The November ISM Report shows the PMI® at 53.2%, up from 51.9. New orders, production and employment are growing. Inventories are contracting and deliveries are slowing.
| Index | Nov | Oct | PP Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend in Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMI® | 53.2 | 51.9 | 1.3 | Growing | Faster | 3 |
| New Orders | 53.0 | 52.1 | 0.9 | Growing | Faster | 3 |
| Production | 56.0 | 54.6 | 1.4 | Growing | Faster | 3 |
| Employment | 52.3 | 52.9 | -0.6 | Growing | Slower | 2 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 55.7 | 52.2 | 3.5 | Growing | Faster | 7 |
| Inventories | 49.0 | 47.5 | 1.5 | Contracting | Slower | 17 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 49.0 | 49.5 | -0.5 | Too low | Too Low | 2 |
| Prices | 54.5 | 54.5 | 0.0 | Increasing | Same | 9 |
| Backlog of Orders | 49.0 | 45.5 | 3.5 | Contracting | Slower | 5 |
| New Export Orders | 52.0 | 52.5 | -0.5 | Growing | Slower | 9 |
| Imports | 50.5 | 52.0 | -1.5 | Growing | Slower | 2 |
These are improvements from a dip into negative territory four months ago.
However, it is important to keep ISM is a diffusion index as are the Fed regional manufacturing reports.
All these indices measure is improvement or not. For example, employment rising by 10 employees at one company will offset employment falling by 500 at another company.
The above spreadsheet shows that new orders are up at 53% of the companies surveyed. We do not know by how much.
Nor do we know if there is a total increase or decrease in the dollar amount of new orders, production, etc.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
