Producer Prices Jump Another 1.4 Percent in March, Up 23 Consecutive Months

PPI and CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish

PPI Synopsis 

  • The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. 
  • This rise followed advances of 0.9 percent in February and 1.2 percent in January.
  • On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 11.2 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010. 
  • In March, the rise in the index for final demand was led by a 2.3-percent advance in prices for final demand goods. 
  • The index for final demand services increased 0.9 percent. 
  • Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.9 percent in March, the largest advance since rising 1.0 percent in January 2021. 
  • For the 12 months ended in March, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 7.0 percent.  

PPI Month Over Month 

PPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish

The last time PPI for final demand declined on a month-over-month basis was April of 2020 in the midst of the pandemic recession.

PPI Final Demand Year-Over-Year Four Ways 

PPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Final Demand Goods

  • The index for final demand goods rose 2.3 percent in March, the same as in February. 
  • Over half of the broad-based advance in March can be traced to a 5.7-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. 
  • The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also moved higher, 1.1 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. 
  • Leading the March increase in the index for final demand goods, diesel fuel prices jumped 20.4 percent. The indexes for gasoline, fresh and dry vegetables, jet fuel, iron and steel scrap, and electric power also moved higher. 
  • In contrast, prices for beef and veal fell 7.3 percent. The indexes for natural gas and for cold rolled steel sheet and strip also declined. 

Final Demand Services 

  • Prices for final demand services moved up 0.9 percent in March following a 0.3- percent increase in February. 
  • Over 40 percent of the March advance can be traced to a 1.2-percent rise in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) 
  • Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services and for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing also moved higher, climbing 5.5 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.
  • A 22.7-percent jump in margins for fuels and lubricants retailing was a major factor in the March advance in prices for final demand services. 
  • The indexes for truck transportation of freight; traveler accommodation services; airline passenger services; inpatient care; and hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing also increased. 
  • Prices for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice decreased 5.4 percent. The indexes for portfolio management and for automobile retailing (partial) also moved lower.  

CPI Rips Higher to 8.5 Percent From a Year Ago, the Most Since 1981

For discussion of the CPI, please see CPI Rips Higher to 8.5 Percent From a Year Ago, the Most Since 1981

As a result of surging inflation, Real Hourly Wages Dive Again in March, Negative for 13 of Last 15 Months

But why stop at 13 months? 

Hourly earnings data from BLS, chart and inflation calculation by Mish

Please note Inflation Has Eaten Up Nearly 100 Percent of Hourly Wage Gains Since 1973

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

Thanks for Tuning In!

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

14 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
MPO45
MPO45
2 years ago
The good news is that i-bonds are going to be paying 10% soon. Got i-bonds?
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
DUH ! Printing even more money is always an option of course, leading to even more inflation, printing less and increasing interest rates to historically normal levels on the other hand, would dramatically deflate the stock market and the insane housing bubble. Another very fashionable alternative these days is to blame it all on Russia, sending more arms to your puppet Nazi regime or even getting directly involved into your created conflict which would at one point lead to a well deserved, thermonuclear war, and this time, hopefully so, the world’s warmonger n° 1, the fn US of A ,would get annihilated too, I sincerely hope so anyway, which, all things well considered would be one HELL of a solution for ALL existing problems …. but…. there’ s another panacea fully in the makings these days….the fn Covid shots ! Science never managed to create some AIDS vaccine, now they got one that actually and undeniably causes AIDS : the Covid shots ! Triple vaxxed acquaintances and friends of mine in their 50s and 60s are dying like never before, excess death among younger people also seems to be occurring dramatically and, whether planned or not, these are ‘solutions’ too for the plight we re in …..when one comes to think of it…..8 billion materialism craving predators are far too many…..the WEF, NWO craving mfrs are perfectly aware of it …. aren t they ?
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
2 years ago
the fed will no doubt be hiking. they will want to have ammunition to bring it down again in 2 or 3 years from now. they are very calculating in keeping their owners in high cotton(southern term for big swinging D money). and biden is the perfect president for them. he’s a Delaware corporation and military industry pumper, disguised as a human being………… so if they jack up rates next 12 months to 30 months(an eternity) and then start bringing rates down by end of summer of 2024 in beginning of general election final stretch at belmont (pardon the gambling pun), sleepy joe will be a shoe in to win a second term as a war president in a rising economy and lowering rates…………………….
i’m with austrians. inflation is money and debt creation. the prices of stuff is based on so many other factors and with much time lag from how long the juice gets out in system. by some scholars analysis in history, the money creation can take 20 years to appear in some prices of things.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
I don’t know much … but I know that your chart with the 3 arrows … will never make mainstream media …
FlyNavy1
FlyNavy1
2 years ago
This damn Putin/Trump/Tooth Fairy inflation…
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
I’m surprised it is that low given it takes energy and commodities to make everything.
shamrock
shamrock
2 years ago
I don’t see anymore yield curve inversions, and the 2-10 is about 30 basis points. What’s your take on that?
Mish
Mish
2 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
Let’s see what happens after the next two FOMC meetings
the 2-year has rallied – Fed not gonna hike?
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
Reply to  Mish

The curve is a difficult call at the moment. The stock market is still saying “we don’t believe you”, and any hikes will be transitory, so I’d expect some more hawkish talk. I still think 50bp is likely at the next meeting but maybe they’ll also alert the market to more 50bp hikes in subsequent meetings. You’d think the curve would flatten again if this happens but general bearish sentiment might override this. Additionally, I’m not sure we know enough about their QT operation yet.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
FWIW, prior to GFC the inversions occurred in 2006 and early 2007. By onset of recession (December 2007 start) inversions gone … and spread widening.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
Looks like it typically takes close to a year. During that timeframe the Fed *thinks* they engineer a soft landing by hiking but then has to reverse course because the economy stalls and/or there are multiple crises that start occurring. I don’t see this time as any different.
shamrock
shamrock
2 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
The yield curve inversions in 2022 were very short lived, not long enough to affect lending and slow the economy.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
I’m not a fan of inversions predicting much of anything.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
2 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
I asked a similar question, and got an answer from Wolf Richter. Here it is without permission:
It signals that the Fed’s obese balance sheet is sitting on top of the long end of the curve — which was the purpose of QE, to bring down long-term yields. And the Fed locked down the short end of the curve via its policy rates. And the middle was allowed up a little (2.5% yield when CPI is 8% is just a minuscule step) and move toward the yields at the long end. Enough QT will resolve this issue, with long-term yields then more exposed to market forces. Already, little by little, yields at the long end are rising despite the Fed’s $9 trillion weight on top of it.

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.