“how to manage public confidence as social media expands people’s ability to “electronically panic,”
There’s the quote for the day, and not just about banking. The news media has been in panic the people for profit mode for many years.
ga7pilot
1 year ago
Before the GFC, deposit reserves were always never more than 10%. Today, there are nearly $5 trillion in demand deposits with nearly $4 trillion in reserves. If reserves indicate a safer banking system, and we do the math, then this should be the safest banking system we have ever seen. Right?
Perhaps such plentiful reserves portend just the opposite: that the banking system is far larger than it needs to be, with a huge amount of dead weight. Perhaps what need are bank failures, rather than more reserves. Perhaps we should all just get out of the way of it.
Doug78
1 year ago
If we want to get all upset and sacrosanct about Moral Hazard then we should look at the root of modern Moral Hazard and that is the development of the limited liability corporation. That, like insurance, is a mockery of individual responsibility. Insurance works by spreading around risk thereby negating individual responsibility and the limited liability company lets people be owners of the company by buying shares however if the company takes on too much debt and goes bankrupt the shareholders lose their money but more importantly are not responsible for the debts the company had taken on. That must be stopped because it corrodes the moral fiber of society by permitting people to escape their contractual obligations. That must be stopped before irreparable harm is done and we all end up in Hell. Abolish the corporation and make every shareholder liable for all debts. Damn the Dutch for inventing it in the first place!
There are two ways to clean the filth and the bacteria under the mattress : 1) crawl under the frame on the floor (recession). 2) move the mattress and the box sideways in Apr, May and June, finish the clean up job in June/ July. Sideways might take both the 2Y and the 10Y down, but in Jan 2023 the selling of the long duration will lift the 10Y above the 2Y, the 10Y will surpass the 5% and reach 7%/9% with momentum, before investors move in and take it down. Before the next recession no inversion.
Back in 2001, when Bush sent out $300 checks to everyone, I knew it wasn’t free money and would eventually cost me more than $300. I knew the same thing in 2020/2021 when they mailed out thousands of dollars of “free” money to everyone.
“The Fed even wanted to make up for lack of prior inflation, initially welcoming the pickup of inflation”. That’s just an after the fact excuse. They knew the free money was going to be inflationary but they justified it by claiming they were making up for low inflation rates in years past.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I believe COVID was used as a cover for a bailout of the entire worldwide economic system that was teetering on collapse in late 2019. That bought us 3 years. What now? How much further can the can be kicked? When is the next round of “free money”?
When Chinese banks will be on the brink of default on their Eurodollar debt the Fed might not kick the can down, adopting moral hazard. Yelen will rescue US $17T banks deposits, but not highly leveraged Chinese banks, unless…
And this banking crisis will be used to roll out a CBDC.
Art Fully
1 year ago
It was always known that changing the required reserve ratio was an alternate way of expanding (or contracting) the money supply – as direct on banks as open market (interest rate) operations, but less immediately impactful on the economy at large. The use of reserve requirements that way became increasingly infrequent and then the reserve requirement was abolished (set to zero) in 2020. In the current environment raising the required reserve ratio back toward 10% (for example) might have reduced the rate of growth of lending without having the same impact on interest rates as open market operations. So I think Mish has a point, and it certainly is possible to take baby steps towards a 100% reserve requirement (especially considering that the Fed is paying interest tied to market rates on the reserves) under current law and using tools currently available to the Fed. I don’t think Yellen or Powell even considered this alternative, or the FOMC either. There seems to be an appalling knowledge deficit at the Fed – the experts need retraining.
Returning to the 10% reserve ratio, would require banks to raise capital which would tank many more, spreading the panic.
The idiots who cut the ratio to zero are accountable for this one way fiasco, but are too busy examining what happened.
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
See: Eric Basmajian
In the week ending March 15th, other deposits at all domestically chartered banks declined by $60 billion.
Other deposit liabilities “ODL” strips out large-time deposits and money market funds.
Other deposits at large banks increased by $65 billion, while other deposits at small banks declined by $125 billion.
Over the last 12 weeks, other deposits at small banks contracted at an unprecedented 16.4% annualized pace.
As deposits flow out of smaller and regional banks, the funds are absorbed by larger banks or money market funds, which drive much less credit creation in the post-2008 period.
I’ve done the same thing on a smaller scale. Now that money market funds are paying interest again and the bank is not I’ve moved money out of the bank. Having a year’s expenses in an insured account is a good idea, but no more.
PapaDave
1 year ago
Personally, I don’t care much about playing the blame game. There are always failures in capitalism and free markets. Creative destruction! Out with the old, in with the new. Who cares about blaming smartphones, the fed, or bank managers? Waste of time. And I don’t have much time to waste lately.
Sorry that I’ve been too busy lately to check in, but I have a bit of time this weekend so I scanned the last week of articles to see what I missed. The climate change article caught my eye so I gave it a read:
Here is one of Mish’s quotes:
“ Let’s assume recent climate change is 100% manmade. So what do we do about it? That has been my line of questioning for a long time. I just have never been able to express my line of thinking as clearly as Kisin in the above video.”
I have seen the Kisin video a few times. It is excellent. And he is correct about how to improve the world through hard work, education, and scientific breakthroughs. And how blaming and complaining don’t accomplish anything (a theme I often mention in this comment section). Of course, nothing he said helps with the very real problem of climate change.
I can also answer Mish’s question. The world as a whole will do very little about global warming and climate change. Which means the problem will continue to worsen for the rest of this century, at the minimum. Of course the world will pay it lip service and spend trillions on it, without actually accomplishing very much. In the last 22 years of the “energy transition”, after already spending trillions we have added a lot of renewable energy sources. Yet because the world keeps demanding more and more energy every year (because the poor want to improve their lives, as Kisin pointed out), we are still increasing our use of fossil fuels at the same time. Which means more global warming.
The cost of our inability to make significant changes will be far more than 200 trillion. We are going to spend thousands of trillions on mitigation efforts over the coming centuries.
Global warming and climate change are the ultimate “kick the can down the road” problem. No country, or group of countries can solve the problem on their own. The solutions require the whole world to buy in and work together for a period of many decades or even centuries. And that simply isn’t going to happen. Particularly when there are always so many other pressing problems to deal with “right now”. Short term problems always get the attention. Like bank failures.
As always, there is nothing I can do about this problem. But I can recognize it and take advantage of it. We have seen how the energy transition has failed to slow the demand for fossil fuels. And we have also seen how oil and gas companies are being discouraged from spending more capex on exploration, pipelines, refineries etc. After a decade of underinvestment, the world is reaching a point where we will struggle to meet the growing demand for more oil and gas. Which means upward pressure on prices going forward. Which is why I intend to keep a core position in a lot of oil and gas companies for the rest of this decade.
You’re wasting your time. There is no point trotting out Lumberg’s opinion (or anyone else’s) to convince me that humans are not responsible for the present global warming. Because I’m not one of the tens of thousands of individuals who matter in this debate. I have no say in the decisions being made. So even if you could convince me that global warming is natural, the earth is flat, or smoking cigarettes is good for you, it wouldn’t matter.
Rather, you need to convince the leaders of the 195 countries who signed onto the climate accords, the executives of the vast majority of companies all over the world, and the thousands of scientists who work in this area. And since they are all convinced that the science says that the current global warming is manmade, that is all I need to know. I can then make my investment decisions based on their decisions.
I could care less about your opinion or Lumbergs. I simply care about what the actual decision makers are basing their decisions on.
Many of those who had money in that bank supported Woke values but these same people killed the bank by pulling all their money out. They could have easily saved it by subscribing to a capital increase but they didn’t. The Woke are not very loyal clients at all. I hope other businesses take note of this.
8dots
1 year ago
The average account in a regional banks is 4K. Their charts have a similar characteristics to SVB banks, but they didn’t go bk. Many depositors of SVB bank withdrew in panic. Other, outsider, were caught because they weren’t connected. The regional banks little candles were sliding on the bunny slope. First slowly, in tranquility, until they all plunged in unison to Mar 13/14 Anti backbone. The Anti create an inverse bubble. Some moved lower during the down thrust.
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
The banks would be more profitable if they collectively were outlawed to pay interest on deposits. Toasters be damned. All monetary savings originate in the payment’s system. There is just a shifting from demand to time. The banks are paying for the deposits that they already own.
Depositors would then activate their savings, e.g., via nonbank conduits, MMFs, Treasuries, etc. And these savings never leave the payment’s system. There is just an exchange in the ownership of existing deposits.
I.e., the banks should be outlawed from buying their liquidity through open market instruments, they should revert back to the old-fashioned practice of storing their liquidity.
I definitely agree a large part of the problem is the balance sheet of each bank. I could make an argument, especially after all this turmoil, a banks liquidity of assets should approximately match the due dates of all the potential demands against those assets. Maybe it should be required. If a bank’s portfolio is 50% in 30 year treasuries, then those treasuries should not be financed by demand deposits. Those investments should have been financed with long term debt or equity capital. Deposits should only be used to finance cash on hand or real short term securities (overnight). If we fazed in the requirements for matching the assets and liabilities appropriately, I don’t think a bank could be run once the assets liquidity matched the potential demand due dates. Would there be enough spread for the banks to be profitable with so much less leverage? IDK.
In the end analysis, I think, this bank was playing an interest rate “game” to increase profits and it backfired when the fed changed their policy. This happens over and over again. The central government laws, the fed, tax laws or fiscal policy rapidly change which then quickly changes the value of assets. If you are on the wrong side, it’s painful. It seems a bank that size would have or at least could have hedged the risk. It happened over two or three quarters; pretty fast. All this would be ok if a run didn’t potentially cause more runs until the whole banking system failed and commerce had to stop. Also, I think, many thought when the accounting profession stopped mark to market in the 2008 crisis it meant this problem had been addressed and amortized yield to maturity was risk free; not so. I do believe, not requiring mark to market helped us pull out of 2008. Banks ought to be more conservative, though!
Our fed is full of hubris and dangerous. On average, we don’t believe in free markets or free people to resolve anything or any problems, but, I contend, free markets and free people correct for all these issues regularly. The problem is, often a lot people get hurt during the correcting process. It’s the fed and the manipulation that gets us in deep trouble and gets things severely distorted! What can you do except mostly try to hedge to protect yourself.
Only gov’t-backed bonds were allowed to be marked at face value. All SVB had to do was buy a bit of interest-rate insurance as all other banks did and they would still be here. That is what cause them to go under, not that it had 10 year bonds.
1-shot
1 year ago
Interesting, but your artcle simply changed the scapegoat from smart phones to the fed. The reason the bank(s) failed was incompetence at the highest levels within the bank(s) period.
Stop making excuses for poor, incompetent, fraudulent bank management. Theres no need for a scapegoat. They sank themselves. The fed, smartphones, interest rates, blah blah blah. All these things simply shined a light on bad investments by bad management and self dealing and fraud.
There were people very well paid to keep an eye on things, be aware, and take action if necessary.
They failed to do so.
Off with their heads!
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Once you’re so insanely economically illiterate, that you manage to convince your little pea sized brain, that the failure of a mismanaged company is some sort of “bad” thing; there really is no hope at all. You will never be right about anything. Ever. In your entire pathetic little life. All you say, all you think and all you do, is guaranteed to forever and ever be 100% dead wong.
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Absent internet and smart phones, the difference in speed in panic would be maybe one week. One week would not make a difference.
The main problem is bubbles everywhere you go. Those who trade stock/bonds see the market is in bubble.
Those who try to buy property are appalled by the price jumps.
Everyone is atuned to the sound of popping bubbles, and that makes bank runs credible.
Moronic statement like, there won’t be a crisis in our lifetime, don’t inspire confidence.
It’s depressing that the root cause isn’t sought in the mirror.
MarkraD
1 year ago
“Heck, try paying for anything with $10,000 in cash. You will have a quick knock on the door wondering where you got the money and more than likely it will be confiscated as drug money.”
I don’t use checks, so I have none, just over a year ago I bought a used vehicle for yard work/errands, paid $10K cash, no arrests or warrants, yet.
“All SVB or any bank had to do to maintain 100% liquidity was park deposits at the Fed or in extremely short duration US Treasuries.”
Still bewildered at the logic of SVB’s presumably educated executives allowing so much long treasuries in their portfolio at a time when interest was at all time lows, that said, not exempting regionals from Dodd-Frank would have exposed this stupidity long ago.
From where I sit, this failure almost seems like it was intentional, I’m interested in knowing who paid for lobbying the Dodd-Frank exemption, then follow the money to who was short SVB over the last year or two.
“Still bewildered at the logic of SVB’s presumably educated executives allowing so much long treasuries in their portfolio”
Where else should they have put that money? Lend it out for commercial or residential real estate, how would that have worked out? Lend it out to buy stocks and options, again, how will that have worked out? There are very few places to invest right now because so much money is sloshing around and we have an aging demographic that doesn’t consume the way it used to in past decades.
There are many things bewildering…
How many people here do you think keep money in a bank account that pays 0.2% interest instead of T-bills paying 5% ?
How many people here do you think carry a balance on their credit card paying 20% interest when they could pay 0% if they paid it off each month?
It’s always easy to be an arm-chair quarterback, a lot harder to offer real solutions.
“It’s always easy to be an arm-chair quarterback, a lot harder to offer real solutions.”
No armchair here, chum, I took positions in TMV in 2020 and I stated on this forum I was doing it (Under “Frilton Miedman”), right around the time I was selling the oil I bought when Putin was fearmongering he’d keep oil at $15 “forever”. (Zerohedge commenters, great contrarian advice from mother russia)
If I had trading options, so did banks. – If I knew to at least not be in long duration T’s at the lowest interest rates in history, so did they.
How, if I knew, did a bank not?
To me, it almost seems planned, they couldn’t have been that stupid. Like, maybe have some external friends take short positions and share the gains.
.
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Bank runs? Well now everyone is catching up on why hedge funds, Jeff Bezos (Arrived Homes), and others were buying up real estate and farmland the last few years because those are hard assets which even if they lose value can generate income through lease/rental or future sale.
As I stated before, people that think they are being smart keeping under 250k at Bank A, Bank B, and Bank C will realize that when those banks are force-merged they will lose all but 250k insurance. Someone said that each account is insured for 250k, that’s not the case otherwise people at SVB should have just opened 100’s of accounts and stuffed 250k in each one.
Real Estate is no panacea safe haven but it’s better than losing all but 250k especially if you have millions or billions.
Imagine what will happen when the hillbillies running congress decide to default, that will do wonders to the bond market so there is literally nowhere to hide anymore.
It’s fine to complain about the Fed but we need strategic, tactical and practical advice right now, rants wont save anyone anywhere.
Also, beaver pelts and tobacco work well for small incidentals, as does salt.
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Yes, they’ll keep studying this to try and sweep away any sense of responsibility for their actions. And the slaves will keep slaving on. As long as they have their big Macs and WiFi they’re on board with”authority”.
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
There was no need for QE, interest rate suppression. Secular stagnation is just the impoundment of monetary savings inside the payment’s system. Unless you activate monetary savings, there’s a deceleration in the transactions’ velocity of funds, a drop in AD, a drop in R-gDp. When the FDIC unleashed unlimited transaction’s deposit insurance, it contributed to the decline in Vt.
Lending/investing
by the banks is inflationary (expands both the volume and turnover of new
money). Lending/investing by the nonbanks is noninflationary (other things
equal). With nonbank lending/investing, there is an increase in the supply of
loan-funds, but no change in the money stock, a velocity factor, where pooled
savings are matched with loans and investments.
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
All monetary savings originate within the payment’s system. All bank-held savings are lost
to both consumption and investment – i.e., until their owners, e.g., invest
them directly or indirectly via non-bank conduits. And activating monetary savings outside of the banks does not reduce the size of the payment’s system.
Secular stagnation is the deceleration in the transactions’ velocity of funds because of the impoundment of savings in the commercial banking system.
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
A credit crunch occurs when there is an outflow of funds or
negative cash flow.
The last period of disintermediation for the commercial banks,
prior to the monetary policy blunders during the Great Recession, occurred
during the Great Depression, which had its most force in March 1933.
Ever since 1933, the Federal Reserve has had the capacity to
take unified action, through its “open market power”, to prevent any outflow of
currency from the payment’s system. That’s what the discount window is for.
BAGEHOT’S DICTUM: the central banks should lend early and
‘without limits’ to solvent firms at a ‘higher interest rate’ with ‘good
collateral’. But discounting was made a penalty rate on January 6, 2003
But Volcker did the opposite where discounting was not
contractionary.
And: “In 2002, the Federal Reserve began to set the discount
rate above the federal funds rate, reversing its previous practice of keeping
the discount rate below the funds rate.”
Bank credit contraction is cumulative and reinforcing.
Contraction is usually volatile and disorderly.
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Anyone who has taken a basic course in finance, covering the time value of money, should’ve known the impact of higher/lower interest rates and time to maturity on present value. The ‘consequences’ become more exaggerated as interest rates approach zero–higher present values on the way down, lower present values on the way up.
Going to negative REAL rates was the the work of morons, or the deliberate destruction of a fiscally sound, behaviorally-logical economy. We can pretend sub-zero rates were needed to restore economic activity. They were not. The competitive interaction of demand and supply alone will do that. It may take longer, but the result is far healthier in the long term–zombies die, innovation occurs, costs reduce. However, more importantly, risk and return are effectively priced.
The Fed has created a delusion. My solution uses a guillotine, not a printing press–it will be less likely to occur in the future
Like these guys?
by the banks is inflationary (expands both the volume and turnover of new
money). Lending/investing by the nonbanks is noninflationary (other things
equal). With nonbank lending/investing, there is an increase in the supply of
loan-funds, but no change in the money stock, a velocity factor, where pooled
savings are matched with loans and investments.
to both consumption and investment – i.e., until their owners, e.g., invest
them directly or indirectly via non-bank conduits. And activating monetary savings outside of the banks does not reduce the size of the payment’s system.
A credit crunch occurs when there is an outflow of funds or
negative cash flow.
The last period of disintermediation for the commercial banks,
prior to the monetary policy blunders during the Great Recession, occurred
during the Great Depression, which had its most force in March 1933.
Ever since 1933, the Federal Reserve has had the capacity to
take unified action, through its “open market power”, to prevent any outflow of
currency from the payment’s system. That’s what the discount window is for.
BAGEHOT’S DICTUM: the central banks should lend early and
‘without limits’ to solvent firms at a ‘higher interest rate’ with ‘good
collateral’. But discounting was made a penalty rate on January 6, 2003
But Volcker did the opposite where discounting was not
contractionary.
And: “In 2002, the Federal Reserve began to set the discount
rate above the federal funds rate, reversing its previous practice of keeping
the discount rate below the funds rate.”
Bank credit contraction is cumulative and reinforcing.
Contraction is usually volatile and disorderly.