You should have plotted the data on a log chart, rather than a linear chart. You can’t tell much from the linear chart.
get
2 years ago
That’s very interesting. We have real world numbers over a very long period of time vs. gov. fudged numbers.
I tested this against the CPI calculator and $55 in 1941 should cost approx. $,1080.00 today based on annual CPI. What a joke!
I found another calculator which allowed me to input the inflation variable and to arrive at a little over $15,000.00 in today’s dollars from $55 in 1941, means inflation averaged 7.3% per annum for the entire 80 years.
That sounds much more realistic and explains why the average person isn’t doing so well.
Since2008
2 years ago
Thank you Mish and Holley!!!
AWC
2 years ago
Meh, a silver quarter still buys a gallon of gas, like always. 😉
honestcreditguy
2 years ago
that is unreal, get ready little lady hell is coming for breakfast
Jackula
2 years ago
The inflection point increases in inflation are very well correlated with beginning of the massive spending on the wars in Vietnam and the middle east.
We all need to do our patriotic duty and enhance the riches of the MIC. “War is good business” /s
Eddie_T
2 years ago
So another quick observation is the clear inflection points I see in your original chart. I was of course looking for 1971…but interestingly I see inflections at 1966, 1995, and 2001, roughly speaking. Obviously local conditions matter, and the country was not nearly as homogenous in 1941 (or even 1971) as it is now, and we still have variations in local inflation, depending on what market you’re looking at.
But just the idea that a house in a fairly desirable market (which was the case for this house over all those years) could rise in value by an average of over 7.3% per annum is pretty compelling, don’t you think?
The ROI on the original investment would have been much higher, if the house had been leveraged to a 30 year mortgage in 1941. But mortgage rates then were between 4.5 and 5%…..they dropped to a generational low around 4.25% in ’46, which of course was about when people my parents age came into the market. 30 year fixed rate mortgages really didn’t come into vogue until the ’50’s.
I’d like to know the lot size. Wellesley is a very affluent town near the Mass. tech corridor so the latter two inflection points correspond to the tech boom.
But look at how much real estate tax has been paid in that time frame. Since 2014 alone (when it crossed the 8K line) it’s on the order of 70K. For the entire 80 year time frame Its probably 250-300K when you add it all up. That’s a staggering amount of lost money.
Why I bitch about the elimination of the SALT deduction. It matters.
xabungle
2 years ago
Chart scaling on y axis should be logarithmic to really see how much inflation has gone up.
Felix_Mish
2 years ago
This is a great chart and so many insightful comments!
Couple thoughts:
A land line similar to pre-80’s is still around $10-$30, last I checked. But, a house phone on top of Internet is $0. (ObiTalk and Google Voice) So, that $1800 is kinda high. Entertainment?
It’s almost unfair to compare electronics with taxes, what with them being inversions of each other. What Americans spend money on has gone up significantly in four areas:
Housing
Taxes
Medical
Education
There might be a fifth area, but I forget. Anyway, these areas grew at the expense of entertainment, food, clothing, transportation, etc.
This chart suggests the “inflation” in housing may be mostly in taxes! One might wonder about the “inflation” in education, too.
Eddie_T
2 years ago
I would be very interested in what the original owner paid for the house, and if it was bought with a mortgage and what the mortgage details were, if known. The present owner could also look on Redfin or Zillow and check the approximate value now. All this would allow a couple of interesting things to come out. One would be the ROI for the grandfather’s investment…another would be that it would allow a real number for inflation to be calculated for the house as well as the costs of ownership.
The jump in rate of inflation is more concerning than the jump in inflation. I didn’t think a rate could be constant for a decade. That means government is setting those rates rather than market forces.
ILHawk
2 years ago
Mish not happy with the Fed. Mish is oft not happy with the Government. Mish is critical of ethics of big business. Mish is critical of media. Mish says listen to the Government, Media and Big Business and get vaxed. Wha?
TCW
2 years ago
Do salaries follow the same curve? Seems like that is what really matters, not just the numbers.
RonJ
2 years ago
Real estate flier received yesterday. A house in N. Hollywood.
And LA has about one million guys sitting outside Home Depots every morning, who could build you a vastly improved version of that shack, for $50K.
Again, that delta is just another representation of pure theft. From guys competent enough to build something. To complete nothings too incompetent to do anything more productive than stupidly sitting on a couch “believing” in the magic productive powers of wall fungus.
Have you seen the standard for what passes for a million dollar house in NoHo these days?
5 illegals sourcing material from a scrapyard could slap one together over a weekend.
Weather is nice in LA. You don’t strictly “need” much in the way of standards. But that’s no reason why anyone should be forced, by a totalitarian junta, into paying tenfolds or more for what they are getting.
A lot MAGAer than any nation of illiterate, xenophobic homeless debt slaves will ever be.
In free countries with literate populations, If someone is competent enough to be able to build you a house for less than what’s currently available, you let them do so. It’s called a market.
Only in totalitarian dumps full of illiterates, are childish slurs considered some sort of viable alternative.
And that is probably an apartment without its own lot.
Democritus
2 years ago
Seems that dollars loose about half their value every 20 years… But hocus pocus with the inflation numbers makes the official inflation much lower.
LawrenceBird
2 years ago
Clearly “telephone” is not just telephone – nobody pays $150/mo for phone alone. Also wonder what is going on with the tax category from 2001 – 5% compounded is very high. I have property in a very high tax state and from 2000-2001 my compounded increase was 3.3%
“Clearly “telephone” is not just telephone – nobody pays $150/mo for phone alone. “
Wonder if that just telephone includes phone and cable (tv) or internet, which may be provided by the same company. Where I live $150 for phone and cable is on the low end and thats not even including internet. Land phone is cheaper than cell phone. Just cable (tv) and internet can easily top $150 where I live not including phone. The cheapest cell phone data plan offered again where I live is $90.
RonJ
2 years ago
The diminishing value of money. The graph sort of looks like a parabolic arc.
Every once in a while i see an ad pop up for an enterprising business that is selling now defunct 100 billion dollar Zimbabwe bills.
Your only off by a factor of 1000. It was 100 trillion notes!
TexasTim65
2 years ago
Obviously this is a northern home based on that 3K heating bill (yikes). Holly,you might want to have a look at the insulation (attic/walls) and windows esp if they aren’t double pane ones.
I found the real estate taxes part quite interesting.
1941-1981 (~40 years) it went from 0-2K
1981-2001 (~20 years) it doubled from 2K to 4K
2001-2012 (~10 years) it doubled from 4K to 8K
2012-2022 (~10 years) its really leveled off barely going from 8 to 9K
I wonder what happened at the municipal level in the last 10 years that stopped the runaway assessments. Does Holly or her mother etc suddenly qualify for a discounted rate for being over age 65 as some places do?
Maximus_Minimus
2 years ago
The basic math says: more people using dimishing resources results in higher cost of land and living. The lemmings knew this forever.
That’s why computers and clothing is so much more expensive now than a few decades ago. I mean, just look at the sheer amount of resources being used up by all those hundreds of millions of cell phones being made every year. No wonder computers cost so much more now, than they did in the 50s….
Correct me if am wrong that you indulged in some quick-witted sarcasm. If you re-tried to understand what I wrote, you will be become all the more knowledgeable.
But it’s every American’s duty to make lots of white babies.
ohno
2 years ago
I just read we’re going to lose up to 30k truckers that cross the Canadian/US borders due to vaccine mandates. Who knows how many of them will give in? And it’s not like self driving trucks will be replacing them in 2 weeks. We’re on the titanic. We already hit the iceberg. At one point in time I was going to go all in on the gardening stuff etc etc etc etc etc now that i’m older I dont feel like doing crap except just sit here and go down with the ship.
ohno
2 years ago
Ive been in the same place over 30 years I have my own disaster graph.
Bohm-Bawerk
2 years ago
For fun I decided to look at the costs based on gold.
Everything is a cheaper today when you price in gold, though taxes aren’t that much cheaper. Utilities are 66% off.
Ounces
of gold
Taxes
: 1951
6.007 2021
5.098
Water: 1951 0.348 2021 0.165
Electric: 1951 1.805 2021 0.407
Phone: 1951 3.002 2021 1.000
Gas: 1951 7.069 2021 1.689
Total: 1951 18.230 2021
8.359
I used the above data, from 1951 and 2021, and used price of gold in 1951 of $34.72 and 2021 $1800
I remember as a kid, I could buy a bag of chips and a coke for a Canadian silver quarter when quarters were made of silver. With that same silver quarters worth nowadays (melt value $4.24), I can buy that same bag of chips and coke and get at least 8 quarters back in change.
Pretty much everything gets cheaper over time. People people find more efficient ways to produce things, and adds capital which allows for more efficient production. Hence lowering costs.
That’s what the cost in a proper currency, like Gold, demonstrates. The difference between the price changes in arbitrarily debased fiat, and the price changes in Gold, is a reasonable first order estimate for the amount of crass theft which the debasement has facilitated.
Hence why one is, by now, at most a few percent wrong, when one states that, in America as of today, “all” property really is theft. Which is a pretty sad ending, for a country founded by people wishing to escape exactly that.
you nail it. price things in sound money that has been used for thousands of years to
Doug78
2 years ago
I noticed that after 2001 the part of RE taxes accellerated in propotion of the other cost. Did something happen then like a change of local administration?
If by RE taxes you mean property taxes, then yes: they follow the RE price extravaganza.
dbannist
2 years ago
Mish, can you extrapolate the inflation rate using just this house? I’d think that would be more accurate than the FED’s measuring stick.
gstegen
2 years ago
The data is interesting; however, looking at the individual line items suggests there were likely large scope changes embedded in some of the costs. examples: under water and sewer, the 0 for 1941 suggests a hand pumped well and outhouse or septic tank with no allowance for cost of building or maintaining either, and the 5x step change from 71 to 81 suggests possibly the house was connected to the city sewer system during that time span. The 6x increase in property taxes from 1951 to 1971 suggests something changed in what was being paid for by these taxes. The 4x+ increase in electricity from 1971 to 1981 suggests something changed, perhaps air conditioning was added. The $1800 for telephone in 2021 suggests a high end unlimited talk, text, and data plan that is drastically more than was provided by the typical landline plans of the earlier years.
Yes, those things matter to make a completely fair assessment….but they also don’t matter when it comes to how the cost for this home compares to the income needed to sustain it.
However, the home may have appreciated greatly during that time more than other homes just due to prime location or something, so that’s a bit of a wild card.
The 71-81 time frame featured incredibly high inflation. I was only a kid then (ages 6-15) but even as a kid I noticed inflation because comic books went from 12 cents to 35-40 cents and packs of baseball/hockey cards went from 5 cents to 20 cents and candy/chocolate bars etc also tripled or quadrupled in price. So the 5x increase could be nothing more than 70’s inflation and not additional services.
My guess is telephone now represents home phone, cell phone, cable, internet etc since a home land line does not cost 1800 a year. The internet didn’t exist prior to 95 and cable TV didn’t exist prior to about 75 so that expense is hard to make comparisons between today and anything from long ago.
Didn’t sound like it from Holly saying her grandfather lived in the home his whole life with the same standard of living. An addition to the home would be a change in the standard of living and invalidate the home model prior to the years that the extension existed.
We would have to ask Holly if something had changed then. Hard to speculate when you don’t have the facts.
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
Excellent work, Holly. Thanks.
What about insurance? My home insurance tracks about half of my property tax. Sad when people, even if they own free and clear, have to sell because they can’t afford (without taking on debt).
I tested this against the CPI calculator and $55 in 1941 should cost approx. $,1080.00 today based on annual CPI. What a joke!
I found another calculator which allowed me to input the inflation variable and to arrive at a little over $15,000.00 in today’s dollars from $55 in 1941, means inflation averaged 7.3% per annum for the entire 80 years.
That sounds much more realistic and explains why the average person isn’t doing so well.
Thank you Mish and Holley!!!
Mind boggling.
Determining Percentage Gain or Loss
Take the selling price and subtract the initial purchase price. The result is the gain or loss.
Take the gain or loss from the investment and divide it by the original amount or purchase price of the investment.
Finally, multiply the result by 100 to arrive at the percentage change in the investment.
860K sale price minus 3K purchase price = 857K net price appreciation (gain)
857K gain divided by 3K original purchase price = 285.7
285.7 multiplied by 100 = 28570% gain over 80 years.
Yearly average price appreciation = 35.875%
A bit more than your OER number.
Got real estate?
of gold
: 1951
6.007 2021
5.098
8.359
I’d think that would be more accurate than the FED’s measuring stick.
However, the home may have appreciated greatly during that time more than other homes just due to prime location or something, so that’s a bit of a wild card.