Based on a single recent poll in which Cruz leads Trump by a single percentage point, Nate Silver somehow concludes in his “Polls-Plus” Forecast that “Ted Cruz has an 81% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.
Precisely One Relevant Poll
In the only other weighted poll, albeit at a mere 0.02 weight, Trump led by +10.
Supposedly that 10-point advantage is to the detriment of Trump.
Weighted Average of Polls
Polls Only Projection
Silver’s Odds Estimate
I thought that Silver missed updating his blog with recent polls but Real Clear Politics does not show any.
Silver’s Incredulous Odds
Something is seriously messed up. Silver has not (that I have seen) been willing to make a projection based on a single poll.
Silver did so today even though that one poll will certainly be stale by the April 5 primary date.
Future polls may appear to vindicate the above call. But they can’t.
Assuming there really is only one poll now, then based on what we currently know, that 81% projection is ridiculous.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
