Let’s discuss bogus numbers and bogus reporting.
The New Residential Construction report for March came out yesterday. Let’s peek inside.
New Home Sales
- Sales of new single-family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 724,000.
- This is 7.4 percent (± 20.5 percent) above the February 2025 rate of 674,000, and is 6.0 percent (± 14.5 percent) above the March 2024 rate of 683,000.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
- The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March 2025 was 503,000. This is 0.6 percent (± 1.3 percent) above the February 2025 estimate of 500,000, and is 7.9 percent (± 5.3 percent) above the March 2024 estimate of 466,000.
- This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is 6.7 percent (± 15.6 percent) below the February 2025 estimate of 8.9 months, and is 1.2 percent (± 13.3 percent) above the March 2024 estimate of 8.2 months.
Sales Price
- The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2025 was $403,600. This is 1.9 percent (± 6.1 percent) below the February 2025 price of $411,500, and is 7.5 percent (± 8.3 percent) below the March 2024 price of $436,400.
- The average sales price of new houses sold in March 2025 was $497,700. This is 1.0 percent (± 7.6 percent) above the February 2025 price of $492,700, and is 4.7 percent (± 7.1 percent) below the March 2024 price of $522,500.
New Home Sales Detail
Bogus Numbers and Bogus Reporting
The margin of error on new sales is 7.4 percent (± 20.5 percent). The baseline numbers are garbage.
My main gripe though is something that happens at turns. Sales numbers do not include cancellations.
New Home Sales are recorded at signing, existing-home sales at closing. So existing-home sales include cancellations but new home sales don’t.
At the start of turn downs sales are overstated and at the bottom of the market sales are understated. Factor in margins of error and you have garbage.
New Home Sales vs Existing Home Sales
New Home Sales vs Housing Starts
I will discuss homebuilder speculation in a separate post.
Related Posts
March 15, 2025: The Case-Shiller Home Price Index Hits Another New Record High, Thank the Fed
Here is a batch of new charts.
Prices are high but few are buying.
April 19, 2025: Housing Starts Drop 11.4 Percent in March from Negative Revision
Homebuilders had another miserable month but permits jumped 15.8 percent.
April 24, 2025: Existing-Home Sales Plunge 5.9 Percent, NAR Claims “Solid Footing”
Credit NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun for the Hoot of the Day.
I’m glad to see there are a lot of relatively lower priced houses (smaller houses on small lots) recently built or in progress in my TX area so I think this could be increasing the sales numbers and should pressure prices downward. Though it is pretty sad these people bulldoze every single existing tree from the developments. What would be bad is if the govt/fed started pushing down mortgage and long term rates again with more money printing.
Voting for the Republicans and Democrats, besides Massie, is voting for more inflation because they continue to spend money we don’t have.
Could smooth out the data by averaging for 3 or 6 months.
Although for new houses, this doesn’t change the issue related to over-counting of orders that might get cancelled.
The number that probably matters more right now is the unsold inventory and months-of-supply, which is now rising out of control similarly to the start of the prior housing bust.
It IS appropriate and on-subject to question the truth of ANY Government numbers. NONE OF THEM MAKE SENSE.
Existing home sales (brown) low was 3,850K in Nov 2023. Sales might rise in Q2/Q3, before falling again in Q4/ Q1 2026. In 2026 sales might pickup for a few years, unless we enter a recession. Homes will become more affordable. In real terms home prices might be a bargain.
Bogus bs: new home sales have been in a trading range since May 2023. If it cont until Q3 2025 home builders will liquidate their complete inventory which currently stands at 503K (yellow), before Q4 and Q1 2026. In Q2/Q3 2026 RE shortages.
my 2 favorite charts for long term trend trading is the dow/gold and the case shiller index / gold ratio, charts.
when doesn’t the govt lie and fix numbers for propaganda?
correct analysis. GDP is almost worthless number as we count government war mongering spending, as productive. it’s silly.
Fasy Eddy – Please stick to the topic
How is this off topic? It is the root cause of everything we are experiencing.
We have run out of affordable energy and it is destroying the global economy.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2025/04/24/brace-for-rapid-changes-in-the-economy-the-world-economy-is-reaching-limits-to-growth/
Which has zero to do with home sales numbers.
Inexpensive energy is the foundation of the economy and civilization.
We are running out of AFFORDABLE energy. That impacts EVERYTHING.
The response to this has been for nearly two decades to this problem has been to run up debt to compensate. Interest rates were dropped to record lows – to compensate.
Eventually that – as expected – backfired… and inflation grabbed hold of the economy as AFFORDABLE energy depleted even further… (shale is NOT affordable… the industry has lost nearly half a trillion dollars since inception – it is a last gasp)
All of this has a HUGE impact on housing … the low rates and easy money drove housing prices through the roof.
But now … the era of ultra low rates is OVER… because hyper inflation was threatening (and still is)…
THAT is why housing sales are at record lows… the number of people who are able to afford a mortgage at 7% on these record high home prices is minimal… and many of those (like me – who sold a year+ ago) understand that there is no upside to the market — there will eventually be a crash…. and are renting.
Everything ties back to the end of affordable energy
My problem isn’t that this is off topic, but that it’s flat-out wrong.
We are NOT running out of affordable energy.
Nuclear power can meet all conceivable human energy demands for thousands of years.
That alone destroys your claim, but there’s plenty of other energy available too.
Today is your lucky day… you get to learn something:
Why Don’t We Just Build More Nuclear Power Plants?Surely there must be a good reason
It is easy to get the impression that proposed new modular nuclear generating units will solve the problems of nuclear generation. Perhaps they will allow more nuclear electricity to be generated at a low cost and with much less of a problem with spent fuel.
As I analyze the situation, however, the problems associated with nuclear electricity generation are more complex and immediate than most people perceive. My analysis shows that the world is already dealing with “not enough uranium from mines to go around.” In particular, US production of uranium “peaked” about 1980 (Figure 1).
For many years, the US was able to down-blend nuclear warheads (both purchased from Russia and from its own supply) to get around its uranium supply deficit.
Today, the inventory of nuclear warheads has dropped quite low. There are few warheads available for down-blending. This is creating a limit on uranium supply that is only now starting to hit.
Nuclear warheads, besides providing uranium in general, are important for the fact that they provide a concentrated source of uranium-235, which is the isotope of uranium that can sustain a nuclear reaction.
With the warhead supply depleting, the US has a second huge problem: developing a way to produce nuclear fuel, probably mostly from spent fuel, with the desired high concentration of uranium-235. Today, Russia is the primary supplier of enriched uranium.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/why-dont-we-just-build-more-nuclear
Now say thank you
Why nuclear power will never supply the world’s energy needs
https://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
Right on it Mish, your back! The key being when the accurate numbers are reported.
My guess is that the “Prices Sold” numbers will also fall in line with a drop, as the range of larger buyers and lower buyers fall. I think at this point in the market, the % of buyers is made up mostly from those with money, access to money, or had money at the time.
If I am correct, then this helps explain the shadow of information now being revealed, as proof the problem has been papered over for quite some time. Built on sand, Sink like sand.
“Cash is King” again, and won’t be parted with easily moving forward. A sale out shopping with power behind it will be 70%, and that will be seen soon enough. The drops in the RE Market will increase exponentially once the real sales Numbers show up on paper. After all, something is truly “Only Worth”, what someone else is willing (or actually can) to “Pay”. That number is dropping like a stone… 70’s No, but Mid 80’s Maybe?
It so much less expensive to get out of the home deal, than crushed down the road. Not much skin in the game to sign up. Looks like the Auto lease business has rectified their issue with much larger money up front, so they are truly locked in financially. Homes next? Condos I think absolutely as they rapidly increase. Boomers got the coin
Cannot imagine anyone would question the veracity of any statistic from a governmental agency?
As usual, your post has nothing at all to do with the subject of the blog you are posting into.
Second, unless you are the author of the blog entry you have partially posted here (are you Gail Tverberg?), you are committing plagiarism by not using quote marks to indicate that your post is copied and not your own original thoughts.
Reported to Mish.
“At the start of turn downs sales are overstated and at the bottom of the market sales are understated.”
Good insight, Mish. Makes sense. I remember when rates started going up substantially 3 years ago. Builders were freaking out as buyers were canceling left & right.
When is the market bottom ?
The 30 yr mortgage was 3% around spring 2022, then I consider that generally when home prices reached an all time high, or in many zip codes it was equal to 2006 or 2007 prices.
For example, this one is almost selling for the same price it was sold in 2006, but granted 2006 was the peak for the last housing bubble.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1609-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87635669_zpid/
I wouldnt be interested due to the very high $410 per month HOA fee. The taxes though arent high but I wonder how much to insure it and since there’s the HOA, a person probably can’t do their own mods for better hurricane resistance. Looks like it has little to no yard too, neighbors very close, but I guess thats expected with a townhouse and some don’t mind. Plenty of noisy “luxury” vinyl floor planks.
– When is the market bottom?
> When people stop buying overpriced homes to actual “Need & Incomes” driving overpriced automobiles to actual “Need & Income” Using Credit Cards like an overdraft account, but without the resources to support such behavior.
Maybe just maybe, the “Bottom” is here NOW!
The bottom will be local rather than national.
In other words the bottom in Florida will be different than the one in California or Texas and even within Florida it may well be different between the panhandle area and Miami.
After some thought on that, I would have to agree. The layoffs will come where needed, and we don’t yet know what States will take that hit. Some jobs will be added, but where again we don’t yet know, but, in America, so that’s good!! I would hope that “The Leaders” are making sure a few states Don’t get crushed while some get helped a lot. Maybe one I perhaps should not hope for as a reality though?
We shall see soon enough for sure!
Both tops and bottoms are local in real estate, we saw that in 2005-2010. Some markets peaked in 2005, others not until 2008.
In the current bubble, some markets have topped already while others are still rising. It feels a lot like 2006 or 2007.
Do you Trump guys like the drama ?
Drama? To the cult, doubters just can’t understand the 9D chess their god is playing. According to them all will be well when you are disappeared and everyone else kneels to their god. If their god’s actions fail there will be the cup of kool-aide (at only $12 a cup) that will solve all problems.