Wages are not keeping up with inflation.
Please consider the BLS Real Earnings report for December 2025.
All Employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from November to December, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.3 percent over the month due to no change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the average workweek.
Production and Nonsupervisory Employees
Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees decreased 0.2 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.
For the past five months, workers have lost ground. It’s even worse if you factor in reduced hours.
Average Real Weekly Earnings
Over the past five months real weekly earnings are down 0.7 percent for all private workers. Earnings are down 0.3 percent for production and nonsupervisory workers.
My numbers may be slightly different (+- 0.1) than BLS reports due to rounding methodology.
Real Average Hourly Earnings Detail
Since February 2020 (pre-Covid) real wages for all private workers is up just 34 cents from $11.01 per hour to $11.35 per hour.
Since February 2020 (pre-Covid) real wages production and nonsupervisory workers is up just 44 cents from $9.51 per hour to $9.95 per hour.
These numbers are my calculations as well, but they exactly match the BLS report.
Nominal and Real Average Hourly Earnings
The above chart really puts things into proper perspective.
Data for production and nonsupervisory workers dates to January 1964. Data for total private only dates to March of 2006.
Key Points for Production and Nonsupervisory Since 1964
- Nominal wages rose from $2.50 per hour to $31.76 per hour.
- Real wages rose from $8.03 per hour to $9.95 per hour.
Real wages are up a total of 23.9 percent in 61 years. Nominal wages are up 1,170 percent in the same period.
On an annualized basis, real wages are up 0.35 percent per year. Nominal wages are up 4.26 percent per year.
These real numbers assume you believe the CPI is an accurate measure of inflation. Do you?
The Fed says there is a benefit to inflation. Yeah right, the benefit is for banks, the government, and those with first access to money.
The Bright Side
But hey, look at the bright side. Trump says there is virtually no inflation. Meanwhile, for those in the real world, real earnings are negative for 5 months.
Is it any wonder people are upset?
Looking Ahead
I expect big jumps in medical care services.
There are 24 million people on ACA, and a majority of them are in Republican states.
For Obamacare discussion, please see my December 7, 2025 post How Much Will 4.5 Million Florida Residents Pay for Obamacare in 2026?
Here’s some interesting health care math on Obamacare in Florida.
What About Overall Health Care Costs?
Good question. I addressed that issue on December 8, 2025 in Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible
Let’s discuss 2026 health care premiums and what they mean to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
I project increases in health care will add 1.4 to 1.6 percentage points to headline PCE inflation before food, energy, shelter, or tariffs move prices at all.
And it’s the PCE, not the CPI that will have the Fed’s attention.
Related Posts
January 13, 2026: CPI Up 0.3 Percent in December, Price of Food Jumps, Gasoline Lower
Except for declines in gasoline and used cars, this was not a good report.
January 13, 2026: The Fed Has Missed Its Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures
The Atlanta Fed tracks various inflation targets. Let’s have a look.
I received more comments “Stick to the Economy”
But People Are the Economy
So I am writing about economics
If people want to go to ZH or distilled bury your head don’t talk “politics” sites they are free to go.
But I refuse to sit back and watch the Gestapo take over the US and say nothing.
If I am making people uncomfortable, well guess what – They deserve to be uncomfortable
Mish
Regarding the gestapo speak up now or never
I am an independent no party and you are probably a principled libertarian I am antiwar and anti fascist/anti gestapo
I have read your facts and opinions for many years the people complaining are 21st century know nothings!
Imagine complaining about MSM and then being butthurt by this blog
And they say cognitive dissonance isn’t a real thing
Mike Shedlock vs. msm Mike is factual and down to earth loves America and cares about people! msm all about money big corporations Randocalrissan I am assuming that you agree that the followers of Donny are know nothings
Politics totally affects us the economy the environment and our constitutional rights! Keep on using your freedom of the press and speech!
Mish,
A while ago I suggested you add a disclaimer to your political posts, something like:
Warning: The follow post is about politics and may trigger TWS snowflakes, use caution and discretion before reading.
Clearly these clowns hate political posts but can’t seem to stop from reading and commenting on them, they must be really triggered.
They should get back to Zerohedge where they can call black people “joggers” and I won’t even type the words they use for Jewish people.
Everyone who is not anti-Gestapo needs to abandon you, they aren’t good enough for your words. You are a shining example of why I read primarily analysis I disagree with. Doing that led me to find your words that are challenging and very much of your own making. You’re a reliable independent mind, and I can’t fathom why anyone would be so offended by your recent anti-authoritarian writing unless they are a racist MAGA.
Right on Independent opinions
“I received more comments “Stick to the Economy”
But People Are the Economy
So I am writing about economics”
The reality of politics:
I dont post here often but it is a daily read. Keep up the good work. I really appreciate your blog.
“stick to the economy” is the response of people too embedded in MAGA dreams to understand that the ICE issue is only one part of a coordinated effort to put more aspects of the US, INCLUDING THE ECONOMY, under the control of Trump and his buddies
Who else is twisting the arms of the oil industry to go into Venezuela, which government takes 25% of the sales of chips, who is extorting Europe for the “riches” of Greenland
It’s all intertwined
I came here daily for years for the analysis and insight you provided.
This place ain’t what it used to be, and I miss that.
100% agree that people are the economy. But there’s still a big difference between politics and economics. And between a good article and a poor one.
On the political topics, I’m not “uncomfortable”, I just think you’ve taken on topics outside your expertise, where have no “edge” in either ascertaining the truth nor getting the analysis right. Those articles on this site don’t add value for me, and they waste my time.
I do not appreciate being told what to think by anyone, but especially not by histrionic clickbait. It’s not hard to find things to complain about. It’s not even that hard to propose solutions. What’s hard is building a consensus for a solution that isn’t wrong.
I’m willing to be persuaded by someone who:
I’m not finding that here, not anymore. Even on the economic articles, such as this one, the recent expansion of snarky and unprofessional put-downs have made me question whether your analysis remains thoughtful and unbiased.
It’s your right to write what you wish, but the change in content, style, tone and quality is alienating a lot of your past readership.
Rather than insulting Mish, did you ever attempt a factual rebuttal?
It sounds like his analysis is just getting under your skin. Your emotions are triggered. Hence getting ‘disgruntled’.
Mish’s frustrations are coming out. But it’s not just Mish. And if the Republicans can’t be bothered to understand and course-correct, they will suffer historic losses in the mid-terms.
To answer the question, yes. See the “Four Native Americans” thread.
I have read Mish around 20 years. I have always passed over articles that did not interest me. You can do the same – duh….
Has Mish changed in 20 years? Another duh! Is that a bad thing, no, just human
Go spend all your time with a chatbot then and ask it to do exactly what you listed above. Problem solved.
You know you can copy and paste Mish’s article into a chatbot and simply ask it to do what you asked right? Why are you here whining?
You are here whining and posting comments because you seek validation from others. That’s a large part of why most of the “political” posts get all the comments and the economic ones don’t get any, everyone wants to believe they are right about their (political) views and they get angry when the majority rebukes them.
LOL, you don’t know me at all.
I’m not here for “validation from others”.
If I wanted validation, I’d ask a chatbot, they’re really good at telling you what you want to hear. Or I’d go to an echo-chamber site that shared my viewpoint. To my mind, there’s little value in validation, or in cherry-picking anecdotes that fit a preferred narrative.
I’m here to learn, hoping for insights from others who are thinking critically and deeply about topics that interest me. I hope to help others learn from any insights I might have.
Over the past 30 years, the value of Internet forums for me was in finding places with thoughtful, curious and open-minded people who were learning together, figuring out something new and unexpected to mutual benefit. This site used to be like that, but now it’s not. I’ll go looking.
For a “former commenter” you sure do comment a lot.
“But I refuse to sit back and watch the Gestapo take over the US and say nothing.
If I am making people uncomfortable, well guess what – They deserve to be uncomfortable”
I actually could not care less about being uncomfortable. Saying that the Gestapo is taking over the US just means to me that you are not a serious commentator. Just posting photos and anecdotes on ICE. Are you aware that even under Biden DHS admitted that there were over 500k illegal aliens who had been charged or convicted or serious crimes like murder, rape, and sex trafficking walking the streets. You can’t remove dangerous people by playing nice.
You need to vastly broaden your circle of political information. You are only seeing one side.
Mish,
Would it be possible to write a summary 2025 article that puts most of the economic data together?
E.g the articles about negative real earnings, job revisions, layoffs that are currently in different articles placed into a single article?
Eg I see high Q4 job layoffs article. But can we tie that to job creation numbers and/or real wages and/or interest rates for the last decade to put all of them in perspective and what can be observed as truly statistically different in 2025?
Perhaps it can give a clear picture of the true impact of Trump policies?
2025 like any year was evolving.
I did look at 2025 tariffs
https://mishtalk.com/economics/what-was-the-overall-impact-of-trumps-tariffs-in-2025/
But even then, how many times did Trump change his mind?
The bond market is in limbo through most of it.
Gold looks like stagflation signal. The stock market doesn’t.
Cross currents very difficult
Are wages of 0 counted on a per capita basis ? When actually measuring wages, i think most statistics dont factor in the unemployed.
This is okay as taco has some crumbs to give those who are struggling in his amazing economy that continues to mint more billionaires, as well significantly increases his net worth.
I would rather experience a loss of real wages than to receive no wages.
Is there any way to get median numbers? I’m willing to bet these numbers would be FAR worse.
Here’s something about outsourced free-lance jobs that the vast majority doesn’t know, legislators don’t know either, and it’s in the hundreds of millions annually since 1996:
Foreigners living abroad and working online for American companies DO NOT PAY INCOME TAXES IN THEIR COUNTRIES FOR INCOME FROM THE USA, BECAUSE U.S. COMPANIES DO NOT SEND 1099s ABROAD. Nobody reports their income to anyone!
If you are French computer programmer or an Italian consultant or translator, receiving work from American companies, you are receiving payments through Paypal or checks, which nobody reports in those countries (it’s still illegal, but no State checks Paypal or bank transfers).
This places US-based online workers at a significant competitive disadvantage.
Since a lot of US companies are transitioning from employees to free-lancers (or re-hire their employees as free-lancers), this will soon make US citizenship a liability!
usa is also in a very small minority of countries that tax their citizens world wide income. really a horrible empire we have here. i’m amerikan. i also have a passport of EU
You could be possibly paying double taxes. Portugal gave us exemptions for ten years. About to end, so we are selling the Villa and heading for Ecuador/
Something’s also happening with cars. Prices are skyrocketing. Leasing instead of buying is practically the norm now. And the monthly payments are getting higher and higher, equivalent to what was spent on rent twenty years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWQlV4Jah8E
The same thing is happening in France, with an added complication: cars are becoming increasingly unreliable, incapable of lasting hundreds of thousands of miles as they used to. Furthermore, they are increasingly impossible to repair outside of dealerships, which is also causing repair costs to skyrocket. As a result, used cars between 10 and 20 years old with low mileage are in high demand.
Lol. You guys are still buying cars? Lol. I got rid of that money albatross long time ago. Uber, Lyft, Instacart, DoorDash, etc. You have an army of people out there willing to work for you for peanuts and take on the liability.
If you “own” a car, you “own” a ton of liabilities:
InsuranceMaintenanceFuelRepairsTolls, parking, registration taxes, annual inspectionsAny third party service – e.g. Onstar or whateverNo Privacy, all new cars have radio tracking transmitters.
No thanks. It’s more like the car “owns” you. If I need a car it’s Uber or I can rent one for a short period.
of course I’ve been saying that for years here and got ridiculed. Who’s laughing now?
What you’re saying only applies if you live in a city. And even then, you’re at the mercy of an internet or phone outage, or even a blackout. I’m also assuming you no longer use cash. I can imagine your situation in that case.
I forgot to mention that I am walking distance (in the city) to restaurants, grocery stores and other venues in the area should the internet or any service “fail.” But yeah, won’t work if you live in a rural area or xburbs but if people make that choice then they will need to live with being a slave to the car.
By the way, what happens when the car fails and you’re out in the middle of nowhere? Lol.
a view of what happened last night
First of all, north Minneapolis is a touchy place, mostly black with some immigrants coming into the area. There are gangs there with automatic weapons. There are residents that are armed. There is an extreme distrust of the police there as the years of corrupt and brutal police tactics from the precinct there means that there is little or no reserve of goodwill
A Venezuelan ran from ICE, ended up on a porch front in a wrestling match with the ICE guy. Some people came down the stairs and started whupping with a broom and a snow shovel. The ICE agent shot one in the leg.
Instead of clearing out of there with the VZ guy and the two others, a perimeter of 4 blocks was set up by ICE. It’s obvious from the Good shooting, there will be no follow up. So why stay? Is it provocation? So now you have ICE agents basically trying to hold a portion of a city where they aren’t wanted, forming riot lines and firing pepperballs, teargas and flash-bangs. And obviously, more and more people are drawn to this spectacle from news, live-streams, social media and just the showy noise of it. So the whole event lasts for 3 or more hours when it could be done with in 20 minutes.
It was scary from this standpoint, it would not take much for one random gang-banger shoot an entire squad of ICE with an automatic weapon from between the closely spaced houses.
The scene I watched that proved the point of over-stay, toward the end of the event was when an ICE officer walked up to the protesters and said, “Hey, we’re gonna leave now, let’s just both walk away”, and it happened
With regard to the two ICE vehicles broken into, ICE rides around with 2 to 4 in a car. With a hundred on site, that’s 25 to 50 vehicles, which are pretty hard to park in residential congested, badly plowed (it’s N Mpls) street. This is a logistical problem because how are you gonna keep the vehicles safe (I wouldn’t park at night in many areas of N Mpls). People are always on the lookout for strange vehicles. So it becomes a logistical problem, how many more officers will be required when security needs to be maintained at vehicles? Maybe they will end up only raiding those places with parking lots.
Thanks!
Hey Mike I just paid $8 for an 11 ounce can of chock full nuts coffee but inflation and tariffs according to Donny had nothing to do with high price
Why are you buying chock full o nuts when you could drink legit coffee? That’s entirely on you and yes I am judging you for drinking that dreck
“The Fed says there is a benefit to inflation. Yeah right, the benefit is for banks, the government, and those with first access to money.”
A criminal organization stealing the value of your savings and earnings by “printing up” more of the medium of exchange…would be expected to also lie about it.
(OT) Warning: It is time to get your papers in order:
Kristi Noem says people should be prepared to prove US citizenship
And it applies to everyone as they are taking a shotgun approach despite claims of a targeted approach.
“If we are on a target, there may be individuals surrounding that criminal that we may be asking who they are and why they’re there and having them validate their identity,” Noem said.”
So the specific target, in general, becomes a moving target.
So I guess her puppy was wasn’t carrying its AKC papers.
To be fair, she was feeling like shooting that dog anyway
The trouble with letting the world’s sewage into your house is that it takes far too much scrubbing to get it all out.
Gonna be an interesting fight in the courts. Here’s the 4th Amendment (italics added):
“The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.“
Points of interest:
(1) Who counts as “the people”? Citizens? Legal immigrants? Illegals? All people?
(2) What makes a search or seizure “unreasonable”?
(3) What scope is allowable for ICE warrants? How many “persons” can be included in a “targeted” search? Is someone being in proximity to an illegal alien a “probable cause” to include them in a search?
(4) How can people accosted by ICE, in violation of the 4th Amendment, get suitable redress for injuries and lost time? What penalty exists for making false “Oath or affirmation” claims, to prevent wrongful Warrants?
Abuse of 4th Amendment seizure authority has been a problem for decades, always simmering in the background, rarely acknowledged by major media. Many citizens unjustly lost property, without any ability to get it back. Maybe the legal cleanup from this “national housecleaning” will finally sort the legality of that out too…
If inflation was being calculated correctly, real wages after inflation would theoretically not be expected to increase over time.
It would not be expected to track 100% so would expect there would be times when wages would dip and other times it would increase – but always tend to zero change.
There however an argument that real wages should increase with productivity increases.
Officially, productivity has increased by 1-2% per year for decades.
That is not showing up in real wages. It’s going to corporate profits, to the 1%.
The “ICE vs. illegals” political theater is partly to distract “Main Street” people fighting each other instead of revolting against the wealthy elites (in both parties!) who have captured all of that 1-2% increase for themselves.
For anyone interested in purchasing the new iPhone 17 PRO? It is impractical and way more complicated to use. HIGHLY DISCOURAGE its purchase!
The only things that seem to work is the spyware and big brother interference with simple tasks.
What happened with the easy and intuitive nature of the thing?
Real median income has been negative since the 70s
In 1970 median household income was almost $10K annually (https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1971/demo/p60-80.html), by the end of 2024 it was $83,730, an almost 8.4x increase (US Census Bureau Median Household Income)
The CPI index rose from 37.8 in Jan 1970 to 315.6 by the end of 2024, an 8.35x rise, or 7.9x if you take it from the end of 1970
On the face of it, median income either matched or barely etched out inflation
However, while the shelter component in CPI increased by 11.42x from the end of 1970, median home prices (US New One Family Houses Sold Annually Median Price) as recorded by the US Census Bureau rose by 16.76x.
I couldn’t find a longer source for rent, but median asking rent (as reported by the US Census Bureau) rose 4.6x since March 1988, while the CPI shelter component rose by 3.26x during the same period.
In other words, it is quite likely shelter is being underestimated by the CPI. This alone would likely mean real median household incomes have decreased since the 1970s, despite the fact real GDP grew by over 3x during this period. This implies the wealthy took the dividends of this growth, perhaps due to asset prices rapidly rising in value once the gold standard was removed, and asset owners were typically the wealthy.
However, despite the numbers showing a weakening of income, to many it does feel as if standards of living have improved. This may be partially explained by rising household debt, which grew from very low levels to a high of 60% in the mid 60s before leveling off to around 50% in the 70s, but then in the mid 80s finally exceeded the 60% threshold all the way to near 120% on the eve of the great recession, before receding from around 80% today.
This 30% rise in debt has helped mask a weakening in income. Essentially, the rich have generously lent some of their real GDP earnings to the renters in their fiefdoms. However, debt levels for the average person might actually be higher, since the rich households hold lots of assets that are at all time high valuations, which likely reduces the overall household debt figures.
Apologies for the long rant, just felt it fit the topic.
Excellent.
Everyone needs to remember that eCONomics is a social science, not a hard science. Moreover, the high priests at The Fed use models that absolutely require infinite and compounding growth. Unfortunately, the reality (determined by math, physics, chemistry etc.) is that people can procreate much faster that technology can innovate. Hence, the eventual resource and energy scramble, made worse by political mis-allocation and mis-management (to largely enrich themselves and their oligarch supporters) of precious capital and resources. Even though humans still need fundamentally the same things (food, shelter, water, energy) they needed in the 1970’s to live a decent life there is a reason the eCONomic priests keep changing the way the calculate inflation. The reason is pure propaganda. Anyone who was lucky enough to have had grandparents that told you how they successfully navigated companies and wealth through two world wars and a great depression know exactly what is coming. There are over 8 billion souls competing for the energy and resources that are required for a high standard of living. There will be NO deflation or decrease in the cost of living unless one of two things happens; 1) real fusion reactors come online or 2) there is a MASSIVE decrease in the human population (less real demand). Do get mad, this isn’t personal, it’s just MATH, PHYSICS, CHEMISTRY, etc.
bingo. you nail it.
Neither Property taxes nor Homeowners’ insurance is in the CPI or PCE.
Shelter is dramatically understated
Apologies, I just made the comment about using median numbers, not making it down the comments far enough.
Thank you for this.
In the 1960’s, American workers took home 60%+ of GDP. Now they take in less than 53% while being squeezed hard by inflation and the insurance cartel.
American factories pay a 50% tariff on Steel, Aluminum, Copper and thanks to the POTUS’s arrogance have restricted access to strategic metals like silver and the rare earths.
It takes real creativity to get around Trumps interference.
Your first paragraph is solid.
Your second is a non-sequitur. Factories are a tiny part of the economy and the decline of wages happened over decades, long before tariffs or strategic metals politics entered the mix. Nothing to do with wages as a share of GDP.
wrong. we manufacture a great deal. just don’t need tons of humans working in them anymore. especially any unschooled and not educated in running high tech machines.
Sure, but Frosty was implying a causal relationship, and policy changes in the past 1 year are not why, over 40 years, labor’s share of income dropped from 60+% of GDP to under 53%.
It’s worth noting that my former employer announced raises and promotions in the first quarter of the year. I don’t know how widespread that might be but waiting until April might be more accurate.
Henry Ford paid wages that allowed his workers to afford his products and raised the standard of living for hundreds of thousands and eventually millions. He did become fabulously wealthy, but shared far more on a percentage basis than todays oligarchs.
The richer the top gets, the poorer the bottom gets. Trickle down economics is just that, a trickle. Wealth needs to flow and the entire society to live rewarding lives.
I pay well and it shows in the quality and enthusiasm of the work that gets done.
I read Ford’s autobiography and toured his innovation museum in Detroit. He was way ahead of his time and a truly great man. He even warned of the financialization of the economy. I don’t give those accolades easily.
The Ford museum is spectacular. His vision in buying and moving the labs of many famous inventors to the site is genius and the labs of Edison and a working Tesla generation site is there. All of the transportation history (rail, auto, air) plus the evolution of appliances and even a couple of Stradivarius violins are displayed.
For all the crap it takes, Detroit is a pretty cool city. Might be one of the most improved in the US in the last 10 years. Milwaukee is a pleasant surprise as well.
Like Mish, I am not a fan of Chicago.
This model of paying employees more to buy more of my cars smells like the nepotism between AI companies – you buy my product and I will buy yours.
Unfortunately, Ultra low wages encourage people to seek out social assistance. Business profits through low wages are subsidized by social programs.
Corporate welfare at its finest.
The band DEVO was on to this in the 80’s
So why aren’t wages booming with all the deportation of those “illegals” stealing jobs and bringing down wages? Even the ones still here are now hiding for fear of arrest so many are not working.
Add to it the 11000 boomers that are retiring every day. Wages should be soaring like the end of the world, what gives?
Perhaps the MAGA geniuses can chime in an enlighten us with their 5D thinking….
5D — D in Reading, D in Social Studies, D in Science, and D in Math
Wages are great for people that perform relevant tasks.
Maybe shows they weren’t working after all, right? Just sitting and taking bennies…
This is a good read on Trump’s promised manufacturing boom by the WAPO.
The article goes beyond the headline giving you a good history lesson, too. Warning to readers tho, the article is long.
https://apple.news/Al4dc4wOcQ1ihpJGO_0JDow
I don’t need to read the article to know what is says. During Trump’s first administration he bragged endlessly about Foxconn opening a huge plant in Wisconsin. They opened a token plant 1/10 the size they were supposed to and it never went operational. Anyone with a functioning brain knew this would happen because U.S. labor is too expensive to manufacture here.
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/what-happened-to-foxconn-a-look-at-the-1-2-billion-spent-and-where-it-all-went/3759518/
In 2018, President Donald Trump came to southeast Wisconsin to proclaim the coming of “the eighth wonder of the world.”
He was standing on a plot of land near Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin – a mostly-rural village of 27,000 people nestled between Racine to the east, and Interstate 94 to the west.
That “eighth wonder” was a sprawling new manufacturing plant, to be built in Mount Pleasant by a giant Taiwanese tech company called Foxconn, which promised to hire more than 13,000 local people to build high-definition TV screens.
Local and state officials said it would be the beginning of a technological renaissance in the area, which they planned to call “Wis-con Valley.”
It never happened.
That was all the “success” record anyone needed yet morons still voted for the clown again. This time around won’t be any different.
Trillions of investment dollars are at currently at play, it takes time for them to navigate through the system and eventually hit the ground running.
Lots of lip service to the bully Trump. When foreign factory builders bring in the people to set up the plants and train the staff, Trumps goon squads come in, then arrest, harass, humiliate and deport them.
Lesson learned. See the Foxconn plant in Wisconsin.
Huge stranded assets.
The US is not a safe or stable place to invest.
At the rate it’s going, Trump will be out of office and all those trillions won’t ever materialize. All you gotta do is wait 1102 days to watch it happen.
Trump and Biden put an extra 5 trillion into the economy during the covid fiasco. Now, these clueless pols attack an affordability crisis with more spending. My guess is inflation will be around for the rest of my life unless interest rates are raised and/or spending is decreased.
U.S workers just took home their smallest share of capital since 1947
U.S workers just took home their smallest share of capital since 1947, at least | Fortune
The article is interesting, but the headline makes no sense.
Smallest share of GDP.
St. Louis Fed used to put out a quarterly report showing “shares of national income”, with lines for labor, corporate profits, and small-biz proprietors’ income.
Corporations have been capturing a larger and larger share of the pie, driving wealth inequality. The Fortune article goes into that. It gets a lot wrong, but is better than Mist’s recent pieces. It’d be fun if Mish took up that topic and straightened them out!
Extremes of wealth inequality drive populist revolts.
our economy needs people with higher ed to run the modern computerized factories and services and farming equipment……..this is nothing new. 200 years ago, most couldn’t read or write.
Some of that is the decline in the amount of labor: The portion of the working age population actually working continues to decline. And since the role out of the jab in early 2021, disability has spiked, with the angle of increase steeper ever since.
It’s not a decline in the amount of labor. 100% of GDP is produced by labor. Non-workers by definition aren’t producing GDP.
The decline in labor’s share of GDP is because corporate profits’ share has risen. Labor’s decline has been going on for decades as interest rates fell and government policy favored high-profit monopolies and oligopolies at the expense of workers.
don’t need armies of men to build autos or whatever in 21st century. machines do the back breaking work. even carpenters don’t need the muscles they did in past decades and centuries.
25 years ago, 67% of adults were in the labor force. Now it is less than 62%. How is that not less labor? Presumably replaced to some extent by machinery (capital).
I grant you that government favors oligopolies, etc. and distorts the economy to the detriment of middle-class workers. Including things govt does to decrease the supply of labor. But I don’t think you should ignore shrinkage of the labor supply in this particular calculation.
You’re 100% right that workforce participation is lower than it used to be. My point is different, that the “share of GDP going to labor” is (a) different from what you’re talking about, and (b) also lower than it used to be.
The way it’s measured, GDP is only produced by the people actually working. So the 62% who are working “produce 100%” of the measured GDP. From GDP’s perspective, the other 38% are consumers but not producers.
However, the 62% who are workers do not “receive” 100% of the GDP, even though they produce it. Those workers only receive (in pay and benefits) about 53% of what they produce (the 100% of GDP). That 53% value is down from over 60% in the 1940-1960s.
With workers getting 53% of GDP, what happens to the other 47% of GDP? That is siphoned off to corporate profits, profits of small-business owners, etc. That “47%” used to be more like 35%, so it’s grown a lot over the past 50 years. Basically the “top 1%” folks are skimming a lot more than they used to, and the regular workers aren’t getting paid as much (relative to their production) as they used to.
This drives wealth inequality, makes it hard for families to afford houses, and most of the other major economic problems we face.
Your comment reminds me that in terms of personal prosperity, the decline in workforce participation (67% down to 62%) also makes things worse. Those not working must be supported in some fashion by those who are. At 67% participation rate, there’s 33% non-workers. So there were 2 workers for each non-worker. Nowadays at 62/38, there’s only 1.5 workers supporting each non-worker. The non-workers require higher taxes etc. from the workers, leaving the workers with less for themselves.
What does a tyrannical fascist dictator like Donny do when the economy is collapsing?
Bomb Iran
Have us focus on foreign policy!
Donny is the biggest loser ever he has failed at everything
Maga is a cult of personality
A handful of billionaires tell him what to do
Un American self serving bandits more war and low wages
Did not take him long to put out the old war playbook.
Normally it takes leaders a number of years in power to have to revert to this.
Jack right on
Jack the regime is moving fast to distract us from economic collapse
– Wages are not keeping up with inflation. > The fast food workers in my area, ALL make $40,000.00 per year minimum (2080 hrs x $20ph = $41,600.00 per year. How do they get paid this much now, and you want to pay them how much more?
> How about $50,000.00 per year to hand a bag with a burger and fries to an awaiting shopper in their car. Yeah that sounds as stupid as I could come up with… So what do actual workers get paid? Customer Service (think medical etc.). So maybe they deserve at least double and especially the medical call takers, No? So $40ph or $83,200.00 per year might do it, no?
So now we are looking at $120,000.00 per year for an assembly person at an automotive plant? At this rate, an educated person with a college degree, would be making what? $250,000.00 per year minimum, No? It just gets more and more ridicules, and for what? We will have to pay Doctors and Lawyers at least $500,000.00 per year just to come for an interview… This is absurd to say the least. Stop it already!!!
So should we just pay the same wages for 30 years and ignore inflation? You sound like a business owner that is upset because he can’t still buy a candy bar for a quarter. People like you are part of the problem.
Haha John but you have a point candy bar $2 dollars and more where I shop
gee, someone doesn’t really understand inflation and how the economy works
first of all, no-one gets 40 hrs at fast food–32 hours max so no bennies, no overtime
you want more money, you schlep yourself to another job and put another 4 to 6 hours in
And where in the US is a livable wage under $40K?
you are exactly the person pushing for your burger to be made by an illegal worker
Good point
Yes, that money belongs to the ultra wealthy!
Your math is retarded
Stu lunch out is $10 dollars and up
Rents $25 thousand per year $20 per hour does not pay for necessities
What I don’t understand is why the national conversation is always about wages, government controls in healthcare, and generally subjective as to what is going to be done to help.
The conversation is never about entrepreneurship, creativity, or pushing the individual to find a way for themselves to be successful. Do something meaningful and value added that generates income. That’s what makes America better than the rest of the world and that attitude has been slipping away with decades of apathy.
“The conversation is never about entrepreneurship, creativity, or pushing the individual to find a way for themselves to be successful.”
I think it’s the collapse of the educational system. I honestly think AI will make people, the lazy class of people, dumber too. Many college professors complain AI is being used to do all the research and even write the term papers. I don’t exempt myself either, I now use AI as my primary search engine and research tool, it’s too easy to make you lazy and forgo real research all on your own.
At the high school level, reading, writing and arithmetic are at all time lows so maybe these schools should stop wasting hundreds of millions of dollars on football stadiums for high school students.
I’ve done the entrepreneur thing. You know what would encourage a lot of other people to try it?
Universal healthcare.
It’s hard to work without a paycheck when you’ve got over a grand a month in insurance alone.
Bingo again!
OR, make enough to afford it.
If you think wages not keeping up with inflation is bad now, wait until the Executive branch has full control over monetary policy.