Brink of a Deal
The Guardian reports Boris Johnson ‘on brink of Brexit deal’ after border concessions
A draft text of the agreement could now be published on Wednesday if Downing Street gives the final green-light, according to senior EU and British sources. It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.
Johnson will still have to win over parliament – including the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) and the hardline Tory Brexiters, the European Research Group – on the basis that, under the deal, Northern Ireland will still legally be within the UK’s customs territory.
“Northern Ireland would de jure be in the UK’s customs territory but de facto in the European Union’s,” one diplomatic source said of the tentative agreement.
In a phone call with Johnson on Tuesday, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, acknowledged the momentum towards reaching a deal, but raised the possible need for a “technical” Brexit extension beyond 31 October to allow talks to bear fruit.
DUP Not on Board
This is a good political move on the part of DUP. Perhaps the EU will lighten up on some points.
But if push comes to shove, Johnson will dump DUP if he has the votes.
Saturday Meeting
Parliament will meet on Saturday, October 19, if there is a deal.
The Benn Bill requires Johnson to seek an extension or present a deal by that date. The goal is to have a draft by tomorrow.
ERG On Board
ERG is the group of hard-line Brexiteers led by Steve Baker
Blasts Pour In
That is complete nonsense. There is an enormous difference between all of UK being permanently trapped in a customs union and Northern Ireland being trapped. And the latter isn’t necessarily true. Stormont (Northern Ireland) will have a say, but both sides must agree.
SNP Blasts the Deal
Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon Blasted the Deal.
We oppose the politics of Johnson and Trump. But let us be clear today that we reject their methods too. Crude populism tramples on the rights of minorities and tears at the very fabric of our democracy.
We won’t take it anymore. We shouldn’t take it anymore. It is time to take charge of our own future. It is time for independence.
Brexit is a disaster. What makes Brexit so much worse for Scotland is that it is happening against our will.
Wales will have voted to leave. England will have voted to leave. Northern Ireland will be given a say over its future. Scotland will be the only country in the UK to be taken out of the EU against our will and with no say over our future relationship with Europe.
My call is that the referendum [on Scottish Independence] must happen next year.
Scottish Independence Polls
Hard Border Between Britain and Scotland
Sturgeon not only wants to break away from the UK, she also wants to Join the EU.
Effectively, she is campaigning for a hard border between Great Britain and Scotland.
It’s nonsensical given what just took place with Ireland. And this time there is no Irish Sea solution.
But heck, I am all in favor of a vote. I believe in self-determination.
I rather doubt Scotland would vote for a hard border, but let em have a referendum, if only to shut Sturgeon up.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The deal is not coming… This is just a game by EU to press for another extention as if they are getting closer but not enough time… If EU really wanted to reach compromise purely on merits, all this could have been done already…
They just want to put Boris into a difficult position when they say only small things unresolved and Boris exits on 31 Oct…
All depends now on Boris’s decision, he can fold under pressure – rememebr he voted for May’s deal third time – or he can stand his ground…
The concessions of Johnson to the EU might be understandable if Corbyn has lost the effective leadership of Labour to Remainers. An EU deal is needed if they are the main opponent. They can go for a referendum extension amendment but that seems to be a long shot.
My main scenario of a Corbyn extension could stand only if leaders are not defeated inside their parties. Difficult to tell if it is true at this point. I suspect that Corbyn still holds power but just barely.
The dumbest people in UK politics are the Scottish Nationalists.
Tend to agree but what do I know.
The NI-only backstop was the very first EU proposal in this whole charade. It is quite hard do dedicate it to the genius of Johnson. 🙂 If this is agreed, then he conceded on practically everything. And the parliamentary vote depends on Labour.
By the way, if the union with Northern Ireland can be thrown away, why should anyone worry about Scotland?
Rees-Mogg insists that many of the problematic aspects of the first deal are being dealt with, but we’ll know in a day or two whether or not that’s the case.
I do get the feeling that the other side has been blinking more than we can tell, especially Germany which is openly admitting that a no-deal exit will hurt them in the pocket book, and also that UK’s leaving is going to have a big effect because…. drumroll… UK will become a dynamic competitor.
In other words, they are dropping the dripping-with-scorn-for-poor-little-moribund-Britain approach and now finally approaching negotiations with the understanding that a) the UK is going so b) they might as well try to do as well as they can with that fact.
Personally I think that if the deal ends up too BRINO, it will nevertheless create the public perception of Brexit having happened after which it will be much harder for the EU to keep trapping us in bad arrangements. If they are too bad, we just unilaterally leave them behind.
(Can’t wait to close down the rape of the fishing zones and let our own fisherman be prosperous and busy again!)
Good Comments by@BaronAsh
Cannot be sure until we see final deal, but DUP doing a service by threatening to not go along.
Very decent chance of a reasonably fair deal.
I trust Rees-Mogg. If they are reasonaly happy then it’s likely a fair deal. Those saying it is May’s deal are wrong.
Thanks, Mish.
There’s another twist too – a possible Cummings-type 4D chess speculation:
Let’s say they get a deal this week, something credible enough for both the Spartans and a few Rebels to say yes to. But then the Opposition Coalition block its passage by ensuring not a single Labourlite or Lib-Dumbo or Scottish Bloviator votes for it. What then?
Then there might be a period of skirmishing in the Courts about the Surrender Act, meanwhile maybe also further negotiations with EU, but come what may, either Boris finagles an election guarantee – probably with an extension – so as to finally get rid of this Horrible Hung Parliament which has proven to be the major obstacle in the whole dynamic – or Oct 31st comes and goes and Brexit is done. I believe this is sort of what you were predicting the post before last.
So either they take the deal – and ‘they’ includes both the EU and the Remoaners – or Oct 31st happens. And in both cases there will be enough of a Brexit resolution to finally take the ‘do-we-or-don’t-we-leave’ dynamic out of any future negotiations and out of Parliament.
Of course, we have not seen the actual text. Moreover, it is not even agreed. This is all hypothetical talk.
Anyway, I am talking about leaked details of the negotiations while both of you are talking about emotions (hunches and personal trust). Don’t get me wrong, emotions are very important in politics but the expression of your emotions is not an argument.
As for the 4D chess, a “no deal” scenario leads directly to a vote of no confidence and the question about the interim PM. It must be hard to forget it every time.
Yes, first referendum failed
Mish, worth running the maths on Scotlands share of national debt and the metrics if they go independent. Not pretty.
Also the question on currency as BoE highly unlikely to want to go the euro route and have different fiscal authorities but one currency.
Whatever happens it will be messy, again.
I suppose they would have to negotiate a Scexit deal. Everyone knows you can’t leave with no deal, right?
Talking to people they parent give a vote to the English, Cornish and Welsh.
The great irony – they will gain “independence” by switching from their master in London to the master in Brussels… and no matter which master rules over them, the native Scots will be replaced by third worlders with no relationship to the land and it’s history within a few decades. Scottish National Party is happy with assisting the Great Replacement.
Interesting as the SNP were linked with fascist tendencies. Google the history.
Fascism is quite a broad term, national socialism with a dictatorial edge is maybe closer. Nothing to say we are not having previous or existing nationalist extremes, including those by national socialists, used to play on conscience to justify migration and the accompanying socialist vote. It would be a means to an end minus the ethnic connotation of nationality, where nationality would simply be the attributed registration of a person under that authority. Look at Catalan history also, they had youth movements styled on Germany of the day, or even the US had a similar movement before Germany, including the salute. Makes you wonder what world we are in really.
The Times no less.
Who cares what they once were. Now they are happily on board with the globalist agenda with a feminist harpy as their leader.
The one thing the further left, socialists and national socialists seem to agree on is their hatred of past British style imperialism in whatever shape or form. Seem to have been doing quite a good job for UK as a whole
What’s that, half a million Brits left UK and two million non EU arrived ? Avid would be proud.
@ Webej, migration vs nationality rights by naturalisation is the big difference that is upsetting the balance. Until that is changed nothing will change regarding migration , and I seriously doubt they will change those laws, they are self reinforcing.
Still do. The first such movement was the scouts, used by Baden Powell against the boers in South Africa during the boer war.
A lot of people confuse Fascism with Nationalism, or Nazism. Fascism, in it’s broad form, is simply the belief that it is appropriate to use violence to prevent free speech with which you disagree. Nazis were fascists, and some Nationalists are as well, but not all of them. Fascism can occur in any party, however.
Sounds like the modern left in general. Violence can take many forms.
“Diversity is our strength!”
The mantra of the leaders implementing serf replacement in the west.
“Switching from their master in London to the master in Brussels”.
That is the irony of the whole Brexit as well. The idea that the average Brit is going to feel more sovereign with one set of rules or another is dubious. Britain was overrun by commonwealth migrants independantly of any Brussels policies.
And judging by the antics of the British Parliament these last 2 years, I seriously wonder if the rules will make any more sense.
Scotland had a referendum a few years ago. Isn’t it?
Yes, but at the time, Britain was in the EU, so it is possible that results might be different in a new referendum.
Conditions now changed. This is a valid reason in an of itself to give Scotland another referendum.
I favor the breakup of empires. If California wanted a referendum I would give them one.
My only problem is the Mexican border
CA , the nation, would let them all in.
We would need to maintain a small slice of Southern CA
We would just need a hard border with California, and a wall, of course.
And, obviously, California would have to pay for it. 😉