New Home Sales As Reported
The Commerce Department reports New Home Sales declined 0.3% in October but that does not factor in a significant upward revision in September.
Sales of new single-family houses in October 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000, according
to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 0.3 percent below the revised September rate of 1,002,000, but is 41.5 percent above the October 2019 estimate of 706,000.
New Home Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annualized
Seasonal Adjustments Annualized
Note reported sales of 999,000 for October alone when the actual year-to-date total (January Through October) is 703,000.
Year-to-Date Analysis
From 2007 through 2019, year-to-date total sales for 10 months were less than in 1963.
Think about population growth and let that statistic settle.
Sales then surged in 2020 exceeding all but the bubble years of 2003-2006.
How the Housing Bubble Was Reblown in 20 Cities
Prices are through the roof thanks to Fed stimulus and suppressed interest rates.
For discussion, please see How the Housing Bubble Was Reblown in 20 Cities
Meanwhile, please note that Without a Deal 12 Million Will Soon Lose All Unemployment Benefits.
It’s a tale of two recoveries, one for the haves and none for the have nots.
Mish
More evidence of the rigged market pricing in the Feral [no] Reserve’s FIAT DEBT “QE w/ abandon” – thru their WS white-shoe boys as usual – under cover of the SCAMdemic as the next step to the “Great Reset” when the current covert REAL asset consolidation/transfer/capture is rolled up by the int’l financial elite PBTs?
That jump in the amount new homes sold almost seems like a statistically anomaly? Specially after much of the summer was shut down. Who was building so many houses unless these are purchases for new houses to be built?
As if we need more proof of the bifurcation of our economy – it is good to be in the top 30%!
Gresham’s Law in action.
The internets say my house value is rising by 2%/month. But that’s not inflation and neither is record shattering asset prices so everyone can go back to sleep.
I’m in a City some avoid because it has a “gate way” neighborhood consisting in part of Haitians, Creole, others, in the nicer part of town with working folk area of nice suburban homes with lots of trucks parked in the drive way that read things like “Bella Construction” “A1 Movers” “Precision Windows”.
Off topic, but since the community section is closed, check out the title of Sidney Powell’s so-called kraken:
IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICCT COURT, NORTHERN DISTRCOICT OF GEORGIA, ATLANTA DIVISION
I’m not making this up. You’d think she could have had a high school kid proofread this first, but apparently not. See for yourself here:
I didn’t proof but it wasnt as bad as I expected. Most of it is wrapped in legalese. What some people want us to think is if one vote was incorrectly counted then all votes are compromised and election integrity is compromised. This is classic Trump. If one Mexican immigrant is a criminal then they all are. Basically the internet allows anyone to call anything into question and seed doubt. This is what Putin wanted.
Apparently Sidney’s GA lawsuit blames Iran (among others) for manipulating the election. This is so idiotic, we heavily monitor Iran and constantly look for excuses to antagonize them. No mention of the countries you’d expect in the lawsuit, like Israel or Saudi Arabia, but those pesky Iranians are now thwarting our elections. Ridiculous.
kraken…ohhh, kraken–where are you?
Has anyone seen my kraken?
It was supposed to be in Georgia today…
So sad.
The democrats stole the kraken, just like they stole the election and Hunter’s laptop. Stop the steal!
The first thing to do if you see a bubble is buy. There’s 5 more years coming.
The one and only thing that a Biden administration COULD (but probably WON’T do) that I would personally appreciate is put serious limits on how many single family homes can be purchased by a faceless corporation. Maybe even limit mom n pops to single digit SFR empires. I imagine the government will do it eventually, but it it will be far too late as there will already be entire generations of renters with no hope of ever “owning” a darn thing.
Meanwhile, apartment building after apartment building are getting built with old REIT money.
And buyers are hesitating on high-rise condos.
And I get ads every day telling me that now is the time to get into these REITs.
Probably someone wants to bail out.
Life will go back to normal in 2021. The world is not near its end.
I have seen so many large apartment building complexes built over the past 7 years. Crazy.
The Big Sort
Again, this will not end well. I just looked at the long term 10-yr Treasury yield chart. There are 3 fairly clear recent 4-yr yield cycles. The bottoms were in 2008, 2016, and very likely 2020. Yields have nearly doubled off the low in 2020. Those lending in 2020 have taken losses on mark-to-market if held or securitized. Those using adjustable rate mortgages will get blown out of the water when rates reset. In some respects, this bubble is worse because there are fewer qualifying 1st time home buyers due to greater student debt and COVID job losses.
I posted my little ranch property FSBO on Zillow to test the market…now my phone is ringing off the hook…..realtors coming out of the woodwork….I should flip it, and I should flip my house in Austin too….I doubt there will be a better time to take some money off the table…..but it’s hard…change is hard…stupid the way you get emotionally attached to the house where you raised your kids…….I also had an unsolicited offer on my practice this week. I should take the money and retire…..but I’m not sure I’m ready…..but the deal might not be so sweet in 5 or 10 years. Tough decisions.
I’m sure they said the same thing in Japan until rates went lower.
The GOP is trying to punish the country for not complying with its wishes… and it’s landing on the poor.
Fuck you. Democrats want everyone to be poor and dependent.