The goods deficit is a record -162 billion for March.
The Advance Economic Indicators for March sports another disaster for import-export goods data.
Advance International Trade in Goods
- The international trade deficit was $162.0 billion in March, up $14.1 billion from $147.8 billion in February. [I calculate a deficit increase of $15.0 billion compared to the full report not the previous advance report]
- Exports of goods for March were $180.8 billion, $2.2 billion more than February exports. [I calculate down 0.65 percent compared to the full report not the previous advance report]
- Imports of goods for March were $342.7 billion, $16.3 billion more than February imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories
- Wholesale inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $908.0 billion, up 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from February 2025, and were up 2.3 percent (±0.7 percent) from March 2024.
- The January 2025 to February 2025 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) to up 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent).
Advance Retail Inventories
- Retail inventories for March, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $805.8 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent) from February 2025, and were up 4.8 percent (±0.7 percent) from March 2024.
- The January 2025 to February 2025 percentage change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent) to down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.
Goods Exports and Imports
Compared to the previous full report (all numbers except most recent), imports are up 4.2 percent to a new record 342.7 billion.
Exports fell 0.65 percent to $180.8 billion.
Balance of Trade Goods and Services
The blue highlight is an advance number for March. Services are not included in advance numbers.
Services data is through February.
How Long Will Front-Running Tariff Inventories Supply Shelves?
Yesterday, I asked How Long Will Front-Running Tariff Inventories Supply Shelves?
I concluded about a month on average. Factoring in today’s data add another few weeks. Click on above link for details.
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In a rare, unified message, auto groups warn Trump about tariffs.
April 27, 2025: Shipping Collapse: Port Workers and Truckers Wait for the Ships to Come In
Orders have been cancelled, but the primary impacts are not felt yet.
Winning!
A lot of cancelled orders from China (and elsewhere) are seasonal items that are ordered months in advance. Once those orders are cancelled, it becomes too late to re-order in time for those seasonal sales. The longer that tariffs are applied, the more cancellations there will be of seasonal items.
Which will be an eye opener for many people when the items that they are used to buying, are simply not available. Or those that are still imported become far more expensive to buy.
We are still several weeks away from noticing the changes.
Those who sent imported goods to bonded warehouses could make a killing when tariffs drop.
https://www.scdigest.com/ontarget/25-04-17_surge_bonded_warehouse_demand.php?cid=22776
Contrary to the fantasy interpretation below:
Advance Retail Inventories
Next week the port of Los Angeles will see a drop in traffic of 35%, Despite the fantasy’s of the TDS II crowd, the chaos created by trump and his multiple iterations of tariff scenarios continues.
100 daze are over. It is time to get real in dealing with trumps pending economic disaster.
So far fairly good day for Trump administration.
Inventory report goes contrary to Powell’s thesis of Inventory shortages driving inflation higher. Trump taking the practical approach to Tariff implementation. Backing off the brakes as needed which shows a responsiveness completely lacking from the ideologues who preceded. Still keeping his eye on Trade deals with countries who also believe in Fair Trade practice as mutually beneficial.
Gold down signifying falling inflation expectations which have fueled a dramatic rise in price in a short time frame.
Interest rates such as Ten year forming a top for several weeks.
Equities finding demand as investors realize Fed will be lowering interest rates as economy starts to stabilize, recovering from Biden debacle.
ps: The sky has not fallen thus far today.
seven to 1 got the equity rally wrong today.
oh well.
Great videos on CNBC on the state of the supply chain. 5 to 7 weeks of stuff left.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aetILfTwBN0
100% self-induced by Trump & GOP clowns. 100%
Freightwaves CEO on CNBC, “It’s about to get much much worse!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL-Cm2kTsKk
The media are in the business of selling fear and anxiety, not reality.
The orders and shipments will resume once the accumulated excess inventory has been sold down.
Similar thing happened in Japan a few years ago when they changed their tax policies and everyone front-ran the changes.
Japan didn’t tariff the world nor have a clown the head of the executive branch. But who’s anxious and afraid? Strange that you read into that since the orange messiah is going to save you.
But you go ahead and pray at your Trump idol.
We’ll see what chaos comes by the end of the week.
Japan not only “Tariff’d the world”, they Tariff’d themselves. Raised VAT from 5% to 10%. Everyone front-ran the VAT increase.
Here’s Google’s AI summary in response to “economic effects Japan 2014 VAT increase”:
“Japan’s 2014 consumption tax hike, aimed at addressing fiscal deficits, had a significant, negative impact on the economy. It led to a surge in inflation, a decline in consumer spending, and a contraction in GDP. The immediate effect was a surge in inflation, with headline inflation exceeding 3% year-over-year. Consumer spending, particularly retail sales, plummeted as people front-loaded purchases before the tax hike. The economy shrank by 6.8% in the second quarter of 2014.”
Can’t trust the AI, though, the 6.8% is “annualized” so the actual dip was 1.7%, and of course the baseline had been goosed up by the front-running.
P.S. I wasn’t the first one to notice, this, I see there’s a decent article online here: Japan’s 2014 VAT Hike: A Preview of What Trump’s Tariffs Could Do
OOPS!
Amazon caved and denied that it would tell the truth about what tariffs cost.
Good little brown nosing sycophant he is…
Membership restored at mirage-a-lago and locker room privileges restored.
The dip in services is noticeable but not catastrophic. To me this indicates that our vendors are retaining credibility even if our political hacks are floundering.
Services are likely stickier than goods.
I would agree with that.
Plus it is my understanding that the importation of gold is no longer in the calculations of the trade imbalance.
Trump refuses to count services in the balance of trade, so we aren’t even talking about reality yet.
Congratulations to Amazon and Jeff Bezos for putting the tariff right on the price.
The Shite House spins it as a “hostile political act”?
Since when is telling the truth a hostile act and what kind of organization would want to crush the truth?
The last thing the trump followers can tolerate is the truth!
For an administration promising to be the most transparent ever, they sure committed a HOSTILE ACT when Amazon proposed adding transparency to their pricing.
= amazon
display the effect of tariffs on products a “hostile and political act,” adding “why didn’t Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?”
“It’s not a surprise,” Leavitt continued, adding “Amazon has partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm. So this is another reason Americans should buy American.”
========
jesus!!!
I would expect such words in my country(v. big and very cold), but not in USA in 2025 .
USA is just a couple steps from labeling everyone who disagree w/ trump as china/russia/iran/canada spy
alx
Alex,
The hostility that trump is stirring up within our nation is profound and protests on college campuses are turning violent. The trump nightmare is casting a shadow on our basic freedoms and AI is busy scoring each and every one of us for every click on our computers.
I remember freedom, peace and prosperity fondly. Our current oligarchy is on the wrong side of our long history of being a beacon of openness and freedom.
Orwells 1984 is worth a re-read in the context of personal freedom destruction.
Anyone who is on a college campus today already flunked the common sense test.
That’s funny!
We do not need engineers, doctors, nurses, architects etc?
Enjoy your silo! 😉
maga cult sounds more and more like the charlie manson acid head family cult. anti intellectual and anti education. just follow charlie, the ex con, no matter what.
Avery2 is volunteering to go get a factory job, since intellectualism is worthless to him.
Don’t forget, Russia is a big player inside the USA nowadays, especially when Trump is president.
Is front running disinflationary or inflationary (front running tariffs by raising prices on non tariffed imports)?
We’re winning so much it hurts. We’re going to need another jar of lube.
=need another jar of lube
sorry pal. we are out of stuff due tariffs !
go natural.!!
BOHICA, something we can all agree on