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MishTalk TV with the CEO of FreightWaves: Trucking Recession or the Real Deal?

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25 comments on MishTalk TV with the CEO of FreightWaves: Trucking Recession or the Real Deal?

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Craig Fuller joins Mish on MishTalk TV. 

Fuller is the Founder/CEO of FreightWaves, American Shipper, and CEO of FLYING Magazine.

Fuller says a trucking recession is underway. We discuss what that means and if a full recession will follow.

I asked about the DOW transport Index which took a hit, and an article by Fuller may have influenced the decline. We also discuss the demand for drivers at Walmart.

The video follows a few Tweets by Fuller, one involving Paul Krugman.

Driver Shortage No More

Truck Sales 

The Bullwhip and Krugman

For discussion of the bullwhip, please see Fuller’s article Will the bullwhip do the Fed’s job on inflation?

Manufacturing Will Onshore

“Over the next decade, China will lose its status as the world’s manufacturing hub, while America will retain its status as the global reserve currency.”

Onshoring is one of the topics I discussed with Fuller. Curiously, Trump and Biden have the same trade policy.

In isolation, onshoring means higher inflation.

MishTalk Video

If you see a hole above where a video should be, typically an ad blocker interference or a very out of date browser is the culprit.

You can follow Craig Fuller on Twitter at @FreightAlley.

Question of Trust

“China as a trustworthy trading partner is a thing of the past,” says Fuller.

For those who think the Yuan will soon replace the US dollar as reserve currency need to think of the implications of trust. 

However, the issue of trust also applies to the US in regards to weaponizing the US dollar. 

Supply chain disruptions and distrust are everywhere.

For further discussion along those lines, please see Janet Yellen Warns China on Russia and Creating a Bipolar Global Financial System

Thanks Craig!

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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Mike Shedlock

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25 Comments
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Steve_R
Steve_R
4 years ago
Excellent video, Mish. I have to agree the transports are one of first indicators that the economy is changing. Craig was completely professional and very informative. By the way the IYT etf is back to last Octobers support.
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Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
I live in fairly nice complex, with middle to upper middle class neighbors. There are several large dumpsters assigned to cardboard recycling. I have noticed online orders are down as evidenced by the cardboard index. These dumpsters are no longer filing up before the trash man comes.
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Cocoa
Cocoa
4 years ago
Germany manages to have a robust manufacturing base and towns are oriented around components like lighting, relays etc. The US chose to export inflation to China along with pollution…and we are paying badly now. US defense has US components by law
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
4 years ago
Bring on the recession. Those with jobs that improve productivity will survive. When the tide goes out we will find out which companies, sectors and industries were surviving because of a hand to mouth existence.
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FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
people with a couple of healthy braincells left know perfectly what is coming our way….the unvaxxed ones in particular, that is …..In my fn 95% vaxxed Flanders, people are deluded like never before……Is it all planned, I wonder ?… Must be ! The utterly worthless vaxxed idiots within the EU circus are one hell of a fn example too, they wound up with reptile brains ……I am not vaxxed, I notice and see clearly what the fck is going on ! Say it ain t so, in a matter of months we ll wind up thermonucleared , NO doubt about it ! 50% of the world depends on Russian and Ukrainian food/materials …..JUST THINK ….if you still can, with the poison in your blood…..Can you ?
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
There is NO reason to make it quite so personal.
Being vaxxed or not should be about access to reliable information, a modicum of critical thinking, and risk and return. 70 and over, in poor health, the vaxx was a good idea based on the available information, nothing to do with brain capacity. People who wanted to travel and not sit at home and vegetate for a year, also got vaxxed. People who needed to work did not have much of a choice… etc. Mandates are for people who do not think for themselves, let alone critically. I figure anyone with an IQ under 100, and many over 100 lack basic cognitive skills in the USA–thanks to a failing education system.
Now, all that said, at present, the negative results of the vaxx still seem acceptable. A delayed and deadly response from some form of intentional DNA modification is always possible; however, the same result could be achieved with a simpler delivery mechanism. So let’s discount that conjecture. The real villains are our politicians who responded in the same mindless way (on both sides).
Where was innovation at a time when it was most needed?
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FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Captain, you know I quite like you, and I think you ll agree with me that ‘Somethin is very Rotten’ not only in the state of Denmark, but on the fn planet in general , there is no nice way out of it, I am afraid …. it s a pity actually, if only mankind would ve been more sophisticated than, let s say 10000 years ago, which is obviously not the case, despite of all ‘progress’ ….
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Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Belgians take Americanski vax, is ineffective, unlike Russian vax which derives its strength from potato!
All Russia vaxxed can count to potato!
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Jack
Jack
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Unfortunately what has happened is that a lot of susceptible people have been caught up with Russian-backed Facebook conspiracy theories over the last few years.
This has resulted in many bizarre and unhinged rants regurgitating the same sheep-speak like this.
Suggest you delete your social media accounts and try to ground yourself.
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FooFooFed
FooFooFed
4 years ago
Demand Destruction. Inventory Builds are huge and now China shutting down cities on Zero Tolerance policy on Virus that has minimal symptoms? Why is China doing this? Could be manipulation of commodity prices? New truck business won’t have much to carry then.
If your investing in China be prepared to take a total loss. Lots of funds being created without inclusion of Russia and China now.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  FooFooFed
I think maybe their people are getting squirrely, and they’re trying to pacify. Either that or leadership made a dumb statement and is sticking by it.
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amigator
amigator
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
I go with the latter.
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Jack
Jack
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
It would appear that the Chinese people are getting squirrely from the pacification, not the other way around.
So my vote is for the latter.
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  FooFooFed
“shutting down cities on Zero Tolerance policy on Virus that has minimal symptoms? Why is China doing this?”
Because they can. Or are at least close enough to be able to pul it off, to believe they have a decent crack at it.
And because they have lots and lots of cities. A city, even the size of Shanghai, in China; is just a small piece of the whole. About as significant as shutting down a grocery store in Monaco…..
Their zero tolerance policy was very successful back when covid had more symptoms and bigger consequences. They went from absolute pandemonium in Wuhan, to a place where there was virtually no risk of getting infected, despite 99% of the country operating normally at any given time. If/when the next non-minimal-symptoms mutation of some virus pops up, they don’t want to have to go through the Wuhan phase again.
As opposed to anywhere else, the Chinese have the resources to pursue this sort of “zero” tolerance. Very few other places are even close. No matter how bad the symptoms of the next one are. They’ll just get infected with whatever, flail about pretending to “do” something, get infected and die. After infecting a bunch of others. Just not those who have the resources and protocols in place to afford maintaining this kind of “zero tolerance” isolation regimes without succumbing in short order. Indefinitely if need be.
Whether throwing this much resources; even if one has them; at what is, at least for now, pretty much reduced to a common cold; is a wise thing is an entirely different question. But the reason they do, is largely that: They can.
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Mish
Mish
4 years ago
That Cloud – Snow Canyon State Park
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
The sunset is pretty cool, too. I bet no one was playing a conch shell at the time, or Taps on a trumpet.
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thimk
thimk
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
I upgraded my computer displays . this pic really pops .
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Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Wow! Gonna make that my desktop.
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amigator
amigator
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Looks so brilliant it can’t be real!
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Scooot
Scooot
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Beautiful shot.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
They could eliminate three of those red zones near the Mexican border by fitting trailers with seats, air-plane style.
On a serious note:
Anything Krugman says has a one-in-four chance of being partially right, and three-in-four chances of being totally wrong.
Regarding China as the less-than-#1 manufacturing hub; either Mr. Fuller doesn’t understand China’s plan for world domination, (eg. a takeover of most of Africa), or realizes that China will decentralize its activities and locate its manufacturing globally.
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Karlmarx
Karlmarx
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Capt’n – I think you give Krugman way too much credit.
Comment on China is on-point. Every company in China is really owned by the party, and as trade with the physical area of China declines, the companies will simply relocate operations to other areas with a population that they can exploit. Very old school colonial really.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
What we cannot ignore is China’s capacity (measured in billions of people); motivation (it goes back to the opium wars), strategic goals (#1 in world), supporting mechanisms such as infrastructure, political commitment, ability to achieve goals, etc. As for a global reaction to China’s virus, there has been none to date. It is far better to buy cheap shoes and forget about how many millions died.
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Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
If wishes were horses.
Americans will pay high prices for onshored goods, and the rest of the world will buy cheaper Chinese.
And if you think cheap Chinese c***, they can make quality stuff if you pay for it, but Americans chose to buy cheap.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Maximus_Minimus
Thing is, with the Chinese you pay pay for the good stuff, but that may not be what they deliver.
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