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Prime Day Falls Flat, Black Friday in October Again, Who Cares?

October Prime Day Falls Flat

There are few details of Amazon’s “Prime Early Access Sale” but Analysts say October Prime Day Was a Flop.

Analysts said Amazon’s 48-hour “Prime Early Access Sale,” which occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday, didn’t give the e-commerce company the same revenue boost, or attract as much social-media buzz, as prior Prime Days. This was Amazon’s second such shopping event this year. The previous one was in July. 

 Klover, a company that analyzes real-time commerce and financial data, found that households spent around 40% less during this week’s event compared with the July Prime Day.

“This Prime Day seemed to be mostly just another day on Amazon,” said Brian Mandelbaum, chief executive at Klover.

Average order prices also appeared to have dropped. Research firm Numerator, which tracks Prime sales event data, said the average order was $46.68, down from $60.29 during the summer event.

Sprout Social, an analytics company that tracks social-media mentions, reported that in the week after each event was announced, the Prime Early Access Sale was mentioned on Twitter 90% less than the summer event.

Retailers Kick Off Black Friday in October Again

Also note Retailers Kick Off Black Friday in October Again, This Time With Too Much Stuff

Black Friday may be more than six weeks away, but retailers are already rolling out the deals.

Target Corp. TGT  said Monday that it was beginning its Black Friday sale, which will include half-priced electronics and toys. Walmart Inc. also said it was offering sales this week for holiday shoppers.

Some retailers have pushed their Black Fridays sales earlier in recent years in a bid to draw customers and compete with Amazon. Target announced this year’s Black Friday deals three weeks earlier than last year. 

Target said that it would roll out both daily and weekly deals now through the week of Black Friday, which is on Nov. 25 this year. Some of the offers include steep markdowns on TVs and air fryers and 50% off Beats by Dre headphones.

Walmart said Monday that it was offering four days of discounts this week for early holiday shoppers. The company is selling discounted Apple Watches, electric bikes and other products.

Clearance Laptops

Laptop Magazine reports Dell Has Early Black Friday Deals that are Better than Amazon’s Prime Day.

For computers, it’s nothing but bah humbug. MarketWatch reports PC Market in ‘Steepest’ Fall Since Mid-1990s

Global PC shipments logged yet another quarter of declines, while remaining above pre-pandemic levels, their worst — or among their worst — ever recorded, depending if you follow research firm International Data Group or rival Gartner Inc.

Early Monday, IDC said third-quarter PC shipments worldwide fell 15% year-over-year to 74.3 million worldwide, just a hair from the second-quarter decline of 15.3% that marked the sharpest quarterly drop off in shipments since IDC began collecting data back in the mid-1990s. 

This quarter, Gartner data released after the close of markets Monday claims third-quarter PC shipments plummeted a whopping 19.5% to 68 million from a year ago, or a difference of 6.3 million shipments versus IDC.

That nearly 20% drop marks “the steepest market decline since Gartner began tracking the PC market in the mid 1990s and the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year decline,” the firm said in a statement. 

Cutting Back on Prescriptions

The Wall Street Journal reports Walgreens Quarterly Sales Fall on Fewer Prescriptions, Covid-19 Vaccinations

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. posted a 5.3% drop in revenue in its recently completed quarter as it filled fewer prescriptions and administered fewer Covid-19 vaccinations.

The Deerfield, Ill.-based drugstore chain saw a nearly 9% drop in U.S. pharmacy sales, after giving 2.9 million Covid-19 vaccinations and 3.4 million PCR tests in the period. This compares with 13.5 million vaccinations in the same period a year earlier.

The unit was also weighed down by declines in AllianceRX Walgreens, the company’s specialty and home-delivery pharmacy division.

It’s not just Covid, pharmacy home deliveries are down at Walgreens too. Are people taking half doses of medicine because they cannot afford the prices? 

Black Friday in October, Who Cares?

Black Friday is traditionally the day after Thanksgiving.

To compete with Amazon, stores including Target, Apple, and Walmart are in aggressive competition to start sales earlier and earlier. 

Hot CPI Data 

Consumers are spending more on food and rent. As a result, they are cutting back everywhere else. 

For discussion of the CPI including declines in energy, please see CPI Much Hotter Than Expected Led by a Surge in Price of Food and Shelter

For discussion of the food price inflation, please see The Cost of Food Jumps Another 0.8 Percent in September

The September retail sales report is out tomorrow. The Bloomberg Econoday consensus is for a 0.2 percent rise. I’ll take the under. 

Regardless, its “real” inflation-adjusted sales, not nominal sales that drives the CPI, and the CPI rose 0.4 percent. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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27 Comments
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
FYI. Just got an export ban notice for doing business with any Chinese distributors. I work in the semiconductor industry.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
The consumptive model of capitalism was never sustainable. We will continue to get events like Ira in Florida as the planet continues to go haywire. Viruses will also become more lethal as they love a warmer planet.
Dean2020
Dean2020
3 years ago
I was using Walgreens for prescriptions but found Costco and Amazon WAY cheaper. Often, medication is even cheaper than my co-pay.
For pet medication search online. I found by dog’s antibiotic over 90% cheaper than using the vet’s office.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Worldwide TV sales are bad also. The first things people cut back on are non essential items. Doubt much of what was on sale at amazon is essential. I bought a Dune UHD disk for 11.99. I haven’t seen it and I figured it cost about the same as a movie ticket. I got a 83″ OLED TV this summer, a 7.4.4 surround sound setup and UHD disks are the highest quality content. So, why not splurge? Wonder if my kids will be willing to give up 2.5 hours to join me. I doubt it. They’d rather watch it on a phone.
WarpartySerf
WarpartySerf
3 years ago
I see no real deals out there. Been looking for 2 weeks. Let the retailers keep the stuff…….
Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
There wasn’t much in the way of real “deals”. I bought some new Chinese earbuds.
You’re welcome Xi.
Bohm-Bawerk
Bohm-Bawerk
3 years ago

We got a new self emptying Roomba, as we were going to get a new one anyway and $200 off was enough to bother now, so my prime order was $641. Plus a book later in the day.

prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
Reply to  Bohm-Bawerk
Thank you for that very useful information
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Bohm-Bawerk
I bought a roomba a few years ago at a prime day sale. Think I used it about 5 times. It keeps getting stuck under furniture. It also tends to vacuum the same spots over and over.
Avery
Avery
3 years ago
On-line on-wheels China-Mart = innovative tech!
MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
The only thing to buy right now are OTM PUTS on home builder stocks and XHB, every “rally” they go on sale. Alternatively, short term t-bills, I-bonds, or short term CDs.
For a little more risk, naked puts on oil stocks during oil crashes and covered calls on oil rallies. It’s ridiculous that I can sell calls in the morning, buy them back in the afternoon and bank profits. Works for naked puts too the opposite way.
Of course, end of October will be the time I stop all trading waiting for the next Fed’s next meeting. What if it’s a surprise boost of 100 bps or more? I may not trade until after the December meeting if the world is still around then.
MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
I look at any trade or idea and tend to look at what could go wrong, that said, the Fed’s gone nuts this year and despite that, energy is still contributing a lot to overall inflation.
If current events, namely Ukraine or OPEC, takes a turn, the Fed and the market could pivot, if jobs/unemployment swings rapidly enough, pivot.
(Job openings fell 10%, 1 mil this month, though still high)
The only reason I say this is that shorting builders & long oil is the obvious right play, but when something looks obvious to me I scrutinize, ESPECIALLY on shorts, except Vix.
The market is heavier than ever with retail traders and I will never forget trading through constant head-fakes back in ’08-’09, on March 6th ’09, I’d finally resolved the market was going to keep going down, with a lot of assist from pundits and doom scrolling.
Though I do think you’re right – Caveat emptor
.
MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  MarkraD
Even if the Fed had a magic wand to turn 8.2% to 2.0% inflation, it can’t fix this.
MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Interesting, Japan & Switzerland in particular when you factor their currencies
hhabana
hhabana
3 years ago
Urgh. Black Friday sales in October. How pathetic. I’m not a Zoomer or Millenial. When I was growing up the shopping experience didn’t start until the day after Thanksgiving. The politically correct, antidepressant loaded idiots in control now bypass Thanksgiving for many years. I’d have to say it ties with Christmas because it’s a holiday where you express gratitude for family, health and zillion other blessings. The best part is that it only costs the price of a turkey or a bean burrito if you are a vegetarian. No money changers involved. Costco has their Christmas stuff up and Home Depot too. Ick.
Me? I pretty much got what I need. I’m blessed in that sense. There would really have to be some big discount on a firearm or tools. The last thing I need is a computer, a TV (I don’t subscribe to any of that woke, vile junk) or some other electronic gizmo. I definately won’t spend like I have in the past. I’d rather see this farce called the US Economy burn down and start afresh.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  hhabana
The way things are going, Thanksgiving and Christmas will no longer be holidays. They’ll be replaced with Kwanza and Ethnic diversity day.
Kevin M
Kevin M
3 years ago
Reply to  hhabana
Lots of contradiction. When you have what you need, it can’t burn down. Yet.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
I’m an Amazon Prime member and I had no idea this sale was even on. I knew about the one in July (ordered a few things then) since it’s been running for a few years now. I suspect a majority of people had no idea it was even on or maybe only some companies participated.
As I mentioned in the prior post, I’m in the market for a Washer/Dryer combo and waiting for Black Friday and also mulling over the idea of a small freezer too for extra meat storage. Hoping things continue to look bad so the deals are really good.
MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
check slickdeals dot net – I saw washer/dryer there not too long ago that seemed really cheap from Costco.
FooFooFed
FooFooFed
3 years ago
Bigger issues coming… Fed dollar swaps, SNB 3.1 billion last week and 6.2 Billion yesterday! https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP/status/1580661254179663872?cxt=HHwWgMDR2abC0e8rAAAA
plus MOVE index at 160!
Matt3
Matt3
3 years ago
I keep reading how earnings of stocks need to drop. I’m not sure I agree as the inflation will increase the earnings in non-adjusted dollars.
Is this how earnings at Pepsi and others are holding up?
MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Not happy to hear this news, but, isn’t reduction in discretionary spending an expected effect of raising rates to reduce inflation?
If the Fed weren’t such a crude instrument, we’d have a supply solution targeting food and gas prices directly, that falls on D.C.
We’re … screwed!
jivefive98
jivefive98
3 years ago
With price per therm way above last winter’s prices, once everyone gets an October bill, heating is gonna be the #1 story this winter. There wont be much left over for elastic priced things.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
Oh, retailers want you spend before heating bills arrive. Sorry for those with heating oil. Propane users spared (for now).
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
“To compete with Amazon, stores including Target, Apple, and Walmart are in aggressive competition to start sales earlier and earlier.”
Absolutely.
My only question … do the economists at Census Bureau know this? Retail sales numbers are seasonally adjusted. So, if retailers entice consumer to spend sooner rather than later … and adjustment number not up to speed … could mean “reported” retail sales for October good … and not so good for Nov / Dec.
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
Not properly factored in IMO
JRM
JRM
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
I noticed for the last 10+ years the MSM always talk about record holiday sales in Dec, but when the revisions roll out in late Jan-Feb, none of the MSM correct their headlines and leave their “PROPAGANDA” up!!!!

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