The technical patterns on long-dated treasuries suggest rising yields. What about fundamentals? 
30-Year Long Bond Yield, Weekly Chart
10-Year Treasury Note Yield, Monthly Chart
10-Year Treasury Note Yield, Weekly Chart
Ascending Triangles
An ascending triangle is a bullish chart pattern that signals a potential breakout and continuation of an uptrend. It’s formed by a horizontal resistance line (connecting multiple highs) and a rising support line (connecting higher lows). The pattern suggests buyers are becoming increasingly strong, indicated by the higher lows, and may soon break through the resistance level.
Long-Term 10- and 30-Year Treasury Yields
Technically Speaking
These charts are very clear. And they are quite ominous for Treasury bulls.
Technicals don’t always play out according to expectations. So what do the fundamentals say?
Posts Regarding Fundamentals
February 10, 2025: Federal Deficit Is Up $306 Billion Compared to Same Period Last Year
The US deficit for the first four months of fiscal Year 2025 is $838 billion, up $306 billion. Adjusted, the increase is more like $157 billion to $225 billion.
March 27, 2025: US Debt Will Grow to a Staggering 156 Percent of GDP by 2055
If Congress extends the TCJA tax cuts with no offsetting savings, the deficits will surge.
May 2, 2025: Consumers Face End of De Minimis Tariff Exemptions on $800 Packages
The trade provision that allows consumers and resellers to avoid duties on shipments worth $800 or less is ending for products made in China.
Hooray!? 40% to 100% Higher Prices
Who wants that? (Exclusions for cultist parrots who cannot think).
April 9, 2025: Trump Promises $1 trillion in Defense Spending for Next Year
Even bigger budget deficits are now in store due to the first $1 trillion defense budget.
April 5, 2025: Trump Wanted a Weaker Dollar, Wish Granted, Euro Highest Since 2021
Futures are in a nasty mood tonight except for a new record high in gold.
May 1, 2025: GM Expects $4 Billion to $5 Billion in Tariff Costs this Year
Tariffs will wipe out up to a quarter of GMs’ net profit for the year.
April 5, 2025: Trump Sides With Elizabeth Warren, Won’t Sign a Bill That Cuts Medicaid
What a fiscal joke the Republican party has become.
April 30, 2025: Real GDP Down 0.3 Percent, Real Final Sales Down 2.5 Percent, Inventories Soar
Front-running tariffs led to a collapse in real final sales, the bottom-line estimate of GDP
Fundamental Synopsis
- Negative 0.3 percent GDP, Negative 2.5 percent Real Final Sales
- US Dollar Down 9.0 Percent This Year
- Deficit Is Out of Control
- Tariffs are slowing the economy and raising prices
- Republicans are unwilling to cut entitlements
- Trump wants more tax cuts that will increase the deficit
Long-term yields are high for fundamental reasons and the technicals match.
What to Expect
Anything, near term.
No one knows if Trump tariffs will collapse the economy enough to compensate for the stagflationary look of GDP.
Even if so, the long-term picture for long-term bonds is not good.
The TCJA will add trillions to the deficit.
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-tcja-permanent-analysis
It’s much worse because that does not include an increase in military spending, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, interest deductions on auto loans, no tax on SS payments, and restoration of SALT.
Figure about $8 trillion.
“… no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, interest deductions on auto loans, no tax on SS payments, and restoration of SALT.”
None of those will happen – with the exception of the SALT restoration.
Easy Peazy. Bribe your CONgressman. Nothing new under the Sun.
Ha! I thought Congressmen were sterling figures of integrity who didn’t TAKE bribes. Goes to show you what I know.
That’s really the way the system works. They call it lobbying and it makes people rich. That is why they never want to leave.
Nothing gets fixed until lobbying is illegal.
So Trump is just vice signaling again, eh?
Our leader have betrayed us they will sell our soul to stay in power. The only idea I agree with is the no tax on SS, which I don’t think will pass. That money was paid in with after tax money so it’s being taxed going in and going out.
USA gov debt is $37 trln
$ 43*44 trln by trump term end is already in books! and it is conservative
no wars, no recessions, no fall out from tariffs.
Make America GRATE Again
Debt has no constituents. This is exactly what is said in the halls of congress when a representative is privately asked about the debt. This goes for Republicans and Democrats alike. With no constituents needing debt to go away, it never will be reduced..
Explain Japan then ? You cant comment without putting it in the discussion
Japan and the US are two different countries
But Japan not looking great either
Mish, please add the real yield to your discussion. Note that the real yield of the 10YT fell when Fed Chair Alan Greenspan began to suppress the fed funds rate after the 2000 dot-com bubble burst. And especially after the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y
Also TIPS since that protects from inflation (although not from a rise in overall yields). TIPS yields are recently higher than before the GFC.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10
The Fed has bought long-term bonds to suppress yields but is currently shedding its bloated book…ssslllloooowwwwly.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Wendy
These tax cuts and significant additional military spending just show Trump is not a serious leader. (No surprise there!) He’s letting any fiscal sanity slip away by proposing to be all things to all people.
40ish yrs ago I was the KS State Director for the Concord Coalition. After banging my head against the wall with stupid people thinking BS propaganda (E.g. “just cut teacher salaries to balance the budget”) I slowly came to the universal political and human conclusion people always want a kinder gentler way and will inevitably suck-up to false solutions b/e reality is too painful.
In the end people get the political solutions they deserve which is a flaming bag of dog crap left on their front door, I just don’t think modern humans are up to handling real problems. And intellect and mature sanity is not cumulative across generations. So, people and epochs repeat human weaknesses over and over. Hitler et al will still repeat.
The first four months of FY 2025 are October2024-January2025 and do not include any of the “Liberation Day” tariffs which began coming in to the Treasury during April – so it’s bad (perhaps even very bad) but not as bad you are making it look.
“Hooray!? 40% to 100% Higher Prices
Who wants that? (Exclusions for cultist parrots who cannot think).”
Who wanted American jobs eliminated and shipped to China?
If China invades Taiwan and the U.S. government decides to intervene militarily, resulting in China cutting off various products to the U.S., they won’t be available at any price.
That’s a choke point. As should be obvious by now, the world is not just one happy global family, with a record global debt bubble to unravel. Unipolar is becoming multipolar again. Globalism is becoming nationalism. Reform Party won big in UK.
As the charts above show, the 10&30 yr bonds hit a long term cycle spike low inflection point in 2020. The trend has changed, like it or not. The Forth Turning is an ominous era, like it or not.
“Who wanted American jobs eliminated and shipped to China?”
You are looking at it the wrong way. “Who enjoyed the benefits of the cheap goods we enjoyed for decades once American jobs went to China?” You can lie to us, but you know the true answer.
Long ago when charting was rarer, they worked well. Now everyone with a computer and AI uses charts so the patterns often self-destruct before completion. It is even a winning tactic to trade against breakouts because the percentage of false ones is high. Our firm did it systematically years ago.
lets imagine Chinese positive trade balance somehow FALL, thus there will be less pressure on yan being stronger currency, so yan will fall against major competitors, and this fact will compensate smaller trade balance!!
it is macroeconomics 101, you dont even need to college to understand that.
alx
Most iPhones and other Apple products bound for the American market will no longer be made in China, Apple CEO Tim Cook said on May 1.
Apple CEO Tim Cook at an event at Apple Park in Cupertino, Calif., on March 8, 2022. Brooks Kraft/Apple Inc./Reuters
The majority of the iPhones heading for the United States in the coming months will be made in India, while Vietnam will be the main production point for products such as iPads and Apple Watches.
====
from ZH! MAGA MY AS1S!!
MOST amazing thing is
those so called smart CEO, or Mr Navaro and-or Mr Trump dont have even slightest clue about yan/$ rate and link to Chinese trade balance!
lets imagine Chinese positive trade balance somehow FALL, thus there will be less pressure on yan being stronger currency, so yan will fall against major competitors, and this fact will compensate smaller trade balance!!
it is macroeconomics 101, you dont even need to college to understand that.
alx
Projecting interest rate levels used to be easy. They just followed inflation. Now, even inflation is a little harder to predict. Any administered price hike is deflationary, unless validated by monetary policy. But the FED’s not “tight”. Just wait till they have to refill the TGA.
Most TGA might be saved for a rainy day. Tariffs might fill it up to a new all time high. Congrese would like to spend it on pet projects, but Trump will cut debt first. Tariffs are the stick. Without them mfg will not come. The carrots: in OH data centers produced almost $1T income to the state. It’s spreading to PGH. Data centers and their satellites are profit ctr to the counties, states and the gov. Data ctr explosion might lead to overcapacity. Overcapacities ==> to a banking crisis. Higher EFFR might slow them down. That’s Andrew Mellon, but Ben Strong cut rates for Churchill and Hoover was all over the place. Ben Strong died in Oct 1928.
“Trump will cut debt first”
That’s the best laugh I’ve had yet in May. You misspelled something, not “first” but “Never”
Mish; what are the odds that QE will be utilized?
And when?
Trump hit the Hooties. The Hooties hit Ben-Gurion airport. Iran mysterious bombs cont to explode daily. Portugal deports 20K illegals. Will a 20%/25% EFFR be above TNX or below it. What it will a hot inflation above 20% but below 80% do to the gov debt and to RE.
I still like the 37 day, and the 53 year rates..
Great article Mish,
The contemplation of rising interest rates during a recessionary business environment concerns me in many ways. Some random thoughts:
In addition to the TCJA deficit increases, we appear to be heading into a deliberately caused recession which reduces tax revenue at federal, state and local levels. At the same time more financing is necessary so there is more competition for money.
We can expect a wave of layoffs for dockworkers, truckers, delivery personnel and layoffs in the oil patch starting this week as shipping to the us is down over 35%.
U.S. crude producers are facing far higher costs for drilling materials like pipe and fracking fluids. Estimated breakeven for our domestic suppliers is an average of $52.00 per barrel. Approaching that level results in shut ins and bankruptcy for smaller producers that are leveraged in any way. If rates rise as indicated by the above charts and historical indicators, the financing situation for all businesses will increase.
This situation is not good for those that are being forced to finance the building of factories in the U.S. on the whim of a malcontent president.
The flood of foreign cheap oil on the market will help the global economy, but not so much the U.S. which is the largest producer and exporter of crude oil, natural gas and distilled products. Our exports go down in volume and price paid to us falls which increases the deficit.
It is hard to find a silver lining in anything this administration is doing. Cuts to cancer research for children are cut while the wealthy and billionaire class get tax cuts. Our infrastructure is crumbling while our labor pool is shrinking – during a time of full employment? Trumps strategy is to force a massive job dislocation and recession to turn people into low paid factory workers?
A far more prosperous approach would be to invest heavily in infrastructure which puts the money in the hands of American workers that build more efficient roads, bridges and trade routes within the country so in turn, local manufacturers can thrive.
This approach increases the trurnover of money through many hands where it is taxed multiple times before it reaches the investor class. The velocity of money is a highly under reported statistic and a great predictor of economic activity.
FINDING THOSE WORKERS was not mentioned. STARVATION must happen first, and even young Gen-ZERS will HAVE TO WORK unless the STATE pays them bene’s longer, creates another Pandemic Miracle Hand-out Regime, or they actually ALLOW people to starve homeless. It is NOT a pretty picture for everyone but the Shareholders and the Politicians and the LOBBYISTS who cooked up this mess Called America!
There is no reason for homeless to starve. Beans, rice, oatmeal, etc. are very cheap and abundant.
I wish I could say you are wrong but right now, you are not wrong. I have business clients in construction & maid service franchise for starters and neither can find workers. And when they do, they want to be off the books
Maybe we need to start making more babies, and I am serious. We just then have to make sure they are not coddled & brainwashed like the last 3 generations.
I don’t believe there is truly a labor shortage. If there was employers would be more open to hiring workers aged 50+.I would like to see employers so desperate for workers that they will be forced to stop their age discrimination.
I think we pressured Japan to build cars here, about 40 years ago, and that turned out pretty well. All though the negotiations were probably not as clumsy as today.
all this stuff is just minor symptoms of the real cancer. US is just another over extended worldwide empire that does not fill the treasury from those wars and policing the 7 seas. many times in world history, empires have been profitable for awhile and then not. the problem is the empire. in 1800s and early 1900s men in USA would use this term to describe us. for 3 generations now, the amerikan people are so dumbed down they cannot face reality. all the rest is really just eyewash and rounding errors and re arranging deck chairs on the titanic.
Go ALL of the way back historically to ROME and there is your model. We even have the elites making love with boys and other Men’s wives, all in one room on an Island and they are TRYING to keep that covered up by killing willing rats!
correct. and much further back than Romans. take some anthropology classes. or read some david graeber. debt, 5000 year history is a great read. human primates sold off their kids to pay debts, one of the first currency.
Aren’t all humans primates?
The only thing we learn from history is that we don’t learn from history. This is the fourth turning and will lead to either war and political/ social warfare until the process is cleared. Like Woody Allen said, ” we are approaching a crossroads, one leads to death and destruction and the other leads to hopless despair. Lets pray we have the wisdom to choose the correct path.
Primates yes, but some are more primitive.
Or koalas because of similar fingerprints and noses capable of wearing glasses.
yes. but not all primates are not humans. think planet of the apes
The debt market like the equity market follows defined quantitative fractal patterns. The SPX reached its 1982 13/32 of 33 year peak valuation on 19 February 2025 and is undergoing a 12 Feb 2025 interpolated 11/28/19 of 28/16-18 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal series with the 3rd 28 day fractal representing counter trend dead-cat bounce growth and the 4th 16-18 day fractal representing a crash fractal with nonlinearity in the terminal final trading days. Money will flow from equities into the debt market driving down interest rates. Counter trend growth in composite equities will appropriately occur with the major trend lower in equity valuations into 2026 roughly following a 4-phase 12 Feb 2025 17/34/34/2-24 week fractal decay series. Even with tariff related possible inflation the fed will lower interest rates in response to the composite equity devaluation and, as necessary, increase their balance sheet to provide bandwidth for debt purchases.
MMT works somewhat when all central banks have collaborated in doing the same thing, i.e., expanding their collective balance sheets.
following a 4-phase 12 Feb 2025 17/34/34/20-24 week fractal decay series
Overlay the Stock charts with Measured Moves and the picture crystalizes.
Cutting hundreds of billions from Medicaid, a program that provides minimal health care support for the poorest of the poor in this country. And at the same time, celebrating the rise of the military budget to a TRILLION dollars (with more increases guaranteed in the coming years)…
Why spend so much on “defense” when we are shielded by two massive oceans on the east and the west, while the neighbors north and south of us are weaklings always trying to appease their formidable neighbor?
Our “Defense” is ALWAYS fought off of American mainland soil.
We should get concerned when they Bomb the Big Island of Hawaii first, leaving us SCARED so much that we will negotiate a settlement and then split up the Spoils (as we did in WWII).
Another series of treaties then ensue, and the new Reserve currency will be decided by serious looking Politicians who already decided the outcomes…..all WELL in advance, as we did with Hitler who stole away to South America.
Everyone down there at 100 years old know it.
Hitler never went to South America.
Let states fund and run Medicaid programs with local tax money.
They don’t have enough – that’s the point of Federal subsidies.
Will the Feds rake in less off the states, where wealth is created and stolen from?
There is massive misuse and fraud for those getting enrolled. Just kicking off the illegals will save a lot.
Cut Medicaid, cut defense and consider Alaska a bit more in your statements 😉
Ascending triangles can lead to either up or down in the context of Elliott Wave Theory. Wave 4 in a strong bull market and wave B triangles in some zigzags will signal one last upward move before a larger pullback. Wave 5 ending diagonals signal a very sharp reversal ahead. I don’t see any of those structural situations playing out at the moment.
I have better clarity with Hurst cycles in the bond market. The last nominal 54 month cycle was from middle of 2016 to middle of 2020. The bond market is approaching the middle of 2025, the next expected low in yields. Heading into this low the Federal Reserve will lower yields. Trump will claim victory of convincing the Fed to lower rates.
Structurally, I see a corrective triangle that began in late 2023. I interpret it as wave b between a completed zig and a yet to complete zag. Now structural and temporal models align for a more confident forecast of short term down into this July / August, and very much up the next 10 years into the 60 year cycle high. The Fed will be forced to raise rates. Trump will have a fit.
Fundamentals point to a 6%+ 30 yr yield. Foreign investors can and should be demanding those yields.
yes and domestic investors should get an extra 25 points and a tax credit that is swappable, tradeable and sellable within a pool of US investors.
More information would be gleaned if a chart of European bond yields were also included. Over the last month, European yields have been declining even though they have similar deficit spending problems.
The increase in American yields is NOT because of increasing inflation expectations, but instead in the real estimated yield (after inflation) to hold the bonds (the longer the maturity the higher the expected yield), the opposite is true of the change in European bonds.This after inflation expectation is about 2% for the 10 year and higher than that the further out on the yield curve you go for US bonds. The after inflation yield has been going down for European bonds.
This on its own would normally devalue the Euro to the dollar, but the opposite effect is in play.
Thus, the only logical explanation is that someone (China) is dumping US bonds and is heavily buying European bonds.
There is no evidence China is dumping US bonds
The evidence we have suggests Europeans are the ones.
It’s all subjective because it’s masked
Banks are the primary bond holders in Europe. They would be reporting massive losses on these trades. The PBoC doesn’t really worry about that.
Aren’t total Chinese holdings in treasuries < $1T? In other words, less than 3% of US federal debt.
This is being debated EVERYWHERE but in front of us, clearly, and the concocted mess called the Bond Markets are also manipulated to throw us off. NO ONE BUT THEM knows where things are headed. The FED has no control, however, no matter how they jibber-jabber to US.
Who was that masked man anyway?
European bonds have become the temporary safe-haven trade because Europe is generally little affected by the US-China trade war so prudent money is flowing in. Overall Europe does have lower government debt than the US although that might be changing because of Germany’s projected increase in defense spending. The recently stronger Euro also helps. When the trade war resolves then we will see how the bonds do.
this may change when the European Union states lose their power grid for long periods. UK is working on a green nuclear weapon that is solar powered, only works in the afternoon though..
Good to see Germany spending big on defense.
Third time is the charm, so they say.
Y’all are going to have to remember this is not the real world. Donald is going to borrow $5 trillion more this year — who cares what the bond market says. With this quantity of money injected into the economy, there will be no recession. Higher yield on the ten means 4.5% on my retirement money maybe forever. We need to spend less time in reality and enjoy the wonderful world our new King has built for us. Relax .. have a mint julip.
have a mint julep, or 2, or 3. or just the whiskey and water on the side..
its a long show, pace yourself, but enjoy the majesty and distraction, we are all travelers only here until the encores and the bows are taken.
To make a mint julep, muddle fresh mint leaves with simple syrup in a glass, then add bourbon and fill the glass with crushed ice. Garnish with a sprig of mint and enjoy this refreshing cocktail, especially during warm weather or at the Kentucky Derby.
ps use USA mint leaves. For a Canadian Julep, simply substitute Canadian Whiskey for Bourbon, and Maple Syrup for Mint Leaves..
For a Chinese Julep, substitute Anti-freeze for Whiskey, and Fentanyl for mint leaves..
LOL!
most likely the tax revenues for the next few years will be lower due to the coming stagflation from idiotic schizo trade war….with potential huge layoffs and slowdowns in many sectors. the deficits will be gigantic.
8-ball says, Reply hazy, try again …
“If Congress extends the TCJA tax cuts with no offsetting savings, the deficits will surge.”
I realize this article is really about Treasuries but you actually said this? Implying that EXTENDING the cuts will cause the deficit to surge? If deficits surge with no change in tax rates it means spending increased or revenues dropped due to economic decline, not because an extension that changed nothing tax-wise took place.
The argument that the TCJA exploded the deficits is based on shaky reasoning that assumes a cut in rates reduces government income. Tax rates affect economic activity. The higher they go the more likely entities engage in uneconomic behavior to generate paper losses to shelter income and / or restructure how and when income is received.
The government take of the economy bounces around. But the lowest is has ever reached after WW2 was 13.2% in 1950. The minimum tax rate that year was 20% and applied to anything over $0. The top rate was 91%. I assume you would not argue that the economy was bigger because of those rates.
If the TCJA simply expires the middle class is in for a surprise. The biggest absolute and percentage drops occurred in the 28% and lower brackets (excluding the 10% bracket). In the last year (2017) before the TCJA took effect the 28% bracket started at $91,900 for a single filers and $153,100 for those filing jointly. Those figures will be adjusted upward for inflation, but that isn’t anywhere near the wealthy, much less super-rich, level, especially considering that higher salaries tend to be paid in areas where the cost of living is higher. A complete sunsetting of the act would cut the standard deduction nearly in half, another big boon to the middle and lower classes, as was the increase in the Child Tax Credit. It would also give back the uncapped SALT deductions to the (super) wealthy.
As far as “ominous” Treasury charts go, I don’t know. I do not use the chart patterns as there is subjectivity in terms of where to choose the starting points so I don’t use them. I look at stuff like oscillators, gaps, support / resistance, Bollinger Band 2 and 3 standard deviation levels, etc. There is a full gap back in October in the 10-year chart that would be filled at the 3.752% level while there aren’t any I see on the upside. There is a partial gap at 4.788% but I weight full gaps much more heavily. Technically bonds are in the middle of nowhere and are showing me nothing of interest at this time.
The TCJA will add trillions to the deficit.
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-tcja-permanent-analysis
First off, you should only be addressing the revenue portion, not lumping in interest on the debt.
The revenue portion is all based on some model / assumptions and you are referencing it as if it is unassailable fact. This stuff can never be tested for accuracy as it is not possible to rewind time and re-run. The groups that got the biggest percentage tax cuts are the ones most likely to spend it, which would increase economic activity and tax receipts at all levels of government. I can’t model those to exact figures but I can use economic / human behavior reasoning to say an increase is likely to take place. It’s folly to throw numbers around as if the values will be known
Again, the deficits are already there and increasing with the TCJA in place, i.e., no major tax changes, as well as before it. Not removing it is not what will cause a deficit increase. . They may (or may not) be smaller with a sunsetting of the TCJA, but they will still increase because spending increases.
Looking at their numbers they are projecting a $3.6 trillion revenue shortfall over 10 years. That’s a $360 billion / year shortfall.
So here’s something you can do. The revenue figures can be volatile year-to-year, especially with Covid, so look at the average increase in tax revenues before and after the TCJA for some period of years and make a plausible argument that the cost will be $360 billion / year.
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/current-u-s-federal-government-tax-revenue-3305762
Hey Red. No need to worry. Trump said we were taking in $2 billion a day in tariff revenue from all the countries that are ripping us off. Recently, he said it was now $3 billion a day.That’s over a trillion a year! And it will cut the deficit in half.
He can then eliminate the rest of the deficit by lowering taxes even further, which as you say, will increase tax revenues through economic growth.
How much lower do you think taxes should go in order to raise enough tax revenue to eliminate the deficit?
“How much lower do you think taxes should go in order to raise enough tax revenue to eliminate the deficit?”
Don’t stuff words into my mouth and spare me the politics that is rampant on this board. I am not interested. I am contesting the argument that the TCJA is costing trillions, not making an argument for lower taxes or for or against Trump. Those numbers are bandied about as gospel. They were and are projections.
The actual numbers don’t back the claims. The average increase each year in revenues since the TCJA took effect over the 6 years of data at the site I listed is $186+ billion / year despite 2 substantial drops. The 6 years preceding it averaged $170 billion / year and that was with Fed pumping in the first 2-3 years. QT has been underway for some time and Reserve Bank Credit has shrunk 25%+ from its peak.
Given that revenues increase one would expect the increase to grow over time as the base number gets higher. It is impossible to say though what exactly the increase “should” be, but there is nothing in the numbers that is shouts “massive losses,” if any, of revenue to the government. Even accounting for higher base numbers, the $360 billion / year Tax Foundation figure does not pass the smell test and I consider it utter crap, much like all long-term projections.
Your words. You stuffed them in your own mouth.
“The argument that the TCJA exploded the deficits is based on shaky reasoning that assumes a cut in rates reduces government income. Tax rates affect economic activity. The higher they go the more likely entities engage in uneconomic behavior to generate paper losses to shelter income and / or restructure how and when income is received.”
Whether government, personal or corporate, dept gets paid down from income, theft, inflation, or any combination. By definition, other than fees for services rendered and tariffs, the government has no income. There is no transparent relationship between taxes (fees) and services provided, but there is very transparent deficit. A deficit leaves no room to pay down or even cover debt so unless you have a plan to eliminate the deficit, the debt cannot be sustained. Pretty simple math compared to your complex and theoretical scenario.
Trumper: “But this ship can’t sink!”
Realist: “She’s made of debt, sir! I assure you, she can. And she will. It is a mathematical certainty.”
From the Trumptanic™
you’ve got your metaphors mixed again.
the ship of state floats on a sea of debt. infinite debt keeps us afloat. removing the ocean and we flounder.
I don’t know what “complex and theoretical scenario” you are talking about but your response is not relevant to my post. Read my response to PapaDave.
I concur..
stagflation ahead. all indicators. tariff wars. inflation of most things. over stretched empire. will make the 70s seem like a skip in the park.
so as an investor, are you saying “narrow bell bottoms”? or “wide bell bottoms”?
or perhaps, (dare i say it) “monster bell bottoms”? where do you stand sir?
(and how do you walk in those things?)
no doubt stagflation ahead. all indicators. tariff wars. inflation of most things. over stretched empire. will make the 70s seem like a skip in the park.
The easiest way to eliminate inflation is to not count the things that are going up in price and just count the things that are going down in price. Easy.
this is usually referred to as “proper government modeling”
LOL. You are on fire today.
They will have to PULL OUT EVERYTHING that causes inflation and just leave the BREATHING IN AND OUT AIR – – -as the true inflation indicator – – you know, the VOCAL PARTS – – and include the Throats/Tongues/Lips of those that REPORT IT TO US. That then makes it very clear that inflation is nearly ZERO!
Large countries destroyed by internal forces, not by external forces.
World Renowned Critical Minerals Expert Jack Lifton Says There Are No Rare Earth Deposits in the UkraineMy best guess is that the entire thing is 100% political; there will never be a single ounce of dirt dug out of the ground and refined. This is Trumps way of creating a narrative that he “won” something in exchange for future ability to keep sending weapons It is no longer Biden’s war. It is now Trump’s war. He actually went out of his way to hang that albatross around his neck. Idjut. https://investornews.com/critical-minerals-rare-earths/world-renowned-critical-minerals-expert-jack-lifton-says-there-are-no-rare-earth-deposits-in-the-ukraine/
Titanium deposits in Ukraine are far more important than the rare earths. Guess who dominates the world in titanium reserves and processing? China.
Ukraine has the worlds largest known reserves of almost 100% pure bullshit as has been proven over the last decade.
such a resources cannot help but be strategically important to any and all 1st world nations…
The Nuland Mines, outside of Viktoria, near the Biden Gas Processing and Cash Laundering facilities has been running 24/7 since 2014 and somehow the purity and volume of bullshit is increasing, not declining pointing to a renewable strategic resource of immense and astounding force.
Gwako, they needed Congress to smother PRE Z with kisses and a full mirage of Mainstream Media – – and then he is STILL there, pushing out Vomit as News, and now PRES TRUMPCO will be lauding him with praise AFTER TRUMPCO gets their cuts!
yes but, dammit (pardon my language) we need desperately need to get our hands on that bullshit..ASAP..
if it fails into chinese hands, well I hope you speak chinglish or at least can decipher an Ikea instruction book..
I suppose that’s the reason the US Department of Defense swallowed its prive and bought/buys Russian titanium through shell companies. See US submarines, see US high performance aircraft, see US attempting hyper-sonic missiles
The Soviets were pretty good in extracting the riches out of the soil. They did it abundantly in the Ukraine. More specifically, in the Donbas, nowadays provinces of the Russian Federation.
Ascending wedges have always been uber bearish to me. But I can just as well see a bull flag forming in some of those charts. In my view, bond yields don’t obey TA any more than chance.
The MARKETS use simple MATH using FIBS and the entire Markets are controlled by ALGO traders, programmed by willing operators and I can prove it with a 100,000 CHARTS saved over 25 years of training traders using Measured Moves.
Forget the simpleton Wedges and TRENDLINES and MA CROSSES and WAVE COUNTS. THOSE ONLY REFLECT the UNDERLYING control using BOTS. I can prove it but I have tired out teaching others…who will not believe their eyes (about 10% of my 5500 students FINALLY graduate into belief when their eyes no longer lie to them.
but could be like bankruptcy – slow start then fast
projects to 8.75% over next 10 -12 yrs based on 17 year H&S Bottom formation
History has proven Sir James Goldsmith to be, in fact, correct, and Laura Tyson, to be flat out wrong.
yes, but Tyson’s wing recipes are far tastier than Sir James’ buffalo lard in orange juice and strawberry jam with a giant prawn on top.. as I think we can all testify..
Anything can happen, and it probably will.
Don old has managed to put the entire country on his typical bankruptcy plan.he really is a dumb business person as the wharton school stated.
yet he is president, and you are just an AI bot posting on little noticed corner of the internets.. its a funny olde world iddn’t it?
It’s starting to look awfully like a third world country economically.
wonder why so many people are trying to illegally enter this 3rd world nation? This titanic ship floating on a sea of constant gloom, adrift in a sea of migrant boat people scurrying to board this doomed vessel…
the message du jour is still “abandon all hope, ye passengers on this ship of the damned” – I think someones trying to manipulate real estate prices…
So many people of the third world feel familiar in a third world country, even the richest one.