Producer Prices Decline 0.1 Percent With Goods Declining and Services Rising

PPI data from the BLS chart by Mish

Last month I noted Producer Prices Decline For the First Time Since the Pandemic Due to Energy

Today, the BLS PPI Report shows a second straight drop, but again with services rising.

Key Details 

  • The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1 percent in August. 
  • Final demand prices decreased 0.4 percent in July and advanced 1.0 percent in June. 
  • On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 8.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August. 
  • In August, the decrease in the index for final demand is attributable to a 1.2-percent decline in prices for final demand goods. 
  • The index for final demand services advanced 0.4 percent. 
  • Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in August following a 0.1-percent rise in July. 
  • For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 5.6 percent. 

Final Demand Goods

  • The index for final demand goods fell 1.2 percent in August after declining 1.7 percent in July. The August decrease can be traced to a 6.0-percent drop in prices for final demand energy.
  • Conversely, the index for final demand goods less foods and energy rose 0.2 percent, while prices for final demand foods were unchanged.
  • In August, over three-quarters of the decrease in prices for final demand goods is attributable to the index for gasoline, which fell 12.7 percent. Prices for diesel fuel, jet fuel, chicken eggs, primary basic organic chemicals, and home heating oil also declined.
  • In contrast, the index for construction machinery and equipment increased 2.6 percent.
  • Prices for beverages and beverage materials and for electric power also rose.

Final Demand Services

  • The index for final demand services moved up 0.4 percent in August, the fourth consecutive rise. Sixty percent of the August advance can be traced to a 0.8-percent increase in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)
  • Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing also moved higher, rising 0.3 percent.
  • Conversely, the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services decreased 0.2 percent.
  • Forty percent of the increase in prices for final demand services can be attributed to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which rose 14.2 percent.
  • The indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; loan services (partial); transportation of passengers (partial); portfolio management; and chemicals and allied products wholesaling also moved higher. In contrast, prices for truck transportation of freight decreased 1.9 percent.
  • The indexes for guestroom rental and for food and alcohol retailing also fell. 

PPI Final Demand Year-Over-Year Four Ways

PPI Final Demand Year-Over-Year Details 

  • Final Demand: Up 8.7 Percent
  • Final Demand Goods: Up 12.2 Percent
  • Final Demand Services: Up 6.6 Percent
  • Final Demand Energy: Up 25.9 Percent

PPI Final Demand, Intermediate Demand, CPI 

Processed Goods for Intermediate Demand

  • The index for processed goods for intermediate demand fell 1.7 percent in August after decreasing 2.2 percent in July. 
  • About two-thirds of the August decline is attributable to a 5.2-percent drop in prices for processed energy goods. 
  • The index for processed materials less foods and energy moved down 0.8 percent. Conversely, prices for processed foods and feeds inched up 0.1 percent. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 14.1 percent. 
  • Over 40 percent of the August decline in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand can be traced to an 11.4-percent decrease in diesel fuel prices. 
  • The indexes for primary basic organic chemicals; gasoline; steel mill products; jet fuel; and natural, processed, and imitation cheese also moved lower. 
  • In contrast, prices for prepared animal feeds advanced 1.2 percent. The indexes for natural gas to electric utilities and for paper boxes and containers also rose.

 Unprocessed Goods for Intermediate Demand

  • The index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand moved up 5.7 percent in August, the largest advance since increasing 9.8 percent in February. 
  • Leading the August rise, prices for unprocessed energy materials jumped 13.5 percent. 
  • The index for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy advanced 1.0 percent. Conversely, prices for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs declined 1.9 percent. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand rose 36.1 percent. 
  • Leading the August increase in prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand, the natural gas index surged 35.3 percent. Prices for livestock, corn, oilseeds, nonferrous metal ores, and nonferrous scrap also moved higher. In contrast, the index for raw milk fell 8.8 percent. Prices for crude petroleum and for iron and steel scrap also decreased.  

Services for Intermediate Demand

  • The index for services for intermediate demand rose 1.0 percent in August, the largest advance since moving up 1.3 percent in March. 
  • Leading the August increase, prices for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing for intermediate demand climbed 1.3 percent. 
  • Margins for trade services for intermediate demand moved up 0.6 percent.
  • Conversely, the index for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand declined 0.1 percent.
  • For the 12 months ended in August, prices for services for intermediate demand advanced 6.3 percent. 
  • Thirty percent of the August increase in the index for services for intermediate demand is attributable to a 5.5-percent rise in prices for nonresidential real estate rents
  • The indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; loan services (partial); fuels and lubricants retailing; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling; and arrangement of freight and cargo transportation also moved higher. In contrast, prices for warehousing, storage, and related services fell 5.3 percent. The indexes for television advertising time sales and for metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling also decreased.  

Stocks Hammered as CPI Rises a Mere 0.1 Percent More Than Expected

For discussion of the CPI and the stock market carnage that followed, please see Stocks Hammered as CPI Rises a Mere 0.1 Percent More Than Expected.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Another good day for oil and gas stocks. Hope that some of the people here took advantage of my recommendations. The cash flow continues to gush, more companies are becoming debt free, and every week there seems to be dividend increases.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Fred : Retailers Inventories/ Sales hit nadir in Oct 2021 @1.09. Currently slightly above @1.21, well below normal. What will happen to the economy if the R/R union strike. Can we survive it.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Next week/two weeks SPX Weekly might be green. If so, SPX monthly will be green, with a large selling tail, closing > Aug close.
That doesn’t cancel a bearish option. We don’t know what the market will do.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
Don’t feel badly about it.
If I knew what the market was going to do I wouldn’t be reading this.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
The market is going to crash, we all know it, we just debate the timing of it.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
Absolute Certainty is a foolish conciet, But I’ll give it a .9925 probability.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
MPO45, a month ago u wanted to buy few houses for rent income…
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
Yes, I am in the market for rental houses, you have any good leads? My preferred cap rate is 8% to 12%. Let me know if you find something in chicago with that cap rate.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Lisa Hooker avoid junk food, red/white meat, eggs, SBUX…
Mark Douglas : “Trading in the Zone” ==> the market is a casino. U never know what the market will do. The market can humble people
with high IQ and large ego….
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
8dots, avoid booze and mushrooms. But wait! If you did that, who’d we have to laugh at? LOL
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
Business Applications for August 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation, were 421,503, a decrease of 1.0
percent compared to July 2022.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
That link shows lots of profits for retailers and manufacturers. Housing is trash though.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
About the only thing of note today … 30yr average mortgage hitting 6.30%.
Year to date high … which means high since 2008. August 2008. Seems about right.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 9, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Labor Day.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 29 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
2008….was that a good year for stocks and housing? I don’t seem to recall…..
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago

Vi is a “residual
calculation – not a real physical observable and measurable statistic.” Income
velocity may be a “fudge factor,” but the transactions velocity of
circulation is a tangible figure.

I.e., income
velocity, Vi, is endogenously derived and therefore contrived (N-gDp divided by
M) whereas Vt, the transactions’ velocity of circulation, is an “independent”
exogenous force acting on prices.

Money demand is
viewed as a function of its opportunity cost-the foregone interest income of
holding lower-yielding money balances (a liquidity preference curve). As this
cost of holding money falls, the demand for money rises (and velocity
decreases).

As Dr.
Philip George says: “The velocity of money is a function of interest rates”

As Dr.
Philip George puts it: “Changes in velocity have nothing to do with the speed
at which money moves from hand to hand but are entirely the result of movements
between demand deposits and other kinds of deposits.”

JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
My maternal grandparents were refugees of the great German inflation of 1923. He was paid twice a day, and they’d run out at lunch to buy food before the prices rose by the end of the day. How is that not velocity?
Christoball
Christoball
1 year ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
Does this mean that higher interests for savings accounts is deflationary???
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Goods, Services and energy PPI aren’t equal weight.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
For fun, rail strike across america tomorrow maybe or not.
ohno
ohno
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
Perfect timing for a strike from the employees perspective as there will be a huge demand to settle in a hurry.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Reply to  ohno
no strike, BRK might fly, at least for a while, along with real wages. labor is too high, for the old blue zone guys, who employ hundreds of thousands people.
For fun and entertainment only ==> a legal requirement.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
Strike already happen and damage done not fun for many.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
For fun I warned about it in a different blog at 5:24 AM.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Just went to the Apple Store at lunch to get a new iphone for the wife. They are sold out of all 13 Pro models. I asked about the pre-ordering new one and they said it won’t come in until mid october at earliest. Sales have been red hot. Best way to get one is drop by Friday and hope there is inventory left when I get there. I will post a follow up.
Two economies: working professionals that can’t get enough goods/services and everyone else that is struggling to get by. Isn’t this how most third world countries work?
Naphtali
Naphtali
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
Neofeudalism
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
Lots of refurbished iPhone13’s available if you want to go that route and not hope to get lucky with inventory and you get nicely discounted price
I got the missus an iPhone XS from ‘backmarket’ a year ago and it worked flawlessly and looked as good as new plus came unlocked so could work with any carrier. Cost half as much as a new one.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Electronics we buy new and keep until dead. I upgraded from a 6s to a 13 Max Pro to give you an idea. Hers is a 9 I think and she will jump to 14 on friday if we get lucky. If not, will have to order and wait, she wants a new phone with better camera for our travels to asia and europe later in the year.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
Be sure to get a red one so she can do some virtue signaling.
Apple doesn’t miss a bet.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Buying a generation behind on eBay has always served me well.

Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
Supply and demand applied to skills. JoeBob Boxlifter can train up or make due with an Android from Walmart.
JRM
JRM
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45
Doesn’t prove “RED HOT” just means they are not “GETTING INVENTORY”!!!!
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Doesn’t look like the dead cat bounced very far today. Bad sign.

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