Ignore the denials, Boris Johnson made significant progress in negotiations with the EU and Ireland.
Here are a few details of Johsnon’s proposal from the Guardian Live Blog.
Johnson’s plan essentially replaces a UK-wide backstop with a Northern Ireland (NI) only backstop (which is what was originally planned before May proposed the UK-wide one to satisfy the DUP). Under May’s plan the whole of the UK would have stayed in the customs union, and NI would also have stayed bound by some single market (regulatory) rules. Johnson has reverted to a NI-only model, with two features: Northern Ireland staying in an all-island regulatory zone for goods, meaning a regulatory border down the Irish Sea; but Northern Ireland staying in UK customs territory, meaning a customs border in Ireland.
Frosty Reception
The Guardian says Johnson’s plan received a frosty reception.
And Ireland’s Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar says Johnsosn plans ‘do not fully meet agreed objectives’.
Breakthrough? Yes
Not only is Varadkar ready for more talks, so is Juncker.
Juncker Open to Discuss
Here is a snip from Juncker’s Statement.
President Juncker welcomed Prime Minister Johnson’s determination to advance the talks ahead of the October European Council and make progress towards a deal. He acknowledged the positive advances, notably with regards to the full regulatory alignment for all goods and the control of goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain. However, the President also noted that there are still some problematic points that will need further work in the coming days, notably with regards to the governance of the backstop. The delicate balance struck by the Good Friday Agreement must be preserved. Another concern that needs to be addressed are the substantive customs rules. He also stressed that we must have a legally operational solution that meets all the objectives of the backstop: preventing a hard border, preserving North-South cooperation and the all-island economy, and protecting the EU’s Single Market and Ireland’s place in it.
No Deal Scam
Some label the effort as a “no deal scam”
But …
DUP on Board
Solid majority?
Key Idea
Labour Support
Makings of a Deal
If the DUP, Tory Brexiteers, Tory regulars, and a handful of Laboiur MPs are on board, this will fly easily.
Recall that Theresa May’s third reading failed by only 5 votes.
Of course, for a deal to fly, the EU needs to go along.
But if Ireland agrees, so will the EU, or there will be No Deal.
Ireland Must Give
Some label Johnson’s tactics as “blackmailing” Ireland.
Call it what you like, but as I said two days ago, Ireland’s Brexit Position is Logically and Legally Impossible.
Either Ireland agrees to something or there is increasing likelihood of No Deal in which Ireland will be forced to put border controls on its side only.
Meanwhile …
Parliament Prorogued Again
Johnson intends to request that the current session of Parliament be prorogued from the evening of Tuesday 8 October, with a Queen’s Speech on Monday 14 October.
All that court action for what?
It looks to me like it helped Johnson.
Labour Bounce is Over
Despite an allegedly amazing speech by Jeremy Corbyn at the Labour Party conference, the Labour bounce lasted all of one day, assuming it happened at all.
Benn Bill
The Benn Bill says Johnson must ask for an extension. Johnson says he won’t. He also says he will comply with the law.
The bill proponents say the bill is watertight. Can both sides be correct?
Possibly. One way would be if Johnson can get the EU to say this is the final deal, and there will be no more extensions.
The irony in this madness is that far from taking No Deal off the table, the Benn bill increased the odds of No Deal.
Labour’s position is to negotiate a deal and then hold a referendum. That can’t possibly sit well with the EU.
Everyone is tired of referendums, except it seems for Labour.
Corbyn Caretaker Government Unlikely
The Liberal Democrats have repeatedly ruled out supporting Jeremy Corbyn as leader of a caretaker government. Without their support Corbyn does not have the votes to head up a caretaker government.
And Corbyn refuses to back anyone else. Without Labour votes there is again no majority.
This is crucial. Parliament can oust Johnson, but if it cannot agree on a new PM to seek an extension, there will not be an extension if Johnson has a way around Benn or if the EU refuses to extend.
Grounds for a Deal
- If there are elections, Johnson rates to get a huge majority. In that case, No Deal happens, extension or not.
- The EU can see the polls too. They are very aware of them.
- Germany is in shambles. The entire Eurozone is on the cusp of recession if not in recession.
- And to top it off, Trump just won a case against Airbus and will now go ahead with tariffs.
- The EU will not breach certain red lines but neither will Johnson.
The makings of a fair deal are right there in those five points.
Political Reality
- The UK and the EU took small steps towards each other. This is the first time in three years that has happened.
- Don’t underestimate or overestimate what that means. There are dozens of ways a deal can collapse, but as long as the Liberal Democrats hold their ground, odds favor a deal or an election rather than another delay or extension or a long-duration caretaker government.
- Ignore the chatter. The Liberal Democrat’s primary goal is not really to win Brexit cancellation, but to pick up a huge number of Labour seats.
- If it negotiations collapse, the most likely result given election math is a Johnson victory and No Deal at all.
- Finally, the Liberal Democrats have a current hold on all the hard Remainers. Like Johnson, they want elections. The kicker is that the Liberal Democrats want an election before Brexit is settled. Remain goes away as an issue in the event of a deal.
Ponder that last point. The Liberal Democrats are desperate for an election but it has to be before Brexit is settled. To get one, they need to defeat a Johnson deal or somehow trigger an election before this is settled.
If the Liberal Democrats can do the latter, prepare for a Labour slaughter and a No Deal Brexit.
There is no advantage for the Liberal Democrats to support a caretaker government under Corbyn or any caretaker government at all that does not force elections by January.
This diminishes the odds but does not entirely rule out a lengthy caretaker government with Brexit suspended.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Oh dear.
This absurd business of democracy and voting has gone on much too far. They get it wrong every time now. It should have been done away with a long time ago.
It is ridiculous that the ERG supports this. It would be interesting to see the actual vote when Farage condemns the entire Tory party for betrayal. Easily and cheaply. 🙂 However, I doubt that we will come to see this because the EU can still shoot down the whole thing. They are playing polite and watching the time now.
As for the LibDems, yes, they have good poll numbers at the moment. Very good numbers. But in practice, they have these numbers only because of Brexit. They cannot afford to lose Brexit because they have very little else. On the other hand, Brexit is a torture for Corbyn. A good case can be made that the referendum was invented to torture him in the first place… If a no deal Brexit happens on October 31, fence-sitter Corbyn could blame everyone else and proceed with his domestic agenda immediately. The LibDems? They were the extreme Remain party and they could not get behind an interim PM for a week. Total collapse.
Everything stands behind Corbyn in this little short-term game. The number of MPs, the Leader of the Opposition title, the moderate fence-sitter position. On the other hand, LibDems can win much more than an interim PM nomination if they make a tactical retreat now. I am not happy with the thought but it is probably baked into the cake.
It’ll be interesting to see how the EU and anti-Democrat MPs try to spin rejecting this, particularly if they then bypass Johnson to grant an extension. The longer this goes on, the more obvious their collusion becomes and the more hated they will be. I’m a hardcore Brexiteer and I almost want them to do this, just to see what happens.
The remainers position is untenable and, judging by the tantrums in parliament recently, they know it.
Theresa May lost something by 5 votes what was it?
I think Leicestersq has theanswer above.
I hope he gets over the brexit line and then he will become one of the greatest prime minister. Everyone will then quiten down
Not necessarily. It will depend on how things evolve in the years after Brexit. If the UK splits up and the economy is in the tank the PM’s reputation will not be favourable. If the UK stays intact and the economy is strong he will be a hero.
If Johnson delivers a no deal brexit and it turns out being a huge boon to the UK economy pushing the country away from a European wide recession. They will put his bronze statue right next to Cromwells outside of Westmister palace.
Correct. But the reverse is also true. If Johnson delivers a Brexit that leads to a breakup of the UK and an economic nightmare his reputation will be mud.
The point is that just delivering Brexit alone means nothing. The reputation will be built upon what the results of said Brexit turn out to be.
” Parliament can oust Johnson, but if it cannot agree on a new PM to seek an extension,”
I would add that Johnson’s government can not be replaced unless Labor and the Lib Dem have support of the 21 or so rebel Tories. I’m sure Johnson has made some deal with them, like, back my plan and I’ll let you stand for election in your respective constituencies.
No, Ireland has very little incentive to compromise. A no deal scenario suits Ireland very well since it would very likely lead to a break up of the UK and the unification of Ireland. Polls already show that anti-Brexit support is growing in northern Ireland. With a no deal situation and a Scottish secession a plebiscite on Irish unification will pretty much be inevitable.
Why bend a finger to help make Brexit work when the political chaos of a no deal exit serves Ireland’s interests?
Economic collapse isn’t in Irelands interest, and trying to govern a territory where half of the population is both armed and less than thrilled at being governed from Dublin certainly isn’t. Even if it were a remote possibility. Which it isn’t.
Hahaha, I definitely admire your courage in trying to predict a Brexit outcome Mish, but I don’t share your optimism.
This definitely sounds like a better deal than Theresa May’s deal. Most importantly, Britain keeps its sovereignty. Her deal lost by only 5 votes—if the EU agrees to a deal like this, it will pass parliament.
May lost the third and last vote by 58 votes. I don’t know where Mish gets 5.
Wasnt there a vote on a Hard Brexit that lost by just 5 votes I think. It was close, we were almost free.
I stand corrected, thanks
Once again the British press covers itself in glory not. They are all blathering on about will the deal pass parliament, no one is asking whether the other side will agree. I will make three points. 1) There is no Stormont Assembly at the moment. 2) Regulatory alignment is the sine qua non of goods entering the EU. Being aligned does not equate to frictionless trade at the border. Frictionless trade only applies if you are a member of the EU. The liars two border solution does not address this problem. 3) The liar is playing fast and loose with the unity of the UK. If Ulster can have a special place in the UK why not Scotland? This proposed deal raises more questions than it answers.
Liar liar liar…
Get it right
True liars are the remainers.
They talk about not wanting no deal. What they really want is no brexit
They talk about democratic rights. Ha ha 2016 forgotten
They are the true liars.
So should get this right and address correct people as liars.
Once bojo gets this brexit over the line , he will be prove to be one of the greatest pm of this country
I presume you are followed everywhere by men in flapping white coats.
White coat green coat yellow coat whatever they don’t call non liars liar
The liar was fired from his fist job because he made up quotes. He was fired from his Tory front bench job for lying to the then leader of the Tory party Michael Howard. He has been called a liar in print by the following Tories, Mathew Paris-Spector magazine, Simon Heffer-New Statesman magazine. He has been called out for lying by various politicians, outside of parliament and thus not being able to claim Parliamentary immunity from prosecution. At no time has the liar pursued anyone in the courts for libel or slander. He has not done so because any defendant would plead truth and the liar cannot gainsay that. It is a fact, the man is a liar. Why are you blind to the fact that the Prime Minister of the UK is a serial, inveterate and intolerable liar?
cannot gainsay
I wouldn’t bite at ARs insult of the PM DTE, they’re just his own way of shelving having to consider the position encompassed by BJ by attaching a personal dismissal of his character to a strawman argument he is happy to draw anyone into. It’s very small minded and shows his immaturity as well as a vindictive nature. All you are doing by questioning him is giving him the opportunity to repeat himself, to himself, which he seems to enjoy doing. Not worth giving him the satisfaction … on second thoughts, it will keep him distracted and self satisfied. We’re allowed to smile to ourselves over the likes are we not ?
I do not insult the liar. I report truth. Cut the psycho babble.
True. One can make ones point without being rude. Also some people will never learn. Best to leave them alone
I am not sure why you think that NI will leave the UK. From what I can tell, a solid majority of the Catholic community there prefer being in the UK rather than a Unified Ireland.
But say you are correct, and that this will mean NI leaves the UK and joins a united Ireland. Isnt that a good outcome as well? The people of NI determine what they want, it solves the Irish question, those of us here in the rest of the UK will wish the people well on their new adventure. I dont understand what the problem is?
Why have you brought this up? It is clear that demographics will deliver a United Ireland within 15 years. The no-plan brexiteers have merely speeded this up.
It looks like the same “cult of personality” issues exist across the pond. Bringing personal stuff into policy discussions ruins credibility
It is more that you cannot separate the personality from the policy in both our cases. For instance, Mr Trump keeps on winning in his trade negotiations. He has a similar reputation to our liar. Our liar has the problem that he is dealing with people who don’t believe a word he says. This is a fatal quality in a negotiator. Mr Trump has a similar problem. Only a fool would do business with him. When you have a problem like these two then all the old rules no longer apply.
“…small steps toward each other..” can chew up a large amount of time.
….and all that time, the head clowns, on all sides, get to stay in the limelight and feign great importance…