How Many Set to Lose $600 Checks?
- CNBC says More than 25 million Americans are set to lose the $600 unemployment boost next week
- The Century Foundation says More than 25 Million Americans Are About to Lose an Essential $600-a-Week Unemployment Insurance Benefit
- Forbes says “some 25 million unemployed workers are finishing the last week of the expanded federal unemployment benefits and will soon only receive state unemployment benefits, which average $378 per week.”
Guidelines
To determine a better number, let’s review the Department of Labor Guidelines.
Programs which entitle an individual to receive FPUC. This program provides an
additional $600 per week to individuals who are collecting regular UC (including Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) and Unemployment Compensation for Ex-Servicemembers (UCX)), as well as the following unemployment compensation programs:
- Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC)
- Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)
- Extended Benefits (EB)
- Short-Time Compensation (STC)
- Trade Readjustment Allowances (TRA)
- Disaster Unemployment Assistance (DUA)
- Payments under the Self-Employment Assistance (SEA) program
Persons Claiming Benefits in All Programs
Based on all the above table (which lags state claims by 2 weeks), over 30 million have federal unemployment benefits that are about to expire.
My lead chart uses that data. Continued state claims (Regular State in the above table) are a subset.
Continued State Claims
The above chart is seasonally adjusted. The All Continued claims table and my lead chart are not seasonally adjusted.
Double Counting?
Earlier today I fielded a question regarding double counting. The New York Times made the same claim in How many are collecting unemployment benefits? It’s hard to say.
The Labor Department says that as of late June — the most recent period measured — an additional 14 million people were tapping into Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program to aid freelancers, the self-employed and others ordinarily ineligible for state jobless benefits. But those numbers have been plagued by double-counting and other issues, and most economists think the true number is probably lower.
New York Times Confuses Two Issues
- How many are getting unemployment checks
- How many are actually unemployed
Everyone in any unemployment program gets a weekly check of $600.
Confusion stems from the fact that not everyone collecting unemployment benefits is unemployed. But there is no double counting.
PUA FAQ
Let’s dive into the PUA FAQ for details.
You may qualify for PUA benefits if you are unemployed, partially unemployed, unable to work, or unavailable to work due to a COVID-19-related reason and you meet one of the following:
- You are a business owner, self-employed worker, independent contractor, or gig worker and are not participating in the UI Elective Coverage program. You will be able to indicate if you have no employment wages (for example, you did not receive a W-2), to apply for the PUA program (which cannot be used for any other purpose). However, you can file a regular Unemployment Insurance (UI) claim if you believe you were misclassified and have wages from an employer.
- You don’t have sufficient work history. This generally means you don’t have enough wages reported as an employee during the last 18 months for a regular UI claim. This could be the case if you are self-employed or an independent contractor, or if you are an employee with insufficient earnings. To qualify for PUA based on insufficient work history, you must have been recently employed, which could be satisfied if you had an offer to start working on a specific date but were unable to start due to a COVID-19-related reason.
If you qualify for unemployment at the state level, you file at the state level. There is no way around it.
People “partially unemployed” as well as other individuals who do not qualify for state programs can apply for PUA.
That does not double count anything but it does overestimate the “official” unemployment rate.
Total Number of Unemployed
The total number of unemployed is somewhere between the state number (17.3 million) and the all claims number (31.8 million).
Recall that if you work as few as 1 hour, you are considered “employed”.
As a practical matter, the official unemployment rate is dramatically understated.
White House, Senate GOP Weigh Interim Unemployment Aid Extension
Bloomberg reports White House, Senate GOP Weigh Interim Unemployment Aid Extension.
Trump administration officials and Senate Republicans are discussing a short-term extension of unemployment insurance as lawmakers and the White House appear unlikely to reach a broader stimulus deal before the benefits lapse.
Some Republican aides on Capitol Hill cast doubt on its chances of succeeding. Several Republicans didn’t support the original $600-a-week unemployment insurance provided under the Cares Act. And any extension would require votes from Democrats, who want the entire program renewed. The payments expire at the end of July.
“Most of us agree that there needs to be something in its place, and most of us also agree that the $600 flat amount for every worker is not a good idea going forward because it’s a disincentive to get back to work,” Portman said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Wednesday.
Not all Senate Republicans are aware of discussions of a side deal to avoid a lapse in unemployment insurance. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida said he hadn’t heard of the idea but would consider it if there is no stimulus deal by the first week of August.
Expiring Benefit Notes
If not extended, this will be a big hit to the incomes of millions.
Republicans, especially Trump, do not want to extend the $600 benefit because many make more being unemployed than they did working.
This is what the bickering is all about.
Calendar Quirk
The last full week in July ends Saturday July 25 for most state UI programs. And that is when the benefits expire, not July 31.
Rubio proposes taking up the lapse in insurance “by the first week in August.”
That would be too late.
Unemployment Claims Rise for the First Time in 4 Months
Initial claims rose from 1.307 million to 1.416 million, an increase of 109,000. This was the first rise in 16 weeks.
It’s also a signal that the jobs recovery may be over due to states backtracking on opening up.
For details and further discussion, please see Unemployment Claims Rise for the First Time in 4 Months
Mish
Once hospitals across many States are blown out there will be no option but to fully shut down again in those States. Unemployment will skyrocket. We are maybe 8 To 10 weeks away. This is so obvious in the data. Some States are fine but many large ones will bring us down. I marvel at the persistent deniers of this inevitable outcome.
You have to love this Republican government…..
Over 30,000,000 unemployed, unemployment benefits ending, and the Senate majority leader says it could weeks to pass the next stimulus package. What the hell!!!
We have been living with this virus since February, we know testing is the key to getting it under control (despite what our clueless president believes) and we are still living with testing shortages. What the hell!!!!
This has to be the most incompetent elected US government ever. Much like Nero fiddling while Rome burned. How anyone can defend the Republicans response to this Covid outbreak is beyond me. Must be some mighty powerful Kool Aid!!!!!
The end game is to create a government budget crises. Then they will pass a so called “wealth tax” which will basically turn the US into a totalitarian dictatorship.
They should never have gotten anything to begin with. It is immoral to rob one group of people to give to another. It is not a power that was given Congress in the Constitution. The government acts criminally…..
21 thousand jobs lost at Schlumberger.
32 million sheeps don’t amount to anything.
$72,000,000,000 coming out of the economy every 28 days. That is about 3.5% of gdp. It is going to be ugly.
That’s what I said. I don’t think people who are against it or think they are secure are going to be too happy when the ripple effects start to show up. It’s what’s been propping up what’s left of the economy. Not looking good. Starting to look like life in the US is about to take yet another step or 2 down. At least the stock market is doing good lol.
Except for the politicians against it as they are already filthy rich.
Because they made the right decisions in the stock market.
In Picking Up Work Here and There, Many Miss Out on Unemployment Check
For millions of people, making a living is a cobbled-together proposition. That leaves a hole in the safety net when things turn bad.
July 23, 2020
corrected – I said $600 a week in one spot and month in another.
Week is correct
This is a far bigger deal than I thought.
I think the $600 also works for IC’s who don’t qualify for regular state unemployment, like UberLlyft drivers and other Gig workers. They are up the creek w/o the proverbial paddle if the $600 weekly program doesn’t get extended.
Mish, I know it seems hard to believe, but my understanding is it is $600 per week extra plus state benefits.
“All unemployed workers to receive an extra $600 a week for up to six months”
Yes just corrected – I said week in one spot and month in another. This is a far bigger deal than I thought.
I know a guy who made 80k this month working 5 jobs as a programmer. Hes not counted as employed 5 times. This is the strangest economy ever.
He is counted as employed only once. However it is possible he is counted 5 times in the Establishment survey.
What kind of programming gigs is that??
Ruby on Rails.
Yikes. If people are rioting now, wait till they lose their federal supplement.
I am self-employed and collecting the FED PUA 600 + 125 weekly. I am grateful for it. But I am also an animal. What does that mean ?
Animals only take what they need. When they gorge it’s usually because they might not find food again for a while. So, I don’t buy shiite i don’t need and am content with the food and shelter I have.
But if many Americans were like me, this would be a problem for the American economy, which is built on selling us shiite we don’t need. What % of the American economy is based on “stuff” you don’t really need ?
On the other hand, If you’re fat, insecure, ignorant, narcissistic enough to bling out your instagram lifestyle … don’t come rolling up to me for Chipotle Guacamole money fatty. Im not going to facilitate your risky spending habits.
Our industrialized production methods creating havoc with ecosystems will create more viruses. This Pandemic will permanently alter people’s spending habits and reset budget thermostats … being “miserly” or efficient will become more acceptable if not necessary.
RE: “But if many Americans were like me, this would be a problem for the American economy, which is built on selling us shiite we don’t need. What % of the American economy is based on “stuff” you don’t really need ?”
If the vast majority of Americans chose to live within their means, even live below their means in just buying things they really need for the most part, occasionally spending within their means to get things they want but do not need, and NEVER spending above their means simply to get things they WANT, the economy would collapse.
In effect, the entire American economy has long been in a massive spending bubble for decades, its people totally acceding to the false notion that “greed is good”.
Paying people more on unemployment is a bad idea. Printing money just to prop up the stock market is a very bad idea. They should fix that first.
This. Can’t believe that Home of the Brave is really just Home of the Sheep.
good and bad are just labels. don’t judge, just observe.
I’m really worried how this is going to shake out. This can be a great country that offers a very high standard of living and a lot of professional opportunities (usually). But it also has problems – the corrupt and warped minds that run things, the gross inequality, and the consequent anger that has been building for years (all over the country).
I’ll just say it – I think there would be a lot less anger/violence/fear here if people didn’t wake up every day with the knowledge that if you don’t earn, you die. Not immediately, there are programs, but ultimately your lack of funds will kill you.
Look into what happened in Spain during the housing crisis. Suicide directly linked to housing insecurity. They were able to increase general happiness and reduce suicide by protecting people from evictions. Economics aside, having an actual safety net would allow for more risks to be taken, more entrepreneurship. And more happiness for the less bold among us.
The rhetoric between us and China is getting pretty nasty on top of it all I hope that’s not a plan to revive us. Whatever is left that is.
Actually, studies have been done that show when people are held accountable for their own well-being, they step up to the responsibility. Government handouts discourage creating personal emergency funds.
That’s probably true, and a valid point. Now we just need to engineer that mindset into the public!
Well being and survival are different things.
Can you cite some examples please?
Sorry guys…its too late. You cant take it back. More than half the kids at local school get free breakfast and lunch. Parents wont pack them…as the sheep get led down a dangerous path.
Cant starve the children…cant take it back.
“if you don’t earn, you die” Which is the state of nature. Civilization makes it much much easier to earn, but the present turning away from the American Enlightenment is a step away from civilization. Everyone on here is wondering how to hang onto their property in the coming years. This should not even be a question, but we don’t have governments which consistently protect property rights.
“This should not even be a question, but we don’t have governments which consistently protect property rights.”
They should consistently make some reasonable effort to help you protect it. But only after you, yourself, commit to do the lion’s share.
Running a protection racket, is expensive. Someone has to pay for it. Pretending it is free, doesn’t make it so. All that does, is provide excuses for those best connected, to effectively force the cost onto others.
If you want government to protect your land claim, first you have to fence it, lock it, mark it as private, and then pay government to take over from there. Not just say “it’s government’s job” and “I’m just going to sit here idly claiming it as mine without making any effort.” Someone has to pay for it. It’s certainly noone else’s duty but yours.
Ditto if you want protection against rape: Don’t dress up as a prostitute, be careful where you go and with whom, and arm your darned self (it’s not by mere happenstance that “All Men Were Created Equal” and “Freedom and Liberty” first became realistic political aspirations with the advent of individual-sized firearms….). That’s not excusing rapists. Just pointing out that the fact that rapists are bad, does not excuse anyone else from imposing unnecessary costs on those who help pay to protect you from them.
And ditto patent protections: Make them narrow as heck, and pay government to protect them, unless you want to run around the world doing it yourself with your firearm.
Etc., etc.
Our handling of the pandemic has been a monumental gift to China as they seek to expand world influence.
Isnt 30 million people at 600 equate to 18 billion per week? Asides the suffering, what will happen when nearly 100billion a month is yanked away? Do they really think this joke economy is going to stand up to that? Steve munchass went one step further than the already disastrous idea they had yesterday of drawing down the 600 to 100 and announced today the boost would amount to 70% of your previous wage. This is a complete affront and play on words. For someone making 500 per week at the job and 300 unemployment benefits you would get around 30 per week. lol!! Some people may acutally fall into the negative does that mean they have to pay the govt? I cant imagine whats going to happen to millions of people. We’re going down in flames.
Maybe I’m a minority, which is why this is always ignored, but I lost my job and get the $600 and it’s still less than my prior paycheck. It’s even less than 70% than my paycheck. Of course, I’m a saver. I don’t need more
But now they will give me more and give poor people less.
For you yes, for the majority they will get screwed royal.
Policy really should be written by smarter people.
Policies are not written by smarter people because if they are smarter than the current policy makers they work for someone other than government.
I support giving people money to live, but people getting more than what they would normally get is also an insult to people who got paycuts, etc.
Also seems like people are electing to not pay rent and still spend on clothes, etc. WTF. If they are not paying rent, they should be saving the money for rainy days ahead.
This is the part of human nature that erodes any political or economic system. People can’t be satisfied that everybody’s getting fed despite the turmoil, and are all about grabbing more for themselves or complaining that they can’t.
It’s basic animal instinct, and at least 30% of us are completely ruled by it.
I suspect the reason it was done this way is that there was no time to develop a system of means testing.
It will be extended indefinitely! It is only money and helps the stock market! /s But … why pay people more then they made working?
you nailed it Silver
I agree. 30 years ago I made $10.85 / hour working for Fedex at hub plus full benefits. I would venture a guess Fedex does not start people off at much more than that today.
So, Congress could taper the $600 benefit.
Make it lower by $50/week. Gone in 3 months.
See if “not giving the lazy bums any money” makes people “get off their fat asses and find jobs”.
Why can’t politicians think about “at the margin”?
The asteroid is about to enter the atmosphere…
And if that doesn’t work, the real thing, Apophis will. April 13th, 2029. weeeee
VVVVVV
That’s more or less what I expect the economy to look like for the rest of my life (I’m 36).
Me too. Thank god im older than you. First time I ever said that.
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