Peak Manufacturing

Image placeholder title

Key Manufacturing Details

  • For the first time in history, manufacturing production is unlikely to take out the previous pre-recession peak.
  • Unlike the the 2015-2016 energy-based decline, the current manufacturing decline is broad-based and real.
  • Manufacturing production is 2.25% below the peak set in december 2007 with the latest Manufacturing ISM Down 5th Month to Lowest Since June 2009.

Other than the 2015-2016 energy-based decline, every decline in industrial production has led or accompanied a recession.

Manufacturing Jobs

After a manufacturing surge in November due to the end of the GM strike, Manufacturing Sector Jobs Shrank by 12,000 in December.

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

PPI Confirmation

Despite surging crude prices, the December Producer Price Inflation was Weak and Below Expectations

Shipping Confirmation

Image placeholder title

Finally, please note that the Cass Year-Over-Year Freight Index Sinks to a 12-Year Low

Manufacturing employment, shipping, industrial production, and the PPI are all screaming the same word.

In case you missed the word, here it is: Recession.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Auto Time Bomb: Slowdown Coming Up, Manufacturing Has Peaked This Cycle

The Brookings Institute says Auto slowdown Flashes Caution Lights for Manufacturing Employment and Trump.

Tweet's of the Day: GDP Peaked This Cycle?

Year-over-year GDP growth hit +2.9% on Friday. HedgEye is calling the peak.

Peak Gold? No: Peak Gold Production? Perhaps

Some claim we have reached peak gold. It depends on what one means by the term. Perhaps we have reached peak production.

Joke of the Day: Leading Economic Indicators Rise

The Conference Board says leading economic indicators for the US are still increasing.

Housing Peaked May of 2018: Cycle Trends Suggest Long, Weak Recovery is Over

Housing starts are down 4% in July. Permits are up 8.4%.

Manufacturing Productivity Declines in 54 of 86 Industries for 2017

A BLS report shows widespread declines in manufacturing and mining productivity.

Kudlow's Economic Forecasting Credentials

Gary Cohn is gone. Larry Kudlow will be Trump's top economic advisor. Let's have a look at Kudlow's track record.

US, Germany, Japan in Manufacturing Recessions: Full-Blown Recessions Coming Up

The US, Japan, Germany, and the Eurozone manufacturing PMIs are in contraction. Recessions will follow.

Massive Manufacturing Disruptions Due to Coronavirus Include iPhone

Global manufacturing, including the iPhone, is under severe strain because of coronavirus related work stoppage.