Who backed down? Trump or Mexico? It’s really both. And it’s an illusion Trump gained anything.
Mexican President Statement
1. Mexico will immediately reinforce the northern border with 10,000 members of the National Guard to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, particularly fentanyl.
2. The United States is committed to working to prevent the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico.
3. Our teams will begin working today on two fronts: security and trade.
4. They are pausing tariffs for one month from now.
The above text by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, @Claudiashein translated from X .
The Tie-Tie (at Best) Deal
Mexico appeased Trump’s ego. He gets to brag.
So does Pardo. She gets to brag about halting the flow US guns (whether that happens or not, because Trump likely won’t do a damn thing).
Regardless, this is at best a tie-tie deal that could easily have been accomplished without all the tariff bravado.
What Does it Mean on Fentanyl?
Fentanyl does not fly on a magic carpet into the US by itself. It comes in by carrier.
Trump effectively closed the border. Those illegally crossing are now highly likely to get caught.
An extra 10,000 troops will help, assuming that’s real, but halting all illegal crossing will do more than troops to stop drug traffic than troops.
Pardo Stand Her Ground
The Wall Street Journal reports Mexico, U.S. Agree to Put Tariffs on Hold for One Month
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. President Trump said that they have agreed to put U.S. tariffs on Mexico on hold for a month after a telephone conversation in which both leaders agreed to take joint measures to fight fentanyl trafficking across the U.S. border.
President Trump said on his Truth Social platform that his conversation with the Mexican president was a “very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States.”
Trump added that his 25% tariffs on Mexico would be paused for a month, “during which we will have negotiations headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and high-level Representatives of Mexico. I look forward to participating in those negotiations, with President Sheinbaum, as we attempt to achieve a ‘deal’ between our two Countries.”
Sheinbaum said that Mexico agreed to immediately reinforce the U.S.-Mexico border with 10,000 members of the National Guard “to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the U.S., particularly fentanyl.”
The U.S. agreed to work to prevent the trafficking of high-caliber weapons to Mexico, she said. “Our teams will begin working today on two fronts: security and trade,” Sheinbaum added.
“He insisted on the issue of the trade deficit that the U.S. has with Mexico,” Sheinbaum said. “I told him that in reality we had a trade agreement” that was the best tool “to continue competing against China.”
Towards the end of the telephone exchange, “he asked me how long I wanted tariffs to be on hold,” Sheinabum said. “Well, forever,” she responded.
Something’s Lost and Something’s Gained
This Mexican standoff could have easily happened without all the bravado. But Trump wanted to make it appear that Mexico backed down.
Trump achieved his macho-man goal, but at a high price. The price we pay is the world now understands Trump is willing to break any deal, even those he makes.
I do not know the cost of that, and you don’t either.
Short term we have a “Tie-Tie”. However, the long-term ramifications due to the lost of trust in honoring trade deals is undoubtedly “Lose-Lose”.
Pardo was 100 percent correct in her assessment “We had a trade agreement and that was the best tool to continue competing against China.”
By the way, how is Trump supposed to raise massive amounts of money from tariffs to reduce the deficit if all he gets is a “Tie-Tie”?
I will do a follow-up post on the insanity in believing tariffs can replace the income tax in raising money.
Related Posts
September 26, 2024: Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade Deficit. Let’s Fact Check.
Trump proposes 60 percent tariffs on China. Would that reduce the trade deficit? Where? How?
October 5, 2024: Buy American Provisions Cost $125,000 Per Job Created
“Buy America” sounds great. But it’s costly and about to rise steeply.
January 31, 2025: Seven Charts Show Tariffs Would Harm the US Auto Industry
The CATO institute does a great job explaining why tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be a very bad idea.
I’m calling BS on this. I am sure this was arranged previously, with Trump insisting he get to say he imposed tariffs first and Mexico agreeing.
that said i’ll be happy if there’s less drugs coming in. But isn’t the real cartel the mexican military? Maybe having 10,000 troops on our border isn’t the best idea.
This is all just a show to manage perceptions. But economic realities cannot be masked over. I give it a few months before people realize that this isn’t working.
this is for the maga clown brigade,…the mind is like a parachute it won’t work if if doesn’t open,…. Frank Zappa
When facts don’t matter, the illusion of a gain is a win.
BOOM! Canada caves.
Canada has agreed to all of Trump’s terms and more. We may still put tariffs on Canada because frankly, we don’t need much of what they produce.
If you believe that Trump backed down from either of the trade wars that he started, even before Canada and Mexico followed through with their threats, well then you’re just delusional.
Tariffs are neither bad nor good. They are a tool for negotiation. In this case, neither Mexico, Canada or Columbia had a choice. But all this should have been obvious. Many in the media and on this blog fell for Democrat talking points yet again. Likely many of them will never learn. Others are suffering from TDS.
the whole thing is an obvious Kabuki dance. They’re only a tool for negotiation if anyone believes they are real.
trump,os doing what he did the first time, making a show from not much. like the kast trade war which cost US farmers so much revenue Trump had to get taxpayers to fund a $30 Billion bailout. How many MAGA fans remember that one? I bet zero.
Also, those deportations. There were over 4 million deported under Biden, average of 3,000/day. Didn’t hear about it. Now Trump sure cameras are there at every raid and deportation and MAGA is getting funny in the pants about 300 a day deported. I am glad he closed the border, but will be interesting to see what good comes of it.
Both Mexico and Canada were clever enough to find a way to make it look like a Trump win, without it costing them too much. The biggest losers here will be American businesses.
I suspect the vast majority of businesses in Mexico and Canada are already exploring alternative suppliers for many of the products they currently import from the US. Why continue purchases from the US, when they are such an unreliable trading partner, and you are worried about future tariffs?
And based on the reactions of ordinary Canadians (including some who comment here), they are now looking to avoid purchasing anything that is “made in the USA”.
Of course, in another month, Trump will make more demands. And businesses will have to go through all this uncertainty again, and again, and again. Not a good environment for investing in expansion.
Regarding the fentanyl story.
The border has security on both sides;
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) is responsible for what comes into Canada, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is responsible for what comes into the United States.
If fentanyl is getting into the US, it’s the US security that’s the problem. Although US Customs says that fentanyl is not a problem at the US/Canada border. So the entire exercise is a farce meant to appear as a Trump win.
What are the Canadian troops going to do? Stop all traffic and search every vehicle? That will put a quick end to cross border traffic. The US border towns along the Canadian border are going to feel the hit.
And of course, even if Trump managed to stop all fentanyl imports, criminal organizations in the US would just set up more of their own domestic labs to meet the demand.
Well said Papa!!!
How the hell are US businesses supposed to plan for the future with this kind of uncertainty? Tariffs are on one day and off the next followed by the threat of them returning in 30 days. This is a shit show.
It’s noise to distract you from the coup. (did I say that out loud?)
Coup??? What’s that? Is that the thing a chicken lives in?
Indeed… we’re just trying to supply the country with affordable eggs… nothing to see here…
I knew it. 4d chess!!!
What do you gain by negotiating like an a hole nothing all you gain is nothing…sic transit gloria.
a holes are incapable of digesting this simple fact. Makes them incredibly useful to me.
Who backed down?
1. Mexico will immediately reinforce the northern border with 10,000 members of the National Guard.
> Helping to Protect there Own Border.
2. The United States is committed to working to prevent the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico.
> Helping to Protect Our Own Border.
3. Our teams will begin working today on two fronts: security and trade.
> Working together on Trade, and a Peaceful Border amongst each other’s Countries.
4. They are pausing tariffs for one month from now.
> Who knows, we may Not Need Them NOW?
>> Seems to Me to be a “stalemate” or in this case, a Win/Win in My Book!!!
10000 soldiers,considering the size of US-MX border, won’t harm fentanyl traffickers at all. More specifically, you have 3145 km of borders , consider 3 shifts and this makes 1 soldier per km. Rather pointless to me
The President of Mexico’s name is Sheinbaum. Not Pardo. All media refer to her as such, including the reflexively disrespectful Trump. In Spanish nomenclature, the patronymic precedes the matronymic, and the patronymic only is used to informally refer to the individual. Not sure what you’re trying to achieve by flouting this simply-understood convention, but it’s confusing and awkward and easily corrected.
You just get out of here with your fancy pants book learnin’. Real Americans aren’t interested in that mess.
One more point. The border with Mexico is 3000km long. 10 000 soldiers have to rotate in 4 shift and they need some rear component (1/4 to 1/3 of them). Ask yourself how many guys with guns this makes per 1 kilometr of border at any given time. 1 boot per 1 kilometr? But a soldier has two boots (OK not all of them, I know).
ask yourself what the effective firing range is on a standard 556 military grade rifle. now ask yourself how many migrants are willing to take the chance of illegally crossing a border that is defended on both sides by armed national forces.
I suspect you have heard of trail cams. There are other devices much more sensitive.
One person sitting in a room can monitor quite a long stretch of border remotely.
When a suspicious event happens that would trigger a troop deploy.
Biden intentionally abandoning his job is no longer the case.
Each soldier can be issued a drone that can cover a lot of area search wise. See anything suspicious, call in a strike.
I am a bit perplexed that only fentanyl is named in Trump’s statement. Does it mean that cocain and heroin are patriotic drugs because they do not kill US junkies fast and our guys (CIA ?) make some money on them? And fentanyl makes money for China and kills junkies too fast and deprives out guys of long-term profits? I know that I am quite cycnical but I can’t help it 🙂
Cocaine is the drug of choice for those Wall Street / Hollywood types. That one is going to be ignored.
Heroin/Fentanyl are the working poor drug of choice so it will be eliminated as best as possible. Plus it’s a lot harder addiction wise that cocaine (crack is something else).
Fentanyl is a poor people drug. We don’t touch the stuff. The other drugs though, lets party like Matt Gatez and a 16 year old hooker!
This reminds me of when Reagan was in office and our adversaries and the people with their panties in a wad thought he would push the nuclear button…. It worked. USSR caved. Many people in USA fear the tariffs, not realizing Trump is playing everyone.
…including you. It’s hilarious you point to everyone else, that’s exactly what we wanted, and you will never figure it out.
The 80s are long gone buddy. Let it go.
It’s over. Canada just announced they will do what Trump has been demanding. Tariffs put off for a month.
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1886530445321662700
Same deal as they offered in December, but nice off ramp for my stinky little friend.
Since you like Cato Institute. Doesn’t seem like the Mexican troops are going to be stopping much fentanyl if they aren’t staffing border crossing points.
Here are facts:
https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers
Thanks for that and I agree.
Trump cucked.😞
You would not BELIEVE what that man watches me do to $melania.
If there is one thing we should have learned over the past 50 years it’s that nothing will stop the flow of drugs. Demand will be met with supply.
as long as the CIA can make them, there will be a supply.We got out of Afghanistan, cause the CCP started making Fenatyl which is fully synthetic – no poppies needed. Afghanistan was a CIA Poppy farm. where did all those poppies go?
FDR’s grandfather on the Delano side of the family was ship captain transporting opium to China from the East India company, its how the family fortune was made.
Drugs are big business, licit and illicit, look how much money big pharma made off of Covid19 vaccines. Think how much morelucrative vaccines could be, if they could make them addicting and sell them on the blackmarket.
Drugs don’t make themselves, there are large organizations involved, its a business.
CIA aren’t the only ones who make money off drugs.
no they are not, but they are one of the few that receive tax payer money to kill taxpayers, to enrich those who run the secret programs.
as a tax payer I have a problem with that, both moral and ethical and financial.
You won’t when we declare martial law and start killing people for protesting against us.
Hilarious, guns are illegal in Mexico and the ones who have them are the cartels .The same cartels that the mexican government allows to operate inside their territory and take money from them for protection . Mexico is corrupt . They facilitate the drug trade and human trafficking. Their no gun laws are so effective it places them as one of the most dangerous places in the world . If you want a gun in mexico for protection you most likely will have to get it from a government official or a cartel . The current administration has pledged to go after the mexican cartels and gangs . I believe they will and these illegal cartels and the mexican government best tighten their chin straps because they are going to be hit from all angles and they should they have faciltated illegal drugs that have killed millions over the last several decades .
In the event Mexicans are smarter than Canucks.
It’s either a win win or a tie tie…that is the goal of both. Not sure why this is hard for some to understand.
Smart political moves on both sides so far if this outcome is indeed true.
With trump it’s either win-lose or lose-lose. He doesn’t feel like he won if the other side doesn’t lose.
actually he doesn’t believe that and if you read art of the deal, he explains why thats a bad idea..
Trump talked about this in his book from the 80’s. A tie is just as good as a win basically. I don’t know why anyone believed these tariffs were going to be a thing. I’m not a Trump shill but it should now be obvious how he operates. His methods make no sense to most people to include me but it’s very effective. We had a trade surplus with Mexico before NAFTA. What has happened since then has been a relentless attack on average Americans for the benefit of a small US cartel.
Caligula commanded his soldiers to attack the sea.
That was Xerxes, the Persian King, in 480 B.C.
hence the Xerox machine..not the Caligula machine.
Musk’s Takeover Of The Government’s Computer Systems Needs To Be Understood As A Cyberattack, Or Worse https://www.techdirt.com/2025/02/03/musks-takeover-of-the-governments-computer-systems-needs-to-be-understood-as-a-cyberattack-or-worse/
Nonsense… we’re just having a look around. We may order lunch on the company card though.
At a Gentlemens club too I bet!
Tomorrow is taco buffet at the titty bar!
I prefer the open face Roast Beef sandwich myself 😉
its much worse than a cyberattack its a financial attack on the corruption within the government by NGO’s funneling money through other countries.
This could destroy an entire class of upper class consumers in the greater Washington D.C area.
I see recession at DC area Malls, and jewelers…
And that’s the biggest problem for the world now. No nation or business can adequately plan on doing business with the U.S. because they’ll never know when Trump will breach agreements, pricing structure will change, tariff/tax will change, etc.
Imagine signing a contract with someone to remodel your house and they decide the price is now 50% higher during the course of the remodel unless you do something like buy lawn service too or whatever crazy whim. It’s total insanity and I think business will slow to a crawl or businesses will simply invest elsewhere until the temper tantrum toddler is out of office.
And we’re less than a month into Trump in office and there is already endless uncertainty.
Agree 💯
Contracts and a robust fair court to settle diputes are foundational to a thriving economy.
Trumps has essentially nuked the the idea behind having a contract. How long before he simply ignores the courts?
You have to read the fine print in your contract to see that it can be cancelled at anytime.
According to Trump, that clause is implicit in all contracts in which he is a party.
Have you made a contract with him? I doubt it.
Woodsie appears to be somewhat intelligent, so that’s not surprising.
Wow….just…wow!!! I’m screenshoting this. President Musk actually replied to me and said I’m “..somewhat intelligent…”
I’m getting this shit framed to show all of my friends.
Thank you President Musk. Thank you for making my day. I’m crying right now……this is fucking awesome!!!!!
Don’t let it go to your head. Remember, I am BY FAR the smartest man in the world.
Yes, of course sir. Apologies.
Unfortunately this is all too common a business practice in Florida (land of scofflaws). I know lots of people who’ve had contractors quit mid job if they run into cost overruns and the home owner doesn’t pay more.
That’s one big reason remodeling is done ‘pay as they complete work’ rather than one payment up front (The reverse is also true from the contractors end in that they want partial payment along the way to ensure home owner doesn’t stiff them).
Before you ask about suing, you have to understand the Homestead law prevents you from winning someones home in a civil suit (see OJ Simpson). So virtually no one keeps any wealth outside their home value which can’t be taken from them in a lawsuit loss.
Trump’s tariff threats are working Cassandra’s
Theater for theater shows how shallow these stunts are. But somebody might try a genuine chin-check on the guy (and us) one of these days — like the PRC. Meanwhile Putin is trying flattery to see how far that gets him.
Fentanyl is so successful in part because it is easy to smuggle.
2mg is enough to kill most people when not cut.
1 lb is worth $1M on the street. A bag of flour size load is $2M. It’ll get in.
The only way to reduce imports is by destroying production capacity.
Fentanyl is smuggled from China directly into Canada through their ports. Many estimates put it at more than comes into Mexico. It’s a massive problem and the govt looks the other way. Laundering those proceeds is how the average home price across all of Canada is now $500k when Canada’s GDP per-capita is lower than Alabama.
a big part of why BC real estate is so costly, the CCP invasion of Canada, its a handy place to have a base to invade the USA.
Yes, money 🤑 laundering from drugs and Chinese corruption is rampant in Canada.
Caught smuggling, get a taste of your own wares, problem solved. Over the border, inside the country, wherever. Dealers, smugglers, cartels, buh bye.
Trudeau will do the same. SPX might go straight up.
10,000 troops from a country known for the drug cartels buying politicians, police, and high raking military personnel. Color me skeptical, but I doubt those troops will stop much, if any, fentanyl. That assumes that most fentanyl even comes across the Mexican border.
This is Potemkin Village theater on all sides.
I’d guess the Port of Los Angeles…..
Unreal people posting crapola about nothing they know about. About 80% of the fentanyl seized is at US-Mexican border crossings. The other 20% is seized from areas outside the official crossings.
If it was so easy, why didn’t Biden do it?
Instead, Biden let millions of folks cross the border so freely?
Perhaps some well-placed employers had his ear?
I keep him away from the farmers and ranchers now.
Gotta be mentally cognizant to do anything.
How can anyone be surprised at the outcome if we know Trump is like this? This is nothing new. I suspect many people are having problems with open, transparent trade discussions. This process is much better for all – i think everyone should learn to adapt to the new reality and improve themselves as a result. The childish “save face” era where we think minor countries have equal say is both silly and detrimental. Finally adult time.
What process? Bullying?
I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
It’s a win if one American life is saved from a drug overdose. I expect Mexico will also cooperate with US drone strikes on the cartels.
One life? I’ll believe you after you sacrifice yours in the Ukraine… Even traffic rules cause levels of fatalities we can deal with. Get smarter.
A billion dollars per junkie saved. Winning!
Sorry, but you are wrong. Over 80% of fentanyl is seized at official ports of entry into the USA.
Wrong about what?
The Fentanyl that is seized is not the problem. Its the unseized Fentanyl that is causing the problems.
Common Sense Approach?
I expect an Executive Order shortly to correct the misnomer:
“MexicanAmerican standoff”.How is this a bad thing?
it makes Democrats look bad. They are the heroes in their heads, and they are already really confused about most of reality, throw something like in the mix and the next Democrat Convention could turn into a week of drunken debauchery.
I now see said the blind man….
It was always all about setting the stage to reinforce the Trump as Messiah narrative… he can fix ANYTHING!!! He is all powerful — watch as world leaders drop their knees and give him Suck.
Entirely orchestrated
As if the US would slap massive tariffs on tar sands oil — the US needs that oil to blend with the shit that comes out of shale… there is no alternative — so all the tariffs would do is filter through as inflation…
In what is a carbon copy of Trump’s tariff-delaying deal with Mexico, moments ago Canada’s outgoing PM, Justin Trudeau, said that he too had bent the knee, i.e. had a “good call” with Trump, and that US tariffs on Canada would be paused for 30 days after Canada – just like Mexico – agreed to send 10,000 troops to the border as part of a $1.3 billion border plan which “reinforces the border with new choppers, technology and personnel, enhanced coordination with our American partners, and increased resources to stop the flow of fentanyl”.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trade-war-over-mexican-president-says-tariffs-delayed-month-after-deploying-10000-troops
Has Goldman Sachs weighed in the ratings for the cartels, fentanyl and human trafficking companies listed on the stock exchanges most vulnerable to Trump’s Trade War? Any TBTF banks involved?
No, tariffs can’t replace the income tax.. Will have to rely upon the same method that Viet Nam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Ukraine adventures were ‘funded’.
Back in the olden days they sold War Bonds and the only celebrity to make special appearances to that end for both WWI and WWII was Exterminator.
Tarrifs put the tax burden where it belongs, on the consumer. Folks like me should not be paying for all this.
I’ve never sold more tunnel digging contracts across the US/MX border as we have sold today. Trump is GOOD for business!
know one does tunnel digging like hamas
They won’t smuggle fentanyl if smuggling tariffed goods is more profitable.