by Mish

It certainly is an honor to be mentioned along with the Big Picture and Calculated Risk. Here is a snip from the 10th Annual Year in Ideas.

For the 10th consecutive December, the magazine has chosen to look back on the past year through a distinctive prism: ideas.

Our digest of short entries refracts the light beam of human inspiration, breaking it up into its constituent colors — innovations and insights from a spectrum of fields, including economics, biology, engineering, medicine, literature, sports, music and, of course, raw-meat clothing. Happy thinking!

D.I.Y. Macroeconomics

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

Until recently, the economics profession largely controlled the production, dissemination and interpretation of economic data. Now there’s a new trend afoot: do-it-yourself macroeconomics, in which ordinary citizens pull apart the data and come to their own conclusions.

The democratization of economics owes much to the financial crisis that first hit in 2007. That ongoing catastrophe, which few economists predicted, tarnished the profession’s reputation, prompting some to look elsewhere for answers. They turned to — where else? — the Internet, where vast amounts of economic data that had once been hidden from public view were now online. Sites like FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, enabled anyone with a connection to the Web to download data on everything from local home-price indexes to credit-card balances to weekly fluctuations in diesel prices.

At the same time, a growing army of knowledgeable “econo-bloggers” began analyzing the data available online. Strikingly, many of the authors of these blogs — the brains behind the Big Picture, Calculated Risk, Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis and others — aren’t academic economists but people with real-world experience in financial markets. Their Web sites offer sophisticated interpretations of economic data and hold passionate debates with their readers over the merits of the data. As a result, economic data that were formerly greeted with grudging acceptance by the public — the latest unemployment figures, for example — are now the catalyst for endless popular exegeses.

Please see the article for a wide variety of other ideas.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

New Home Sales Plunge to Lowest Annualized Pace in Three Years

New home sales plunged to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 571,000.

Law of Bad Ideas

A proposal by French president Francois Hollande got me thinking about “The Law of Bad Ideas“.

Fire the CIA: New York Times Next In Propagating “Trust Us” Bullsh*t

One by one, mainstream media has fallen for “trust us” propaganda from the CIA.

Conversations with New York and Atlanta Fed Senior Economists on Their GDP Models

I had had recent phone and email conversations with senior economists at the New York Fed and Atlanta Fed regarding their GDP forecasts.

Fed vs. Fed: New York Fed to Issue Its Own GDP Nowcast; Atlanta Fed Too Pessimistic?

It’s Fed vs. Fed in the Nowcasting business. The New York Fed has decided to issue a FRBNY Nowcast, clearly in competition with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast.

It’s a Totally New Paradigm

The “nothing can possibly go wrong” talk is rampant again. It’s not stocks this time but Real Estate.

Batty Ideas: Boiling Frogs and BATs

The widely believed boiling frog theory says if put a frog in boiling water it will jump out but if you slowly raise the temperature it will stay in until it dies.

It’s time to shift the arrow.

Yes, Mish readers I am pleased to announce that housing has now reached “A permanently high plateau”. I offer the following quotes from a New York Times article as evidence:

Germany Joins Japan, Switzerland in Negative 10-Year Yield Club

For the first time ever, German 10-year sovereign bonds dipped below zero. With that event, Germany joined Japan and Switzerland in the negative 10 club.