The BLS Real Earnings Report for September shows another monthly decline in real wages.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
- Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees increased 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Real Hourly Wages Percent Change Month Over Month
Real wages have only risen materially for a few months since the beginning of 2021.
Nominal Wages Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker
The Atlanta Fed has a Wage Growth Tracker that differs a bit from the BLS.
I created a few new charts from their data, and incorporated real (inflation-adjusted) wages as well.
Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker vs BLS Nominal
In nominal terms, the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker has been better than the numbers shown by the BLS.
That means real wages will be a bit better as well.
Real Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker vs BLS Real
I created the above chart using the Atlanta Fed 3-month weighted numbers deflated by a 3-month average of the CPI-U.
The numbers are a little better than the BLS, but like the BLS, real wages year-over-year are down 18 straight months.
CPI Much Hotter Than Expected Led by a Surge in Price of Food and Shelter
For a look at the latest CPI numbers, please see CPI Much Hotter Than Expected Led by a Surge in Price of Food and Shelter
Also note The Cost of Food Jumps Another 0.8 Percent in September
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
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Mish
As predicted in
1963 in my Money and Banking book, Dr. Pritchard’s (a man 30 times smarter than
Albert Einstein), economic syllogism posits:
require prompt utilization if the circuit flow of funds is to be maintained and
deflationary effects avoided”…
aggregate demand and therefore produces adverse effects on gDp”
time-deposit banking, would tend to have a longer-term debilitating effect on
demands, particularly the demands for capital goods.”
Real investment,
e.g., CapEx, as contrasted to OpEx, “is any type of expense that a company
capitalizes (“amortized or depreciated, strait-line or MACRS accelerated, over
the life of the asset”), or shows on its balance sheet as an investment, rather
than on its income statement as an expenditure.”
Lending
by the banks is inflationary (increases the volume and turnover of new money).
Lending by the nonbanks is noninflationary (results in the turnover of existing
money, a velocity relationship). The fallacious Gurley-Shaw thesis has run its
course. The Keynesian economists have finally achieved their objective, that there is no difference between money and liquid assets.
existing savings, the authorities should pursue every possible means for
promoting the orderly and continuous flow of monetary savings into real
investment.
purest kookery
So real wages are falling, and profits are soaring. So much for this inflation growing out of “too much money chasing too few goods”. Chasing its way right into the bosses’ pockets.
Bull pups are for close combat. You’re much more likely to survive a battle with a deer rifle, a good hiding spot, and patience.