Pelosi Pushes for a Vote That’s Doomed in the Senate, What’s Going On?

Push For Quick Votes on Thursday Hits Quick Snag

Please note yet another Pelosi Push for Quick Votes failed yesterday.

A push from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to bring up Democrats’ healthcare, education and climate package for a vote as early as Thursday hit a series of snags as lawmakers continued to haggle over immigration.

House Democrats spent much of the day discussing how to raise the $10,000 cap on the deduction for state and local taxes, settling later in the day on raising the cap to $80,000 for nine years, according to people familiar with the plan. A trio of House Democrats also threatened to withhold their support for the legislation unless it included more expansive immigration measures.

Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D., N.Y.) is calling for the legislation to offer green cards to discrete populations of immigrants no matter how they entered the U.S. “We shouldn’t really negotiate against ourselves and not consider the broadest proposal,” he said.

Mrs. Pelosi is trying to move forward with the social-spending bill without having a consensus from Democratic senators, adding a paid-leave provision back to the legislation that Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) opposes. “We figured if they’re putting things in, we could put things in, even if Manchin doesn’t like it,” she said. [Excuse me for pointing out Republicans are not putting anything in, they want things out. So does Manchin.]

Negotiations continued on the topic throughout Thursday, with lawmakers closing in on an agreement that would further raise the cap to $80,000 but let the $10,000 cap fall back into place after nine years, according to the people. [Only in for 9 years not 10. What a hoot. This is precisely the kind of thing Manchin protested. And it was not only Manchin objecting.]

Lifting the cap has drawn skepticism from Democrats who have objected to broadening a deduction that would mostly benefit high-income Americans. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) has proposed repealing the cap on the deduction for Americans making less than $400,000. 

Democrats were also trying to address resistance from some Texas lawmakers to a proposed fee on oil-and-gas companies that emit methane. “I certainly have big concerns,” Rep. Henry Cuellar (D., Texas) said.

Some centrist House Democrats have demanded that the legislation receive an official cost analysis before the House takes it up for a vote. Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D., Fla.) indicated she couldn’t yet commit to supporting the bill as the talks continued.

Here’s today’s update on a bill that’s doomed as promoted.

Party leaders have labored in recent days to lock down the support of enough House Democrats, with Mr. Biden placing calls to lawmakers to ask for their support and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi holding a series of 11th-hour bargaining sessions on its provisions. Democrats rolled out an updated version of the legislation late Thursday that tweaks its provisions on the state and local tax deduction and prescription-drug pricing.

But some centrist Democrats have so far declined to commit to supporting the bill, calling for additional analysis of its cost. Several of those Democrats met with Mrs. Pelosi Friday morning.

Rep. Jared Golden (D., Maine) said Friday that he wouldn’t vote for the bill without a cost analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which isn’t expected to come for at least a week. 

Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), a critical vote in the 50-50 Senate, has opposed a paid-leave measure that House Democrats added to the bill this week and raised broader questions about its impact on the deficit and inflation.

Democrats Take 180 Degree Wrong Message From Elections

Yesterday I noted Democrats Take 180 Degree Wrong Message From Elections

Hello Socialists

Sensible people are fed up with “free” Socialist programs that turn out to not be “free”.

Don’t expect that message to be heard. Instead, Progressives will whine about Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

Expect Bernie Sanders to double down on Medicare expansion, free school, etc., even though the system is broke.

Biden Can’t Hear or Think

Here’s Biden’s election takeaway: Election Defeat Shows Urgency of His Agenda

“People want us to get things done,” Biden said in remarks at the White House. “People are upset and uncertain about a lot of things, from Covid to school to jobs to a whole range of things. The cost of a gallon of gasoline.”

But Joe Manchin, a crucial moderate vote, said the takeaway from Tuesday’s votes was to pump the brakes. “I would just say that we better be very careful and be very, very transparent so so people know what’s in them,” he said. “Don’t even set a timeline until we thoroughly, thoroughly vet this bill.”

Pump the Brakes

Despite Manchin’s warning to “pump the brakes” Pelosi went the opposite direction. And that includes items guaranteed to not meet reconciliation rules, notably immigration provisions.

Flashback July 15

Schumer says he will force a Test Vote on the Infrastructure Plan.

Mr. Schumer said he was also instructing Democrats to reach agreement by Wednesday on the details of a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint the Budget Committee is putting together. That blueprint will unlock use of the fast-track reconciliation process, which would allow Democrats to pass an expansive economic package without Republican votes.

For an institution that hardly ever moves unless it is facing a deadline, Mr. Schumer’s announcement that he would hold a procedural vote on the infrastructure measure within days amounted to a hardball effort to push lawmakers into quickly finishing their work.

“The time has come to make progress, and we will,” he said.

In the House, Pelosi set a deadline for votes on September 1, September 30, and twice in October. 

Where’s It Going?

Assuming Pelosi gets a vote in, it cannot possibly clear the Senate as long as either Senator Manchin or Senator Kyrsten Sinema objects.  

But House progressives have vowed not to pass the infrastructure bill unless Build Back Better passes first. 

If they hold firm, then there can be no passage of the infrastructure bill. 

Meanwhile, Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D., N.Y.) adds icing on the cake with his notion “We shouldn’t really negotiate against ourselves and not consider the broadest proposal.” 

Question Regarding Pelosi

What’s Going On?

I am still struggling to get a grip on adding provisions that cannot pass the Senate. Immigration nonsense cannot even get past the Senate rules committee.

Are these actions supposed to change Manchin’s mind? What? 

The only thing I can come up with is Pelosi is now willing to pass the infrastructure bill and Build Back Better separately but cannot come out and say it that way because Progressives will not go along.   

If the House votes on both, the infrastructure portion will pass. Perhaps then Pelosi can force Progressives to take what they can get on the rest, bowing to whatever Manchin will agree with (hopefully nothing).

Divide and Conquer?

• If she cannot goad the Progressives to give up their BBB First demand, there will be nothing at all because Manchin has the opposite demand.
• If infrastructure passes (allegedly on a track where BBB is presented at the same time but cannot pass the Senate), she will say “Do you want something or nothing”

Is take what you can get by “divide and conquer” the unannounced game?

Perhaps she just lost her mind. But even if so, my above scenario can be the result.

Dear Progressives

Dear Progressives, please do as Espaillat says. 

Then do what AOC twice threatened: Blow the whole thing up, infrastructure and all, if you don’t get everything you want. 

I happen to have a musical tribute for the process.

Slip Slidin’ Away

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5anMTZjVsL8

Nothing Beats Nothing

The best package for the nation out of all these proposals in Congress is nothing. 

By all means, please keep antagonizing Senator manchin. Pile on. 

Thanks for Tuning In!

Like these reports? 

If so, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish