Without a Deal 12 Million Will Soon Lose All Unemployment Benefits

Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation

PEUC claims come into play after someone exhausts all their regular state unemployment benefits. 

Benefits Rapidly Expiring

My chart above is modified from CBPP Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Policy Basics: How Many Weeks of Unemployment Compensation Are Available?

Where I show two numbers, the first number is regular state unemployment insurance and the second number (if present) represents extended benefits.

Key Points

  1. Most states offer at least 26 weeks of unemployment insurance plus 13 or more weeks of extended benefits. Some states offer more. States offering 30 or fewer weeks are noted.
  2. A Federal pandemic PEUC (Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation) program kicks in after regular state programs expire. PEUC provides 13 weeks of compensation at the paid state level but the money comes from the federal government. Every state participates in PEUC. It kicks in before extended benefits.
  3. Persons not eligible for state claims can file for the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program. PUA covers gig workers and self-employed workers who are not covered by state programs. It also covers part-time workers. PUA is rife with fraud and terrible reporting.
  4. After PEUC expires, most but not all states have Extended Benefit programs also paid by the federal government but not every state is in the program. 

Week 35 of Pandemic Unemployment Spike

Unemployment Math

  • Unemployment spiked on March 21.
  • We are in week 35 of the pandemic.
  • The federal government provides 13 weeks of unemployment insurance to all states.
  • 35 – 13 = 22.

If you lost your job early in any state that provides 22 or less weeks of state + extended benefits, then you have exhausted all of your state benefits and all of your PEUC benefits. 

Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, North Carolina ,Missouri and Idaho are all in that group. 

PUA Claims

PUA Rules

Please consider the Justia report on Coronavirus and Unemployment Benefits: 50-State Resources.

The PUA benefit amount is distinct from the standard unemployment benefit amount listed for each state. It cannot exceed the maximum weekly unemployment benefit in the claimant’s state, and the minimum amount is half of the applicable state’s average weekly unemployment benefit amount.

States With Expired or Expiring Programs

  • Alabama: Standard Benefit Amount: $45 – $275 per week
  • Arkansas: Standard Benefit Amount: $81 – $451 per week
  • Florida: Standard Benefit Amount: $32 – $275 per week
  • North Carolina: Standard Benefit Amount: $15 – $350 per week
  • Missouri: Standard Benefit Amount: $35 – $320 per week
  • Idaho: Standard Benefit Amount: $72 – $448 per week

Those who expired all of their state benefits will get no more than the listed maximums. The minimum is a mere 50% of the state average.

Massachusetts and Washington provide the highest benefits with maximums over $800.

Five states (Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, and Tennessee) have a maximum weekly benefit under $300.

Mississippi was dead last at $235 per week.

12 Million Face Unemployment Benefit Cliff On December 26

The Century Foundation reports 12 Million Workers Facing Jobless Benefit Cliff on December 26

  • Based on the number of people already on federal and state benefits, we estimate that 12 million workers will be on one of the two main CARES Act programs—PUA and PEUC—when funding expires on December 26.
  • An estimated 4.6 million workers will see their PEUC benefits prematurely expire on December 26. Moreover, an additional 3.5 million will have already run out of PEUC benefits before the December 26 cutoff.
  • An estimated 7.3 million workers will see their PUA benefits expire on December 26, and 945,000 will run out of PUA before December. 
  • A total of more than 16 million workers will have lost CARES Act benefits by the end of the year. 

Those estimate coincide with my analysis above. 

But note that that many in Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, and Tennessee are already over the cliff. 

Unless there is a deal, about 12 million people will lose all their unemployment benefits in December.

Bankruptcies, evictions, and foreclosures will soar.

I expect a deal, but it will not be the all encompassing deal that Democrats want.

Mish

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35 Comments
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Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
5 years ago

Maybe McConnell is angling for a bill that allows cities and states to declare bankruptcy. That would be the ideal situation since defaulting on the national debt would force the US to give up its control over the financial world through the US dollar.

Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple
5 years ago

Look at the Kyle kid who bought the AR-15 with stimulus money and then went out and ruined two other people’s lives and their families lives.

Fify

ajc1970
ajc1970
5 years ago
Reply to  Mr. Purple

That kid shouldn’t have been there. And shouldn’t have access to firearms. Shame on his mom for bringing him and his friend for shadow-purchasing the rifle (his friend now charged with 2 felonies — deservedly so).

However, I have zero sympathy for the 3 people he shot — all attacking him, all with criminal records, mostly for sexual assault of minors. Attack a person with a gun, expect to get shot.

Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple
5 years ago
Reply to  ajc1970

Have a nice life bro.

ajc1970
ajc1970
5 years ago
Reply to  Mr. Purple

I’ll try.

Thanks for caring.

For a moment I thought you only cared about the kiddie rapists.

Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple
5 years ago
Reply to  ajc1970

Leave your dad out of this.

Carl_R
Carl_R
5 years ago
Reply to  ajc1970

It remains to be seen what happens in his court case. I think it’s likely he would be acquitted on a conventional murder/manslaughter charge due to self-defense, but it’s quite possible he might be convicted on a felony murder basis (i.e. if it was a felony for him to have a gun there, he is accountable for the consequences, even if he personally did nothing wrong).

Let’s let the wheels of justice turn, and see where we end up.

silverdog148
silverdog148
5 years ago

This is going to get interesting as Trump is in “burn it down” mode given the election loss. It’s going to get dicey for the Republicans as without hundreds of billions in government paper supporting the economy, a bunch of “structural” supports are going to start showing stress.

It’s a good questions as to whether Trump supporters even care about this as they seem to be in “burn it down” mode also, be careful what you wish for. Look at the Kyle kid who bought the AR-15 with stimulus money and then went out and ruined his life no matter what way the courts decide, a lot of people getting caught up in social media echo chambers, not realizing the real world outside of the chamber has it’s own reality. When both come in contact like they did with the Kyle kid it’s going to be an ugly result and nobody wins in that scenario.

Johnson1
Johnson1
5 years ago
Reply to  silverdog148

I think burn it down is a media misinformation event. I am not saying it is not true but I would like to see some proof.

Spot on with the social media echo chambers. Covid has made it even worse. Almost all sites pick and choose pieces of information to support their opinion. ZeroHedge can take what I saw as a good bullish stock report and cut pieces out of it to make it doom and gloom. Almost nobody prints both sides of the argument. I went to CNN a few minutes ago and 50% of the 30 headlines were … Trump this and Trump that making everything sound dire. I bet in 3 months we will find out almost everything they said today is false but everyone will forget.

silverdog148
silverdog148
5 years ago
Reply to  Johnson1

Yeah that’s why I said it “seems” on the part of Trump supporters, the Trump supporters when questioned logically at least the ones I know would agree “burn it down” is not good and would be against it, but then again these social media rachet effects are not logical and as can be seen with the Kyle kid or the Pizzagate guy , once the echo chamber is pierced they turn bad real quick. I foresee social media regulation in the future but the horse has left the barn at this point. One of my best friends was in this bubble back during the protests/looting and he was of the opinion they should all be shot up, not until I challenged him and went piece by piece did he agree looting/physical theft was not enough to sentence someone to death on the spot.

-I’m not a Trump or Biden supporter.

Johnson1
Johnson1
5 years ago

Missouri’s unemployment rate is pretty low. It is at 4.9%. Down from 10% during the lockdown. It was 4% in March pre covid. So the good thing is that there are not that many needing assistance than normally. Typically range over the past 6 years in the 4% to 6% range. So definitely in normal range.

Rocky Raccoon
Rocky Raccoon
5 years ago
Reply to  Johnson1

The increase in homelessness that I see in Missouri cities like Springfield is astounding.

Johnson1
Johnson1
5 years ago

Since 2008, there has been a total of $36 Trillion in bailouts. Obama benefited from $32 trillion or about $4 trillion per year. Trump received $3 trillion for COVID, so about $1 Trillion per year.

I wonder how much Biden will get?

njbr
njbr
5 years ago
Reply to  Johnson1

The Republicans were scared shitless of the collapse of the US financial system that was impending with the Bush debacle.

They responded to save the banksters.

The Republicans don’t care about the virus debacle under Trump.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
5 years ago

Ivanka Trump Praises Her Dad for Vaccine Research Started Under Obama

So what exactly was Ivanka talking about? It turns out that Moderna did get started on its COVID vaccine on January 13, two days after China released the virus’ genetic sequence. A document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission explains that on that date, the company’s researchers “finalized the sequence for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine” and it “mobilized toward clinical manufacture.” That step was taken in collaboration with the Vaccine Research Center, which is under the National Institutes for Health (NIH). Even if Trump wasn’t personally involved, can’t he take credit for his administration’s role in this moment?

It’s not that simple. Moderna’s partnership with the feds to develop messenger RNA technology, which its coronavirus vaccine is based on, began long before the novel coronavirus flared up. The Pentagon funded the company’s mRNA research in 2013, and the federal government gave it $125 million to develop a mRNA-based Zika vaccine in 2016. Its COVID-related work on January 13 appears to have been completed under an already existing research agreement with the NIH, according to a review by the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen.

In short, Trump didn’t swoop in to launch the Moderna-NIH COVID vaccine partnership. Rather, his administration piggybacked on an ongoing collaboration whose initial agreements were signed in—checking the fine print—November 2015. Maybe Ivanka should have added, “Thanks, Obama.”

Anda
Anda
5 years ago

EU has ordered 1 bn (billion) shots and close to ordering 400 mn more from Mod.

“Así, ha precisado que la UE ha firmado ya tres contratos con las farmacéuticas AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Janssen y BioNTech/Pfizer por mil millones de dosis ampliables; es inminente la firma con CureVac y están muy avanzadas las negociaciones con Moderna por otras 400 millones de vacunas adicionales.”
ElMundo

Not expecting all of them to work ? That is three shots per person for the whole population of EU. :/

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
5 years ago

Trump’s vaccine team will not brief Biden administration – U.S senators

Carl_R
Carl_R
5 years ago

Clearly the people on Trump’s team were incompetent, so a fresh start may be better anyway.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
5 years ago

Kyle Rittenhouse used his COVID check to buy the AR-15 knockoff he took to Kenosha…I wonder how many people bought guns with money that was intended to put food on the table for families?

Doug78
Doug78
5 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

It’s highly logical. There was a worldwide pandemic with no cure, looting and chaos in the streets, ineffective government and about four decades of dystopian movies and TV shows. If suddenly you are worried about order breaking down you naturally take steps to protect you and your family and what is yours from people who want to take it away.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug78

Let’s make one thing perfectly clear. Going across a state line with a bunch of pumped-up gun-toting strangers to stand in front of some distant acquaintance’s used car lot…..has nothing to do with protecting anybody’s family.

Did you look at his mug shot?…..just a dumb kid…..who hid his gun from his Mom…at a friend’s house.

What a total shit show…..glad I grew up with a dad…..who taught me to respect firearms, in addition to teaching me how to use them. His number one rule….never ever point a gun at a human…..that was taught to me from the day I got my first cap gun….at an age when I could barely hold it in my hand.

I’m a gun collector. I own many firearms…..I’m not anti-gun…just anti-stupid behavior.

And no, it isn’t logical to buy a gun when your kids might go hungry because you got laid off your job…I don’t buy that. It’s macho bullshit
.

Doug78
Doug78
5 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

Let me be clear also. You said “I wonder how many people bought guns with money that was intended to put food on the table for families?” I was just responding to that comment. I do own a gun, one that I got for my 14th birthday long long ago. It is still at my father’s house. I don’t have a gun in my house because in my area I feel secure. However I have worked a lot overseas and lived and worked for years in areas where those with guns rule and those without serve those who rule and I don’t like it at all. For Rittenhouse let the courts decide because they have the means to find out the truth where we do not so lets not go into virtue signalling. You have lots of guns already. Why would you deny others the same right? You also said “it isn’t logical to buy a gun when your kids might go hungry because you got laid off your job”. You cannot know if they used that money to buy a gun or not. You don’t who bought those guns. It could have been people like you who wanted to add to their collections for all you know. You have a bunch of guns and if someone who before didn’t own a gun decides to buy one then he is “Macho”?? No it’s because he is scared. Which one is the macho, the first-time buyer of the gun collector?

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug78

You can tell the macho guys because they have their guns out…..in public places nowhere near their homes….standing around in their paramilitary drag looking tough, taking selfies and grinning like monkeys. It’s not hard to pick ‘em out.

If you’re making excuses for that kind of behavior, we’re just not going to see eye-to-eye.

I’ve been all over this country and much of Mexico……, been in some tough neighborhoods in the middle of the night…..and I never once felt like I’d be safer with a gun in my hand in a public place. I have no problem with anybody owning a gun and keeping it at home…or using it to defend their home. That isn’t what I’m talking about…..

There aren’t many place in America right now…..where the rule of law isn’t being enforced well enough….. to make it unsafe to walk down the street…..and even people in those neighborhoods don’t need out-of-state dumb-asses to help out. Bad things happen. Idiots trying to act like vigilantes are part of the problem….not part of the solution.

It isn’t rational at all, imho, to buy a gun here with money you might need to help with food and rent….what it IS ….is typical irrational human behavior.

Your father sounds a lot like mine, btw. I am not a trophy hunter…haven’t hunted anything in years other than feral pigs.

Doug78
Doug78
5 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

I worked in Saharan Africa tracking down water-born disease outbreaks in the early 80’s and I saw lots of anarchy. Did it for three years and didn’t come once in those years. I was not a tourist in Mexico or walking in a bad neighbourhood. I have nothing to prove to you and I am not impressed. I do know that if you don’t defend yourself, your loved ones and your property someone will take it. I saw a lot of that from up close. The guys in paramilitary gear are mostly gun collectors because it gives them a thrill. Rittenhouse was on his first step to gun-collecting consequently he was bad at protecting because he was out for the thrill and not for the job.

Doug78
Doug78
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug78

Correction; didn’t come HOME in those three years.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug78

“The guys in paramilitary gear are mostly gun collectors because it gives them a thrill.”

No,……what they are is paramilitary-thugs-in-training….the same kind of thugs they have in Africa….and Indonesia….and other places…like some parts of Mexico, whether you’re impressed or not.

Which is why you might NEED a gun someplace like that to protect yourself.

But this is not Indonesia, and we’ve never had paramilitary thugs walking around the streets in this country….. and we sure as hell don’t need ‘em now.

It has nothing to much to do with gun collecting, as far as I can see. Let ’em get their thrills playing video games…the gun collectors I’ve known are nothing like those people.

Doug78
Doug78
5 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

My Dad taught me to shoot and not for fun. He grew up during the Depression and he told me that that was the only way they had to put meat on the table then. It was mainly rabbits and squirrels they shot. He made sure I knew how to shoot and shoot well in case the need arose. He never taught me to hunt for fun. I don’t mind hunters but he didn’t teach me that mindset.

Johnson1
Johnson1
5 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

I know two twenty somethings used the money as a down payment on a new car even though they were on furlough at the time.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
5 years ago
Reply to  Johnson1

You can’t legislate good sense……but I think most of the money that made it to Main Street was spent for reasonable purchases….I know there was some “mad money” mentality going around in my employee pool, but the huge amount of money that went to big businesses and institutions (like the $14 billion that went to colleges and universities, for instance) makes all the frivolous spending by individuals look like a drop in the bucket.

Working people who never have a surplus in ordinary circumstances tend to have a harder time hanging on to a windfall…than guys who read financial and economic news blogs and ae used to exercising a lot of discipline. Young people too.

I went from scraping by to having a quarter million in my checking account in a couple of days. I think it was June when I finally got funded…..months after I applied. I was tempted to buy a car or something like that…Glad I didn’t. The money all went where it was supposed to go, and now it’s almost all gone.

ajc1970
ajc1970
5 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

Money is fungible. Are you classifying all cases where a family received a stimulus check and also purchased a gun as “bought guns with money that was intended to put food on the table for families?”

Nearly every family in the country received a stimulus check.

Guns sales set records in 2020, as did gun sales to first-time gun buyers.

So you’re going to classify lots of stimulus checks as having purchased guns, but realistically, most receiving those checks didn’t need them to put food on the table and would have purchased their guns anyway. False positives.

5-month waitlist in my county to get fingerprinted by the sheriff for a CHL. It’s that way throughout the state. There’s a required class to complete before that step and the class has a waitlist too. Gun shops can’t keep anything in inventory.

Honestly I think it’s bad news when millions of Americans suddenly become first-time gun buyers. But that seems par for the course in 2020.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
5 years ago
Reply to  ajc1970

“Money is fungible. Are you classifying all cases where a family received a stimulus check and also purchased a gun as “bought guns with money that was intended to put food on the table for families?””

Not all, but probably a whole lot of them.

Moms tend to pay rent and buy food and do sensible things with money. Young guys with a big check burning a hole in their pockets….not so much.

Guns are tools for killing…that’s all they are…..They have their place. But you should have to earn the right to own one….by demonstrating you are a master of your own emotions, for one thing…..not sure how you do that these days. I learned at the knee of my father…and my “uncles”…all of whom were raised during the depression in rural Texas…..a different world that no longer exists.

I see no real reason for citizens in a modern society with functional law enforcement and the rule of law……to carry guns around in public. Concealed or not. There is a reason that got phased out in the old west.

ajc1970
ajc1970
5 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

I have no major argument with what you’re saying.

I just think the number of cases where people bought guns only because they received a stimulus payment were probably really low. More of an exception than a rule.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
5 years ago

The failure of the Congress to pass more relief measures for the people at the bottom of the food chain is appalling, and it won’t take too long for the chickens to come home to roost.

I hope the Trump base understands that it’s McConnell, the guy they just voted back into office, who is going to let them starve and put the on the street right at Christmas. But I’m sure they won’t. You can’t fix stupid.

ajc1970
ajc1970
5 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T

McConnell was quite willing to pass more PUA and PPP. He also was going to give a vote to whatever Trump negotiated with Pelosi (and with Trump’s support, that would have passed).

Pelosi put stimulus checks for illegal immigrants in the HEROES Act. I think it was intentional to make sure it wouldn’t get a vote before the elections. She wouldn’t negotiate on that, or state-level bailouts (for state pension deficits unrelated to COVID), or other measures in the HEROES act that were unrelated to COVID (banning voter id requirements, for example).

Then Schumer had Senate Dems filibuster the Senate version of a relief bill (which was basically PUA extension + PPP2, plus liability protection for businesses so that they’re not sued when people catch a virus).

If you think Congressional Dems have zero culpability on this, you’re blindly partisan. There was no way Pelosi was letting Trump sign a give-away package right before the elections.

Carl_R
Carl_R
5 years ago
Reply to  ajc1970

Now that the elections are mostly behind us, Pelosi may be willing to let a reasonable compromise go through. The fact that the Georgia Senate races must be repeated, however, may prevent that.

The fact is clear, though, that the wheels have not yet come off the economy. Spending another 3 trillion dollars was totally unnecessary. A simple bill doing no more than extending unemployment benefits is probably all that is needed.

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