“When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill done.”
                 — J.M. Keynes
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taperwood
taperwood
5 years ago
In short, anything made of softwood went up majestically!   Hardwoods were not too affected.  Two items were particularly affected, wall framing lumber and sheathing.   Locally, 8 x 2 x4 studs went from $2.59 to $9.76 at the peak.  1/2 inch OSB or plywood sheathing went from about $11.00 osb/$13.00 ply to upper $60 OSB and upper $70 for plywood.   Drywall did not move at all.  Neither did insulation.  Shop grade hardwood plywood went up a bit but not too bad.   Copper wiring….GASP!   I think copper plumbing is dead now.  Everything will be PEX from now on.
Lumber, being a commodity, went through a crazy period, as they all do periodically.  It did the same thing back in the 1970s.  Be assured that lots of people are wanting it to settle down, including those in the industry.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
5 years ago
The last time I bough 8′ 2×4’s they were running about $2.50. Probably 4-5 years ago.
Prices are determined by supply and demand. Supply went up because of high prices and demand has gone down because the government has stopped handing everyone thousands of dollars.
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whirlaway
whirlaway
5 years ago
I have been trying to get a fence replaced.   And the companies were saying it would take at least 6 weeks to even give me an estimate and another 3 months to build the fence.  Maybe they were expecting lumber prices to go even higher.   But now, all of a sudden, they have started showing up to give estimates!   
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dbannist
dbannist
5 years ago

I’ve been renovating my house non stop since last fall.  The price of a 2×4 has climbed from 6.50 to 7.80 at the highest (that’s a 2x4x93 inch stud, typically used for framing).  It’s now 7.56.  I just bought 30 more yesterday and they were that price.Lumber futures are not reflected in the current price for months, due to the sellers needing to clear inventory.I would not anticipate seeing store prices fall for at least 3 more months.

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Hansa Junchun
Hansa Junchun
5 years ago
here’s what I got: 6/10/20, CT shoreline, 2X4 KD douglas fir 96″. = 0.59/linear foot
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jhrodd
jhrodd
5 years ago
I just looked at one of my invoices from 2019 and I paid $3.44 for 104 5/8 (precut for 9′ wall) Doug Fir 2×4 studs, 2×6’s were $5.22 .
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xbizo
xbizo
5 years ago
3/4″ plywood, 4×8 sheet was $75 about three months ago.  Looks like it dropped under $70 now.  Was $35.  
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anoop
anoop
5 years ago
builders have gotten smart since the gfc.  they have figured out how to build fast/stall depending on how the environment suits them.  if you want new houses to be built, you get the price of lumber down — it’s that simple.  otherwise they just sit and you can watch the existing house market go crazy.  the only people that get screwed bad are the ones needing urgent repairs.
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Eddie_T
Eddie_T
5 years ago
You probably saw this.
I bought lumber to build a boathouse in late 2019 and early 2020. I see Home Depot has 2X4 prime studs at $6.48 now. My best recollection (unconfirmed) is I paid about a buck less than that. I don’t think retail is back to the baseline. I’d love to hear from some builders.
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