Obamacare three-year extension vote coming up in 2026.
House GOP Dissidents Side With Democrats
Please note House GOP Dissidents Back ACA Vote, Siding With Democrats
Rep. Mike Lawler (R., N.Y.) joined three Republicans from Pennsylvania swing districts—Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie—in signing a petition led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) that would force a vote on a three-year extension of the subsidies. The Republicans acted after the House GOP blocked votes on compromise measures aimed at extending and trimming the subsidies, a response to GOP concerns about abuse of the system.
With their signatures on the discharge petition, Jeffries now has the 218 needed to force a vote, which wouldn’t likely occur until next year.
“I continue to believe any extension should be targeted, fiscally responsible, and include income eligibility limits and safeguards against fraud, similar to the bipartisan discussions underway in the Senate,” Lawler said. “But when leadership blocks action entirely, Congress has a responsibility to act. My priority is ensuring Hudson Valley families aren’t caught in the gridlock.”
In a television appearance earlier in the morning, Johnson said Republicans would tackle healthcare reform in the new year and warned against using bypassing leadership.
“Doing an end-run around the majority party, the speaker or the regular process is not the best way to make law,” he said on CNBC.
Leadership Out of Touch
Mike Johnson and Republicans have lost control of the agenda.
By blocking a vote on any extension under any circumstances, Democrats get their wish of a vote on a 3-year extension of Obamacare.
I warned about this on many occasions, and now here we are.
November 7, 2025: Democrats Offer a One-Year Obamacare Extension Deal. Should Republicans Accept?
Think this through from every angle.
How I see it: “At some point, Republicans have to make a decision about whether or not they want to hold out for 100 marbles or accept 98.”
Republicans would be crazy not to accept this offer. It’s just one year. And they can block further extensions easily.
Had Republicans accepted a one-year extension they could have safely moved the debate past the mid-term elections.
November 27, 2025: Trump Says It ‘May Be Necessary’ to Extend Obamacare Subsidies
Trump rejected a one-year deal. Any guesses for how long now?
Well guess what. After refusing a one-year extension deal, Trump may agree to a multi-year extension.
Obamacare Q&A of the Day
Q: Is there any time to fix Obamacare to Johnson’s satisfaction by December 15?
A: NoQ: Johnson says he won’t hold a vote. What’s gonna happen?
A: If Johnson does not agree to hold a vote, all the Democrats and a handful of Republicans will force a vote by means of discharge petition. This is the same setup as the Epstein forced vote.Q: What then?
A: It’s precisely hard to say, but Republicans will be scrambling. It’s entirely possible to see a multi-year extension plus extra goodies to buy Republican votes.Q: What does Trump want?
A: Free money. UBIQ: Wouldn’t that be worse?
A: Of course, the spigot would never stop.Q: Could anyone have possibly predicted this turn of events?
A: Absolutely not. Oh … wait a second.
Twisted Logic Addendum
Trump says the “unaffordable care act has been a disaster ” that it “may be necessary” to extend it.
Thanks! I made a note to add that to my book of twisted government logic if and when I get to writing it.
December 12, 2025: Two Failed Senate Health Care Bills, Eyes on the House
The Senate rejected proposals from Democrats and Republicans. What now?
Four Republicans Break Ranks Voting for Obamacare Extension
Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, both Alaska Republicans, joining Democrats to support it.
“I think giving people more money to pay for their deductible is a great idea. I think we probably still need to do something on premiums, because you can’t use the HSAs on premiums,” Hawley said. “That’s just the law. So you know, there’s probably more to do there.”
Everyone knows there is a problem but there is no means to fix it other than a budget resolution.
A majority could have done something under Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, but that something was to let benefits expire.
Republicans own the problem now, and it shows in the polls.
Please note a Growing number of House Republicans sign on to effort to force vote on ACA subsidies — defying Speaker Johnson
As House Speaker Mike Johnson eyes a vote next week on a to-be-announced health care package, a growing number of House Republicans are revolting against leadership by trying to force a vote on extending the expiring Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies.
Nearly a dozen Republicans — many from swing districts — have signed onto dueling bipartisan discharge petitions to extend and reform the subsidies in the hopes of bypassing leadership and triggering a vote on the House floor.
What happened?
“I continue to believe any extension should be targeted, fiscally responsible, and include income eligibility limits and safeguards against fraud, similar to the bipartisan discussions underway in the Senate,” Lawler said. “But when leadership blocks action entirely, Congress has a responsibility to act. My priority is ensuring Hudson Valley families aren’t caught in the gridlock.”
Republicans refused a one-year extension.
Then they refused any vote at all on subsidies.
Now we have a discharge position in the House to force a vote on a three-year extension. And we have four Republican Senators willing to go along.
Q: Who could have possibly predicted this?
A: Me
Q: Does anyone want a one-year extension now?
A: Sorry, the question is moot.
Republicans Own Health Care Now, What Will They Do With It?
On December 7, I noted Republicans Own Health Care Now, What Will They Do With It?
Republicans now own health care and will get the blame no matter what happens. Those who are simmering right now will be extremely angry when the actual bills have to be paid.
That starts January 1 for most and February 1 for others.
Expect the Health Care issue to blow sky high in early 2026, with a big Republican scramble on what to do.
Some readers claim a one-year extension fixes nothing. Yes, so what?
A one-year extension would have given Republicans a full year to make a decent proposal. They had four years in Trump’s first term and blew it.
It’s not like they did not see this coming. Well strike that, it’s clear that ideology is blinding.
Ideology explains why nothing is better than 98 marbles out of 100 (plus a full year to come up with a plan).
So, don’t tell me Republicans don’t own this problem. They do.
How Much Will Health Care Premiums Rise?
On December 8, I commented Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible
Good Morning America!
Healthcare is now approximately 16.66 percent of the entire PCE basket, much larger than all durable goods combined, and only 1.5 points behind housing.
2026 medical-cost trends are running 8.5 percent to 9.5 annual percent increases. Those projected increases will add 1.4 to 1.6 percentage points to headline PCE inflation before food, energy, shelter, or tariffs move prices at all.
Again, this ignores the huge Obamacare impact on 1 out of 6 people.
How Much Will Obamacare Premiums Rise?
The base hike is about 26 percent but factoring in the cancellation of subsidies, the average increase is 114 percent.
I discussed that in How Much Will 4.5 Million Florida Residents Pay for Obamacare in 2026?
Mapping the Uneven Burden of Rising ACA Marketplace Premium Payments
Please consider Mapping the Uneven Burden of Rising ACA Marketplace Premium Payments due to Enhanced Tax Credit Expiration by KFF.
Enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of this year. Enrollees currently receiving premium tax credits at any level of income will see their federal assistance decrease or disappear if enhanced premium tax credits expire, with an average increase of 114% to what enrollees pay in premiums net of tax credits. Since premium payments are capped based on income and family size, there is little geographic variation in the resulting increases in premium payments for enrollees with incomes below 400% of poverty. Out-of-pocket premiums for people with incomes below 400% of poverty will increase by hundreds of dollars to over $1,500 per person on average.
Nearly all Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace enrollees get a subsidy, with about 92% to 93% of the 2025 enrollees (around 20-22 million people) receiving premium tax credits (subsidies) to help pay for health insurance
Those subsidies go away and average impact counting expired subsidies is over 100%
I am not talking deductibles (which are also rising), but actual premiums.
Here’s an extreme example: Aa 64-yr old couple earning $90,000/yr would go from paying $637/month to a jaw-dropping $3,176/month. That’s five times for the same policy. That would be $38,000 per year in premiums, 42 percent of gross income.
Speaker Johnson’s proposal is to give this person $1,000 to $1,500 a year to buy their own health care. The new annual benefit would not start until 2027. So Republicans could then claim a reduction in costs.
This half-baked plan would cover $125 per month out of the $3,176 per month bill. And it’s why some republicans are running scared.
Might I suggest a one-year extension and taking a year to come up with something sensible?
Oh wait, I already did. But that option is no longer on the table. What’s on the table now is a full three-year extension.
Put people over 55 on medicare and kick all illegals out of all government healthcare benefits.
Which government healthcare benefits do illegals (presumably you mean undocumented immigrants) receive that you would cut off? Specifically.
– Republican Dissidents > There is the Problem… RINO’s!
>> When do you hear about Democrat Dissidents? Rarely if ever, as they stick together. The Dems work in lock step for what the Majority in their Part wishes for. Phony Republicans play games, look for goodies to stay in power, and lie like hell to the People. They are worse than Democrats, as they tell you to your face, while these 4+ RINO’s Stab you and there Constituents right in the Back!!
– Leadership Out of Touch > I agree and what a failure to not know the Vote BEFORE it was taken. “Knowing your Audience” is a big rule to miss, or judge incorrectly imo.
– Mike Johnson and Republicans have lost control of the agenda. > They never had control by the looks of the votes.
– By blocking a vote on any extension under any circumstances, Democrats get their wish. I warned about this on many occasions, and now here we are. > Utter Failure by the Republicans! You had it right all along!
What an absolute mess created by their Speaker, and The President! They seem to shoot themselves in the foot over and over again… I can’t believe they can’t get on the same page, or even understand what page they are on!! I am started to get annoyed with this erratic behavior. They need to “Pull Themselves Together” and quickly. Ugh!!!
Current article on vote; https://www.foxnews.com/politics/speaker-johnson-ekes-out-healthcare-bill-victory-after-house-gop-obamacare-rebellion
The empire is broke. You can’t afford all the guns and all the butter. A vast global empire, endless unwinnable proxy wars, cradle-to-grave services, corporate cronyism, an Orwellian security state apparatus, gargantuan NGO slush fund schemes, incessant overseas meddling, deliberate and costly inefficiencies, wasteful earmarks, no-bid contracts, and many other cost burdens have brought us to a reckoning where even hard choices are about to be taken away, and just a hideous economic debris field of pain awaits the nation.
All true, but better butter than guns. Or maybe extra virgin olive oil. Besides, republicans have been pretending to have an alternative to Obamacare for 10 years. If they couldn’t produce it by now, they kind of have to let Obamacare such as it is limp along. A couple thousand bucks for an HSA is ridiculous. Our healthcare and insurance systems are a clusterf*** and need a total revamp.
Outlaw all insurance companies except for catastrophic who are nothing more than socialism for GROSS private profit. Watching two very different cities, Promedica is buying up nearly the city of Toledo. I ran their financials, and they shown PROFITS of $17,000 in one year for every man, woman, and child in Northwest Ohio. WTF!!!
In Pittsburgh, UPMC is opening a BILLION dollar building (yes, one building) and is the largest employer in PA.
WHY??? Out of some “free economy” ideology? Let’s be real, is not a free market anymore.
We’re talking $320 BILLION per year as a middle man between you and your health care.
All to say, AFTER exec payouts, dividends, etc, the health providers industry clears $40 BILLION every year.
Grifting at it’s best
That’s just the way it is and it ain’t gonna change. There’s nothing we can do about. We are the little people and we don’t add up to jack shiite.
Not at a recessionary $56/bbl, but maybe after another war for oil to drive up prices…
….The Trump administration is asking U.S. oil companies if they’re interested in returning to Venezuela once leader Nicolás Maduro is gone, three people familiar with the discussions told POLITICO.
And so far, the answer is a hard “no.”
It’s never going away. It will just get more expensive and worse.
That is when you will be open to voting for a logical AI to take over and be rid of old-style government and its Remora politicians.
Don’t worry. Just read the headlines and you will be happy. 🙂
“18 Trillion in Tariff Revenue in 10 Months”
“I’ll pay you tomorrow for a hamburger today!”
No Funding For HeathCare – Full Funding For ALL
‘Epstein’ Pentagon MIC War$.!
Why does it make sense to delay a vote until 2026?
Maybe it takes a bitter premium shock to marinate over the holidays in order to concentrate Republican minds….
The question is whether the Senate will put a vote on the floor for a public accounting which will haunt the 2026 mid- terms.
Another filibuster would be the cowardly way out. Overcoming that may require major arm-twisting by Trump. That in turn may require a tsunami of outrage from the MAGA base.
If the Senate does hold a vote, I believe the margin in favor will be quite large because affordability is THE issue for 2026. In any case, Republicans will have put a big stain on their brand for embracing this tar baby so long. STUPID!
This is why we have a $38T and growing debt!
There is ALWAYS some stakeholders/constituency that will be upset about losing tax benefits or paying more for something, such that the easiest path for a politician that wants to get reelected is to just continue extending/increasing the benefit in question.
Taking away $$$ is hard to impossible, as we are seeing with this ACA subsidy brouhaha. Now you know why these ENHANCED subsidies were extended two times already.
It irks me that I worked hard and saved to pay my bills to now have to pay taxes to pay others bills via some vote buying politician. The money printing to support this fiasco will never end
No worries! Your taxes were actually cut!
You’re paying taxes now to fund your own Social Security and Medicare coverage in the future. You’ll get it back (just ask all the Boomers on this blogsite that don’t want their SS/healthcare subsidies cut).
Why so glum? Angry?
Well i agree with you. Everyone has a hand out to the gov ment. They tend to complain when someone else is getting handed the money. Not much difference between a dem policy for the poor or a rep tax break for the wealthy. Both add to the debt. Maybe its time for some responsibility from congress.
`We need “Medicare for All.” It’s the only way to control health care prices.
lol, tell me about how medicare is run. this slogan is idiotic and demands no thinking.
Who is going to pay for the Medicare for all costs
Taxpayers. But they – and their employers – would be relieved of the cost of private health insurance.
How much does an MRI cost in Japan?
How much does an MRI cost in U.S.? With “insurance”? Without “insurance”? Cash price?
If Al Capone and Lucky Luciano came back they’d be healthcare CEOs. This racket is better than bootlegging during Prohibition.
I had an MRI on my left shoulder a few months ago. The hospital billed Medicare $4,348. Medicare approved a payment of $278.27!
Assuming that the hospital is not providing services at a loss, then the lowest amount they are willing to accept, that also contains some profit, is the $278.27.
People who pay more than this, either on a cash basis or through their various insurance plans are adding to the hospitals profit.
If everybody paid $279 for a MRI, what would happen?
They would have to layoff insurance workers, hospital employees, Health related executives would have to sell their 2nd and 3rd vacation homes and more!
‘Aa 64-yr old couple earning $90,000/yr would go from paying $637/month to a jaw-dropping $3,176/month”
$30k to $35k is the going rate for health care for a family. This is not jaw-dropping in my mind. Sure….it sure takes a big chunk of disposable income but somebody has to pay for those who don’t contribute to the system.
I have a family member whose family health insurance plan (Husband, Wife, 1 child) is $34k a year with a $6k deductible. She makes $60k a year. The employer now shows what the actual cost is to the employer to show how much they are paying. It is a perk but really it is like your making that much more money in salary in case you think the grass is greener on the other side.
Luckily here employer pays 50% so she is only paying$16.5k a year. But yes, 27% of her salary is paying for health care.
Somebody has to pay for those that don’t – Exactly!
How much is that exactly? I’d like to know how much, exactly we are paying for those who don’t. Does this assume the system is already providing services at the lowest possible cost?
That’s silly. Everyone at the employer is covered, and they are all paying. That’s just the real cost of health insurance in our system (for that particular employer which may be covering a small amount of employees and so has little clout with the health insurance providers)
The portion of an employees employer paid health care is also a tax free benefit that costs the US government hundreds of billions of $$ each year.
With Trump shouting about the supposed $Billions coming in from his tariffs, why not build on that number by eliminating the employer tax deduction for providing health insurance to employees AND then add the cost of this health benefit to the employees W2 at year end, making it taxable to the employee? That could bring in over $500Billion annually that could be used to pay down debt.
Since you are on Medicare, a Government paid for service, I can understand your anger at those that are working and paying taxes getting a benefit for their hours of work
Stop being stupid!
I put in my time working and paying for health insurance over the years until I qualified for Medicare, which I also paid for with a deduction on each paycheck.
Medicare also isn’t a “Government paid for service”. Sheese.
Your Medicare so called premiums were put to immediate use to pay for others that were covered with paying little if anything in just as Social Security was used to cover those that did not pay in. Its just another gimmick used by politicians to buy votes with.
You’re seriously out of touch. That $90k a year net maybe $65-$70k per year.
You are seriously saying they should offer up HALF their take home, and you think that’s reasonable?
I think heath costs is way to high. But my point is that if one reads a little or looks around into health insurance, it is not surprising that it costs this much.
I just went to a XMAS party for a surgery health clinic. All the Doctors and Nurses who worked at the clinic were at the party. Surprisingly enough, in my conversations I came to realize that all the doctors had full time nannies but none of the nurses or health tech did.
But maybe they deserve the salary to hire a nanny. They are more valuable than any hedge fund manager or private equity manger is to society.
Hey Mike Johnson, you’ve proven yourself an impotent and useless tool & fool and now your own party members are working with democrats to at least try to fix the problem. Lol!
Yes they do Mish. You called it right on the money so for that you get a coveted Mishelin star on this post.
This whole fiasco reminds me of the Mcarthy buffoonery. Let’s take a trip down memory lane when House Speaker ended up getting ousted.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/house-republicans-make-a-huge-mess-for-what-replace-mccarthy-with-whom/
It’s always the same circus with repubs, the clowns are just slightly different.
I want an extra star for this November 27 prediction
Q: Johnson says he won’t hold a vote. What’s gonna happen?
A: If Johnson does not agree to hold a vote, all the Democrats and a handful of Republicans will force a vote by means of discharge petition.
Do I get a star also for my prediction that the ENHANCED subsidies would not get extended back in Nov? [lol]
JoJo sorry that is not final yet,
I believe we need to wait for the vote, most did not even think was coming.
Done, you’ve just been upgraded to a 2-star Mishelin rating and our records have been updated. Bask in the glory and keep giving us what we want!
The new monetary paradigm of Strategic Monetary Gifting with a 50% Discount/Rebate at retail sale (the retail sale point of Obamacare is its monthly insurance payment) and its additional stabilizing policy program is the solution. But before you can see that you have to demo it in your mind or on a clay demo table. If you would finally do that Mish you’d see that the new monetary paradigm’s policies are not only the fulfillment of libertarianism’s wished for dreams but the rejuvenation of profit-making economic systems.
If you would please do that…
The sooner the whole system collapses the sooner we get something similar to what every other Industrialized Country has for half what we pay. We need to eliminate employer based coverage as well.
– We need to eliminate employer based coverage as well.
> I agree, but the Unions might get in the way of that…
The unions do not have that much clout … But the insurance companies sure do!
After all they and the drug companies are the only profiteers in the healthcare equation.
Good point, as they do control the healthcare aspect to a large degree, but don’t underestimate the power of Unions. They can force things to change through power of numbers and political pressure, and they have way more support numbers wise, as insurance is looked at as “Profit Takers” by most, and Unions are for the Workers and there Famlies.
My read on the history was that FDR conceived of the idea of government subsidized health care and when he died Truman considered implementing it, however the Big Corps who used employer-based as a means (relatively cheap in those days, was termed “hospitalization”) of attracting workers over small business persuaded Truman to drop the subject.
This 7 year old article on employer health insurance should prove interesting:
Why your employer-sponsored insurance may ultimately not be good for you
September 9, 2019 8.53am EDT
Author – Dana Goldman – Leonard D. Schaeffer Chair and Distinguished Professor of Public Policy, Pharmacy, and Economics, University of Southern California
The Democratic presidential debates, which resume Sept. 12, have highlighted a deep disagreement over the future American health care system. Reflecting the anger of voters over medical costs, Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris argue for installing a Medicare-for-all system. Positioning himself as the moderate, Biden wants to build on the Affordable Care Act by introducing a government-sponsored insurance plan to compete with private plans on the ACA exchanges.
Central to their dispute is a simple, but politically explosive, question: Should we scrap the health coverage that 158 million Americans get through employers? Sanders and Warren say yes; Biden says no.
A Kaiser Family Foundation poll illustrates how important this issue is to Americans. Asked if they favored a national health plan, 56% said yes. Asked if they would still back such a plan if it eliminated private insurance, support dropped almost 20 points, to 37%.
…
Prior to World War II, health insurance was a relatively rare commodity. Shortly after the war broke out, President Franklin Roosevelt reconstituted, via executive order, the National War Labor Board to resolve disputes between workers and management, set price controls and ration scarce commodities. Congress then passed the Stabilization Act of 1942 to stabilize wages and salaries in a rapidly expanding economy accompanying the start of the war.
In such a booming environment, businesses needed some means to attract workers. Companies began to offer non-wage benefits, including health insurance. In 1943, the Internal Revenue Service ruled that the money an employer spends on an employee’s health insurance can be excluded from employee’s taxable income, despite the indisputable fact that employer-provided health insurance is income. This decision didn’t get a lot of attention at the time, because health insurance was so cheap relative to today’s premiums.
But the change was fundamental. This tax exclusion made it cheaper to obtain insurance through a job, rather than in the individual market. It also enshrined employer plans as the nation’s way to pay for health care for the burgeoning middle class. By shielding health insurance premiums from payroll taxes and income taxes, the exclusion created a huge incentive for workers to take part of their salaries in the form of employer-paid premiums rather than cash. This is particularly true today for higher income workers earning up to the maximum taxable earnings for Social Security — up to US$132,900.
All this comes at a big cost to the government. Those missed taxes amounted to $280 billion last year. That tax subsidy is about the same as the mortgage interest deduction, charitable donations and retirement benefit tax exclusion combined, according to the Tax Policy Center.
…
https://theconversation.com/why-your-employer-sponsored-insurance-may-ultimately-not-be-good-for-you-121859
Yep, as I’ve mentioned on this board before, the current health insurance scheme in the US is an accident of history. Basically an unintended consequence of a completely unrelated circumstance rather than a well thought-out policy that makes sense.
It’s high time we came up with a more sensible policy to get the US to universal coverage. We should study what other countries have done best and pick the right model for the US, which may not necessarily be a single-payer system. Breaking the linkage between employers and one’s choice of health coverage should be a major component of such a scheme.
But the reason this has not been done to-date is? Answer this and you’ll then understand why it is unlikely that anything will change in the future, minus some major population revolt.
Mish I still think the number you are quoting might be a bit high or at least unique. I’m going up about $650 on a bronze hdhp, though that is up about $350 based on pre-subsidy increase.
R’s should have extended for 2 years at about 50% of the post covid subsidy boost. Yes people would have paid more but those most in need would have been OK and most others would be squeezed but make it.
The fundamental problem remains that the GOP has long talked about “fixing” health care but has no solution other than HSAs which don’t really address underlying problems.
what is your age – premium went from what to what?
55-65. My premium (full price) will be $845 in 2026 with 0 subsidy. That is up from a subsidized $120 (which I have to pay back in full because I booked too much gain this year). I went back and checked 2021 taxes – My plan full price (bronze hdhp) was $683 and I had a $95 subsidy. Plan full price in 2024 was $740 (364 subsidized which I again paid back about 85% because trading income was higher). This is in the the New England region
as typical
the opposite of Progress is Congress
Kind of a tell-tale comment from Johnson that doing an end-around the majority part is a bad way to make law in his opinion. It’s actually a good way to make law. Having members that move lock step with leadership regardless of the needs of their own constituency is the bad way for laws to be pursued. We need more independent thought and action, not less.
If the majority party is supposed to be some kind of monolith with a single opinion, you don’t need 218 of them. One would suffice.
Especially funny because a majority is needed for the discharge petition. No-one is going around the majority; Silly Johnson simply is on the side of the minority. And likes to prentend this is not so.
It doesn’t matter because Trump will veto the bill. It’s highly doubtful it would pass the Senate to get on Trumps desk.
If there is a compromise I guarantee you Trump would sign it.
Please note Trump himself said extension may be necessary
Of course Trump will sign it (even though he willl simultaneously blame everyone else) because he knows that such an increase in costs for so many people means the republican majorities in both houses will disappear in the mid terms and that means impeachment. Note to Trumpists: Chaos merchants create chaos…not more freedom.
I don’t think he cares about being impeached. He does care about losing the house and senate for his MAGA’s and Oligarchs.
Trump will sign it. He is presently concerned about the public’s opinion.
Trump actually floated the idea of extending the subsidies a few weeks ago himself but it was shot down by Republican “leadership”