Election Night Confusion
An NBC/WSJ Poll on expected mail-in votes might cause some very misleading if not totally inaccurate reporting on who is in the lead depending on when mail-in votes get counted.
- Supporters of Democratic candidate Joe Biden are significantly more likely than Trump backers to say they plan to vote by mail. Nearly half – 47 percent – say they plan to mail in their ballot, with an additional 21 percent saying they will cast a vote before Election Day at an early in-person voting site. Only about a quarter of Biden voters, 26 percent, plan to vote on Election Day at a polling place.
- In contrast, two-thirds of Trump’s voters — 66 percent — say they will vote in person on Election Day. Just 11 percent say they plan to vote by mail, and 20 percent say they will vote early in person
Weird Consequences
Due to the above, FiveThirtyEight notes the Consequences Might Be Weird.
If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for … well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Biden’s votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although it’s unlikely they’d actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.
Let’s do a quick-and-dirty exercise to show what I mean. In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll overall, Biden led Trump by 9 percentage points among registered voters. But Biden led Trump by 63 points (!) among voters who planned to vote by mail, and Trump led Biden by 33 points among voters who planned to vote in person on Election Day. If this kind of partisan split occurred in every state, Biden would win the mail vote in all 50 states — from Alabama to Wyoming — and Trump would win the Election Day vote in all 50.
Prepare for Trump to Claim Biden Stole the Election
The above scenario in all 50 states isn’t likely, but it is likely in some states.
The election day results could easily swing Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and that could swing the election night apparent winner.
Trump will howl and his supporters will believe him.
Some of my friends believe Trump will refuse to stand down, but I am sure it would not come to that.
A bluff in that direction, however, is another matter.
Chaos could last for days or even weeks in such a scenario with severe consequences on the stock market as well as potential riots which Trump would then try to pin on Biden.
Mish
On Election Night, We Might Not Care Who Won
Has any Presidential election over the last half century really made a meaningful difference, or it is just another rung on the ladder leading us down into a darker and deeper hole?
interesting new poll added today at 538, the Alaska senator, Sullivan, seeking reelection is TIED with the dem challenger Gross. Alaska totally off everyone’s radar because it is reliably red, now is in play at least for the senate seat, and if that one flips the dems will control the senate.
The polls are for idiots. The fact is most conservatives are likely to tell poll takers to take a hike, or deceive them, where most liberals willingly participate. The polls basically are worthless, as was shown in the last election.
Trump is heading for an easy win as the Democrats have effectively shot themselves in the foot by adopting a far left radical platform. Their siding with the terrorists rioters has made them very unpopular with everyone except the far left radicals. The vice presidential candidate in particular was very supportive of the protests / violence. This has had a huge effect on the polling as Trump is gaining popularity as Biden is losing it.
The fact that Biden is hiding in his basement and is afraid to debate is making his position even worse. When the TV adds begin, Trump will eviscerate the democrats who are on the wrong side of main stream America on the current political issues.
If the Democratic party chooses to change its position and criticize the violence and promise to crack down on violence, they will pick up votes, but they will splinter their own party alienating the far left wing which has apparently developed into a major player. No matter what the Democrats do at this point, they have no chance to undo the self inflicted damage they have done to themselves.
Colorado has done mail-in voting for years. In my county it is the default voting method.
But the bigger issue is just why we have to treat election night like a footbaaaaahulllll game and know before we go to bed who won. The founding fathers put the election process in November to give everyone time to tabulate the votes. Plenty of time to figure out who won. Not the most exciting TV for sure, but it’s a political election, not “America’s Got (no) Talent!” And of course the question overarching it all is why are we to the point that the federal elections matter as much as they do, but that’s a whole other rant…
In Diebold We Trust.
Too late. We are already a joke in much of the world.
I requested mail in ballots in MD for my wife and me. Had to give a drivers license number or a state issued ID number. Kind of surprising since the democrats are historically strongly against having to supply a valid ID to vote, because it’s racist, and MD is a heavily democratic state.
Trump will be coronated as emperor in January and the American experiment will be finished. Thank God. The Chinese and Russians will rule the world while America rots. Cursed by God and hated by men.
Any bets on when Mish will switch his support to Trump?
When Antifa/BLM rioting come to his home town?
I’ll put a grand on never if you’re willing to put your money where your mouth is.
why is it easier to vote than to do virtually anything else
even cell phone requires valid ID these days
Who is Diebold (now Premier Election Solutions) voting for??
Who is Russia voting for?
Simple Solution.
Since the ONLY thing that matters is the stock market.
Have the day after election be Trump Day … market gain / loss duly noted.
Have the day after Trump Day be Biden Day … market gain / loss duly noted.
Next POTUS would be hoo does better in market.
The most technologically advanced society in the world may soon be a joke if this thing drags on and the technology we have to prevent such a disaster isn’t used.
Depending on how conscientious the winner is they will likely regret having won and look back and have been pleased not to have ever known.
It really is that bad.
Some people might not want to know, depending on the outcome.
First election in which an uncertain outcome belongs to the strategy in advance … there are thousands of people already getting together to figure out how they can weaponize an uncertain outcome in their favor.
Let’s hear from someone who has participated in mail-in vote-counting in states that use it heavily. What percentage of ballots come in after election day? (I’d expect a low %, and in the morning after, pretty much all are in and countable.)
Several states do mail-in heavily. Given that the phone lines are up between US states, there really isn’t much excuse for states new to high-volume mail-in to screw up. But, then, remember the Iowa fiasco this year?
we’ve been here before. Remember the hanging chad?
I do, I was registered to vote in Florida for the 2000 election, but had just moved to NY in August, too late to register to vote in NY state. So I had requested an absentee ballot before leaving, the week before the election I still had not got my ballot so called the Leon County registrars office, they claimed to have mailed it, and I did finally get it, the day AFTER the election. I could not vote it, it was void because it could not be postmarked on election day. So, I was one of the Gore voters that was not counted that year there, not that I liked Gore, but I am still angry 20 years later not to get my vote. They only had to do that to 537 democrat voters for history to be entirely different.
My decision to vote AGAINST Trump in 2016 was based on a fear that the election would be too close to call, and that some kind of civil unrest might be a problem. It looks much more likely now, of course.
It was a difficult decision at the time. I already disliked Trump, but I despised Clinton just as much. I did what I did to try to help my country, not my personal situation. That’s what I consider patriotic behavior.
For me, this is history repeating itself….except that now it is far more important that the election results not be in question.
I suspect almost everyone who votes here will do so in person, since the timeliness of using mail-in ballots has been questioned. I voted in the primary in person, and I’d rate the risk as extremely low if common sense precautions are used.
I’ve been using mail-in ballots in California for years. YOU VOTED FOR CLINTON? THE DEVIL THAT DESTROYED LIBYA AND SYRIA? Wow.
Absolutely. That was the most appalling display of judicial activism in history. Every court decision, at every level, was politically motivated, and wrong. In the end the election was decided the way it should have been, the way that people voted, but the courts at every level earned a black eye that will last forever.
That’s okay, I’m sure several weeks of constant post-election bickering and uncertainty won’t exacerbate our already alarming political divide.
“already alarming political divide.”
Nothing alarming about it, until “we” are at least a thousand independent nations. The sooner, and more thoroughly, the Juggernaut is smashed into pieces, parted out, and take out back to be disposed of, the better.
Well, everything you have is thanks to the existence for 240 years of the United States of America and saying that you think it should be destroyed rather than FIXED is borderline treason Stuki. I like you and we often agree, but wishing the destruction of America is not something I can or ever will go along with. Change it profoundly yes, but destroy? Never. Get rid of the Fed. Get rid of the electoral college, sure, but you will destroy the USA only after you kill me.
I would agree with that, as long as you can manage to completely change/dispose of the 99% of what is currently attempted passed of as “the USA”, without “destroying the USA.”
I personally suspect, a more viable way of getting that last, worth vile, 1% back, is to start where the founders did: With a tabula rasa. Then arrive at a properly limited Federation from that, since a literal 1000 independent nations may find that they do indeed have something in common after all.
The only thing the splinters would have in common is the need to learn Chinese and russian after they divvy up the North American continent.
We actually are in better shape than you give credit for, there are really good people here in spite of Trump applying that term to mass murderers because they support him. And I think that you get Covid under control and then get rid of the Fed and that is a whole lot of the problem fixed right there. It will take time for the economy to stabilize, but it will no matter what we do or don’t do, if we do nothing it will just keep getting worse till we all either work on the Bezos plantation or the Gates plantation.
If we did not have a scary assed government we could have sensible gun control laws because households would not need an AR 15 in order to get by.
If we had a decent government we would not need to be afraid of the police and their militarized break up of peaceful protesters. They could go back to enforcing laws against CRIMINALS. Which there would be a lot fewer of because the mentally ill and millions in dire poverty would be ended and people in care when that is all we can do.
I agree we need a lot of change, and government has no right to dictate my life or yours such as practiced in the states.
Yesterday I read that California banned all flavorings in tobacco products, one step away now from simply banning all tobacco products which has been the goal for many years. Whether YOU use tobacco or not, no matter how YOU feel about tobacco, YOU do not have a right to make such a decision for others, that is tyranny.
By the same stroke southern red states have no right to tilt their states in favor of a white middle class majority and they do it all the time, both obvious and subtle.
We have a lot of work to do to make America a place to be proud of again, but I have said for DECADES that the far left tilt has been a reaction to not the cause of the theft of democracy and mistreatment of working people in favor of a new oligarchy that has given us the most profound wealth inequality in the history of humanity. Particularly since Nixon, there has been a tit for tat election of leadership that plays an eight year game of we will get you for your eight years of corrupting this nation and their way of getting the last leaders is to make it all even worse to the other side. So we had Obama, now we have a straight up Nazi who thinks murderers are good people. I have known some people from Wisconsin and never suspected that there was such a deep well of racism and hate there. Good thing Wisconsin is not a tourist destination because from what I have seen on TV the last week and a half I would never travel there.
But there is good in most people and it is just under siege. Mostly from working harder and harder for less and less.
And then there is a matter of social ills stemming from things that government has very little to do with. If it were up to me the tender unformed mind of kids would not be exposed to social media. Give a kid a life alert necklace if you fear for their safety, but nobody should own a phone till they are mature enough to handle what is on it. Just like no kid should drive a car till they are mature enough to be trusted with 4000 pounds of metal glass and rubber (well also a couple thousand pounds of plastic these days) propelled by 500 horsepower.
Kids need to attend schools that are safe and actually be made to learn. I am appalled at the level of general knowledge that younger adult have and so no wonder they cannot make good decisions or keep a grip on their impulses. They are like adult infants.
All of this will not be cured by becoming the vassal states of Chinese or russian overlords who will aside from stealing our resources and using Americans as slave labor, would also not be happy till they prove how low we are compared to them. And nothing would stop those totalitarian regimes from traipsing right in if our US government falls. Also, what are you going to do with veterans and people on social security? They are supported by treasury payments, without them they simply would die, there is no room in your new economic law of survival of the fittest. This economic Darwinism would outright kill some 50 million people within a year. Is that nice? Is that what you actually want?
Or weeks, months, or until the Supreme Court decides for us.
I am 100% certain there will not be a certified winner in multiple swing states. Then Trump could begin challenging the election in multiple states which would lead up to the Supreme court. In the end I feel the court would not rule his favor because cases Trump has brought before without merit have been thrown out. We may have to wait until January so the uncertainty could drive the markets and the dollar batty. This is how autocracies start. I have no doubt if we get stuck with Trump in 2021 then Don Jr will run in 2024 and we will get more of the same.
As I point out to Sechel the SCOTUS has zero constitutional role in succession. None. What they did in 2000 was usurp the constitution that defines very clearly what actions and proceedures are to happen in the event a candidate cannot attain the 270 electoral votes to win. We had 4 prior elections where the winner could not get a majority of the electors and thus the selection was thrown to the US House. 2000 was one of those that should have done that as well and that was what guided the Florida courts, and Florida Supreme Court in their decision that the votes MUST be counted. The governor was the GOP candidate’s brother and he as well his entire cabinet should have recused themselves. Instead they ordered the count to be prematurely terminated and his brother named winner contrary to state laws.
It is no different than if he has said okay we counted the first 10 votes and 8 were for my brother so he wins. The state had laws, the counties has state appoved rules, there were processes in place, it was only when the vote recounts saw Bush at one point losing the election there that they decided to shut the counting down with Bush ahead by 0.00009005368% of the total vote. And the election there was documented to be rigged by and for the GOP, even the Madison County elections supervisor (a black woman) had been wiped off the voter rolls and denied a ballot herself. More than 173,000 black voters were arbitrarily not allowewd to vote. Books have been written about all the many ways the GOP cheated in FL that year. And almost none of that could have been don had Bush’s brother not been governor.
Just remember that if it isn’t resolved by January 20th, Pelosi becomes President on the 21st, so I’m sure it will be resolved before that.
Do we know if the new or current representatives would pick the winner ? As I understand it Pelosi would be interim President and Pence would be interim Vice President until a majority of the 50 state Congress houses which currently are 27-23 in favor of Republicans decide the winner.
By the way I have a residence I can use in 2 other states and could change my residence and vote by mail in one of them as I understand. It turns out both states are swing states where my vote will make a difference. I wonder how many others are contemplating this.
By the way, it wouldn’t be hard to do this every 4 years just for the Presidential election. Most states don’t even require a drivers license for residence. The residential requirements are murky in many states. A utility bill with a name on it works in most states. Some states have motor voter and it isn’t impossible to hold multiple drivers licenses from multiple states. Voting by mail can be taken to a whole new level if you have the means and motive to vote in swing states.
“By the way I have a residence I can use in 2 other states and could change my residence and vote by mail in one of them as I understand. It turns out both states are swing states where my vote will make a difference. I wonder how many others are contemplating this.”
IOW, The Fed wins regardless.
Not about you. Just the extremely high, and ever higher, correlation between multiple residences and being on The Fed’s direct welfare roll.
But hey, Black Lives Matter enough that “we” must ensure they don’t have similar opportunity to vote where their vote counts most. It’s what being good, nice-to-our-niggas progressives is all about.
Just shows what a farce American election procedures are — no other jurisdiction is full of such in your face lack of integrity controls.
People contemplating changing their residency to vote in a swing state should be aware that if the state imposes an income tax it will be expecting a tax return from its new resident. Since states can tax the income of residents earned in other states, the voter/taxpayer who changes their residency solely for voting purposes may have a number of unexpected hassles.
But I have no income in that state and never worked a day there. I can file a tax return but they have no jurisdiction.
If you are a resident, they can tax you on income that you have earned anywhere in the world. That’s how Connecticut can tax residents who work in NYC. Those residents get a credit for NY taxes, but it creates a reporting obligation and potential increase in taxes that few will want to hassle with in order to vote in a swing state.
Think about the absurdity of your position. By registering to vote you are claiming under penalty of perjury you are a resident of a state. You are consenting to their jurisdiction by filing the voter registration listing a residence in that state and voting in that state. As someone who talks about Trump “stealing” the election, perhaps voting honestly is the best course of action.
That part about taxing you on income earned elsewhere isn’t true. It depends on if the income is actually earned in that state. California tried to reach into other states years ago and it was struck down. Most states don’t have agreements with one another like New York/NJ/Conn. It is quite easy to change a residence if one is willing.
NIXON now more than ever !
Afraid we will get Grant? Either of them would be less corrupt than Trump and even in their current condition better presidents.
Trump reminds me of nixion
lol, no doubt why I remember that bumper sticker from 1972. I remember one TV add too. A hand sweeping toy ships and planes off a table, describing the defense cuts that would happen if the Dems won. It worked. McGovern got slaughtered.