MishTalk TV Spotlight on Sanctions, Reserve Currencies, US Dollar, and Inflation

Keith and I pretty much see things alike. But here’s another take from someone who also believes that while trade in dollars may decrease, the US dollar is not close to losing reserve currency status.

We also discuss sanctions, energy trade rerouting, and rate hike expectations.

You can follow Keith on his website at Monetary Metals

On Twitter you can find Keith at @RealKeithWeiner

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Billy
Billy
3 years ago
It’s obvious that neither one of you have had acting, or interviewing classes. But that’s what I liked the most. Two intelligent people who ask a lot of questions about those who are running this world. It tells me that I can trust everything I just saw.
Scary because it confirms the insane amounts of corruption in this world and I feel that I’m not at all prepared nor have I done enough to help my children.
Scooot
Scooot
3 years ago
I enjoyed that Mish, I’d already seen Keith’s article about some of this on his website, his articles are always good food for thought.
The yield curve’s moved quite a bit since you recorded it, the 2s/30 is a positive 45bp as I write. I don’t think this means we’re any less likely to get a recession than we were likely to get one when it went negative. I guess the bond market is just as confused about the future as everyone else, but currently believes like both of you, that the Fed is powerless do much about supply chain inflation
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
nothing magical about reserve currencies. it’s almost organic. the life cycle of the most dominant european centric reserve currencies past 600 years come and go, very slowly as the dominant empires fade away……………..pax amerika is obviously fading away on battlefields and back home on the farm. not a bad thing, at all. perhaps the eastern globe will go to a more sound money system over the next couple of decades. there was a time, gold was western based money and silver was eastern based. i find it fascinating the chinese never spread their vast gold reserves piled up from centuries, out to their population. some great historians, like the late great, peter bernstein’s power of gold, surmise china has most of the old spanish empire’s gold, still. his book on history of insurance is a must read. against the gods.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
That was a very good and useful talk. There were a lot of insights he made but one stood out and that was that companies have to increase their buffers which generate increased costs at every level. Two years of covid plus Ukraine plus covid in China again is a very good reason why supply chains continue to be upset the continual chaos causes companies to demand higher buffers. Since chaos causes this need for higher buffers then the opposite, a return to calm, would cause the opposite reaction and a consequent drop in inflation. As Keith Weiner pointed out it makes no sense for the Fed to raise rates because raising them would not affect inflation stemming from the supply lines problems. That component would not be affected. Good food for thought. He also described accurately Russia’s problems coming from the sanctions.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
I’m hearing budgets are getting cut by corporations and this has started layoffs at some companies. That’s a sure sign that things are getting worse.
Kauaifb
Kauaifb
3 years ago
Where are you getting your layoff data?
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Reply to  Kauaifb
Anecdotal from friends. Budgets are also getting cut at my company. No layoffs yet but Capex spending is getting cut. Opex will be next.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Is that only in your industry?
Dr_Novaxx
Dr_Novaxx
3 years ago
Things have to get worse before they can get better.

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