The answer is China. 
Please note China Is Booming Despite US Tariffs.
Chinese industrial production broke records this year as its factories churned out more cars, machinery and chemicals than ever before. Despite the disruptions of tariffs, the country’s trade surplus in goods has set a record, as growing shipments to Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa offset the hit from Trump’s levies on direct sales to the U.S.
China’s surprisingly strong export performance hasn’t been without costs. The economy is battling an insidious phenomenon dubbed “involution,” in which cutthroat competition and ballooning industrial capacity are pushing down prices, profits and incomes.
The data show direct exports to the U.S. did take a hit from tariffs, falling about 19% over the same period. But the decline was more than made up for by sales to other regions, with exports to Southeast Asia up 14%, exports to the European Union up 8%, exports to Latin America up 7% and exports to Africa jumping by more than a quarter.
Some of those exports probably found their way to the U.S., either as parts and components in another country’s exports or simply by being rebadged as non-Chinese to avoid tariffs, analysts say.
China’s surprise export strength has been aided by factories cutting prices and a weak currency, especially in real terms, which adjusts for China’s lack of inflation.
Trump’s shifting tariff policy has also helped.
His decision to target all trading partners with tariffs has, for some manufacturers, reduced the incentive to shift production out of China, especially now that tariffs on Chinese imports have fallen back from earlier highs of 145% on some products. Average tariffs on Chinese imports are currently around 37%, according to the Tax Policy Center, compared with a rate of about 20% on Vietnamese imports, another popular country for manufacturing.
US Trade Isolation
Also note World Trade Grows Without the U.S. By Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney no doubt expressed the feelings of many of our trading partners when he said the U.S. was “no longer a reliable partner” and that Ottawa must “pivot our trade relations elsewhere.” Canada has responded to U.S. tariffs by launching a trade expansion effort, including a meeting between Mr. Carney and Xi Jinping that Mr. Carney called a “turning point” in Canada-China relations and trade.
In August, Canadian exports to the U.S. were about 10% below the 2024 average, but our northern neighbor is weaving commercial ties with other nations, including China, India, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates. Canada has reached a new trade expansion agreement with the EU and joined the EU in a defense production partnership.
Meanwhile in Asia, India’s recent easing of tensions with Beijing is fueling exports to China. According to India’s Economic Times, these exports are “helping New Delhi partly soften the blow of steep US tariffs.” India has also negotiated a free-trade agreement with the U.K. and hopes to complete a similar agreement with the EU by year’s end.
Bloomberg reports that “the new contours of global commerce are starting to emerge as governments redraw trade alliances and companies seek other markets to avoid the highest US tariffs since the 1930s.”
As trade is diverted around the U.S., other countries will continue to specialize in producing goods and services for which they have a comparative advantage. This specialization and the trade that sustains it will enhance efficiency and fuel economic growth in those trading nations. America’s economy will become increasingly isolated, to our detriment. Before tariffs, well over half of U.S. imports were inputs used by American producers. Keeping tariffs high will deny these producers access to many of the world’s lowest-cost inputs. Obliged by Mr. Trump’s protectionism to produce goods we could buy cheaper abroad and shielded from the competition that drives peak performance, U.S. producers will become less efficient and less competitive on the world market. [Mish Correction: They already have.]
American firms that relied on export markets to build economies of scale will shrink their operations to match their shrinking customer bases. [Mish Comment: They have to do this because Trump’s protectionism and foolish insistence to build it here makes the US the high cost producer.]
Growth in worker productivity and real wages will fall, and the prices that American families pay for goods and services will rise. U.S. economic growth will slow. [Mish Correction: That’s happening already and it’s also destroying jobs.]
Higher input costs produced by tariffs—especially the 50% tariff on steel, aluminum and copper—will also increase defense procurement costs. American-made weapons and other defense products will become pricier and less competitive on the world market. This is ironic in light of attempts to justify the tariffs with appeals to national security. [Mish Comment: Under guise of national security, Trump is making the US less secure.]
Expanding world trade built the modern world, liberated Eastern Europe, won the Cold War, and expanded America’s prosperity and influence. Building a tariff wall around America won’t stop trade; it will simply divert it. If tariffs remain high, America’s wealth and power will wane while that of other countries will grow.
Mr. Gramm, a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Boudreaux is a professor of economics at George Mason University
Insufficient TACO at US Ports
Trump did a big TACO on cranes needed to modernize US ports. But his timeline was more than a bit off the mark.
Please note Tariff Threat Forces U.S. Ports to Rethink Upgrade Plans
The threat of steep tariffs on Chinese ship-to-shore cranes is upending plans to modernize American ports, even after the Trump administration paused the new duties for a year.
“The order book for Chinese cranes from America has pretty much stopped,” said Tim McCarthy, chief operating officer of Harbor Industrial Services, a Wilmington, Calif.-based company that installs, maintains and upgrades cranes at West Coast ports.
American ports were racing to add taller cranes to their docks to service the larger containerships that have become more common on global trade routes. Bigger vessels that carry more containers reduce shipping costs and help to lower prices for importers and consumers, said Paul Bingham, director of transportation consulting at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The U.S. estimates that 80% of cranes at American ports were made in China. The Biden administration in 2024 imposed a 25% tariff on the cranes. The Trump administration this year imposed an additional 100% levy over the objections of port operators who warned it would add tens of millions of dollars to upgrade costs.
President Trump recently paused the 100% tariffs for one year as part of a broader trade truce with China. Shipping industry officials say the pause isn’t long enough to risk buying cranes that take a minimum of two years from order to delivery. They add that the shifting trade policy makes it difficult to plan investments.
Only three companies outside of China make ship-to-shore cranes that are available for international purchase, according to the American Association of Port Authorities. Port operators say these cranes cost at least 15% more than Chinese cranes and that the companies combined don’t have the capacity to meet U.S. demand for about 20 new cranes a year.
The Trump administration has been talking to businesses about setting up domestic crane manufacturing in the U.S. Shipping industry officials say establishing a domestic industry would take years and that U.S.-built cranes would cost more than cranes from Asia and Europe.
Trump cannot make up his mind for two days, let alone two years. So forget about modernizing US ports until he is gone.
Then again, Trump’s foolish mission is to make iPhones here, toys here, furniture here, and underwear here, so who needs ports anyway?
Understanding Reshoring
Toys are a great example of the problems in reshoring. Only the Grinch is a Winner.
Donald Trump was right again. “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls,” he said in April about the consequences of his tariffs. “And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”
When tariffs on China were at 145% this spring, Joann Cartiglia, owner of The Queen’s Treasures, a manufacturer in upstate New York, couldn’t afford to place orders.
Her experience is typical for small and midsize manufacturers with limited cash. Greg Ahearn, CEO of the Toy Association, an industry advocacy group, says he expects shortages of some toys this year.
Ms. Cartiglia of The Queen’s Treasures is 64 and had hoped to retire in the next two years but no longer sees that as possible. During the summer, she and her husband moved into a camper and rented out their home for extra cash. “It’s the government that is doing this to American entrepreneurs,” she says, her voice breaking.
Richard Goosmann, co-owner of Eugene Toy and Hobby in Eugene, Ore., says most of his 150 or so suppliers raised prices 10% to 20%. “It’s just really hard,” he says. Retailers in turn are raising prices for consumers. Ms. Derse of Learning Express said vendors changed prices many times in response to shifting tariffs, prompting retailers “to re-sticker everything.”
Couldn’t U.S. toy companies avoid all these problems by reshoring factory production? It sounds like a reasonable idea, but it isn’t that simple. Mr. Ahearn of the Toy Association says many U.S. toy businesses would be happy to bring back American manufacturing, but it would be difficult to replicate China’s complex, efficient toymaking ecosystem—especially while keeping costs low.
It often takes an elaborate network of Chinese factories to produce a single doll. One factory may produce vinyl for the head, legs and arms. Another may assemble the torso. A typical doll also gets a hand-sewn wig, hand-painted face, custom-made eyes, clothes and shoes. It then undergoes testing to ensure it’s child-safe.
Even if the U.S. managed to build the factories, it would be hard to find American workers eager to paint the eyes on dolls or stick the wheels on toy trucks. If the point of reshoring manufacturing is to benefit U.S. workers, such a goal is misguided. “Nobody is raising a child with the ambition to work in a toy factory,” Mr. Foreman says.
The national-security argument for reshoring also falls flat. China is a real threat to American security, but toys aren’t the place to decouple the two economies. “It doesn’t matter if Barbie dolls get produced in China,” Meg Reiss, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, told reporters at a national-security conference last month.
One-Two Punch of Economic Ineptitude
Canada, Brazil, India, and South Korea have all forged deeper ties with China as a result of Trump’s policies.
And at home, Trump’s policies are clobbering small businesses.
It’s an amazing one-two punch of economic ineptitude.
Trump Doubles Down on Economic Idiocy
November 28, 2025: Trump Doubles Down on Idiotic Idea of Using Tariffs to Replace Income Tax
Once again, Trump says tariffs can replace the income tax.
To replace income tax with tariffs, Trump would have to charge (and collect) $2.4 trillion in tariffs on $3.27 on imports.
That implies a tariff rate of 73.4 percent on all imports, without a decline in imports.
This is obvious economic idiocy, spouted by an obvious economic idiot.
Related Posts
December 8, 2025: Is Trump Succeeding at Rebalancing Trade With His Global Tariffs?
Let’s discuss with eleven pictures.
December 4, 2025: Challenger Reports Employers Announced 71,321 Job Cuts in November
Announcements imply future, not immediate, layoffs and unemployment claims.
December 5, 2025: Welcome to Tariff Complexity Hell, No One Knows What Trump Will Do
Tariffs are a tax, and complexity adds to that tax.
December 3, 2025 : Small Businesses Drop 120,000 Jobs in November, ADP Total Down 32,000
It’s another grim month according to ADP.
Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Details
- Small: -197,000
- Medium: +275,000
- Large: +1,012,000
None of this is a surprise. I have been discussing, and predicting this all year.
Ah yes, we see Tom Bergerson attack the source as “propaganda outlet of evil”
No discussion of what the articles said.
No refuting anything.
Just typical Ad Hominem bullshit.
Now exactly what did any of those article say you care to rebut?
In contrast EADOman gets it …
The problem is that we have a woefully uneducated electorate. Regardless of what any politician claims they can do, base manufacturing will never return to the US in any significant way. The Fed’s debasing of the currency has assured that, making manufacturing costs in the US if not the highest, one of the highest in the world.
So what should be done to compensate for this loss Mike??
(1) stop debasing the currency? I think that ship has sailed?
(2) Have the United States subsidize our industries deemed National Security? I think so. It certainly is what China is doing and will always do
(3) Raise Tariffs?
(4) Reduce Tariffs?
(5) Eliminate Tariffs?
(6) Friend source? Kind of already doing that with Vietmam, South Korea and a few other countries
(7) is Friend sourcing good enough to matter?
(8) Honestly, if you don’t make it and you are dependent on someone else to get it, when the shit hits the fan you aint gonna get it when you need it.
(9)So back to number 2, shouldn’t we be subsidizing industries deemed for National Security?
(10) Will subsidizing even matter?
(11) Or we just eat shit and slowly realize we are no longer the big guy on the block anymore
(12) And after 11 where does that take us?
I believe that Mish has promoted point 2 for items that are truly deemed “national security”.
As have I.
Cool. I totally agree with you both.
Ad hominem? That is an informal fallacy when one attacks the character of a person, not an institution. Though it is related.
Unfortunately Mish, your view is like you have blinders on and you do not see the big picture.
I DID address some of the things in the articles, though it is WSJ so really not worth addressing at all.
The BIGGER picture is that the broken and worthless decisions of the worthless leaders we have had the last 35 years will likely lead to our ruin. That includes Trump. It is too early to tell what the outcome of this round of Trump will be, though one might argue based on what is going on what likely outcomes can be
That is why I referred to the rise of BRICs, which if we do not change course will be our undoing. These traiffs have good odds of leading to that destruction.
But the main point in this space right here is, it is WAY too early to be whining about where are the manufacturing jobs, which was the click bait title of the article
Tom, opening/building a business based in importing Chinese products at pre-tariff prices seems to be an act of foolishness. Are you planning to go bankrupt and create long term write-offs?
Really can not make sense of what you are saying to us?
I agree with your position on newscorp for sure. So we do have some common ground.
am Korean. In Korea, the former president was kicked out. He was steeped in honor, and focused only on filling his own self-interest. The president of the United States now is often ridiculed in Korea for referring to his name. It’s the same thing you do.. Won’t he be like that soon?
well China might be getting some pesky record. Who cares when we have grandest White House Ballroom and can name it after Trump. They will not match that for sure.
Sad state of affairs, Trump/Vance is like dumb and dumber duo, Just still not sure who is Lloyd or Harry here?
Y’know I was about to apply for one of those awesome factory jobs, making… uh mobile phones? really swell footwear? but then…
Chinese manufacturing (around late 2024/2025),
average weekly hours hover around 48-49 hours, but many workers endure much longer shifts (70+ hrs/wk) with low or no overtime pay in some sectors, while average annual pay is roughly ¥108,000 – ¥124,000 (approx. $15,000 – $17,000 USD), varying significantly by region.
Thus edified, I ordered DoorDash and took a nap. I’m sure there’s a way for America to WIN again (as an investor, I will darn sure profit from it) but cosplaying the 1950s in the 2030s is just a setup for an epic national pratfall.
Won’t EV Manufacturing help a lot with that? The cost of Labor is greatly reduced from my understanding. Adding Robotics should take that down even further.
With that being said, we could loosen some restrictions/regulations perhaps, and eliminate some additional cost pressures.
Can we perhaps apply some of this technology elsewhere, like the food service industry perhaps, and I know it’s been started, but maybe set some timelines to have to shift over to these new ways. Maybe an incentive to do so quicker too?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eli-lilly-build-6-billion-203419613.html
China played Trump like a chump, not buying soybeans.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/09/china-buys-us-soybeans-trump-trade-agreement.html
There’s an old saying in Tennessee – I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee – that says, fool me once, shame on – shame on you. Fool me – you can’t get fooled again. -George W. Bush (needs to teach Trump a thing or two).
Manufacturing did go BOOM! Couldn’t you hear the ominous explosion?
Around here it sounded like an Implosion…
In 2021 Canada rejected a $220 million dollar bid from China for the Hope Bay mine in northern Canada for national security reasons. It was purchased by Agnico Eagle and put on care and maintenance as a new mine plan is developed. It will eventually produce approximately 300,000 ounces of gold per year.
Canada regularly rejected Chinese investments in oil, gas, timber and mining for national security reasons and included protecting the US in those rejections. All of that has changed with Trumps alienation of our best trading partner in history. China is investing heavily in Canada now and they are building crude oil and natural gas pipelines to the coast for exports to China.
Trumps myopic and narrow view of the world is that of a simpleton who specializes in ripping off whoever he can while bankrupting those he fools into investing in his schemes.
The largest success Trump has had is using bankruptcy write-offs against income from licensing agreements. Sad and pathetic little bully that is getting his ass kicked on the global stage.
No wonder the Fed has to lower interest rates. Our economy is failing under Trump.
TRUMP IS A FAILURE!
I should also mention that the Hope Bay mine has no road access and supports its own runway where 737’s can land to bring in supplies or personnel. It would have been a perfect cover for covert operations by China.
As our staunch ally, Canada rejected Chinas attempt to gain a stronghold under Biden. They will not make that mistake again or consider the US to be their ally.since Trumps destruction of the relationship.
China wins under Trump, the US loses.
Where is it? Years away. At best.
US Steel to resume steel production at Illinois plant shut 2 years agoWritten by The Associated Press
December 5, 2025
Hooray 400 jobs created.
How much will the output cost vs what we could buy from Canada with its cheaper power?
How much steel can we buy from Canada… let’s check to see how much of the world’s production they produce? Not much…
Based on the most recent complete data (2024 figures), here is Canada’s position in the global steel manufacturing breakdown:
🇨🇦 Canada’s Steel Manufacturing Breakdown
Metric Value
Annual Crude Steel Production (2024) 12.2 Million Tonnes (Mt)
Global Ranking (2024) 16th
Percentage of Global Production ≈0.65%
(This percentage is calculated based on the 2024 world crude steel production of 1,882.6 million tonnes).
The global steel manufacturing landscape is highly concentrated, with a few countries dominating production. Based on the 2024 crude steel production data, the breakdown for the top countries is as follows:
Rank Country Production (Million Tonnes) Percentage of Global Production (Approx.)
1 China 1,005.1 Mt ≈53.4%
2 India 149.6 Mt ≈7.9%
3 Japan 84.0 Mt ≈4.5%
4 United States 79.5 Mt ≈4.2%
5 Russia 70.7 Mt ≈3.8%
6 South Korea 63.5 Mt ≈3.4%
7 Germany 37.2 Mt ≈2.0%
8 Türkiye (Turkey) 36.9 Mt ≈2.0%
9 Brazil 33.7 Mt ≈1.8%
10 Iran 31.0 Mt ≈1.6%
Top 10 Total 1,591.2 Mt ≈84.5%
Rest of World 291.4 Mt ≈15.5%
Global Total 1,882.6 Mt 100%
Note: The percentages are calculated based on the 2024 total global crude steel production of 1,882.6 million tonnes.
Key Takeaways
China’s Dominance: China is the undisputed leader, producing over half of the world’s steel.
Asia’s Role: Asia and Oceania collectively account for over 72% of global output, with India emerging as the second-largest producer.
Concentration: The top 10 countries are responsible for approximately 84.5% of the world’s crude steel production.
How much steel can we buy from Canada? Good question. Traditionally, Canada has ranked 1st or 2nd for US steel imports. We normally imported over 6 Mt of semi-finished steel, flat-rolled products, long products and tubular products from Canada. In 2018, Canada was our number 1 source, before Trump tariffs.
These imports dropped when Trump put 25% tariffs on in 2018. They rebounded when he removed the tariffs in 2019. And have dropped again with Trump’s new 50% tariffs
Canada’s largest producer is Stelco in Hamilton. Which is owned by Cleveland Cliffs in the US.
Key Takeaway 1. Canada is our most important trading partner that we import steel from.
Key Takeaway 2. Most of what you wrote is irrelevant. Thanks for the info though.
Papa, my concern is always with the National Security. What I have learned is that the U.S. feels it has the capacity to sustain a serious conflict, as far as steel goes.(I think as Mish has stated before that he’s not concerned about it). That’s great.
But, the issue will be in converting the factories to production and the reports are that we would struggle with this. Of course, the U.S. is working on the planning for it and this is where there’s concern.
Also, I thought it was interesting that although the Canadiens produce 23% of our total imported steel, the percentage of imports is small compared to the total U.S. steel production, as I am sure your well aware of.
Yep. We only import 20-25% of our steel. And as you say, only 23% of that is from Canada.
If we want to increase our steel production for national security reasons, we should do it with incentives and subsidies to US steel producers, rather than through tariffs. The problem with tariffs is that they raise prices of steel for the tens of thousands of US steel users, making them less competitive internationally. Raising steel prices does not help US manufacturers.
The same goes for Aluminum, Copper, Potash etc.
MEXICO WILL PAY FOR OUR MANUFACTURING REVOLUTION AND THE WALL TO DIVIDE UKRAINE AND THE INVASION OF VENEZUELA.
Good lord where to start. Well I guess with fact that all links are to WSJ, which is a propaganda outfit of evil. One of which cites someone at The Atlantic Council, one of the greatest progenitors of evil in the universe
Anyway with that out of the way several things. Yes Trump is an idiot in many ways. He is attempting to set up a system that causes manufacturing to come back domestically. Will it work? Who knows. One of the articles says people arent raising children to make toys etc. Well actually we need jobs like that to rebalance the labor force in the US, which has tilted very dangerously in favor of Capital.
As for where are the jobs in mfg. Seriously? He has been in office for not even 11 months. You think that such a MASSIVE change in the structure of the world could take place in that time frame? NO. It would take YEARS, not months
Almost ready to start my business. I have all the original parts ordered from China just before tariffs went into effect. When I have to reorder, I would guiess my unit cost will balloon. Once I get the website done in a week or so, I will write a letter to Trump and to Commerce asking for exception to the tariffs for 3 items. Likely that will be rebuffed
The point is we are now in a world of chaos. No one knows how it will play out. The destruction of the US position in the world has many starting points, but the shift away from the US as a trusted country I think began with G W Bush when he said Ukraine in NATO in Bucharest in 2008, which led to the Maidan coup in 2014 (arranged by the US), Russia then retaking Crimea and now the 4 year long war in Ukraine, pushed mostly by Biden or his handlers which was the trigger that has set BRICs up for good and shifted everything away from the US due to the idiots posing as “leaders” here for the last 30+ years
Please explain why are you ordering your inputs from China?
Because they cost at least 5 times as much here. In other words the product is not viable in any way if several of the inputs are sourced here
Okay. Your business is not viable without inputs from China. And you were fortunate to avoid tariffs on your first inputs. Do you know what the tariff rate is today on those inputs? And if those inputs get hit by tariffs next time, will your business still be viable, or merely impaired?
Like everyone else he knows the tariffs are a stupid idea and will be gone by the time he needs to reorder.
Really? How does he know when the tariffs will be gone? Or perhaps you know? If so, please share the date when tariffs will be gone.
I will add, Bush (W) was the first total CIA puppet president. The CIA, which I now believe is responsible for EVERY ill event from before I was born, starting with assassinating Kennedy in 1963, took full control of the US after their 9/11 project. Bush was in place as their puppet. Clinton before him was a quasi puppet. Elder Bush was the head of the CIA. Obama is an outlier, a strange story. Trump either is involved and this is all kayfabe, or he really is an outsider.
And the Murdochs, and WSJ are completely CIA controlled, as is EVERY other corporate media source. So if you get your news from ANY of them, you are willingly ignorant and consumed by their BS propaganda. Their only use is to understand the narratives the Evil Ones are propagating
CIA plays 2nd fiddle to the owners of the NYFED, but they are really cunning little runts, for sure. the amerikan people are the violent assholes, who keep electing and endorsing never ending wars………
“As for where are the jobs in mfg. Seriously? He has been in office for not even 11 months”
WRONG! Trump has been in office 4 years (first term) and his tariffs were extended by Biden for an additional 4 years. Biden even raised the tariffs on China.
It’s been 9 years Tom, 9 freaking years. When is manufacturing going to return? Stop making excuses for this clown.
i manufacture pottery by hand right here in the good ole usa. i make about 5 bowls and vases per week. i could sell them for 10 pesos each and survive in the Sudan on that.
He did not have the team he has now, though I do not put much faith in them. Nor did he have the ideas he has now. So No iit has not been 9 years
Uh yes, it has been 9 years, the tariffs have been on that long and the premise of the tariffs was that it wold bring back manufacturing and it’s done no such thing even after 9 years.
The “team” is irrelevant but keep making excuses for the clown and keep doubling down until you go bankrupt, maybe then you’ll learn but I don’t put much faith in that either.
Wow, this is TWS in the extreme. Making excuses for Trump at every fail, yet never learning. However, continuing to believe.
Trumpers: “He didn’t understand the depth of the ‘Deep State’. It’s the MSM’s fault. It’s Fake News. He didn’t have the team that he has now. He sure hires smart people around him. The NYT is controlled by the joos. The WSJ is controlled by the CIA. It’s Biden’s fault. What about Hillary? Obama did it. The Dems did a coup to put Harris in. He’s better than Harris, etc. etc.”
Gets exhausting!
WMD AND THE OBVIOUS LIE THAT 9.11.01 WAS A SURPRISE.
Ah yes, attack the source as “propaganda outlet of evil”
No discussion of what the articles said.
No refuting anything.
Just typical Tom Bergerson Ad Hominem bullshit.
Now exactly what did any of those article say you care to rebut?
No worries Tom, AI is on they in, humanity is on the way out. All of our problems will be solved, no life no problems.
Unless of course the huge investment in AI is actually just a huge waste of resources, then the stock market is just a weee issue.
Trump is on a national tour to tout his economy; it will be interesting to hear how the braggart in chief spins this mess.
The problem is that we have a woefully uneducated electorate. Regardless of what any politician claims they can do, base manufacturing will never return to the US in any significant way. The Fed’s debasing of the currency has assured that, making manufacturing costs in the US if not the highest, one of the highest in the world. Trump, ignorant of any economic sense, continues to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, furthering the destructive cycle.
“The problem is that we have a woefully uneducated electorate.” True, but were they educated, where would they find a party to vote for that believes in that subset of free societies call a free market?
Good point about debasing currency. It is also a prime contributor explaining why debasing currency to inflate away the debt does not work. It cripples if not guts the very tax base that is expected to repay the debt and it inflates inflation protected payments made by the government inflating expenses but not revenue.
TRUMP SMOOT HAWLEY TARIFFS ARE AKIN TO WMD. I BELIEVE THE SAME SET OF PEOPLE BELIEVED IN BOTH. MUST BE 90% OVERLAP
Smoot-Hawley were the tariffs that went into effect as the Great Depression deepened. The S-H tariffs are credited with deepening and prolonging the depression. Other nations retaliated and simply stopped trading with the US.
If Trump studied history, he would know that Tariffs lead to economic wars that then lead to hot wars.
Trumps education seems to have ended in the second grade.
I had assumed everyone on mish blog understood what trump smoot hawley meant. trump is the greatest actor of our times. charlie chaplin rightfully so understood he was not the greatest actor, and even made a movie about the greatest actor of his times. adolph hitler. watch the documentary about the filming, and then the film on the great dictator. trump will be talked about for another century. he only cares about one thing.
Mostly excellent analysis, but if you are implying that things will improve after Trump is gone, well, maybe in a few ways, but…. If the Dems get back in, the spending will revert to DEI social programs and spreading more money around globally at the expense of rebuilding America. I find this truth to be self-evident.
Kinda like Trump sending $20B “globally” to Argentina to help its cattle farmers and now $12B to American farming “social programs” LOL
All politicians cater to their ‘constituents’. Your own political POV seems to be blinding you to that
if you believe the red v blue is real i suggest you gamble on pro wrestling. 98% of amerikans are war mongering nihilists. the 2% that vote libertarian and green might have a few brain cells or a soul.
Trump is hurting people all over. I have had orders rejected by customs from a small Canadian company four times in a row. I now give up. There is no US equivalent in quality and price.
The goal is to crush SMEs to consolidate the wealth into the hands of Trump’s billionaire buddies and Epstein Island blackmailers.
Thanks Mish. What a great summary of what so many of us have been saying since Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world.
Putting tariffs on the raw materials and parts that our manufacturers need will only make them less competitive internationally. Which will shrink US manufacturing.
Trump is successfully encouraging the further expansion of global trade to the benefit of everyone, except the US. He is causing the Great Isolation that will only serve to reduce the living standards of the average American.
You have to give him credit though. He still has many of his cult followers cheering him on and saying this will all work out for the best; eventually.
losers win by losing. so the cult members are actually winning. the bonus is owning the libs. their kids.
The whole “owning the libs” is infantile.
of course it is. amerikans are infantile, in the majority. WMD, is my first evidence. trump is 2nd evidence. democracy works. trump is amerikan as apple pie.
Wait a second you don’t believe the source “is a propaganda outfit of evil”?
Then again perhaps you do.
Some of us like to discuss ideas (right or wrong) instead of attacking sources.
Hi Mish. I assume you were referring to Tom here.
Regarding Tom, I usually ignore his crazy ramblings about any media source being evil, and therefore not worthy. I also ignore his Ukraine, Iran, Israel and other cult conspiracy rants. They have nothing to do with what he was talking about; which started as importing his stuff from China. All I wanted was a little clarity from Tom on why he was importing his stuff from China and whether his new business is viable without those Chinese inputs. The rest, I don’t really care about.
Trump‘s „biggest achievement“ could well be to drive not only Canada but also Europe into China‘s (open) arms. 80 years of transatlantic alliance built by generations of American statesmen flushed down the toilet by an ignoramus.
If the Europeons are too stupid to want cheap energy from Russia, they’re too stupid to align with China in any way. They think they matter. They don’t.
Not only the work of our statesmen but worse, our dedicated servicemen that gave their lives to build our nations economic powerhouse and global leadership.
Trumps worship of the 50’s economy and trying to duplicate low value manufacturing for home consumption only is a failed concept.
We lose long term relationships every day and markets everywhere.
Trump has become the laughing stock of the free world.
The servicemen have bankrupted the USA.
the veterans of the department of war haven’t protected anything in the usa since 1945. not the grunts faults. they are just useful idiots. but let’s be real. shall we.
perhaps that will be a blessing. i doubt it. but stranger things have happened. i’m a dual citizen of pax dumbfuckistan and the EU.
The manufacturing boom is coming. Takes time to build the manufacturing plants as you well know. I know its not looking good ATM but will turn around….and if the American voters are dumb enough to go back to the other party the Dems will take credit for “how great the economy is” and “how many new jobs” have been created! I’m done buying cheap Chinese products! Screw them!
Great sense of humor! What happened to your cult leader that said “Great on day one”? Trump has had nine years of tariffs and accomplished nothing but deprive our military of rare earths and raised prices. Another accomplishment is driving tourists and our allies away. Bravo for the great bankruptor!
depriving the department of war, rare earths seems like one of the few good benefits of pax dumbfuckistan’s people’s choice for king. we ought to sell off all the usa military bases outside the USA borders. they cause the world immeasurable harm. very evil enterprise.
There is almost zero chance you bothered to read his article if you are honestly making the claim you just did.
the amerikan peoples are a cry for help.
The export boom is in China, Brazil, Canada, Argentina, Russia, India and wherever nations are free to trade.
Yesterday China reported a record $1.08 Trillion dollar global trade surplus through the first 11 months of 2025 as its products became more competitive and many nations boycotted US products.
Tourism to the US fell precipitously given the fact that US immigration agents became so aggressive in its random detainment of legitimate visitors and body cavity searches.
Elections have consequences!
those farmers who voted trump are really sado masochists. they get off on being abused by their cult leader.
Worse ~ many are losing their family farms to corporate farms and guys like me that are well capitalized.
I can not fix their operations by following the mono crop model they destroyed their farms with. I can however rebuild their former farms and soils by managing them my way after acquiring them just before or in bankruptcy.
The MAGA signs will stay and slowly decay into the ground as a sad reminder of the former owners following a cult leader.
Not just the signs, the MAGA people themselves will slowly decay into the ground and be quickly forgotten.
I am not sure that the MAGA kids are learning to think independently out in farm country. Local school boards are run by some pretty narrow minded people.
One child of the Democratic Party leadership ended up in the hospital after being ganged up on and getting the hell beat out of him.
Lots of ICE “wanna be” brute squad members in farm country…
that’s horrible. kids can easily be provoked by what’s said in their homes. i remember during the recent unpleasantness in indochina, having a brother over there, and the reactions of many of my friends…….of course my brother was an idiot for going to firebomb rice farmers. that goes without saying.
good for you that you are taking farms out of the monocrop model. hat tip to you. that model starved many folks in world history.
the really twisted part of all this, is the amerikan people keep on voting for this. democracy has always worked. plato and socrates…….in “the republic”, warned about this problem with allowing idiots and war mongers the power to vote themselves into power. amerikans are twisted. they need therapy.
Next year.
Yes, surely next year.
OK? next year.
Oh the horror! China producing at amazing speed and offering their products at low, low, prices! This is just inhumane, please make it stop! We all want higher prices for everything! /s
So 9+ years of tariffs on China from Trump’s first term+ Biden Term + Trump 2nd term and China is still kicking butt.
And you guys wonder why Asia is poised to have a much higher quality of life while the west deteriorates in quality of life….
I’m not gonna say it but you know what goes here next…
[….]?
quality of life in Asia … depends how you define it. for one they don’t have the space. they live in apartments, usually smaller ones than here. Americans live in homes with yards.
also, go look air pollution. go look at the pollution in India and most cities in China and anywhere else in Asia, you literally start feeling it immediately and it is mny times the recommended levels. i don’t know about you but i place breathing pretty high on my list of things that contribute to quality of life.
They don’t have the space? What geography book did you study from?
I’m not moving to China nor India but your ignorance is staggering. Anyone can knit pick an area like the Appalachian hillbillies and project that out to the rest of America and it wouldn’t be correct anymore than saying New York city is the standard city in America.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HPZNbv8T4GE
I’m just addressing your comment that standard of living is or will be higher in Asia. there’s more to quality of life than cheap products.
All you need to know is people are still risking a lot to sneak into the US (or stay here after visas expired) from China, India, and most of Asia except for Japan and Singapore. When Americans and Europeans start sneaking into China or India or SE Asia, let me know. Your link to a literal Chinese Potemkin village is not convincing.
have you been to China? South/ Southeast Asia? I have. I know what I am talking about and it has nothing to do with ignorance.
Yes, I have been to southeast Asia and I already said I’m not interested in China. There are billions of people in Asia, are there billions trying to get into the US or just the very desperate?
If you want to live in a rural area in any parts of Asia it’s available just like the US. If you want to live in a large city, that’s available too. Jakarta just overtook Tokyo as the world’s largest city.
Yes, there is poverty everywhere and there is luxury everywhere, if you’ve been to Asia then you know that’s true as well.
We can talk about air pollution vs gun violence or fentanyl deaths all day long or any number of parameters but one thing is clear, cost of living in the United States is not sustainable and I speak as someone with millions in the bank.
Some of us see the writing on the wall and are taking action, the rest are called sheeple and will be culled and processed.
Here ya go, maybe this will help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpsr_FR_JxA
And the plan is to bring all of that air and water pollution back to the US?
Great, just peachy.
More super fund sites that no one will ever clean up.
anyone who expects quick and positive change via political tools, expects too much
Isuzu Selects Greenville County to Establish Its New United States Production Base
$280 Million Investment Will Create More Than 700 New Jobs
GREENVILLE, SC | February 12, 2025 – Isuzu North America Corporation (Isuzu), a supplier of commercial vehicles, today announced it has selected Greenville County to establish the company’s new production base in the United States. The company’s $280 million investment will create more than 700 new jobs.
A subsidiary of Isuzu Motors Limited, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of medium- and heavy-duty trucks, Isuzu supplies commercial vehicles for the United States and Canadian markets. Isuzu trucks entered the North American truck market in 1984, and the company sold 44,000 units in the last fiscal year, its highest total ever.
Isuzu has purchased a 1 million-square-foot facility, on over 200 acres of land on Augusta Road in Greenville County, that it is converting into a state-of-the-art assembly plant to expand Isuzu’s vehicle supply capabilities in North America. The new plant will include a variable-model, variable-volume production line that produces both internal combustion engine vehicles and electric vehicles. When completed, the plant will produce the company’s N-Series Gas, N-Series Electric and F-Series Diesel trucks, and will have a production capacity of 50,000 units annually.
Excellent, now you can pay $50k for an American made Isuzu instead of a Japanese made one. Pat yourself on the back.
700 jobs huh… as of August the US had already lost 33,000 manufacturing jobs for the year.
so? we always have manufacturing, the question is net are we gaining it?
and when will this plant supposedly be ready? a lot of companies are announcing building plans which will take 10 years to please the administration, do nothing for 3 years until he’s out of office.
Correct, announcements mean nothing. They are like farts in the wind. If they build anything it will be to dispose of antiquated assembly lines from plants that are retrofitted for globally competitive production.
i’m announcing i plan to play centerfield for the yankees in 10 years, and also sell out MSG as a rock star within the next 5 years. my 65 year old mind and body knows no bounds.
Feb 12th – hmmm….
Since these decisions take months (if not years) to formulate, then I think this one is a win for Biden.
seeing he is a delusional mental case its all in his imagination.